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November 17, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is under pressure again but is underpinned by strong support…as of 8:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $21 an ounce at $1,741…Silver is $1.06 lower at $32.64…Copper has dropped a dime to $3.40…Crude Oil is off $2.06 to $100.53 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down over one-third of a point to 78.02…

Global Gold demand in the third quarter of 2011 reached 1,053.9 tonnes, an increase of 6% compared to the same period last year, according to the World Gold Council…this equates to $57.7 billion, an all-time high in value terms, it said in a statement…the World Gold Council report said the increase was driven by investment demand which rose by 33% year-on-year to 468.1 tonnes, generating record quarterly demand of $25.6 billion…investment demand in Europe reached a record quarterly value of 4.6 billion euros, equating to 118.1 tonnes – a year-on-year increase of 135%…the jump in overall investment demand was all the more impressive given the sharp Gold price correction in September which encouraged a wave of profit-taking among bar and coin investors…virtually all markets saw strong double-digit growth in demand for Gold bars and coins…Chinese jewellery demand was 13% higher year-on-year at 131 tonnes…the bulk of this increase was seen in smaller cities as retail chains expanded their networks to meet increasing demand fueled by rising income levels…China’s growing appetite for Gold as a means of investment saw demand for Gold bars and coins expand by 24% over year earlier levels to 60.2 tonnes…

The CDNX is managing to hold support, at least for now…the Index is off 7 points at 1626, just above its rising 20-day moving average (SMA)…critical support for the CDNX is between 1575 and 1600…some cracks have started to appear recently in the CDNX rally since October 4 but support is holding so far…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V), like many juniors, has had a rough 2011 but we have a long-term chart this morning that brings into focus the potential opportunity with this play now that it’s trading at just 7 cents a share…first off, keep in mind that CUI has been around for more than 40 years and has never gone through a share consolidation…as of June 30, the company had $1.8 million in working capital (cash) and no debt…total shares outstanding at the moment are 89.2 million, giving CUI a market cap of $6.25 million…the stock has been beaten down from a 52-week high of 47.5 cents due to lackluster drill results from two of the company’s Mabale Hills properties (Sisu River and Dhahabu) in northwest Tanzania…however, CUI’s key project in that country is Sekenke, a large land package that surrounds and runs in between two past producing high-grade Gold mines…CUI completed its first-ever drill program at Sekenke over the summer (nearly 3,000 metres) and results are still pending…investors seem to have already discounted the possibility of poor results from Sekenke simply because of what happened at Sisu River and Dhahabu, 200 kilometres to the north…geologically, Sekenke is a more promising prospect given the proximity to the former mines and the identification of numerous quartz reefs of the same type and even larger than those that developed at the old Sekenke and Kirondatal mines…regardless of the upcoming results, though, CUI is still in the very early stages of exploration at Sekenke which will likely be ramped up considerably next year – it’s a large and inviting target…strategically, no matter how promising its properties in Tanzania might be, it would make sense for CUI to add a new project into the mix to generate some fresh excitement and enable the company to drill year-round (heavy winter rains in Tanzania shorten the drilling season there)…so don’t be surprised if CUI pulls the trigger on a project acquisition – just speculation on our part but this company has a 40-year history of doing its best for shareholders…John’s 10-year monthly chart below is quite fascinating and shows that CUI is sitting on strong support…now is the time for patient investors to be bullish, not bearish, regarding Currie Rose as the chart clearly demonstrates…

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) has new life, thanks to some interesting news that came out during yesterday’s trading session…what really grabbed our attention is the location of historical hole 90-01 which underscores the potential of the LONG Bars Zone to the north and at depth….hole 90-01 was drilled nearly 500 metres northwest of GBB’s northeast extension discovery hole #17…that’s like a huge step-out hole, approximately 350 metres north of any previously reported GBB holes in the northern part of the Eastern Extension and 830 metres northwest of GR-10-86 in the south…the historical hole intersected 1.12 g/t Au over 304.36 metres (between 387.90 and 692.26 metres) and included a 23.55-metre section grading 5.46 g/t Au (between 387.90 metres and 411.45 metres)…we don’t know how consistent the mineralization is in that 23.55-metre interval…the only high-grade “spike” reported by GBB yesterday for that hole is 66.86 g/t Au over 1.14 metres between 538.96 and 540.10 metres…nonetheless, this is an important development in the exploration and understanding of the LONG Bars Zone…the area north of hole #17, where there appears to be some intense faulting, has been showing a lot of promise for GBB and tonnage is adding up nicely based on drill results…of course the LONG Bars Zone remains open in all directions, and GBB says it has expanded its core logging and core cutting capacity…SGS Canada has been hired as an independent consultant, replacing GENIVAR, and a 43-101 resource estimate is expected during the first quarter of next year followed by a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA)…a total of 78,414 metres have been drilled at Granada over the last two years on top of nearly 30,000 metres of historical drilling…GBB’s last batch of Phase 3 drill results were released in mid-September with half of the 28 holes featuring intercepts of 100 metres or more grading between 0.31 g/t Au and 0.50 g/t Au…this remains a massive project with multi-million ounce potential…we like the fact GBB is trading at only one-quarter of the market cap ($33.6 million vs. $134.5 million) of a comparable project in a more advanced stage, Spanish Mountain Gold’s (SPA, TSX-V) deposit in central British Columbia…John sees some encouraging signs in the GBB chart as shown below…as of 8:45 am Pacific, GBB is unchanged at 20 cents…

Gold Bullion’s Castle Silver Mines IPO is expected to close by mid-December…Gold Bullion shareholders will receive one common share of Castle Silver Mines for approximately every 85 issued and outstanding GBB shares on the distribution record date…as BMR readers know, we’re very bullish on the long-term outlook for Silver and we’re expecting new all-time highs in 2012…in response to a comment from Patrick this morning, regarding a Silver chart article in MoneyWeek, John has produced a 20-year monthly Silver chart that readers should find interesting…

12 Comments

  1. what do PZG, TUO,ATC, ROG,MTU,PRB, have in common? They are some of the companies that have had very large run-ups in their share prices after excellent news releases in the past year. There aren’t a lot of these ‘golden/silver swan’ events. Perhaps 7 to 11 per year or one out of a thousand drilling/discovery news releases. I’m interested in finding someone else who avidly watches premarket news and stock halts for the purpose of the occasional sharing of quick DD and opinions on these rare events. You could contact me at [email protected]

    Comment by Carl — November 17, 2011 @ 9:46 am

  2. OMG!! WOW BMR!! 1st off, IF GBB’s news is SO great, why the sell on news??? Also a BIG move into the very LOW .20’s is NOTHING to get excited about, OH, I see now that is it UNDER .20, AGAIN!! And CUI??? HAHAHAH you’re joking right? You are JUST as excited at this .07 cent stock as you were when it was .47?? I’d be VERY worried!! You past PROMOTIONS, ahem, excuse me, ” PICKS” such as v.SD, CUI, GBB ABI SFF are at or very near 52 week and ALL time LOWS!!!! But I must admit my favorite BMR call was this, ” we firmly believe that VGN will this year hit all time highs”!!!! This after you were forced to eat CRUD and change your timeline on VGN 3 TIMES!!! Give it a rest with your PUMPING!!! Your charts are MEANINGLESS as the share price of your PROMOTIONS are PATHETIC!!!!

    Comment by John — November 17, 2011 @ 10:19 am

  3. Anyone checking out sage. pick of the month on at least 2 sites stock was .55 on nov 1st today trading at .80 surrouded by barrick gold newmont mining kinross allied nevada top notch geologist. backed by big investors .soon to go into production stock surging ahead like a japanese bullet train. buy at less than half price by buying crgc .Iam starting to see green in my porfolio

    Comment by gil — November 17, 2011 @ 10:37 am

  4. thats sage.ob

    Comment by gil — November 17, 2011 @ 10:44 am

  5. Another thing about GBB that no one seems to mention is the Shareholder Gold Purchase Program which was approved by the TSX in 2008. http://goldbulliondevelopmentcorp.com/html- pages/downloads/MD&AAudited_6a6e8.pdf This will entitle shareholders to participate in forward purchase of gold at a discount as a means of funding. This facility will be allocated according to size of shareholding and is usually done at a 20% discount to the spot price of the day although this is not stipulated. I participated in one of these in 2009 with a different company and it worked out well. More details are supposed to be released with the 43-101. This new (old) hole has changed things and puts things in a whole new perspective. Is this the real reason that Genivar got the boot. If they missed this hole they should be gone as this looks like the most exciting area on the property so far. And Aureka has still to come!

    Comment by Patrick — November 17, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

  6. How’s the CUI chart looking now??? LOL 52 week low, here it comes…LOL Will Sidon ever trade again? GBB, will not amount to a hill of beans SFF?? HA! Nobody wants to touch it with a 10 foot pole. But, we are all entitled to have a dog in our portfolio..LOL Just 1 BMR?? HAHA

    Comment by John — November 17, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

  7. Hi John,

    How likely it is that silver would test 21.75 before rallying again?

    Thanks in advance!

    Martin

    Comment by Martin — November 17, 2011 @ 12:47 pm

  8. with the market showing a lot of red/ sage.ob and crgc are showing bright green

    Comment by gil — November 17, 2011 @ 12:53 pm

  9. So is CJC, watch this one CLOSELY.

    Comment by dave — November 17, 2011 @ 2:44 pm

  10. Hi Martin
    Impossible to say, but I suggest you look at tomorrow’s Silver chart.

    Comment by John - BMR — November 17, 2011 @ 4:50 pm

  11. CJC holds it’s own, Dave – I’m impressed and nearly bought more but I haven’t followed this stock so I’ll see how it responds after the news release and try to be ready to act accordingly. CEV unwound as did many stocks across all sectors, perhaps it will come down further as it appears there is possibly a correction in the making after the October rally (bull trap). AGE is solid too and has performed well this year. GBB could be a bargain soon (perhaps it is now) and I’m seriously thinking of taking a hit on VGD and switching to the above. Thanks for bringing CJC and CEV to our attention. Gil, can’t really comment on SAGE, it does seem to hold promise but I haven’t done any due diligence and I generally stay away from stocks that trade solely on the OTCBB, good luck with it – sounds like you are doing well anyway!

    Comment by Andrew — November 17, 2011 @ 4:53 pm

  12. CJC – all TA pointing up at the moment. CEV – remember after a move like this watch the TA and play it in and out. Everytime you sell at a top and buy back on corrections, you are getting more shares. She is going to be volitile for some time to come. CEV should see $2 to $3 next year easily. CJC could see it quickly very shortly.

    Comment by dave — November 17, 2011 @ 6:49 pm

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