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August 18, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has surged to another all-time high of $1,828 this morning on fresh euro zone debt concerns…European financial stocks sold off sharply overnight and the consensus seems to be that investors were less than impressed with the outcome of Tuesday’s meeting between French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel…as of 8:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $27 an ounce to $1,816…John’s latest Fibonacci target, outlined in last weekend’s chart, is $1,938…Silver is up 27 cents to $40.50, Crude Oil is off $4.25 a barrel on economic growth concerns to $83.33, Copper is down 7 cents to $3.96 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up nearly half a point to 74.26…Morgan Stanley has slashed its global growth forecast for 2011 and 2012, saying the U.S. and the euro zone were “dangerously close to a recession”, and criticized policymakers in Washington and Europe for not acting more decisively to contain the sovereign debt crisis…”Our revised forecasts show the U.S. and the euro area hovering dangerously close to a recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction — over the next 6-12 months,” Joachim Fels, who co-heads Morgan Stanley’s global economics team, said in a research note dated this morning…that was not the bank’s base case scenario, he said, noting the corporate sector still looked healthy and lower inflation will ease pressure on consumers’ pocketbooks, while central banks such as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank could try to loosen policy further…still, “It won’t take much in the form of additional shocks to tip the balance,” he added…”A negative feedback loop between weak growth and soggy asset markets now appears to be in the making in Europe and the United States”…the bank cut its global gross domestic product growth forecast to 3.9%  from 4.2% for 2011, and to 3.8% from 4.5% for 2012…CNBC reported this morning that the European Central Bank has lent dollars to a euro zone bank for the first time since February in the latest sign of escalating tensions in the region’s financial system…the major indexes are down sharply this morning but are trying to recover…the Dow fell as low as 10,885, just 271 points above its August 9 low, and is currently off 397 points at 11,014 which of course is weighing on other markets…the CDNX, despite Gold’s jump today, has declined 42 points to 1779…volume remains light, so it’s really an absence of buyers as opposed to an avalanche of selling…Goldex Resources (GDX, TSX-V) remains one of the most active traders…GDX has filled yesterday’s “gap” and is currently off half a penny at 8 cents…the company reported encouraging results yesterday from its El Pato Gold Property in Guatemala including an impressive 5.04 g/t Au over 30.48 metres…bulk sampling continues at the property while drilling is expected to commence soon at GDX’s promising El Arco Property located in Mexico’s Central Plateau Gold and Silver Belt…surface samples have confirmed the presence of both high grade Gold and Silver at El Arco…with a market cap of just under $8 million, GDX has our interest given the potential of both El Pato and El Arco…volume in GDX has been very high since early July which has likely helped to absorb much of the 5-cent private placement paper issued around the beginning of the year…John updates the GDX chart below which shows the stock has strong support around current levels…

Note: Both John and Jon hold positions in Goldex Resources (Terry does not)…

Market weakness does produce opportunities in the best exploration plays as those are always the companies that bounce back the quickest and the strongest in a market rebound…we suggest investors focus on the most promising exploration areas such as the Yukon and northwest Quebec…along the Cadillac Fault, one of the world’s most prolific mining areas, we’ve written extensively recently about the developing situation at Wasamac where Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) has five drill rigs in action and could quite possibly turn that former producer into a new multi-million ounce deposit…Richmont is expected to provide an update on Wasamac before the end of the month (RIC fell as low as $9 this morning but has bounced back to $9.29)…in the immediate area, Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) is also drilling aggressively and cut several zones of Gold mineralization on its very first hole at Wasa Creek as reported last Thursday…assays are pending on 8 of the 9 holes VGD has completed so far on that previously unexplored property…Wasa Creek is in a rich geological environment so the possibility of a significant discovery certainly exists…the Cadillac Fault even runs right through the middle of that property…VGD, through its option agreement with Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V), borders both sides of the Wasamac Property with Wasa Creek and Wasa East…Cadillac, of course, holds 100% of 7 claims adjoining the northern border of Wasamac where the Richmont deposit could plunge at depth onto CQX’s ground…Wasamac in our view is one of the top geological stories on the Cadillac Trend right now but the street just hasn’t fully woken up to that fact yet – it will, mark our words…Visible Gold Mines is also getting set to commence a 7,500-metre drill program at its Joutel Property, 150 kilometres north of Rouyn-Noranda…the map of Joutel that VGD has released paints a very clear picture of the potential of the Joutel Extension Property with a structural pattern, as VGD reported Tuesday, that suggests there could be additional deposits to the southeast of the past producing Telbel, Eagle and Eagle West mines…if those deposits do exist, VGD senior geologist Robert Sansfacon will find them…VGD is off 2.5 cents at 30.5 cents at the moment but has a rising 50-day moving average (SMA) and other chart positives…elsewhere along the Cadillac Trend, Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) continues to drill the LONG Bars Zone at Granada and with Gold prices like we’re seeing now, the low-grade Granada open-pit scenario looks better than ever…of course everyone is anxious to see the initial 43-101 resource estimate for Granada, and the geological analysis that goes with it, but we’re confident GENIVAR will be able to make a strong case for this property given all the historical information regarding Granada plus results from GBB’s drilling over the past 19 months…Adventure Gold’s (AGE, TSX-V) Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or is a potential big winner in our view and more drill results are expected in the near future…depending on the outcome of the 43-101 resource estimate for this property, which is currently being worked on, we see a strong possibility of a producer such as Richmont Mines acquiring Pascalis-Colombiere and putting it into production…so AGE, in our view, has a valuable asset on its hands especially in the current Gold-price environment…AGE is up 3 pennies at 50 cents this morning while GBB is off half a penny at 37.5 cents…

Investors should also of course continue to keep a close eye on developments in the Yukon where our favorites include the likes of Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V), Golden Predator (GPD, TSX), Pacific Ridge Exploration (PEX, TSX-V), Northern Tiger (NTR, TSX-V), Ethos Capital (ECC, TSX-V), and Silver Quest Resources (SQI, TSX-V)…a low-priced potential gem that holds some interesting ground is Dawson Gold (DYU, TSX-V) which is trading at just 6.5 cents for a market cap of only $2.2 million…Silver Quest has plenty of intrinsic value especially considering it holds a 25% interest in the northern portion of New Gold Inc.’s (NGD, TSX) Blackwater deposit in central British Columbia…SQI is off 4 cents this morning at $1.01 but continues to have an attractive chart as John outlines below…

Note:  John holds a position in Silver Quest Resources (Jon and Terry do not)…

9 Comments

  1. WOW! What crazy markets lately. Anyone notice the bids on VGN?? Someone wants IN in a bad way, 120,000 on the bid at .165 and only 18,000 available on the ask at .17, and only 12,000 available on the ask at .175 and VERY LITTLE for sale past that. I wonder who it is sitting on the bid wanting those 120,000 shares???? hhhmmmm?? I bet it is a certain TR??

    Comment by john — August 18, 2011 @ 8:11 am

  2. Hello Jon, thanks for the updates and charts. I’m eagerly awaiting news from AGE, VGD and CUI. All hold up well despite market turmoil. It has been some time since you discussed EVR; I know it’s not in the model portfolio but do you revisit it occasionally? I noticed Andre Audet has done some buying recently. It has also held up well with the CDNX fall backs.

    Comment by Andrew — August 18, 2011 @ 8:14 am

  3. How promising is GDX? Well OVER 2 plus million are BAILING between .075-.o85 and right now there is 265,000 wanting OUT at .085, this can’t be a good thing. Ya ya markets are down, but I think this is a company specific problem, not every stock is down today. When I spoke with TR yesterday, he also mentioned that the re-examing of the flow rates will be released possibly next week, hence the 120,000 shares on the bid for VGN??? interesting indeed!

    Comment by john — August 18, 2011 @ 9:05 am

  4. Hi,
    I mentioned GDW earlier comments, they just released initial assay result boost the stock highs around 30% today over 5m volume.
    Any insight on the results and further potential here?
    Thanks a

    Comment by A — August 18, 2011 @ 10:17 am

  5. A bad day on the market, but you know, some of my stocks were up, in particular Helio, (HRC).,
    which was up 0.055 to 0.34 on 236K shares. Sunridge ,(SGC) another stock of mine, up 0.04 to 0.70.,
    on 380K shares…….I can’t forget SQI, although it closed even on the day, is a stock waiting
    to move through the gate . I feel certain all these companies, will do well with time. R !

    Disclaimer – As noted, i own all stocks, but i certainly don’t expect anyone to buy because i am
    excited with my picks. I also have losers…

    Comment by Bert — August 18, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  6. It appears that the bad days for stock market continue …. If this is the case, all the junior stocks will be affected… GBB unlikely to stay at 37 cents level… someone is just waiting for a big buy lot (not that big … about 50,000 – 100,000 shares) and will dump it… going back to 32-33 cents … For sure, I will scoop some but definitely not now…. I sold at 39 cents. SD … still holding but it may hit the 3 cents mark if the market continue to slump. SFF …. no exceptions will be lower … going back to 21 cents level…. BER reached 13 cents now… I will definitely scoop some at 11.5 cents… NAR… hard to attract people to dump on you unless you offer 17 cents buy… I will only give 15 cents in this market condition. CQX continue to slide and I predict it will go back to 8.5 cents. GDX … still being dumped by placement share holders and soon it may hit 6 cents level. I will not buy this one in this market condition. There is no rush to buy any stocks at this time as the stock market continues in such a volatile state. No traders will have interest to buy now… keep the cash and wait for the huge drop…. many chances to buy any of these stock at a low low price…. Listen, no need to rush back to the market now… buy low sell high …

    Comment by Theodore — August 18, 2011 @ 6:20 pm

  7. 13/4 hours before open & everything in the RED again. That’s the bad news, now for the good news,
    for what it’s worth, i feel we will bounce back today. I am right some of the time. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 19, 2011 @ 4:15 am

  8. You may well be right, Bert and it’s good to be optimistic. FTSE and DAX are down but off their lows, at least for the time being!

    Comment by Andrew — August 19, 2011 @ 4:21 am

  9. We have bounced back. It appears my gut feeling
    is as good as John’s charting & take that as a
    compliment my buddy ! R !

    Comment by Bert — August 19, 2011 @ 6:19 am

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