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August 19, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Hmmm…I guess we’re just not paying enough attention to what’s happening here in North America…U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden is visiting China at the moment and according to his counterpart, heir apparent Xi Jinping, Biden briefed the Chinese Vice-President “about the efforts of the U.S. government in spurring growth and jobs, cutting the budget deficit, properly handling the debt problem, and preserving the confidence of global investors”…oh, and by the way China, about all those U.S. Treasuries you’re holding, “Very sincerely,” Biden stated, “I want to make clear you have nothing to worry about”…it’s always so reassuring when a politician speaks like that…well, at least the meetings between Biden and Chinese officials were a little more cordial than the “friendship” basketball game between the Georgetown University Hoyas and the Bayi Military Rockets that degenerated into a brawl…with just over one year left in his first and likely only term, and with U.S. unemployment sky-high, President Obama has finally discovered a sense of urgency regarding the U.S. growth and jobs deficit and will be making a major speech with proposals immediately after Labour Day…a big factor in Gold‘s move recently has been a loss of confidence by the markets in governments across-the-board, specifically the United States and countries throughout the euro zone…there is a lack of economic leadership and where that’s ultimately going to come from is hard to say…it seems Americans would have been far better off electing John McCain in 2008 who at least knows how to fight a real war…Obama has failed miserably so far in the economic war but we’ll see what he comes up with next month…he faces a very divided Congress but rather than complain about that, a truly great leader is able to overcome those obstacles and rally the nation…for now, the emerging market growth story continues which is critical for overall global growth as well as commodities…there’s also a significant amount of fear and negativity in the markets right now, and plenty of cash on the sidelines, which from a contrarian point of view is positive… Gold surged to another new all-time high overnight of $1,879…as of 9:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal has pulled back to $1,851 which is still a $26 jump from yesterday…Silver has climbed $1.40 to $42.04, Crude Oil is up 29 cents at $82.67, Copper has gained 3 pennies to $3.98 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off half a point to 73.86…the CDNX is off 2 points at 1769…while we normally focus on the Venture Exchange, this morning John has charts on the Dow and the TSX Gold Index that we believe are timely given that the Venture is being influenced so much by other markets at the moment…John sees a potential “squeezing” of the Dow’s bollinger bands in the near future which could lead to a market recovery…

John: The Dow is dropping toward the support area (green).  If it does not break below this support, it will form a “double bottom” pattern. This would be a strong base for a reversal.

There are 2 sets of Bollinger Bands shown –  BB blue (13, 2.33) and BB green (13,1).  When volatility declines the bands converge, and conversely they diverge when volatility increases. Two instances are shown where the bands (blue) have converged, causing a “squeeze” which is a low volatility period of about 1 week.   At the present time the two blue bands are heading down but if the support holds the lower blue band will quickly turn up and proceed to almost meet the top blue band which will continue to fall. Then the “squeeze period” will begin when the two bands flatten and move sideways. In the meantime the Index will be basing and preparing to reverse.

When the Index rises from the support the bands will diverge and the Index will climb between the top blue band and the top green band in a similar manner to the other two instances shown.

——-

The TSX Gold Index has been a strong performer since bottoming out in mid-June around 350…since then, the Gold Index has climbed 18% while the TSX has fallen approximately 5%…if economic conditions deteriorate more than expected in the United States and Europe, and globally, the TSX Gold Index should continue to shine as Gold will likely more even higher and input costs for producers will drop significantly…while we still see great opportunities in many advanced exploration plays on the CDNX, holding a producer or two in one’s portfolio makes a lot of sense…John’s chart shows the TSX Gold Index is generally looking very healthy but is currently in a resistance band – whether it has enough “juice” to push through this resistance at the moment is uncertain but the overall outlook, based on technicals and fundamentals, is very bullish in our view…

As of 9:00 am Pacific, the TSX Gold Index is up 8 points at 413…Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX), which is expected to come out with a Wasamac exploration update before the end of the month, is up 28 cents to $9.27…New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX), also one of our favorites, is 35 cents higher at $12.50…speaking of Wasamac, Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) fell to 30.5 cents this morning but bargain-hunters are beginning to step up to the plate with growing bids and volume…VGD is currently off a penny at 31 cents…the company continues to aggressively drill at Wasa Creek, bordering the western boundary of the Wasamac Property, and assay results are pending for 8 out of 9 holes completed as of early this week…the company will be ramping up its drilling by another couple of notches in the near future with programs at Joutel and Stadacona-East…Silver Quest Resources (SQI, TSX-V) continues to bounce back from its recent drop into the ’80’s where we hope some readers were able to scoop up some cheap stock…SQI is up 6 cents this morning to $1.11…Goldex Resources (GDX, TSX-V) is holding steady at 8 cents…with just an $8 million market cap, GDX offers strong upside potential given its recent drill results from El Pato and the coming program at El Arco in Mexico…there is good liquidity in this stock which is another advantage…

20 Comments

  1. ANyone else find it rather odd that on the 17th of August, the SAME day that BMR posts an article and chart on the merits of GDX.v that an insider of the company, Joseph Milan Mezihorak DISPOSES of 1 MILLION shares????? AT .09 cents, next day the shares fall as low as .075?? Coincidence?

    Comment by john — August 19, 2011 @ 8:25 am

  2. gdx, too many shares out. 46 mil in pps. ouch

    Comment by dave — August 19, 2011 @ 8:46 am

  3. dave, what price are they doing the PP?? I also notice that another BMR favorite, ISD.v has broken it’s support, could be hitting a new 52 week low next week. Ofcourse next week is also when VGN is to release their news on the 2 recently drilled Viking oil pool wells in Provost, this after they had to go over they data and flow rates because they were BETTER than expected, can’t wait!

    Comment by john — August 19, 2011 @ 9:43 am

  4. John I am coming to the conclusion that you are not playing with the full deck. Who knows why he sold shares that he purchased for 5c at 9c.? Maybe he needed the money for his kids school year. Who cares as this happens all the time. Trying to insinuate that BMR were somehow involved in pumping this stock is beyond conspiracy theory. You are really growing tiresome with your constant pumping of VGN and your private little chats with Tony. And I say this as a shareholder of VGN! These kind of ridiculous remarks have no place on this forum or any other for that matter. Grow up!

    Comment by Patrick — August 19, 2011 @ 10:31 am

  5. We did bounce back & traded in the green for a period of time this
    morning, but it was not meant to last that long, as the negativity
    out there, crept back into the market. Better days ahead. Have a good
    weekend. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 19, 2011 @ 11:20 am

  6. I’m becoming more skeptical that we are going to get a recovery sometime this year as we saw late last year. Unless of course the the Eurozone comes out with a plan that will help stimualte their economy I’m not quite sure we are going to see any major moves in the market. I don’t think this is any longer soley driven by the US economy. I think the focus has shift to the Eurozone and any improvements in the US might be helpful, but I don’t think we will see any shift to risk assets until the Eurozone shows signs of life. Ultimately, negativity in the euro would be positive momentum for the USD which results in downward pressure on equities. So my expectations is that unless the Euro improves we aren’t going to see any improvements in equities going forward.

    That’s my two sense. Comments are always welcome.

    Comment by Andrew M — August 19, 2011 @ 12:26 pm

  7. Not a bad day for me… I scooped some GBB at 36 cents …. SD is seen to drop at 3 cents but this should be the rock bottom price unless the news coming out is not a good one. But I don’t think so…. BER closed at 13 cents with no changes… as I said, it will not go below 13 cents… Get some before it is too late. SFF has a low volume today with one penny up. CQX dropped below 10 cents which is another bargain buy. NAR … still no luck at 16 cents…. keep on waiting. GDX still not interested as a lot placement shares still waiting to be dumped…. very high selling pressure at 8 – 8.5 cents. I am holding portfolio in GBB, SD, BER and NAR.

    Comment by Theodore — August 19, 2011 @ 12:55 pm

  8. Anyone follow or hold EVR? I’ve been holding for a while and bought at .28. Didn’t sell when it went to low 30s and now, of course, wish I had. There hasn’t been any follow up news on assays or progress with the second rig so I’m a little concerned. I’d like to hold but may switch to add to VGD and/or AGE. Also I’m concerned at lack of assays from CUI they had over 500 at a lab in early July and no results yet. Delayed news is usually not good but maybe this is an acceptable time frame for the lab? Thanks and have a good weekend.

    Comment by Andrew — August 19, 2011 @ 1:21 pm

  9. Andrew my cyber friend

    Don’t be skeptical, the market can change to the positive at the blink of an eye.
    I gave up on the indices this afternoon, only to find out post market, that the
    Venture was only down 6 pts. Earlier today i had noticed it was down close to 50 pts.
    & that my friend is quite a comeback, especially for the Venture. I actually feel
    fairly positive, because most of the bad news may be priced in. Europe no doubt,
    will come up with a solution & in a couple of weeks, President O’bama (my man) will
    come forward with a plan, because his re-election may hinge on it, thus i expect it
    to be very positive.. Also, we must not forget about the Yukon & may i remind you that
    assays are overdue. I can go on & on, but i don’t want to bore you , therefore will sign
    off, but not before i remind you that SQI closed up 5 pts. today, so there’s always a
    stock out there, trading in a positive manner. While you may be skeptical, others remain
    certain that things will turn around. Good luck ! R !

    Comment by Bert — August 19, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

  10. gold at all time high and so many good gold stocks not doing anything. I look at RMX,SGR,ARZ,YRI,LSG not even close to all time highs, So I find it hard to believe any penny gold stock following POG…. A year ago if you tolled me that gold will be a 2000 bucks and the miners are going to do poorly, I wouldn`t believe it …

    Comment by Rich — August 19, 2011 @ 3:55 pm

  11. No comments on the GBB corebox.net visual representation? Very very comparable to Brett and osk..

    Comment by jeff — August 19, 2011 @ 3:59 pm

  12. Gotta love your paper trades Theodore! You’re not touching GBB till it hits 32-33 cents (as of yesterday’s post) but you had a bid in at 36 cents today to catch it when it fell.

    The only available ask was 36.5 once it touched 35.5 so you couldn’t have been grabbing for 36 cents unless your bid was already there.

    I guess you had a change of heart and figured you’d pay 10% higher than you would yesterday.

    At least you have some GBB as a portfolio being held with NAR, BER and SD is pretty scary in these markets.

    Comment by Taylor — August 19, 2011 @ 5:59 pm

  13. Today’s market… the drop was mainly the financial sector. GBB opened higher than yesterday and quickly slided down to 35.5 cents … The board and volume shown were not necessary true. One great example – on Aug 16, I sold 70,000 SD at 3.5 cents but this transaction was not showing anywhere. The volume 101,000 shares were already there before I put my shares on board. Maybe someone can explain to me why my shares were not reflected on the board. Originally, I put my buy at 33 cents after sold at 39 but after GBB has opened high today, I changed to 36 cents … you probably right, seeing no transaction but I got my shares at 36 cents. SD I bought them at 3.5 cents – 4 cents and at one time, I am holding half of a million. Now, I reduced my holdings a lot but still, I will hold it waiting for the field results and drill permit. Still anticipating to get double my buying price. BER is my favorite stock now and I will scoop more if it goes down … but very unlikely now and I expect a better return. NAR is just my personal favourite and was bought at 15.5 cents level… collecting slowly not over 16 cents.

    Comment by Theodore — August 19, 2011 @ 6:56 pm

  14. Theodore, have you looked at the GBB 3D model on corebox.net. I don’t think you will ever get it for 32 cents again..imo as it looks pretty impressive for the number of holes 175 and only 29,451 meters reported to date. With about another 150 more to come as that is what is pending as per the map shown dated on July 11th. The model is in line with the Brett property that was taken out by Osisko for 600 million when gold was trading much much lower.

    GL, Dan

    Comment by Dan — August 20, 2011 @ 3:23 am

  15. Thanks Bert, yes the Venture did well on Friday, a bit of a yo yo day on the markets, I keep an eye on the FTSE and DAX too. I’m not really skeptical, I’ve held throughout all the turmoil this year and tried to manage my portfolio so I could buy on the dips. I try to be positive – it’s in my training and also what I teach. I’m really just a bit concerned about EVR but not the share price. I thought that there would have been news, even just an update by now. I’m really into AGE and VGD and debating whether or not to switch my EVR holdings to them. I’ve tried to reach Andre Audet but not had any response (nor in past communications). So I was just looking for any insight from any other EVR shareholders who may follow BMR. Earlier in the year EVR was discussed fairly regularly. With CUI it is my third favourite holding but again debating whether to sell and increase holdings in AGE and VGD as they are likely to give a return before CUI and still allow me to buy back into CUI before they start work at Sekenke. I also hold ABI and I may just switch that to CQX for a month or two because, again, ABI is unlikely to move much before the end of the year and CQX is going to start to draw attention of investors very soon. 🙂 Anyway, enjoy your weekend and look forward to a good week ahead.

    Comment by Andrew — August 20, 2011 @ 4:27 am

  16. Dan, I did and fully agreed with you that GBB has a very good potential. GBB remains my favorite as I started to buy at 6 cents level … I will never forget that… The market condition we never know as I just want to take the advantage before further news from GBB… In a long run, I will hold it as major portfolio. Nobody knows GBB went up to 93 cents and came down to 30s…. but now closed at 40 cents. It will still swing ups and downs … and I am taking the advantage of its good swing and make some money or retain a higher holding. Some stocks never move recently… SD is one example… you cannot make anything out of it unless the result comes out to be good… otherwise, it may drop to 1.5 – 2 cents….. My theory is still making money during this period of time but of course, I may be caught if suddenly GBB announces a good drilling result and I just sold them….Let us see as I will never give up GBB holding…. $ 1 market value is foreseeable.

    Comment by Theodore — August 20, 2011 @ 6:41 am

  17. theodore, your shares might have come through on alpha or the x exchange

    Comment by dave — August 20, 2011 @ 9:04 am

  18. Can I ask why everything I post here is removed.

    Comment by Rosco — August 21, 2011 @ 1:46 am

  19. Rosco, sorry, we’ll check into it. Could be just a technical issue.

    Comment by BMR — August 21, 2011 @ 7:26 am

  20. Pardon me! Ah – I can see my last post now – thanks.

    Comment by Rosco — August 21, 2011 @ 7:46 am

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