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December 16, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has firmed up overnight (this is an early and abbreviated edition of Morning Musings due to travel commitments) and as of 2:05 am Pacific the yellow metal is ahead $21 an ounce at $1,592…a lot of fear has come into the Gold market in recent days and that’s always a good sign from a contrarian point of view…while Gold has certainly suffered some chart damage this week, and as a result could ultimately drop another $100, $200 or even $300 an ounce, what hasn’t changed is its long-term technical and fundamental bullish posture and we’ll get more into that in our Week In Review over the weekend…

As of 2:05 am Pacific, Silver is up 31 cents to $29.59…Copper is a nickel higher at $3.30…Crude Oil has gained 31 cents to $94.18 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 80.17…Dow futures are pointing to a positive open with overnight strength in Asia and some upward movement in Europe…

The TSX Gold Index is off 9.7% for the week while the CDNX has declined 9.2%…at 364, the Gold Index is trading at its August and October lows where it should find support (at least for now)…the HGD reverse ETF is in a technically overbought condition based on RSI (14) and Stochastics (14) while the opposite is the case for the HGU which hit its June low yesterday…the right side of the trade at this particular point is the opposite direction of the crowd in recent days…while it may be hard for some investors with beaten-down portfolios to appreciate this, some high quality Gold stocks have been marked down at fire sale prices just in time for Christmas…just one example is Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) which will be releasing what’s expected to be a very positive 43-101 updated resource estimate next month for its Springpole Project (5+ million ounces?) in Ontario…the technicals show a very oversold condition with the stock trading well below its still-rising 300-day moving average (SMA)…GCU closed yesterday at $1.83…

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX), one of our favorite small producers, fell briefly below its rising 100-day SMA the other day which also occurred in early August and again in early Octobertwo previous overall market bottoms…so if the action in Richmont tells us anything, the last couple of days have presented a Golden buying opportunity…yesterday, Richmont gained 16 cents to $11.12 following an outstanding 43-101 Wasamac resource update (2.7 million all-category ounces at a cut-off grade of 1.5 g/t Au)…Richmont is currently trading at support within a symmetrical triangle as John’s chart shows below…from a fundamental standpoint it’s just downright cheap given projected 2011 earnings, growing resources at Wasamac, and a 30% or more jump in production in 2012 to about 100,000 ounces…Richmont has enjoyed a great year and should continue to be a star performer…

John’s other chart this morning is on Cap-Ex Ventures (CEV, TSX-V) which broke an 8-session losing skid yesterday by gaining 3 pennies to close at 85 cents…watch Cap-Ex carefully today for the potential of a confirmed reversal as CEV could turn around quickly and enjoy a strong finish to the year with the 85-cent financing possibly closing next week…the fundamentals are strong…notice how it found support yesterday near its 200-day SMA…

Disappointing drill results from Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) yesterday sent the stock tumbling to just 2 pennies, seemingly an over-reaction given the fact this company has been around for so long and will undoubtedly recover…that’s the nature of the exploration business which is why it’s so risky…the drill rig is the truth machine and unfortunately the truth hurt for CUI…now begins the rebuilding process for Currie Rose but it’s encouraging to see they’re looking at picking up a new project in a different jurisdiction…President and CEO Harold Smith is a class act who has always hung on to his shares and no one is more devastated than him over the lack of positive results at Mabale Hills and Sekenke…with $1.1 million left in the treasury, CUI at least has something to work with to get back on track…

The managing director of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy faces the prospect of “economic retraction, rising protectionism, isolation and “what happened in the 30’s [Depression]”, as European tensions again flared over suggestions in Paris that the UK’s credit rating should be downgraded before France’s…Christine Legarde was speaking after the governor of France’s central bank, in an attack on the “incomprehensible and irrational nature” of credit rating agencies, also angered London officials by suggesting the agencies should target the UK’s rating rather than France’s…“There is no economy in the world, whether low-income countries, emerging markets, middle-income countries or super-advanced economies that will be immune to the crisis that we see not only unfolding but escalating,” Lagarde said in a speech at the U.S. State Department as reported by the Financial Times last night…“It is not a crisis that will be resolved by one group of countries taking action…it is going to be hopefully resolved by all countries, all regions, all categories of countries actually taking action”…

On a more positive note, the chief economist at the Standard Chartered Bank, Gerard Lyons, made these interesting comments as reported by Reuters yesterday…”By the second half, stronger growth across China and other emerging economies should pull up worldwide activity,” he stated…”It will be a recovery made in the East and felt in the West…if ever one needed evidence of a shift in the balance of power, this is it,” he wrote in the bank’s preview of 2012…as if to underscore the point, Fitch yesterday became the first ratings agency to raise its measures of Indonesia’s sovereign creditworthiness to investment grade – just as financial markets are waiting for rival Standard and Poor’s to downgrade most of the 17 members of the euro zone…”The upgrades reflect the country’s strong and resilient economic growth, low and declining public debt ratios, strengthened external liquidity and a prudent overall macro policy framework,” said Philip McNicholas, a Fitch director…

Moody’s Investors Services has turned its wary eye from the basket cases of Europe to Ontario, revising its outlook to “negative” from “stable” and issuing a stern warning on the province’s hefty debt burden that has been racked up by lefty Dalton McGuinty and his tax-and-spend-and-regulate Liberal government…the decision, Moody’s said in a statement, reflects the risks surrounding the province’s ability to meet its medium-term fiscal targets…it noted the recent slowing of economic growth…”The negative outlook on the province reflects the softening economic outlook, Ontario’s growing debt burden, and the extended time frame to achieving a balanced budget,” Moody’s analyst Jennifer Wong stated…

18 Comments

  1. CUI

    We have bad news & good news, what do you want first ? The bad news please !

    Bad News is

    CUI results were a no show

    The stock price is now 1 + 1 = 2

    The charts failed us again

    Good news is

    There’s a roof up above us

    There’s food on our table & shoes on our feet

    Thank you Lord for your blessings on us.

    Comment by Bert — December 16, 2011 @ 4:41 am

  2. BMR – CEV %K & %D not quite ready for crossover.

    Bert – Wind up your chart please or fast forward your time to Newfoundland Standard time

    I just brought up the same chart & here are the slow sto. readings

    %k 5.02 %D 4.58 – good news it’s already crossed over. We are going up in the near future.

    Comment by Bert — December 16, 2011 @ 5:15 am

  3. Bert
    I used different periods for the %K and %D to get a more definitive crossover. Yes I believe it will go up in the near future.

    Have a good day.

    Comment by John - BMR — December 16, 2011 @ 5:33 am

  4. Bert – what values are you using for %K and %D? I can only get a intersection if I use 14,3 and John has used 7,10 at which point I don’t have a clue as to what the merits of either settings are? 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — December 16, 2011 @ 5:48 am

  5. Thanks, John, – didn’t notice your input before I posted.

    Comment by Andrew — December 16, 2011 @ 5:50 am

  6. Amdrew

    I use the default setting 14,3…. By the way did you take a position in CEV.

    Comment by Bert — December 16, 2011 @ 6:09 am

  7. Rainbow Resources Expands Land Package in BC
    09:00:27 12/16/2011

    Dec 16, 2011 (ACCESSWIRE-TNW via COMTEX News Network) — TORONTO, ONTARIO, December 16, 2011 –Rainbow Resources Inc. (TSX
    Venture: RBW) (“Rainbow” or the “Company”) is
    pleased to announce that it has entered into an option agreement that
    will nearly double the size of its Rhea Property near Nelson, British
    Columbia, to approximately 1,600 hectares.

    Comment by Martin — December 16, 2011 @ 7:50 am

  8. Hello Bert, Those are the default settings that I use too. I need to do some studying to understand the relevance! I enrolled in a TA course last Spring but just haven’t got it underway yet – a New Year’s resolution, maybe! I have a bid in for CEV but not sure if it will take. At one point I was next on the board but I took it off because Jitney and Anon were ahead of me and then suddenly removed their bids simultaneously so I thought I would try the same game! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — December 16, 2011 @ 9:25 am

  9. Hi Bert and Andrew.
    I am not saying there is anything wrong in using 14,3 settings, these are the rec. settings, but as a personal choice I often, not always, use 7,10. TA is as much an art as it is a science…there is not a right way and a wrong way…whatever works for you. Experiment, on paper of course, with different settings and maybe you will find your Holy Grail. GL.

    Comment by John - BMR — December 16, 2011 @ 9:48 am

  10. Hello BMR, you still think that CUI and their Tanzanian property are worth exploring???? LOL The CEO of CUI doesn’t seem to think so, perhaps you can BUY the Sekenke property for a few pesos and explore it yourself…LOLOLO JOKERS!! For MONTHS you have been claiming that the property is GREAT, now you must eat your words!! So, is CUI a BUY at .02?? LOL I loaded up yesterday and SOLD out today. PLEASE BMR show us another chart on CUI, ya ya ya they have been in business for 40 years bla bla bla. but will they REMAIN in business?? 6 years of digging around Africa, and NOTHING to show for it, now it is time to pursue OTHER opportunities!!!! GBB, SD, SFF, GDX, ABI, VGD, and now CUI!! But it’s ok to have ONLY 1 DOG in your portfolio!!!! LOLOLOL JOKERS!! How much has BMR made since 1st introducing your readers to CUI?? NOTE to readers, BUY CUI at .02, sell at .025-.03 Where is the chart?? Where is the support?? Where is the EXC– USE???

    Comment by John — December 16, 2011 @ 9:55 am

  11. Now it’s Rainbow resources??? RBW?? Is BMR looking for a pot of Gold or Silver at the end of a Rainbow?? LOLOL You want to make money on Rainbow Resources?? He’s my advice, SHORT IT!! If BMR pick’s it, you KNOW it is headed straight for the crapper!! Ofcourse it will rise and make money, but in time, like ALL other BMR ” pick’s” it will FAIL!!!!! PLEASE post a chart on Rainbow….. JOKERS!!

    Comment by John — December 16, 2011 @ 10:00 am

  12. Johnny

    Are you celebrating the Xmas season already ?

    Comment by Bert — December 16, 2011 @ 11:02 am

  13. Bert, if you made 50% ON $ 10,000 in 1 day, YOU too would be celebrating!! Just reminding BMR readers about the ” picks” that were SUPPOSED to be winners from BMR!!! Remember when ” Support” for CUI was .08?? LOL LOL HAHAHA

    Comment by John — December 16, 2011 @ 11:19 am

  14. John,

    You are one bitter young whelp. Have you considered a course in anger management? Or are you waiting for those elusive huge profits from VGN to pay for it?

    Comment by roger — December 16, 2011 @ 11:24 am

  15. Johnny

    I remember, in fact i have a memory like an Element. I also
    remember that you claim to have been making money all the
    way along, but you are not acting like someone who is profiting,
    instead you seem to be troubled with your losses. Anyway Johnny,
    it’s time to wish you a Merry Xmas & may i add, better days ahead. R !

    Comment by Bert — December 16, 2011 @ 11:25 am

  16. Anyone attending Sidons (SD’S) General and special meeting today in Vancouver at 1 pm. Any news to share? Does BMR have any news on this? Lack of communication? Have a good weekend…

    Comment by Arjan — December 16, 2011 @ 11:28 am

  17. Bert,
    I now have a position in CEV but I thought .91 would hold – oh well. there’s a gap at .87 to fill so maybe on Monday I’ll add if there is the opportunity and average down.

    Comment by Andrew — December 16, 2011 @ 3:00 pm

  18. Hi gang, just thought that I would throw my 2 cents in on some trading tactics.

    Level 2 is wonderful for entering and exiting stocks at the time or the day that you wish to do it. However, especially with CEV and CJC, lowering bids cause other houses removed theirs can get you snake bit and cause you chasing. Both are going to have great starts to the new year in Jan. Level 2 is full of market maker games on both of these to try and get some cheapies.

    Comment by dave — December 18, 2011 @ 10:07 am

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