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August 11, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has pulled back after breaching the $1,800 level for the first time ever yesterday…as of 7:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $30 an ounce at $1,765…it has been as low as $1,757 this morning…Silver is $1.17 lower at $38.12, Copper has gained a dime to $4.02, Crude Oil is off 50 cents at $82.39 while the U.S. Dollar Index has declined slightly to 74.77…Spot Gold climbed as high as $1,814 yesterday before encountering some profit-taking in part due to the announcement that the CME Group is raising margin requirements by 22.2% for trading Gold futures on the Comex Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange…of course this applies to both long and short positions…there’s no question that Gold is overextended technically at the moment but it’s in a “Perfect Storm” that could last for many more months, so any pullbacks like we’re seeing now are likely to be short-lived and greeted by hungry buyers which will limit Gold’s downside…a big part of what’s going on here is that the market has lost confidence in governments across the board (not just the United States where President Obama has been incapable of providing any economic leadership)…there was a great quote on Gold in the Globe and Mail this morning from Fred Sturm, chief global strategist at Mackenzie Financial, who stated, “Gold is the best address in a bad neighborhood”…Sturm is a veteran resource fund manager and believes the yellow metal could be “on the cusp” of a spectacular rally given concerns about U.S. and euro zone debt levels…”If the financial stress continues, we could enter into that phase soon” when Gold goes through a parabolic spike like the Nasdaq did in 1999 and early 2000…”All currencies are losing value around the world, and Gold is the only effective currency that is gaining valuee”, he told the Globe and Mail…noted market historian Don Coxe belives the Gold rally is primarily driven by fear, not greed…”Gold is gradually becoming recognized as a necessary investment for those with wealth to conserve who who do not assume that the political classes in the U.S. and Europe will display sustained statesmanship”…despite rising prices, precious metals demand in India, the world’s biggest consumer of bullion, continues to soar…jewelry manufacturers note that Gold is likely to see further increased demand with the festival and wedding season around the corner….it has been a wild month of August in the markets…through yesterday the Dow is down 12% for the month, the Nasdaq has fallen 13.6%, the TSX has fallen just 6% while the CDNX has declined 11.5%…Gold, meanwhile, has gained 10% after closing July at $1,627…French President Nicolas Sarkozy has given his finance and budget ministers one week to come up with new measures to cut a crippling debt burden as concerns mount over prospects for growth and the country’s ability to meet its deficit reduction targets…three main credit rating agencies have reaffirmed the country’s triple-A status but many investors are concerned that Europe’s debt crisis could spread to France, the region’s second-largest economy…below is a chart on the “Shadow Gold Price” from www.usfunds.com (calculated by QB Asset Management) that all Gold bulls will love…according to Erste Research, “QB Asset Management’s “Shadow Gold Price (SGP) divides the U.S. monetary base by U.S. official Gold holdings, the same formula actually used during the Bretton Woods regime to fix the exchange value of the dollar at $35 U.S. per ounce…the SPG would be the theoretical price of Gold today were the Fed to depreciate the U.S. Dollar to a level that would cover systemic bank liabilities…the current Shadow Gold Price would just under $10,000 U.S., more than five times what Gold is trading at right now…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX-V), one of our favorite smaller producers, got a strong write-up from National Bank yesterday through its Daily Bulletin…NB reiterated its “outperform” rating for RIC and noted that second quarter earnings (16 cents per share) exceeded their estimate…”We continue to view Wasamac and Monique to be the biggest areas of upside for Richmont“…at BMR, we believe Wasamac is one of the best-kept secrets along the Cadillac Trend and could turn out to be a multi-million ounce deposit that dramatically transforms Richmont into a much bigger producer…Richmont currently has five rigs at Wasamac in an effort to upgrade and expand resources…also active in the immediate area with three drill rigs is Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V)…we are very bullish on VGD given its Wasamac-area plays that were optioned from Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) last December…VGD will also be going to work soon on its very promising Joutel Property…the company has partnered with Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) on that project which is 150 kilometres north of Rouyn-Noranda…Richmont hit $9.02 in early trading but is currently off 14 cents at $8.62 with the decline in the TSX Gold Index…VGD closed at its rising 50-day SMA of 27 cents yesterday and continues to look solid from a technical perspective…the CDNX appears to have stabilized after dropping as low as 1676, an important support area, on Monday…the Index jumped 41 points yesterday, albeit on relatively light volume, to close at 1752…through the first 30 minutes of trading this morning, the CDNX is up another 3 points at 1755…exploration season is in full swing and a tsunami of drill results is expected over the next couple of months and that, combined with the possibility of even higher Gold prices, has the potential of turning the CDNX around in a hurry…global events of course will have a major impact on the CDNX but there’s nothing like a major discovery to get investors excited…in North America, key areas to keep an eye on are the Yukon, northern British Colombia, northwest Quebec, and the western United States…Kaminak Gold’s (KAM, TSX-V) Coffee Project in the White Gold District is looking strong and the stock rocketed back to the $4 level yesterday after finding support near its rising 200-day moving average (SMA)…the bounce-back in Kaminak, Atac Resources (ATAC, TSX-V) and other plays in the Yukon illustrates the keen interest in this region and its huge upside exploration potential given results to date and the record amount of money that’s going into the ground there…we haven’t mentioned Goldex Resources (GDX, TSX-V) yet this month…John continues to like what he sees in the stock technically…it closed up a penny-and-a-half yesterday at 8.5 cents where it’s trading so far this morning…volume is still strong with this play and assay results are pending from the recently completed drill program at the company’s El Pato Property in Guatemala…Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V) found support at its rising 300-day moving average (SMA) Monday and looks very attractive in the low-to-mid-40’s…the company released more encouraging drill results August 4…a full feasibility study for the proposed open-pit project at Magino is scheduled for early next year…BMR is arranging a site visit to check out Adventure Gold’s (AGE, TSX-V) promising Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…a 43-101 is in the works for this former producer which could draw the interest of bigger companies in the area…AGE dropped as low as 40.5 cents Tuesday…it’s currently up a penny at 44 cents…this is a well-managed company with an impressive pipeline of projects led by Pascalis-Colombiere…

18 Comments

  1. I just got off the phone moments ago with Tony regarding the delay in releasing the news on the 2 Viking oil pool wells in Provost, as the results were to be released already. I was told that due to the MORE than expected barrels per day that are flowig, they wanted to be certain, and re-test the well, which they have completed, and are re-appraising. The excitement in his voice was reather telling, like a kid on his 1st date. I also asked about the abnormal volume last week and if HE was buying, I was told that I should check sedar in the next week and see for myself!! I managed to pick up another 8000 on Tuesday for .17 because if the boss is BUYING right after the re-test of the wells, the NEWS MUST BE GREAT and will be released soon. Also, I checked on sedar and tony has over 4.57 million shares and over 3.25 million options to purchase at .30 hhhmmmmm.

    Comment by john — August 11, 2011 @ 6:49 am

  2. Finally, all indices in the GREEN, let’s hope we build on the Venture this afternoon.
    I notice Italy & Spain will be banning short trading, effective after close of market
    today, good ! Way to go Johnny, the pressure is on…………. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 11, 2011 @ 6:54 am

  3. That is interesting, Bert re Italy and Spain banning short trading. Would be good if the DAX and Venture followed suit. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — August 11, 2011 @ 7:00 am

  4. Bert, did Tony forward the emails that he and I exchanged to you? VERY exciting times ahead for VGN.

    Comment by john — August 11, 2011 @ 7:15 am

  5. I was also wondering if BMR had ever heard of a company called Beatrix Ventures? BXV.v? They seem to have some interesting Gold properties in Ontario and Nova Scotia? I am just starting my DD on Beatrix, so not invested yet. Any thoughts, comments would be appreciated.

    Comment by john — August 11, 2011 @ 7:22 am

  6. Is it short trading or naked short trading??? these ‘investment houses’ have made their own rules for them to max the amount of dough they can make… puke!!!
    me thinks we are in for quite a ride gents and gals!!

    Comment by Jeremy — August 11, 2011 @ 7:24 am

  7. Johnny – Bert, did Tony forward the emails that he and I exchanged to you? VERY exciting times ahead for VGN.

    Bert – What’s your game Johnny ? why would he send personal stuff to
    me, especially since i don’t even know the guy. I notice VGN is doing
    well today, volume zilch. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 11, 2011 @ 9:10 am

  8. News out on VGD.

    Comment by Bert — August 11, 2011 @ 10:17 am

  9. Visible Gold Mines discovers gold mineralization at Wasa Creek Property assay results pending for 6 of 7 holes completed
    ROUYN-NORANDA, QC, Aug. 11, 2011 /CNW Telbec/ – Visible Gold Mines Inc. (TSXV: VGD) (Frankfurt: 3V4) is pleased to report that assay results from the first hole drilled at Visible Gold Mines’ optioned Wasa Creek Property confirm the potential for a new gold discovery over this previously unexplored ground just a few kilometres west of Richmont Mines’ Wasamac deposit near Rouyn-Noranda in northwest Quebec.  A total of seven holes have been completed to date with results still to come for six of those holes.
    Hole LBWC-11-03, collared 450 metres north of the Cadillac Fault in a flat-lying area where virtually no historical drilling has ever occurred, intersected several zones of significant gold mineralization including an intensely altered 16.4-metre shear zone from 541.60 to 558 metres with gold in disseminated pyrite.  It was drilled toward the south to a vertical depth of 650 metres. The hole also featured many sections of anomalous gold mineralization.
    LBWC-11-04, collared 150 metres directly west of LBWC-11-03, showed an alteration style very similar to that observed in LBWC-11-03.  The company is eagerly anticipating assays for LBWC-11-04.
    Drill core for holes LBWC-11-06 and LBWC-11-09, collared 750 metres north and 300 metres southeast of LBWC-11-03, respectively, is being logged and will soon be sent for assaying.
    Two drill rigs are now concentrating on this discovery area with step-out holes being drilled at 50-metre intervals east, west and north of LBWC-11-03 in order to confirm the direction and dip of these gold zones.  Drilling will also test for potential parallel zones over a 1.5-kilometre north-to-south stretch to the east of LBWC-11-03, crossing the Cadillac Fault.

    Comment by Andrew — August 11, 2011 @ 10:23 am

  10. This is just the beginning for vgd. I have a good feeling for this stock.

    Comment by Kalkan — August 11, 2011 @ 10:53 am

  11. Jon, is that a good result if it’s the best hole from Wasa Creek for VGD? Would reading between the lines suggest that two holes (LBWC-11-06 and LBWC-11-09)were not significant? Two drill rigs now, so I guess the third is on its way to Joutel but perhaps it also indicates they like the prospects at Wasa Creek and/or Wildcat Zone? I like the way Martin Dallaire writes the news releases – well constructed, easy to read, concise and informative!

    Comment by Andrew — August 11, 2011 @ 10:56 am

  12. Hi Andrew, this looks really, really good….VGD has hit a shear zone which is highly significant….this was their very first hole……the Wasa East situation looks very intriguing as well…….Wasamac is heating up – this has legs….preparing a report….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 11, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  13. Thank you very much, Jon.

    Comment by Andrew — August 11, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  14. Jon – how does this or how SHOULD this affect CQX if at all…??? thanks in advance

    Comment by Jeremy — August 11, 2011 @ 12:03 pm

  15. GBB is really quiet today… shame …. with 2 cents up with a low low volume…. people are not interested to invest in this one now… maybe later. SFF has a good jump at the beginning but weakened at the end with only 1.5 cents up. As i mentioned before, there are a lot of selling pressure at 24 cents range…. It reached 26 cents at one point. AGE has shown some movements but this stock does not have a lot of volume…. My prediction is … it will go back to the mid 50s. BER closed at 12.5 cents and there are still room to go up to 15 cents range… . In my opinion, the result of the test is not bad but the bad thing is their mathematical error which dragged them down to original price before announcement. In 2-3 months time, it can go to the thirties… not a problem. Volume will increase for sure. SD has good support at 3.5 cents…. one day you have a buy lot at 3.5 cents and another day with 3.5 at sell … we are waiting for news to come out…. you will not see this price again soon…. it will go to 8 cents or more… my six sense is correct. NAR …. quiet… I am collecting but wait for the dump at 16 cents…. I am holding portfolio in GBB, SD, NAR, AGE and BER…. Let’s see what will happen tomorrow….

    Comment by Theodore — August 11, 2011 @ 12:20 pm

  16. If i had sold the gold in my teeth after i posted last night, i would have saved $30.00 or more.

    VGD looked good at the end, i feel the price will remain up, until the results of the 6 holes
    are released. Good luck ! R !

    Comment by Bert — August 11, 2011 @ 12:32 pm

  17. Congratulations to those who bought VGD… I don’t have any but I like to see this kind of happening…. BMR… great platform for us.

    Comment by Theodore — August 11, 2011 @ 4:19 pm

  18. Theodore

    Your post should be an eye opener. Not many would congratulate others for being on the
    right side of a stock, in particular, since you don’t have a position. Congratulations
    to you are also in order, we need more of this.

    The overseas market are green tonight & i have a good feeling about tomorrow’s trading.
    We are getting there, as we continue to get bits & pieces of good news from the U.S.
    The retail news in the a.m. will be important. Good night ! R !

    Comment by Bert — August 11, 2011 @ 4:32 pm

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