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May 18, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is enjoying a positive day…through the recent turbulence, Gold has managed to hold support at its 30-day moving average which it has held since the beginning of February…as of 8:50 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $11 an ounce at $1,498…Silver has jumped $1.36 to $35.27 while crude oil has firmed up to $99.25, a gain of $2.34…the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 75.27…the latest Bank of America Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey shows there is real concern about the possibility of a slowdown in global economic growth, and we believe that’s also the message the CDNX has been giving over the past couple of months…the survey found just 41% of managers believe the global economy will expand while 31% see a pullback…the remaining 28% are either unsure or see little growth…that’s a huge drop from earlier this year…the results also show less confidence among institutional investors in corporate profits…though some 69% of companies in the S & P 500 have posted better than expected earnings from the first quarter, the stock market has sputtered and investor confidence appears to have waned significantly…since touching 2400 April 11, the Venture Exchange has dropped a whopping 18% over 26 trading sessions…interestingly, over the same period, the Dow has actually gained a few points, the TSX is off 6% while Gold is essentially unchanged…this kind of unusual divergence between the CDNX and the broader markets is a warning that investors need to pay attention to…the overall CDNX bull market remains intact but what the Index is telling us – remember, the Venture Exchange is an extremely reliable leading indicator of future activity in the markets and even the global economy – is that there’s trouble ahead in the broader markets, perhaps not immediately but within a month or two…our theory is that this will be related to debt issues and an economic slowdown…Gold should continue to perform well in that environment…there will certainly be trading opportunities in the market and we’ll be focusing more than ever on companies with strong balance sheets, outstanding discovery potential, and quality management determined to aggressively build shareholder value…markets are in the green today with the CDNX up 24 points to 1993…one of the volume leaders on the Venture so far today is iSign Media Solutions (ISD, TSX-V) which is up 5.5 pennies to 49.5 cents…our focus of course at BMR is almost exclusively on speculative junior Gold stocks but we believe ISD, a company specializing in interactive marketing technologies and strategies, is worthy of our readers’ due diligence and consideration…ISD is certainly in a sphere that’s attracting significant and growing investor interest…technically, the stock is looking strong as outlined in John’s chart…

Back to the Gold plays…Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V), formerly Kodiak Exploration, continues to deliver solid results from its 100% owned Magino Mine Gold Project in Ontario…results released this morning included 471 metres grading 0.71 g/t Au…PDG, which is up 4 pennies at the moment at 63 cents, has been trading this month between its declining 20-day SMA, currently 67 cents, and its rising 50-day SMA which is currently 56 cents…it’s off from its high of 81 cents May 2…indicated and inferred resources at Magino total approximately 2.5 million ounces…PDG’s market cap is $119 million…that’s about double the market cap of Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) which is in the process of completing its initial 43-101 for the LONG Bars Zone of the Granada Gold Property…that 43-101 could turn out to be very comparable to the resources outlined so far at Magino…GBB is unchanged this morning at 37 cents…Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V), which appears to be developing a 5 million+ ounce deposit at its Springpole Project in Ontario, is up 11 cents at $3.05…it appears to have solid support around the $3 level…Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) is quiet so far today, down half a penny at 15.5 cents…we expect some fireworks out of Currie Rose’s Sekenke Project in the prolific Lake Victoria Greenstone Belt of Tanzania…drilling is expected to commence there in the near future as the rainy season there draws to a close…Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) touched its 200-day rising SMA this morning at 45 cents for the first time since its big move began last fall…AGE is off 3 pennies at 46 cents on nearly 500,000 shares…

13 Comments

  1. I bought ISD at .30 last month and sold at .60 – still watching it. The techs have been moving since February. Good call on ISD Jon. I think it will still do very well. Also, you may want to look at INT and SCG

    Comment by david — May 18, 2011 @ 8:27 am

  2. To the poster from yesterday that was asking about Tony Rottenburg and his involvement with zoo.h, Zoolander… Stay AWAY from ANYTHING thatRottenburg is involved in, PERIOD!! Tony adds NOTHING of VALUE to ANY company. ya ya ya BMR will CONTINUALLY remind you that when VGN is at the lows to buy… well DUH!!! Thats the same with ANY company. Sure VGN is only trading at cash value, but what good would it do to buy IF VGN doesn’t act on ANY of the STATED PROMISES that informed share holders about?? Hugh, buy yourself a good quality Potash jr and you will be a happy man, you will ONLY SUFFER and grow old waiting for Rottenburg to create ANY value for you.

    Comment by john — May 18, 2011 @ 8:38 am

  3. Sorry, forgot to mention that if VGN is ONLY trading at cash value ( no disagreement there) and it is a NO BRAINER at these levels, why aren’t people rushing to snap up the shares at .175??? The volume on VGN is PATHETIC to say the least!! Perhaps people are just FUD UP with all Rottenburgs FAILED and EMPTY promises to believe him anymore?? Just a quick question, will Rottenburg ” unlock ” the value in VGN the same way he did with SFF??? Lets see, .77 and now?? Oh ya, thats right, .23. The BEST thing for VGN is for Rottenburg to STEP DOWN there too and bring in someone with REAL business accumen.

    Comment by john — May 18, 2011 @ 9:12 am

  4. Why weren’t people rushing to buy VGN at 12 cents last year? Because that’s how the markets work, Johnny…as the saying goes, you buy on weakness and sell into strength. For an investor focused on the long-term, VGN does present excellent value at current levels. It’s just a waiting game.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 18, 2011 @ 9:58 am

  5. Thanks for all the comments good and bad – I am a holder of VGN and I am not selling, I bought too high when it was in the 30s but I agree with BMRs view on this one. I think Tony can deliver too and patience is required. However I am frustrated with the lack of news and lack of action. But look at all the quality juniors and explorers out there they are all on the floor in this market. Miners are getting destroyed across the board. However I think once the HUI and CDNX turns around on the back of QE3 then we are off to races. Now and the next couple of months will be a great time to buy more IMO. GBB is down over 50% so what gives, its been risk-off in the markets as QE2 unwinds.

    Comment by Hugh — May 18, 2011 @ 11:11 am

  6. How many jr’s EARN over $ 100,000 a month?? Not too many. Tony Rottenburg is just SUCKING VGN for all he can, perhaps when the feilds get depleted of oil he MIGHT act. Oh look, maybe Rottenburg is watching, the share price moved up on 1000 shares…LOL… Hugh, you will need the patience of jesus before you see .30’s again.

    Comment by john — May 18, 2011 @ 11:18 am

  7. I agree with David, this year the tech stocks have given good returns, uranium earlier in the year and potash every now and then basically anything but precious metals! However, I would caution to be very careful with INT.V – maybe good to day trade but questionable as a long term hold as it has been under huge selling pressure for several weeks and the endless news releases no longer have a positive impact – the euphoria has gone. Remember this is the CDNX and stock movements are manipulated down as well as up. Do your due diligence before you invest in any stock. Maybe BMR could consider diversifying the portfolio so that it is not confined to one sector – it’s just too risky as this year has borne out? Thanks 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — May 18, 2011 @ 3:30 pm

  8. Andrew, it never hurts to diversify a little and we are looking at options in terms of expanding coverage to a limited extent for now beyond just the junior golds…ISD is an intriguing play…there is plenty of speculative money out there and it’s always looking for a home…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 18, 2011 @ 5:17 pm

  9. andrew, I agree with you on being cautious with INT. – I got in low and am playing it for this weekend’s promotion. I don’t hold anything long term. Good luck to all on this board. Fall of this year and next year will be steller in the metals.

    Comment by david — May 18, 2011 @ 8:03 pm

  10. ISD appears very promising and pretty low considering it’s market cap and outstanding shares-float.
    They’ve recently announced some major names and partners, BroadSign, Aopen and IBM. I think they are just beginning to roll out and should be a good story to watch from here.
    As for INT, can’t really see beyond the endless hype of it, no patents, no major partnerships….

    Comment by Steve — May 19, 2011 @ 2:07 am

  11. andrew i think you should do some dd before spouting off that int has been under selling pressure last few weeks and that the nrs are having no impact anymore. just minor dd would tell you that int is being played by the mms right now. it has been the best performer on the venture this year buddy and there is a reason for that.

    Comment by john — May 19, 2011 @ 3:40 am

  12. John, it’s inconsequential why there is such a huge sell imbalance on INT – the fact is that it’s there and is a signal to be cautious – that’s all. Thought I had put it in unbiased language. DD on Market Depth will clearly show the imbalance. I hold INT, it’s been a great play. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — May 19, 2011 @ 10:46 am

  13. understand INT’s technology …. LinkedIn and Facebook can use it.. as will Iphone. BBerry et al…. we dont know what patenets are pending if any.. but they will be on many ‘social network’ companies radar!!

    Comment by Jeremy — May 19, 2011 @ 6:36 pm

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