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June 20, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,532 and $1,548 so far today…as of 8:05 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $2 an ounce at $1,538…Silver is 12 cents lower at $35.78…crude oil, which got hit hard last week, is off 16 cents at $92.85 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down one-fifth of a point at 74.98…reports are that physical demand for Gold is very strong at the moment with a lot of buying on the dips which is helping to put a floor on the price…the more investors get comfortable with the psychologically important $1,500 level, the better…this is also not the time of the year when one would normally expect strong physical demand, so that certainly bodes well for the third and fourth quarters of this year when a major breakout could potentially occur…the CME Group is decreasing the margin requirements for Gold futures by 10% as of the close of business today…the initial margin to open new speculative positions will decline by nearly $700 on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange…CME Group said the changes are part of the “normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage”…Europe’s finance ministers unexpectedly put off approval today of the next installment of aid to debt-laden Greece, delaying the decision until next month and demanding that the Greek Parliament first approve spending cuts and financial reforms that include a large-scale privatization program…everything boils down to whether Greece is prepared to take the additional fiscal medicine it needs to…the Greek tragedy is a classic example of what happens when government is allowed to run amok, spending gets out of control and citizens develop a sense of entitlement…contrast that with the situation in Texas…amazingly, the Lone Star state has produced 48% – yes, nearly half – of the net jobs created in the United States since the recovery began in 2009…that fact comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, using non-farm payroll data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and its own analysis…from June, 2009, through April 2011, the country as a whole added 496,000 jobs and the Dallas Fed says that 237,000 of them were in Texas…it’s a big state, of course, but only 8% of the U.S. workforce lives there…there are a multitude of reasons for that stunning job growth in Texas via-a-vis the rest of the U.S., including a sharp recovery in the oil and gas sector, but one has to credit the state’s pro-growth policies…a small government with no state income tax, no tax increases of any kind, and limits on regulations and lawsuits…market participants will be focusing intensely on every word of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke when he speaks Wednesday at a news conference following the FMOC meeting which begins tomorrow…economists expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged at 0.25%, and that could be the case for an extended period…the CDNX is off 5 points at 1893…as we’ve mentioned, important market bottoms have occurred repeatedly over the last decade slightly below the CDNX’s 300-day moving average…we’re keeping a close eye on Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)  which has been looking really solid lately…AGE has outperformed the Venture Exchange this year (AGE is up 10% while the CDNX is off 17%) and we expect AGE will continue to outperform the market given its quality portfolio of projects and the success the company is having with some of them…last Thursday, AGE reported impressive initial drill results from its Lapaska Gold Property near Val d’Or that was optioned to Mazorro Resources (MZO, TSX-V) late last year…near-surface assays included 1 g/t Au over 103.4 metres (LP-11-16) and 1.2 g/t Au over 156.9 metres (LP-11-17) as well as impressive longer lower grade intervals such as 245.5 metres of 0.80 g/t Au…Lapaska contains three significant Gold-bearing zones and a significant portion of the property has been under-explored or not even drill-tested…Mazorro, which we mentioned first thing Thursday after results came out, rocketed from the low 20’s to a closing price of 38 cents Friday (it’s higher again this morning) while AGE has moved up just slightly…however, Lapaska gives AGE considerable upside potential that the market in our view hasn’t fully taken into account…Adventure Gold will still end up with a 30% interest in this project, assuming Mazorro ultimately exercises its right to acquire 70%…that means AGE would receive a total of $2,250,000 in cash from Mazarro as well as 3 million shares of MZO…in addition, MZO will have to incur exploration expenditures on the property totaling $7.7 million…AGE won’t be diluted through the exploration process but Mazorro will…it’s a favorable deal for Adventure Gold which will remain operator of the project through the first two option stages (totaling six years unless the parties agree to reduce that period)…in addition to Lapaska, Adventure Gold is enjoying great success with its 100%-owned Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property also near Val d’Or…a 5,000 metre Phase 2 drill program is underway at that property which has open-pit as well as underground potential…given results to date, including 4.8 g/t Au over 33.1 metres near-surface as reported May 31, we wouldn’t be surprised if Pascalis-Colombiere was garnering interest from Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which is aggressively trying to build its production profile…Pascalis-Colombiere, which is adjacent to Richmont’s Beaufor Mine, encompasses the former L.C. Beliveau Mine which produced 167,000 ounces of Gold for Cambior between 1989 and 1993…AGE has three other projects that are active – Timmins West where Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) is conducting deep drilling on the Meunier-144 Property (this could be huge for AGE if LSG hits), the Dubuisson Property where Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) is currently drilling with an option to earn a 51% interest from AGE, and of course Granada where AGE holds some strategic ground in the LONG Bars Zone Eastern Extension as well as west and south of historical producing areas at Granada and Gold Bullion Development’s (GBB, TSX-V) Preliminary Block Model…technically, Adventure Gold has enjoyed tremendous support from its 200-day rising moving average (SMA) and a close above resistance at the 50-day SMA would be another bullish sign as John points out in the chart below…

As of 8:05 Pacific, Adventure Gold is up 2 pennies at 57 cents…Mazorro Resources gapped up to 43.5 cents, climbed as high as 45 cents, and pulled back as low as 39 cents…it’s rallying again and is currently up 7 cents at 45 cents…Gold Bullion Development has traded within its 300-day and 500-day moving averages for more than three months, and it’s once again at the 500-day “sweet spot”…technical indicators (Stochastics, Chaikin Money Flow) show the stock is oversold, so a rebound should be expected sometime this week…the fundamentals remain strong with this play…GBB is unchanged at 38.5 cents on light volume…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) staged a reversal Friday and is unchanged at 23 cents to start the week…the outlook for VGD has improved considerably with the company making the Joutel Property its exploration priority…Joutel is a former significant producer (three separate zones were mined by Agnico-Eagle between the early 1970’s and the early 1990’s) and VGD is already finalizing high priority drill targets with Agnico-Eagle which is their joint venture partner on this project…groundwork begins early next month, followed soon thereafter by a major drill program which is expected to continue through the balance of the year…readers should check out an excellent article by Frank Holmes posted Friday night (click on “Investor Alert” at www.usfunds.com for the article, “Will Gold Equity Investors Strike Gold“)  which focuses on the recent under-performance of Gold stocks vs. the Gold price…Holmes paints a very clear picture of that situation and argues now is one of the best times ever to hold positions in quality Gold mining stocks…while we focus mostly on speculative juniors at BMR, we’re increasingly targeting overlooked small to medium sized producers who are significantly growing their earnings and production profiles…one classic example is Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which is operating in an area we’re very familiar with – northwest Quebec…Richmont closed Friday at $6.35 where it’s trading at this morning…it has all-category 43-101 reserves and resources of 2.5 million ounces, so its market cap of $200 million puts a value of just $80 per ounce on Gold in the ground…the company recorded earnings of 28 cents per share in Q1 and will have another solid quarter April-June thanks to increased production (a 10 to 15% jump we suspect) and a higher Gold price…there is a strong exploration component to Richmont as well with developments at Wasamac and elsewhere in that prolific area of northwest Quebec – the company is drilling aggressively and producing excellent results…RIC is technically oversold – it’s down significantly from its all-time high of $9.75 just six weeks ago – but its chart is very healthy overall with rising 100, 200 and 300-day moving averages…Richmont is truly a keeper for the long haul in this Gold bull market of a lifetime. So it’s critical right now to stay focused on the “Big Picture” – there are some great opportunities in this market for patient investors, and of course for traders too.

4 Comments

  1. BMR

    I know you guys are not following Evolving Gold EVG, however it appears to be way oversold and they came out with some pretty good drill results today, Quentin Hennigh is the geologist same as Gold Canyon GCU, would love to see a chart on EVG from you guys, at 62 cents seems like the bottom is in to me.
    Thanks

    Comment by GREG — June 20, 2011 @ 9:14 am

  2. Hi bmr ,
    i have as many noticed major manipulation in gbb’s s-p over the last few months , eversince it droped back from 70c,
    given the fact that osk just steped beside them with thg ( who hasn’t drillled adanac) the interest is realy there for gbb , the multi million oz 43-101 coming soon, the castle spin off ..It seems kind of odd that it trades where it does..Lack of volume on the buy side makes it easy for them to bring it down..Cross trades between houses etc.. Is it possible some major is behind this .?. Like Osisssssko..Playing the market maker driving s-p to 200-500dma for a an easy buyout under a buck ? .. If how legal is it for one to do so ?.. if so..

    Comment by dude — June 20, 2011 @ 9:22 am

  3. kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/19_KWN_Special__Jim_Sinclair_%26_Dan_Norcini.html

    Comment by Hugh — June 20, 2011 @ 1:19 pm

  4. Thanks, Hugh – very interesting broadcast.

    Comment by Andrew — June 20, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

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