Gold has traded between $1,725 and $1,724 so far today…as of 5:30 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $6 an ounce at $1,729…Silver is 28 cents higher at $33.87…Copper has gained 2 pennies to $3.86…Crude Oil is $1.11 higher at $99.78 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off slightly at 78.72…
Stock index futures are pointing toward a strong open after the biggest single-day point loss on the Dow so far this year on Friday, though the setback was only 89 points…markets in Europe are up by as much as 1% while Asian markets were mostly mildly positive…
The TSX Venture Exchange will try to get back on track after declining last week for the first time in eight weeks…the Index closed Friday at 1654, just a couple of points below its 10-day moving average (SMA)…there is also strong support around 1625, just above the rising 20-day SMA…the possibility of a 5 to 7% pullback over the near-term can’t be ruled out, given the overbought condition on the daily chart, but the overall picture is extremely bullish and a very robust March appears to be in the cards…the Venture’s 100-day SMA is about to reverse to the upside after being in decline since May of last year, adding further credence to our bullish analysis…this is definitely the time to be locking in positions – especially on any near-term weakness – in preparation for a major upside move that appears very likely…at the bottom of this morning’s report, John takes a look at three companies – Focus Metals (FMS, TSX-V), Geologix Explorations Inc. (GIX, TSX-V) and GoGold Resources (GGD, TSX-V) – with good prospects and encouraging charts…
Greece Approves Austerity Bill
Greece’s parliament approved a deeply unpopular austerity bill this morning to secure a second EU/IMF bailout and avoid national bankruptcy, as buildings burned across central Athens and violence spread around the country…cinemas, cafes, shops and banks were set ablaze in central Athens and black-masked thugs fought riot police outside parliament before lawmakers voted on the package that demands deep pay, pension and job cuts – the price of a 130 billion euro bailout needed to keep the country afloat…state television reported the violence spread to the tourist islands of Corfu and Crete, the northern city of Thessaloniki and towns in central Greece…police said 150 shops were looted in the capital and 34 buildings set ablaze…the citizens of Greece are paying the price for allowing their government to grow way beyond its means…
Not The Right Time For Austerity In America, Says The White House
Professor Obama will release an election-year federal budget today that is loaded with deficit spending and tax increases on the wealthy but avoids tough choices on the soaring costs of entitlements…the proposed budget would raise taxes by $1.5 trillion over the next decade and seeks billions of dollars for job-creating infrastructure projects, drawing a populist battle line with his Republican opponents…White House officials say the budget will propose a deficit of $901 billion in 2013, representing 5.5% of GDP, down from $1.33 trillion or 8.5% of GDP this year…Obama pledged back in 2009 to cut the deficit in half by next year, but his budget does not anticipate getting it back under 3% of GDP until 2018…overall, the budget proposes raising $1.5 trillion over the next decade through higher taxes on the “rich” with around half coming from allowing tax breaks for families earning more than $250,000 a year to expire at the end of 2012 – a longstanding Obama goal as he continues his class warfare politics and focuses on redistributing wealth rather than creating the conditions necessary to generate more wealth in America…government has run amok in Washington – Big Government is out of control – and has lost any right, in our view, to raise income taxes on a single person until it downsizes and gets its own fiscal house in order…in a stunning comment on NBC’s “Meet The Press” yesterday, the new White House Chief of Staff (Jack Lew) stated: “I think there is pretty broad agreement that the time for austerity is not today”…if it’s not today, when will it be???…certainly not under the current President…
China Kicks The Debt Can Down The Road
China has instructed its banks to embark on a mammoth roll-over of loans to local governments, delaying the country’s reckoning with debts that have clouded its economic prospects…China’s stimulus response to the global financial crisis saddled its provinces and cities with 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion) in debts – about a quarter of the country’s output – and more than half those loans are scheduled to come due over the next three years…
Charts
John has several charts to share this morning beginning with Focus Metals (FMS, TSX-V) which appears very close to staging a breakout…the stock gained 4 cents Friday to close at 81 cents…
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in FMS…
Geologix Explorations (GIX, TSX-V) has been very active recently with encouraging drill results from the company’s flagship Tepal Gold-Copper Porphyry Project in Michoacán State, Mexico…GIX has completed a Preliminary Economic Assessment study (“PEA”) and has initiated resource expansion drill programs to further test the project’s potential…the GIX chart looks strong…the stock was down a penny Friday, closing at 32 cents…
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in GIX.
Another situation we like in Mexico is GoGold Resources (GGD, TSX-V) which has started “Wave 1” of a new motive phase…the company’s promising San Diego Property in Durango, Mexico, comprises 71,000 hectares in one of the richest epithermal Gold and Silver belts in the world…management is strong with excellent track records…GGD closed at $1.60 on Friday for a market cap of just under $100 million…
Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in GGD.
FMS broke out! .95 good volume
Comment by pete — February 13, 2012 @ 7:04 am
What’s happening with the financing in RBW??
Comment by Steve — February 13, 2012 @ 12:00 pm
From what I’ve heard, Steve, they’ve put it to bed and news is imminent.
Comment by Jon - BMR — February 13, 2012 @ 12:05 pm
Breakout in ADI – I mentioned it last Friday in connection with CEV’s little run and fade which its repeated yet again today. ADI, I think has the potential to be the world’s biggest iron ore deposit (larger than CEV)?
Comment by Andrew — February 13, 2012 @ 12:21 pm
John,
Some selling pressure in AGQ, Arian Silver today and almost on the 100 day SMA – would this indicate an entry point? Thanks
Comment by Andrew — February 13, 2012 @ 12:47 pm
Thanks Jon, keep up!
Comment by Steve — February 13, 2012 @ 1:40 pm
Andrew
The simple answer is NO. I have prepared a chart to explain why not and what to do.
Comment by John - BMR — February 13, 2012 @ 1:56 pm
Thanks, John – you’re assistance is second to none! Maybe you could offer a subscription TA course on the BMR site (I would enroll today)? 🙂
Comment by Andrew — February 13, 2012 @ 2:06 pm
Any news update or news pending on gbb…very little discussion regarding this stock lately. All insights would be appreciated. It has been quite a long time!!
Comment by natalie — February 13, 2012 @ 2:20 pm
Regarding your commentary on the economics of my country:
Big Government is out of control – and has lost any right, in our view, to raise income taxes on a single person until it downsizes and gets its own fiscal house in order.
You are very wrong once again, and you don’t know the true economic history. We need an egalitarian capitalist society instead of the BS trickle down of the Republicans that has been foisted upon us since Reagan. How much good does a vulture capitalist like Wilbur Romney do us when he slices and dices ongoing concerns in order to extract the last dollar regardless of what it does to the company. When he takes his illgoten gains and deposits them in his Swiss or Caymen Island accounts, how would that benefit my country?
You guys are way off base. The concentration of wealth in the US, much of it obtained by fraudulent means, is one of the major reasons for our problems. The repubs with their wars and extravagant tax cuts for the well to do are responsible for many of our current problems. Instead, lets tax people like we did during the Republican Eisenhauer administration, give tax breaks to small businesses, and let real capitalism work. Its time to end the growing corporate running of our country. (BMR should look up the definition of fascism).
You fellas need to grow up and quit commenting on things that, apparently, you know nothing about.
By the way, thanks for letting me vent…….Carl
Comment by Carl — February 13, 2012 @ 4:57 pm
i will be a lil perturbed if financing for RBW isnt released tomorrow at some point. I was told mon or tues and I feel mgt(and ir) should be held accountable for deadlines set or told to investors. That being said, you think maybe they are delaying the NR so they can add some additional info pertaining to RBW? ie. land package, drill plans, etc?
Comment by db — February 13, 2012 @ 5:06 pm
Carl
BMR is very right, Big government is out of control they didn’t say democrats or republicans they said big government and they are exactly right.
The following is from Porter Stansberry, have been following him for years and he keeps on getting it right… sorry it is sort of long…
In today’s Friday Digest… a review of what I think are the most critical facts in our country’s looming currency crisis. Most people still don’t understand the risks we face as a nation because of our feckless leaders and their reckless ignorance of basic economics.
What follows are facts. Nothing in this essay will be conjecture or opinion. I will make no forecast – at least not in this essay. So please, stop the political name-calling… and grow up. The problems we face are ours. All of ours. It doesn’t matter how we got here. It only matters that we begin to deal with these issues – soon. If we don’t begin to solve these core financial problems, they will certainly destroy our country.
Today, our national federal debt far exceeds $15 trillion. This alone is not a serious problem. The interest we pay on these debts is small – thanks to the trust of our creditors, who, for the moment, continue to believe America is a safe bet.
So… what’s the problem? The main problem is the amount of debt we owe continues to increase at a faster and faster pace. This is exceptionally dangerous for two simple reasons. First, there’s simple math. When numbers compound, the result is geometric expansion. And that’s happening right now with our national debt because we continue to borrow money to pay the interest. And we have done so for about 40 years. Think about it this way: How big would your debts be today if you’d been using credit cards to pay your mortgage for the last several decades?
Even worse, our debts are compounding at an accelerating pace because we lack the political ability to limit the federal government’s spending. Please understand… I’m not pointing the finger at any politician or either political party. I’m simply pointing out a fact: This year’s $3.6 trillion federal budget is 20% larger than the entire 2008 budget. And while our government has grown at a record pace, our economy hasn’t. It has hardly grown at all. Thus, this will be the fourth year in a row we set a record for deficit spending. Never before in peacetime has our government borrowed this much money. And now, it’s borrowing record amounts every year.
This combination of borrowing record amounts of money (during peacetime) and continuing to borrow the money we need to pay the interest is setting the stage for a massive increase in total federal debt levels. Why is this happening? Don’t our leaders realize they can’t continue on this path?
Well… the problem isn’t so simple to fix. What we face isn’t a $15 trillion problem. It’s actually much, much bigger…
The $15.3 trillion we owe today is really only a minor down payment on promises the federal government made to its most important creditors – the American people. Not yet included in our debt totals are the $15 trillion shortfall in Social Security (thanks to the Democrats), the $20 trillion unfunded prescription drug benefit (thanks to the Republicans), or the $115 trillion unfunded Medicare liability (thanks to the Democrats and Republicans).
Most people ignore these looming liabilities because they obviously will never be paid. In fact, the federal government’s total obligations today – including all future obligations – is more than $1 million per taxpayer. And that’s if you assume all 112 million taxpayers really count. (They don’t. Only about 50 million people in the U.S. pay any substantial amount of federal income taxes.)
But here’s the funny part… While everyone seems ready to ignore these obligations, we’ve already begun to pay them. Our spending on Medicare and Social Security already greatly exceeds the $800 billion in payroll taxes we’re collecting to pay these benefits. (Total spending on Social Security and Medicare last year was more than $1.5 trillion.) And that means our actual debts will continue to compound faster and faster every year, assuming nothing is done to curtail these benefits.
I want to make sure you understand this fact: It doesn’t matter how much (or how little) Congress chooses to cut its discretionary budget. The promises we’ve already made to Americans in the form of Social Security and Medicare guarantee that our debts will continue to compound faster and faster, every year. How do I know?
Once again… let’s return to basic math. Right now, we’re spending (at the federal level) $2.4 trillion per year on transfer payments and interest on our national debt. That doesn’t include any of the other functions of the government – nothing else. Meanwhile, we are only collecting $2.3 trillion a year in income, payroll, and corporate taxes.
Let me make sure you understand this: Even if we cut every other government program – including the entire military budget – the federal revenue collected still wouldn’t be enough to merely cover the costs of our direct transfer payments. Not even close. And every year, these payments will automatically grow.
Here’s another way to look at the same basic numbers, but on a macro scale. Right now, total government spending in the U.S. equals $7 trillion per year. (That’s federal, state, and local.) Total interest paid in the U.S. economy on all debts, public and private, equals $3.7 trillion. The size of our total economy is only $15 trillion. Thus, we are currently spending $10 trillion (out of $15 trillion) on our government and debt. This is unprecedented in all of American history. This financial structure is unsustainable – and extremely unstable, given our debt levels.
There’s the bigger problem (yes, it gets worse). The political solution to our soaring deficits will most likely be higher taxes. Yes, technically that’s a prediction… And I promised no predictions in this piece. But let’s face it. You will never see the federal government make dramatic, meaningful cuts to its promised benefits – not when half the country pays no federal taxes and more than 40 million people are on food stamps. So it’s not really a prediction – it’s a political reality. Will higher taxes save us?
No. You cannot squeeze blood from a stone. The federal debt isn’t the largest obligation we suffer under. Americans hold nearly $1 trillion in credit card debt. We hold nearly $1 trillion in student loans. Total personal debt in America is larger ($15.9 trillion) than all of the federal debt. In total – adding up all of our debts, public and private – Americans owe close to $700,000 per family. It is not possible to finance our federal government’s spending via taxes because the American people are broke. Total debt levels in America are the highest – by far – of any developed nation.
Tax the rich, you say. Well, of course. But marginal rates in many places are already greater than 50%. Tax rates this high don’t work… They actually reduce tax revenues as people move their economic activities elsewhere to avoid taxes… or even simply forgo working.
Don’t forget, the very wealthy can simply leave. James Cameron – director of blockbuster movies Titanic and Avatar – recently did just that, buying a 2,500-acre farm in Canada. John Malone, chairman of Liberty Media, likewise told the Wall Street Journal that he bought a farm on the Canadian border specifically so that he could leave the country whenever he wanted. “We own 18 miles on the border, so we can cross. Anytime we want to, we can get away.”
Think I’m exaggerating the risks of real capital flight from the U.S.? Well… let’s look at the facts. According to the latest IRS report, the number of Americans renouncing their U.S. citizenship has increased ninefold since 2008.
How then will the government’s spending be financed? Well, I promised no predictions. Not today. But I will remind you that since 2008, the Federal Reserve has expanded the monetary base from roughly $800 billion to nearly $3 trillion. That, again, is a fact. Feel free to draw your own conclusions about what the Federal Reserve is likely to do in the future if the U.S. Treasury is faced with a financial need that can’t be met.
You may do whatever you’d like with today’s Digest. Feel free to pass it around to your friends – or anyone else who may be interested in these ideas. Be prepared for lots of nonsense about making the rich pay their “fair share” and pie-in-the-sky projections about how the entitlement system could easily be reformed.
Comment by GREG — February 13, 2012 @ 5:47 pm
db – I was surprised that there was no announcement of the financing closing today especially if it did close on schedule (7th February). I’m assuming that it will be announced with some additional news but if nothing tomorrow I will be concerned. Investors were advised that the second tranche would close on or before the 7th February. Maybe it’s a Valentines gift! 🙂 I’ve learned that no news is bad news.
Comment by Andrew — February 13, 2012 @ 6:51 pm
I wouldn’t sweat it, Andrew…..I was told it was put to bed last week….they may have been waiting for some additional news to include in the PP release, who knows, or maybe they had a bit of an oversubscribe mess, but I think we should expect something imminently.
Comment by Jon - BMR — February 13, 2012 @ 6:56 pm
Thanks, Jon – Not too concerned if it’s released tomorrow. Yes, I’m hoping they may have some additional news to go with it.
Comment by Andrew — February 13, 2012 @ 7:27 pm
Greg, I appreciate the copy and paste you did.
There is no denying that the US and the world in general are in a world of hurt. What the Righties don’t accept was that it was Reagan supply side economics followed by daddy Bush who ran our deficits skyward in order to give tax breaks to the very well to do.
Followed by Clinton, (sort of a sane old time republican in his alledged balancing the budget) followed by Bush Jr who let all fiscal reality escape. (Remember ‘deficits don’t matter’ Cheney?)
Obama is far too unprogressive for what we need now, but the alternatives to him are horrid. We need an egalitarian, effort and merit based capitalism. We need to bring manufacturing home instead of doing everything to further world wide corporatism.
What we need are old time republican values and not this weird suckup, Uber- right wing brand that we have now.
Regardless, with the obfuscation , lies and BS going on in DC, we’re doomed. GoldGrubGuns, I’m afraid. Carl
Comment by Carl — February 13, 2012 @ 9:08 pm