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August 15, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has stabilized after correcting Thursday and Friday…the yellow metal has traded in a range between $1,731 and $1,748 today after closing at $1,746 Friday…as of 9:00 am Pacific, Gold is now unchanged at $1,746…Silver is up 24 cents at $39.31, Copper is up a penny at $4.02, Crude Oil is $1.35 higher at $86.73 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off two-thirds of a point at 73.84…more on Gold in a moment…a gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed the sector contracted for the third month in a row in August, as new orders fell to their lowest level since November, 2010, according to a report today from the New York Federal Reserve…the New York Fed’s “Empire State” general business conditions index fell to negative 7.72 from negative 3.76 the month before…economists polled by Reuters had expected a reading of zero…the survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions…the loss of market confidence in economic leadership in key countries like the United States and Europe coupled with a fragile economic recovery have pushed markets into a new dangerĀ  zone, something that policymakers have to take seriously, the head of the World Bank said yesterday in a report from Reuters…speaking at the Asia Society dinner in Sydney, Robert Zoellick also said the global economy was going through a multi-speed recovery with developing countries now the source of growth and opportunity…”What’s happened in the past couple of weeks is there is a convergence of some events in Europe and the United States that has led many market participants to lose confidence in economic leadership of some of the key countries,” Zoellick stated…”I think those events combined with some of the other fragilities in the nature of recovery have pushed us into a new danger zone. I don’t say those words lightly … so that policymakers recognise and take it seriously for what it is”…Zoellick said the process of dealing with the sovereign debt problem and some of theĀ  ompetitive issues in the euro zone have tended to be done “a day late”, leaving markets worried that authorities may not be ahead of the problem or moving in the right direction…John has a very interesting chart this morning that shows the relationship between the Volatility Index (VIX) and Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar…Gold has unquestionably taken over from the greenback as a safe haven…this is in sharp contrast to the situation in 2008 when traders and investors flocked to the U.S. Dollar during the Market Crash…”Fear Funds” are also now all going to Gold and not Silver, though that’s not to suggest Silver won’t perform well in the months ahead…the chart paints a very revealing picture of how Gold has really started to assert itself as the world’s “ultimate currency” and how the United States has lost economic leadership under President Obama…

It’s interesting to point out that before last Monday, the VIX closed above the 40 level only five times since 1995, and in all but one occurrence the Dow and S&P were at higher levels just three months later…the exception is 2008, when the VIX passed 40 on its way to 90 and remained elevated for months during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression…the CDNX is up 7 points at 1824 on light volume so far today…the next apparent area of resistance is in the 1860’s as John pointed out in his updated CDNX chart over the weekend…one can’t help but be impressed with how Carlos Lopez is building Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) and he’s also putting his money where his mouth is…last Thursday, the new President and CEO announced the hiring of Giovanny Oritz as the company’s Colombian general manager (he was formerly the exploration manager for the the Angostura Project)…a second drill rig has been added at Miraflores and drilling continues at Dos Quebradas…Lopez has also been a strong buyer of Seafield stock on the open market…he purchased another 500,000 shares last Monday during the CDNX‘s 129-point plunge…Seafield is up half a penny this morning to 27 cents…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) is one of our favorites going into September given how its Lucky Break and Joutel Projects are coming together…VGD has a good “feel” to it right now and with more drill results imminent from Wasa Creek, where VGD appears to have found some favorable geology, this stock has the potential of accelerating rapidly…new discoveries are what makes this industry so exciting and VGD has one of the best geologists in the business in Robert Sansfacon who was involved in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) massive Canadian Malartic strategy…we’re putting our faith in Sansfacon and his capable team that that they are going to deliver for VGD which is currently unchanged at 34.5 cents…Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) is up 22 cents to $9.04…Richmont is coming out soon with an update on its drilling progress at Wasamac…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is up half a penny at 39.5 cents…investors are patiently waiting for GBB‘s 43-101 Granada resource estimate which obviously has the potential of taking this company to the next level…another property that is under-rated in our view is Adventure Gold’s (AGE, TSX-V) Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…we’re looking forward to a site visit to Pascalis-Colombiere during our upcoming trip to the Rouyn-Noranda/Val d’Or area which will give us an opportunity to explain this story much better to our readers…a 5,000 metre Phase 2 drill program started at this property in late May, so we’re expecting initial results from that almost anytime now…a 43-101 resource estimate is also being prepared…technically, AGE is holding up well, as John’s chart shows, and it has significantly out-performed the CDNX this year…as of 9:00 am Pacific, AGE is down 3.5 cents to 47.5 cents on light volume…

6 Comments

  1. Hope those of you, who was looking to buy VGD, was able to pick up your shares today at 0.31, the low
    of the day. It was also comforting to see it bounce back & close at 0.34, with plenty of support above 0.31.
    R !

    Comment by Bert — August 15, 2011 @ 12:22 pm

  2. All the junior stocks are generally quiet… SFF, GBB, SD, AGE, BER, NAR, VGD, VGN…. . GBB only had a hundred thousand turnover …. no change in price. SD … someone was only buying 1600 at cents from the market… not really a transaction … closed at 4 cents… I consider SD had no transactions today. BER as expected with a lower volume and adjusted to 14.5 cents. Unlikely to go further down below 13 cents… should think of buying at 14 cents the lowest before volume picks up again. AGE dropped a few cents with low low volume. NAR … a low volume at 16.5 cents – thank you. VGD and SFF also had adjustment today … and I predicted to pick up some at 25.5 cents in my posting yesterday. CQX may have some movements shortly as I picked up some today at 12.5 cents. I am holding portfolio GBB, SD, NAR, BER and CQX.

    Comment by Theodore — August 15, 2011 @ 12:38 pm

  3. I’m surprised we haven’t seen any takeovers as yet. I feel it will happen soon. The
    price & time is right, so Senior producers’ show yourselves please. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 15, 2011 @ 3:30 pm

  4. I am surprised to see VGD back trading at 0.31. especially since
    there were some good bids above 0.31 yesterday p.m. The bids
    were apparently day orders. Whatever, we are back to a good buy
    again & i am there at 0.295 just in case. Good luck ! R !

    Comment by Bert — August 16, 2011 @ 6:02 am

  5. Regular market ebb and flow, Bert……there is some resistance as john pointed out at .35 but I truly believe that will be broken soon…great support at current levels….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 16, 2011 @ 6:06 am

  6. One takeover to report today, Enbridge Power to takeover Tonbridge Power.
    The market is re-acting in a positive manner, R !

    Comment by Bert — August 16, 2011 @ 6:27 am

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