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December 8, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is jumping around a bit this morning as the European Central Bank has cut interest rates (though not as much as expected) and is implementing other measures, to counter the twin threats of recession and deflation…volatility will be the name of the game in all markets today and tomorrow given the euro zone situation…as of 6 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $3 an ounce at $1,740 after climbing as high as $1,758…Silver has jumped 26 cents to $32.77…Copper is a nickel higher at $3.58…Crude Oil has added 68 cents to $101.17 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 78.45…

Dow futures are pointing to a higher open as of 6 am Pacific with the ECB decision and a report that shows weekly U.S. jobless claims have fallen to a 9-month low…all eyes will be on the euro zone again today…the politicians will try to put something together that will “kick the can” down the road a little more and temporarily at least put the markets at ease…this a long story, however, with many more chapters to come…

The CDNX begins the trading day at 1539…the Index is building support just above the 1500 level and that’s encouraging to see…

Canada Rare Earths (CJC, TSX-V), which has been a superb performer recently, provided an exploration update this morning on its promising Goeland Rare Earth Project 200 kilometres north of Val-d’Or…10 holes have been completed to date with encouraging visuals including confirmation of the presence of bastnasite in at least one of the holes…CJC is drilling into a large carbonatite complex that clearly holds strong exploration potential, and many of the first 10 holes have intersected carbonatite and syenite alteration packages that offer real hope that a significant discovery at Goeland is possible…visuals don’t always translate into strong assay results, as we have often seen, so there are risks here but mother nature is so far giving CJC and its shareholders reason for optimism…no timeline given for assay results but our thinking is by January we should see something…the chart is looking strong and the rising 10 and 20-day moving averages can be expected to provide support…the stock closed yesterday at 61 cents…

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) released assay results on 20 more holes from the LONG Bars Zone yesterday…the numbers were consistent with previous results – wide, low-grade intersections – and tonnage continues to build…there are still some key roles in the northern part of the Eastern Extension for which assays are pending…it has been a difficult year for GBB, mostly because of inefficiencies on the ground related to a lack of personnel…nothing has changed regarding the geological potential of the LONG Bars Zone but the market has punished GBB for not ramping up exploration and executing better on the ground…there’s only one way to tackle the LONG Bars Zone and that is to go BIG and follow the Osisko model…it appears improvements have been made recently on the ground and it’s imperative that SGS, the company’s new geological consultant, delivers on an initial 43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone during the first quarter of next year…tax-loss selling has certainly been a factor with GBB lately but that will end in two weeks…if GBB plays its cards right, 2012 will be a much better year for the stock…there was good volume in GBB yesterday with the stock closing up half a penny at 16.5 cents…

A company that is executing extremely well on the ground in northwest Quebec (and Ontario) is Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which continues to be one of our favorite plays…an updated 43-101 resource estimate for Wasamac is expected within the next week or 10 days…based on this year’s drill results, we’re anticipating Richmont will be able to upgrade and expand resources significantly beyond what was reported back in February (1.4 million ounces in all categories)…2 million+ ounces appears likely…ultimately, the Wasamac system could be much larger than that if it opens up even more to the east and at depth…great potential with this…Richmont already has two operating mines (Beaufor and the Island Gold Mine in Ontario) with a third (Francoeur) coming on stream by the middle of next year…this is a company doing all the right things and creating shareholder value and wealth…RIC closed yesterday at $12.13 on strong buying pressure, giving it a market cap of $400 million…ultimately, in our view, Wasamac alone will be worth that much…by every measure there is still substantial upside to Richmont which is a true Gold growth stock…John updates the chart below…the technical pattern (see the blue circle) suggests a major breakout (a moment of “decision”) is imminent – perhaps not today, but very soon…we believe the breakout will be to the upside given the positive news we’re expecting from Wasamac and the overall “glowing” picture of Richmont

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) has been a major disappointment this year but for “bottom fishers”, now is a good time to have GQC on the “radar screen”…we were pleased to see that GQC cancelled its proposed merger with Takara Resources (TKK, TSX-V)…however, the stock suffered some technical damage during that messy process…with the dust having settled, GQC is sitting at just 7 cents for a market cap of only $7 million…this is when patient investors make money in the market…GoldQuest has been around for a long time and does hold a solid portfolio of advanced and grassroots exploration projects in the Dominican Republic…management has the ability to build shareholder value, so we’re confident GQC will recover in 2012…a 10-hole drill program is underway at the company’s promising La Escandalosa Project (near-surface mineralization) where there is excellent potential for 43-101 resources to be upgraded and expanded…could GQC drop a little more?…certainly it could, but John’s updated chart shows superb support at a nickel so the downside risk from here appears to be very limited…note that the current downsloping channel on the chart is very similar to the one in late 2008 which was also a good time to buy…GQC could jump in a hurry on positive results out of Escandalosa Sur during the first quarter of next year…

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V), which we pointed out recently, has announced a private placement financing of $1.2 million..what we like about Rainbow is that this is a fairly new company with a strong group behind it that wants to get aggressive in exploring a thoughtfully and strategically assembled land package in a rich historical mining area of southeast British Columbia…the capital structure is attractive (just 25 million shares outstanding at the moment) and the chart is looking very promising…we’re also extremely bullish on Silver, and Rainbow’s flagship asset is an under-explored Silver-lead property (“International”) with high-grade, near-surface historical showings…those will have to be confirmed, of course, and the company is conducting exploration on the property right now in advance of a 2012 drill program…Rainbow has a good “feel” to it and we have a lot of confidence in the people involved which is why (as a matter of disclosure) Jon has taken a position in RBW in the hope of a major breakthrough for this company…

17 Comments

  1. On the CJC new exploration data they could have thrown us a bone, basically rehash

    Comment by Dan — December 8, 2011 @ 6:48 am

  2. I agree, Dan. Actually there is less information in it than Chad McMillan sent me in emails. Then again, it is just an exploration update but it seems that a lot of investors were expecting assays even though it had been stressed that no results were back from the lab and the earliest would be next week.

    Comment by Andrew — December 8, 2011 @ 6:52 am

  3. Then they should have just kept quiet, no one likes a rerun

    Comment by Dan — December 8, 2011 @ 7:20 am

  4. Looks like CQX are having difficulty finding investors – they blew it by waiting too long. If VGD don’t have results that would support CQX the future would seem to be bleak for Cadillac.

    Comment by Andrew — December 8, 2011 @ 8:04 am

  5. Yes, there is less information in it than Chad was telling you. There is a REASON for it. Think about it!

    Comment by dave — December 8, 2011 @ 8:24 am

  6. I’m stumped, Dave. With the small number of sh os wouldn’t Chad want to use this as an opportunity for publicity just prior to assays?

    Comment by Andrew — December 8, 2011 @ 8:54 am

  7. Ok I give up riddler

    Comment by Dan — December 8, 2011 @ 8:56 am

  8. Then again, market sentiment is not good today and the number of CJC shares traded so far is not indicative of a sell off considering the recent gain in volume. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — December 8, 2011 @ 8:57 am

  9. correct Andrew, its low volume and a normal correction. Strong support is .50

    Comment by dave — December 8, 2011 @ 9:03 am

  10. Dave, that doesn’t explain why there is less information in the exploration update than has been disseminated to individual investors via IR. Chad had no idea yesterday what the market sentiment would be today – the nr was out yesterday evening even though it is dated today. So, I still don’t comprehend the reason for lack of information, no mention of the hydro thermal system which could have generated some excitement with potential investors unaware of hole GO-5.

    Comment by Andrew — December 8, 2011 @ 9:38 am

  11. Andrew – I agree with you about hole 5, I believe he does not want the stock to get to far ahead of itself. We all want the assays today, but they are around the corner. The stock also could have still corrected no matter how he worded it. The assays will be the catalyst for this stock. With such potential, this is the time to add, not be frustrated. Cheers

    Comment by dave — December 8, 2011 @ 10:18 am

  12. My sentiments exactly

    Comment by Dan — December 8, 2011 @ 10:19 am

  13. who doesn’t want a stock to get ahead of itself

    Comment by Dan — December 8, 2011 @ 10:21 am

  14. Dan, to avoid a parabolic blow-off, look what happened to silver last spring-ouch!

    Comment by george — December 8, 2011 @ 10:35 am

  15. I made money on that, solda few bars and rounds, good times

    Comment by Dan — December 8, 2011 @ 10:42 am

  16. Just got home from work, but wanted to comment on CJC. There are a lot of eyes on this stock. It is a story type stock that is getting traded on technicals right now and had a down day on light volume.

    60% retracement has it at .50
    .50 has the highest support number showing at this time.
    Friday she could dip lower and then rebound and close even creating a hammer.
    Assays could be out next week.
    Current chart pattern is indicative of a move up shortly, most times higher than the first move up.
    Chart pattern fits right in line with a move up beginning Monday, especially if the rumors fly that the assays on the first 2 holes came in.
    My DD tells me that the first 2 holes will be released first, followed by each hole at a time thereafter to keep fuel for the upward momentum.

    When a story stock like this gets noticed and has a strong uptrend and is followed by a normal correction and you see red, it is easy to let your emotions get in the way of the BIG PICTURE.

    I look forward to next week. Cheers

    Comment by dave — December 8, 2011 @ 10:23 pm

  17. I forgot to point out that there were 2.5 millions shares that traded through the float in the 60’s. There was a lot of accumulation going on there.

    Comment by dave — December 8, 2011 @ 10:31 pm

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