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November 2, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold continues to look strong and is up $21 an ounce to $1,741 as of 8:15 am Pacific…how soon it blasts through resistance in the $1,750’s is anyone’s guess, but the chart is bullish as John has shown…Silver is 85 cents higher at $34.30, Copper has gained a dime to $3.60, Crude Oil is up 93 cents to $93.12 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen three-quarters of a point to 76.75…

Gold producers are shining again today along with the yellow metal…the best plays in the market for Gold bugs continue to be the producers and those exploration companies with very advanced properties and significant 43-101 resources (or pending 43-101’s)…companies such as Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V), Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V), Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) and Canaco Resources (CAN, TSX-V), just to name a few, have each made great progress on the ground over the last year and will ultimately be rewarded by the market accordingly…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V), while it has a terrific project on its hands, has been punished for lack of efficiency on the ground and delays in producing a 43-101…the LONG Bars Zone, however, remains an exciting target…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) continues to be one of our favorite smaller producers with third quarter earnings due shortly (they should be robust) and an updated 43-101 resource estimate for Wasamac (likely next month)… based on drill results to date, Wasamac could easily jump from 1.4 million ounces (all categories) to 2 million ounces…ultimately, Wasamac has multi-million ounce potential as considerably more exploratory drilling is possible over the very promising eastern extension area and at depth under the entire deposit…Richmont is up 36 cents at the moment to $12.49…the RIC chart is bullish and the stock appears ready to take a run at a new all-time high…the fundamentals support that…RIC’s production for 2012 is expected to increase by at least 30% to over 100,000 ounces…we continue to like Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) very much for the promising ground it controls west, south and east of the Wasamac Property…

Another producer we love is New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) which is staging an important breakout this morning through the $12.70 area as John’s chart details…as of 8:15 am Pacific, NGD is up 25 cents to $12.85…

With Gold expected to hit $2,000 or better, investors should also check out the Kinross “D” warrants (K.WT.D) which have not yet recovered from the slump over the last six weeks or so…they are trading at $2.45 this morning and the Kinross chart is looking healthier…the warrants are risky but don’t expire for nearly three years and offer fantastic leverage in the event the producers really start to take off with the Gold price…the CDNX found support as expected around the 1575 area and appears ready to take a run at the 1700 level as John had previously predicted…it’s currently up 31 points at 1620…investors must be extremely selective in this market and stick to companies with strong cash positions, favorable chart patterns, excellent properties and superior management…

Manitou Gold (MTU, TSX-V) has reported stellar results this morning from its Gaffney Project in northwestern Ontario – 75.1 metres grading 2.4 g/t Au in its deepest hole completed to date (232.4 to 307.5 metres)…Gold mineralization displayed exceptional width and continuity with increasing depth…mineralization remains open both along strike and downdip…MTU is up slightly, trading in the mid-60’s…this one could get quite interesting…

27 Comments

  1. Jon: “investors must be extremely selective in this market and stick to companies with strong cash positions, favorable chart patterns, excellent properties and superior management” do you still consider VGD to be one of these companies or do you feel it is too speculative for the current conditions?

    Comment by Andrew — November 2, 2011 @ 7:53 am

  2. Volume on Lakeshore Gold (LSG-T) has been very strong. John, could you post a chart and comments on this company.
    Regards

    Comment by Paul — November 2, 2011 @ 8:18 am

  3. GBB selling seems overdone but the silence from the company is disparaging. C’mon Frankie boy at least communicate with the market.

    And what about VGN?? – a whole year and not a word from Tony – what-ever happened the heli-survery? Looks like Tony took said helicopter and flew away!

    Comment by Hugh — November 2, 2011 @ 9:22 am

  4. i don’t know hugh, a 200k bid just went on vgn at .15 by cannacord.

    Comment by dave — November 2, 2011 @ 10:02 am

  5. @Dave – I am trying the old trick, when waiting ages for a bus, just light a cigarette! 🙂

    Comment by Hugh — November 2, 2011 @ 10:34 am

  6. In my defense a year is a very long time to not communicate with shareholders.

    Comment by Hugh — November 2, 2011 @ 10:53 am

  7. i agree hugh, i was just commenting on cannacord wanting 200k at .15, seams strange if nothing up. The chart does look poised for a run. I am not in it so I wish you luck if you are.

    Comment by dave — November 2, 2011 @ 11:12 am

  8. Yes that’s an interesting development and one to keep and eye on. Hopefully Roodenburg is using his famous Roladex and talking to some people instead of just paying himself a nice salary with share holders cash!

    Comment by Hugh — November 2, 2011 @ 11:17 am

  9. Does anyone here at BMR have any concerns or comments as to why it is taking so long to get the drill results from Visible Gold Mines? The last time they reported results the first hole on the break was pretty good but there were other holes near Vantex that were very poor. This has got to be weighing heavy as this stock was backed so strongly over a long period of time even just before it fell to 22 cents from 45 or 50.

    Comment by Ed — November 2, 2011 @ 7:08 pm

  10. This is an excerpt from the VGD NR: “Assay results from the final twelve holes of Phase 1 will be reported as soon as they are received and interpreted” (Sept 26).

    Not to pop anyone’s bubble about VGD/CQX. I wondered why “interpreted” was included in the NR.

    Knowing that Martin is a marketer, I’m expecting to see poor results buried within the good results. So the question is when will VGD receive good assay result(s).

    Comment by Bruce — November 2, 2011 @ 8:08 pm

  11. Ed, you mention the holes near Vantex that were poor – are these the Lapaska ones drilled by MZO? I’ve discounted Lapaska from the equation. I’m not aware of any drill result subsequent to the single hole from Wasa Creek way back in early August. Martin Dallaire does not return emails or phone calls, so I’m assuming that there is no good news and perhaps they are waiting to report on drilling from Joutel. Lack of communication from polite and positive questions to investor relations is generally a bad sign too as well as an indication of poor management. As Bruce says, they may be able to provide a news release with a mixed bag of results. However, Joutel is a big unknown so the risk is very high. The only stock in the BMR model portfolio that I see has any potential in the current conditions is AGE. It would be nice if BMR would rotate their model portfolio according to results and market conditions. For example some holdings could have been replaced with stocks such as PRB, CAN, GCU etc. at least in the interim we would stand a better chance of making gains. PRB doubled in October – not bad for a bear market! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — November 3, 2011 @ 4:29 am

  12. Andrew, PRB – And if they hit at the fold nose it’ll double again at the very least. Reading the Jennings report it looks to be good odds that they will hit.

    From the report – “While assays from initial drilling in the fold hinge area are yet to be received, we are very encouraged by the confluence of geology, structure and geophysics and believe this to be one of the best untested geological targets we have ever seen.”

    GBB – the slaughter continues. Come on Frank, get it together.

    Comment by Rosco — November 3, 2011 @ 4:55 am

  13. Finally something from VGN but it’s not very encouraging for those who have been waiting for a year:
    Greencastle Identifies Priority Targets on Nechako Property, Blackwater Gold Area, BC

    Comment by Andrew — November 3, 2011 @ 5:00 am

  14. Dear Jon/John,

    In the month on Sep 2011 you’ll have assured to all SD investors that:
    Quote:
    “Sidon International (SD, TSX-V)
    Still nothing new to report here…we’re all entitled to have one dog in our portfolio and Sidon is that dog for us”

    I also quote your words:
    Quote:
    Sidon, however, is a better understanding of the Morogoro geological structure which could aid in any future drilling…exploration, especially at such an early stage, is never easy and disappointing early results don’t necessarily mean a property doesn’t hold potential…the company is also trying to develop a placer operation at Morogoro…there is certainly the possibility of better days ahead for Sidon.
    Unquote:
    At the moment this company has disappear from the TSX venture and all investors have lost their money and confidence on BNR.

    Comment by Eric Benson — November 3, 2011 @ 5:20 am

  15. Vgn came out with its annual news release and boy is it weak, I’m afraid that Sir Tony who is suppose to be giving VGN his undivided attention is dropping the ball here. I don’t think I’ll be sticking around till next Nov to read the next Press release.

    Comment by Dan — November 3, 2011 @ 6:05 am

  16. I do have 2 stocks that I am high on. I mentioned CEV in early october. It doubled. Wait for a pullback, watch TA, and get some. The second one I am not in yet, but will mention when its near time.

    Comment by dave — November 3, 2011 @ 7:17 am

  17. NOT plus many others have doubled in Oct. You can’t stay with the same 5 or so. BMR should be open minded and talk about the movers.

    Comment by dave — November 3, 2011 @ 6:26 am

  18. That’s what I would like to see too, Dave. Shuffling portfolios at the appropriate opportunities is key. Maybe BMR would be open to using this forum to discuss alterant model portfolios? Dave (and others), do you have favourite picks with potential to move to the upside in the current turmoil? Bert has given us some good picks in the past. I’m currently watching PRB, CAN, NES, USA and GCU

    Comment by Andrew — November 3, 2011 @ 6:35 am

  19. Sorry, alternative – I don’t “alterant” is a word but it looks and sounds good! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — November 3, 2011 @ 6:36 am

  20. Hi Eric

    We constantly tell our readers that we express our opinions and advise everyone to do their own DD and when a stock goes down to cut their losses.

    Here is an excerpt from an article by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, Daily Wealth entitled
    “How to be a great Commodities Investor”

    ….Lastly, in case I’m wrong, I always have an exit plan… And I always cut my losses early. To improve my odds, I prefer to wait until the sentiment gets terrible as it did a few weeks ago… and then wait for an uptrend. THEN I get in.”

    The same advice you get on BMR.

    You are responsible for your investing actions regardless of any other opinion.

    Everyone must have a trading plan. You should determine your entry level and exit level before you buy. Without a plan you have no control.

    Comment by John - BMR — November 3, 2011 @ 6:52 am

  21. Interesting how Cannacord puts a bid in yesterday and the news comes out today – where are the authroities? I agree this news is nothing too exciting, stil lets nor forget the sucess of neighbouring properties here! At least finally they ‘appear’ to be doing something!

    Comment by Hugh — November 3, 2011 @ 6:53 am

  22. Thanks Dave, I recall you mentioned CEV and indeed it did exceptionally well almost immediately. Taylor, too has some good picks with detailed analysis.

    Comment by Andrew — November 3, 2011 @ 7:30 am

  23. Andrew, I might add that I am a swing trader. The one exception to my rule is CEV. I am in this one long term and there are not many to be in long term in my view. Again, don’t chase CEV you will have opportunity to get in, be patient, 2012 will be a good year for this stock.

    Comment by dave — November 3, 2011 @ 7:37 am

  24. VGN, canacord took part of that huge bid they had at .15 and moved it up to .17, they left 55k at .15 still. They want in bad.

    Comment by dave — November 3, 2011 @ 7:48 am

  25. Canacord wants into VGN in a desparate way!! Although the news release was not all that impressive, I feel that there is more going on at the moment that has not been told YET!! VGN’s Nechako lands are in an area that is under considerable consolidation, with New Gold snapping up every jr around. Could VGN be a target? I do not believe that Tony would sell the entire company, BUT this could be the begining of the spin off of assets, time will tell. Also, could some company INSIDERS be purchasing in anticipation of the yearly run up in share price?? I see nothing but blue skies ahead for VGN.

    Comment by John — November 3, 2011 @ 9:07 am

  26. Ed, sorry please disregard my comments at 11 – I was confused between VGD and AGE!

    Comment by Andrew — November 5, 2011 @ 12:53 pm

  27. Iam glad I got out of CQX and VGD before the big drop.Iam into MTU SOL PDG now Iam seeing green instead of red.What a nice change.

    Comment by gil — November 7, 2011 @ 2:18 pm

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