Gold has traded between $1,263 and $1,269 so far today…as of 11:20 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $3 an ounce at $1,267…Silver is flat at $17.22…Copper is up 2 pennies at $2.59…Nickel has climbed 6 cents to $4.26…Crude Oil is 39 cents higher at $49.36 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-fifth of a point to 98.99…
Gold showed resilience this week by holding support in the $1,260’s and at its 200-day moving average (SMA), but downside potential ($1,230’s) could certainly be tested next week as the market faces hurdles such as a Fed meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday) and employment numbers Friday…in addition, May has generally been Gold’s worst-performing month of the year going back a couple of decades…on the positive side, underlying technical support is very strong from the $1,230’s to the $1,260’s, Asian demand has picked up on the pullback from the recent yearly high, and ETF buying remains consistent…in addition, of course, the North Korea threat tops a list of multiple geopolitical problems which continue to provide safe-haven support for bullion…
Familiar Theme – U.S. Growth Slows During Q1
U.S. economic output failed to match the surging confidence expressed by consumers and businesses since November’s elections…for Q1, GDP growth at 0.7% came in well below the long-term trend…this has become common with first quarters in recent years, raising questions about the Commerce Department’s seasonal adjustment methods…
Oil Update
A rough month for Crude Oil but key technical support is holding…most analysts polled by Reuters expect the deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries struck in December to be extended to the end of this year, but that bullish dynamic has been offset by a multitude of factors including increased U.S. production, lackluster gasoline demand and an overall stubborn global supply glut…the restart this week of 2 Libyan Oilfields didn’t help matters…Libyan Crude production stood at 491,000 bpd yesterday, but the OPEC member was targeting 800,000 bpd soon and 1 million to 1.1 million bpd by August…
The technical picture for WTIC trading is a little easier to follow than the sometimes confusing fundamental factors…there’s a consistent pattern on this 15-month weekly chart in terms of an uptrend line that started just over a year ago…it’s now cutting through the $48 area, so that’s quite an important level that Crude can’t afford to breach…the uptrend line, also accompanied by an inverted head-and-shoulders bottom, has been successfully tested on multiple occasions since late last year…
The 200-day SMA has flattened out at $49.40 while the declining 50-day, currently $50.77, is providing resistance…as long as Crude doesn’t breach its uptrend line with a confirmed breakdown, a strong case exists for a move to new highs during the 2nd half of the year when the supply glut is expected to ease considerably…
In Today’s Morning Musings….
1. Updates on half a dozen juniors in midst of important developments…
2. Not pools, but an “ocean” of Nickel sulphides around Nickel Mountain?…
3. Two BMR U.S. tech favorites surge this week…
4. Daniel’s Den – Friday Footnotes, updates on 10 stocks…
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GOOD TO SEE MONTHEND, TAX YEAREND,ETC FINISHED! LET’S START MAY OFF ON A BANG. I LIKED THE WAY THE VENTURE BEHAVED ON FRIDAY WITH NEW BIDS COMING INTO CPO/CSR/GGM,ETC. ALL LOOKED ALOT HEALTHIER.
Comment by STEVEN1 — April 29, 2017 @ 1:39 pm