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September 19, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded in a range between $1,761 and $1,781 so far today…as of 5:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $3 an ounce at $1,768…Silver is 35 cents lower at $34.43…Copper is flat at $3.76…Crude Oil is off 46 cents at $94.83 while the U.S. Dollar Index has rallied one-fifth of a point to 79.38…

While some short-term consolidation is quite likely, as John has recently pointed out, Gold is in the midst of a move that ultimately should take it well beyond $2,000 an ounce by sometime next year…below is an updated 18-month weekly chart from John that shows the top of “Wave 1” is $1,900 while the top of “Wave 3” is $2,100 (Gold is in the first wave of a new 5-wave up motive phase)…fundamental factors, from QE3 to the increasing likelihood of an Obama victory in November, are strongly supportive of much higher Gold prices while Silver can be expected to rise at an even faster rate…

Frank Holmes at www.usfunds.com uses a standard deviation chart (a statistical measure of variability) to show that while Gold has been on a tear recently, breaking through some key resistance areas to move within shouting distance of its yearly high, bullion still looks very attractive in terms of the “big picture” with a low sigma reading of -1.7…historically, this has occurred only 2% of the time and underscores how much potential exists over the next year or so…

Deutsche Bank sees Gold exceeding $2,000 an ounce in the first half of 2013…the bank cites growth in the supply of fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar…“When one has accumulated too much debt, while the right thing to do is pay it back, the easiest thing to do is default and hope your creditor has a short memory,” Deutsche Bank says…“We believe the Western economies in general are biased towards the latter, whether they will admit it or not…we expect a soft default will likely be the preferable course of action; a managed form of currency depreciation through various stages of quantitative easing or successive bailouts by central banks of the banking system…this ‘easy’ scenario is good for Gold, in our view…we expect the Gold market to continue to respond positively to further central bank activity which in our view is likely to continue to be biased towards further monetary expansion”…Deutsche Bank adds that low interest rates are likely to keep making Gold attractive due to a “negligible” opportunity costs and longer-term fears of adequate stores of value and wealth preservation…

Analyst Calls For Gold To Hit $2,400

In one of the most bullish Gold calls since the Federal Reserve announced a new round of easing last week, one strategist sees a nearly 40% jump in the metal’s price to $2,400 an ounce by the end of 2014…“The new target reflects our view that the Fed will maintain mortgage purchases until the end of 2014 and will move to buy Treasuries following the end of Operation Twist this coming December,” wrote Francisco Blanch, a global investment strategist with Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note to clients yesterday…“Given the new open-ended nature of QE3, the upward pressure on Gold prices should continue until employment is strong enough to require a change in policy,” Blanch added…”In our view, this is unlikely to happen until the end of 2014″…

St. Louis Fed Chairman Concerned About Risk of Future Inflation

The Federal Reserve should have waited for clearer signs of a flagging economy before launching its new bond-buying program, the head of the St. Louis regional Fed bank said yesterday, adding that he would have voted against it…James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, also told Reuters that he is sufficiently concerned about the risk of future inflation that he backs a controversial proposal by congressional Republicans for the Fed to return to having only a single mandate: preventing inflation…the Fed currently has a dual focus on full employment and stable prices…in discussing his views on more monetary stimulus, Bullard said, “We should take a little bit more (of a) wait-and-see posture”…His comments, in an interview with Reuters Insider, highlight potential dissent on the Fed’s policy committee next year when he will be a voting member…

Japan Follows The Fed, Eases Monetary Policy More Than Expected

The Bank of Japan decided on surprisingly strong steps to further ease its monetary policy today following recent easing action by the Federal Reserve, as the central bank looks to tackle entrenched deflation, the strong yen, and slowing global growth…the central bank’s policy board decided to increase the size of its asset-purchase program, its main tool for monetary easing with interest rates near zero, to ¥80 trillion ($1.01 trillion) from ¥70 trillion, and also to extend the deadline of the program by six months to the end of 2013…while some had predicted that the BOJ would take additional steps, the combination of an expansion and an extension of the asset purchases was at the higher end of expectations…”The BOJ took more action than we anticipated,” Finance Minister Jun Azumi told reporters, adding that the decision was timely given signs of slowing growth in the Japanese economy…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were stronger overnight, thanks in part to the easing move in Japan…the Nikkei hit a 4-month high, closing up 108 points to 9232…China’s Shanghai Composite, meanwhile, bounced back 8 points to 2068…European markets are generally flat this this morning while stock market futures in New York as of 5:45 am Pacific are pointing toward a slightly positive open on Wall Street…

The Venture Exchange, still looking to push through resistance at 1325, closed at its high of the day yesterday at 1323…

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) Chart Update

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) is an excellent example of how sometimes the market just doesn’t know there’s great news just around the corner, a point Rainbow Resources‘ (RBW, TSX-V) shareholders should keep in mind in the event any of them believe the recent weakness in RBW is related to anything other than technical trading or the efforts perhaps of some pro traders (and posters) to shake a few loose apples out of the tree…leading up the announcement of GQC’s incredible hole at Romero in the Dominican Republic four months ago, there were no clues in the way the stock was trading that the company had made a magnificent hit in its drilling…in fact, the share price had been under some pressure…as soon as the news came, of course, the stock had a huge gap up and the rest is history…the recent weakness in GQC was also nothing more than simple consolidation – exactly what RBW has been going through – and this is something John had clearly pointed out as GQC fell about 30% from its high…there was nothing to worry about…

Yesterday, GQC jumped 23 cents on increased volume to close at $1.93…fresh results are expected in the near future, and of course the company now has its deep drilling rig in action which should prove interesting as all holes drilled so far have ended in mineralization…below is an updated chart from John that shows the GQC bullish trend is strengthening once again…we’re confident the $2 resistance area will ultimately be overcome…

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is waking up out of a long slumber, and the stock has finally broken above a downtrend line that has been in place since late 2010/early 2011..GBB released drill results from 43 holes yesterday, one of which returned 58 metres grading 1.76 g/t Au (included a high-grade section of 15.27 g/t Au over 6 metres)…six of the holes featured decent mineralized intervals of 100 metres or more…with a new geological consultant for Granada, GBB does seem to be getting back on track and there’s no denying the LONG Bars Zone has great potential to host a multi-million ounce deposit…investors will have to continue to be patient, however, and keep in mind – as John’s chart shows – that the stock has some work to do to plow through a resistance band between 14 and 18 cents…GBB closed up 3.5 cents yesterday to 14 cents on volume of nearly 1 million shares…


Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V)

In northern Ontario, Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) continues to make progress at its Sprinpole Project…yesterday, the company released additional infill drilling results which included 311 metres grading 1.81 g/t Au in SP12-179…this hole demonstrated continuity of mineralization 60 metres below the potential pit which was used in the calculation of the NI-43-101 resource estimate in February of this year…a new resource estimate will be coming out in the fourth quarter, taking into account recent positive drill results including SP12-179…

John’s updated GCU 2.5-year weekly chart shows the stock is now up against down trendline resistance for the fourth time in about a year…all factors considered, we do expect to see a breakout in GCU in the neat future…

Chart notes: Jon holds a share position in GQC while Terry holds a share position in GBB.


10 Comments

  1. something I hadnt considered …. with a possible new political landscape and the need for dough, will the US capital gains handling change??? hmmmm
    “My most considered thought about Q4 2012 is that ETF assets will explode, posting further gains above and beyond even Q3’s accelerating AUM growth. The largest driver of this expansion will be investors who wish to lock in the tax treatment of capital gains according to 2012’s regulations, rather than roll the dice on what may come in 2013 and future years

    Comment by Jeremy — September 19, 2012 @ 5:35 am

  2. So far me and one other are the only volume of the day on RBW… Suspect we may hit 18 again but I’m happy with anything under 20c.

    Comment by db — September 19, 2012 @ 5:53 am

  3. wrong db – you forgot our an ANON account that just dumped another 61k

    Comment by alex — September 19, 2012 @ 7:26 am

  4. Lol. If my post was up in real time it would have been true!

    Comment by db — September 19, 2012 @ 8:03 am

  5. Anyone see this yesterday from Jim Sinclair, Samsung getting into the mining business…

    My Dear Extended Family,

    This is a major game changer. It has taken place in a West African gold miner. It speaks to certain African countries as excellent investments. It underscores that prediction of 12 years ago.

    It screams at undervaluation. It is the recognition that gold mines mine money. This is a recognition of the dwindling supply side of gold. This is a recognition that gold is the only Honest Money. This is a recognition of gold’s role in high tech.

    The end of the bear market inflicted by the hedges on gold shares is absolutely over. The shorts in good gold shares after today are self destructively insane.

    This is it for good gold shares. The long bull phase in gold shares starts now.

    Cluff Gold plc
    (“Cluff Gold” or “the Company”)

    12 September 2012
    AIM: CLF/TSX: CFG

    Strategic Alliance between Cluff Gold and Samsung

    Cluff Gold plc, the dual AIM/TSX listed West African focused gold mining company, is pleased to announce that it has signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a long term strategic partnership with Samsung C&T Corporation (“Samsung”). This alliance commences with an unhedged US$20m facility to provide additional funding to Cluff Gold to further the development of its portfolio of assets. The Memorandum of Understanding provides a general framework for the potential long term funding of Baomahun and other development opportunities.

    The initial facility forms part of a wider strategic alliance between Cluff Gold and Samsung which is a global trading company. Cluff Gold has a producing mine, Kalsaka in Burkina Faso, and a strong pipeline of development assets which is expected to generate a long term production profile. Through this long term partnership Samsung will have access to a reliable supply of gold bullion, underpinned by the Company’s strong operational and management team whilst Cluff Gold will benefit from Samsung’s financial support. The relationship is expected to result in a significant financing in Cluff Gold’s Baomahun project, subject to the outcome of the feasibility study, together with an ongoing commitment to jointly assess other opportunities in the region.

    Under the terms of the agreement signed today, an initial US$20m of debt finance will be drawn immediately, supported by the Company’s interest in its Kalsaka/Sega project. These funds will be used to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and ensure the Company remains well funded during the development of Sega to continue the ongoing exploration and development work across its asset portfolio.

    Subject to the outcome of the feasibility study, the alliance envisages a further substantial financing for the development of Cluff Gold’s Baomahun project in Sierra Leone, which has 2.1Moz of indicated resources (25.6Mt at 2.5g/t)[i]. Baomahun is fully permitted, with work ongoing to complete a feasibility study.

    The Memorandum of Understanding does not require any exclusivity between Samsung and the Company in respect of further financing and is not binding on either party in that respect. Negotiations with other debt providers will continue in parallel with the due diligence undertaken by Samsung.

    John McGloin, Chairman of Cluff Gold, commented:

    “We are very pleased to have formed an alliance with Samsung as we develop our project portfolio. This agreement provides immediate financing support on competitive terms compared to other recent financings without the requirement to hedge any of our current or future gold production. More importantly, it also offers a framework for a cornerstone financing in the Baomahun project or other development opportunities, capable of satisfying a significant portion of the total Baomahun financing needs. The initial US$20m drawdown provides us with the balance sheet flexibility to use existing cash flow to fund our exploration programmes whilst maintaining development momentum at Sega and Baomahun. We look forward to working with Samsung as we deliver our Company strategy to grow into a mid-tier producer through the development of our existing portfolio whilst looking at other accretive growth opportunities in the region.”

    ——————————————————————————–

    Comment by greg — September 19, 2012 @ 8:12 am

  6. GBB real players will come in this afternoon…! SFF… so far so good today.

    Comment by Theodore — September 19, 2012 @ 8:54 am

  7. BMR,
    Does CQX still have potential this fall?

    Comment by Lorraine — September 19, 2012 @ 8:58 am

  8. CQX has proven to be hugely volatile, with some nice moves over the last couple of years….I do like their Utah Project, but they’ve had trouble sustaining momentum with it……..CQX is probably a good one to park away for a while, it always seems to be a great buy under a dime if you’re willing to hang on for a while, but short-term I see better opportunities out there IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 19, 2012 @ 10:01 am

  9. Sorry for the delay in posting, but I am on 12 hour days till further notice.

    DB – Yes, it is another buying opportunity under .20 – I had mentioned that it POSSIBLY could hit there and it does not mean that I am down on RBW. Although I and everybody else including Jon I think, is bewildered at the amount of shares sold by anon. I personally can’t remember seeing this go on for so long with another stock. I bought at .23 a while back cause I saw a shift in the trading pattern, but 2 days later I saw it change back again and I was quick to get out at .24 I still hold my .16 and .17 position.

    Gerry – working so much does not really afford me the opportunity to watch various stocks and therefore I can not give you a good one at this time. Right now, I am only able to enjoy the after hours catching up on everything.

    Michael – ABI – here goes. They have a lot of outstanding shares out. It would take substancial news out at this time to sustain significant upward movement. I say this as a trader cause thats what I do best. I am not a swing or long term trader. Short term, They did a bullish engulfing candle wednesday. The RSI just broke 70 – they are rated very bullish short term. They have very weak/minor resistance at .13 which is where she closed. My guess is that she is going to break above this thursday. If she closes above .13 she is going to have one or two more green days. You want to look for the shooting star candle, thats your que to exit, if your just looking to trade her that is.

    My last comment is to the posters that say Jon is not to fault. Heck, I even rag him about results not coming out until Nov. and I said this back in June. But it is simply my opinion of the timeline that I felt it would happen. It doesn’t mean that I am right. They could be out in october. Jon has spent a lot of time putting RBW together. Jon is not to fault for anything no matter how much he talks about a stock. Although he has been on the wrong side about the call going into the 30’s in the next week or so, you can’t fault him if this is truly what he believes. It is up to YOU to decide how to trade it and when to buy and sell. I bought at .23 and sold 2 days later when Jon said it was going to break out. No bashing involved, I did what I thought was right and not what anybody else thought. Many of Jon’s picks went green from the day he brought them out. You have a mind, and a BUY and SELL botton on your computer. Learn TA, learn stock houses and thier games, and most of all, anticipate what is going on and use your gut, the buy and sell botton. I meant to put in a buy order at .175 but didn’t, well I got skunked getting more cheaper. nuff said.

    Comment by dave — September 19, 2012 @ 7:50 pm

  10. With 3 hours before market opens, i presently feel unsure that my prediction,
    that RBW will move up, will come true. We could be in for a down day, especially
    since everything is down this morning, including copper down 0.07. Anyway, much
    can happen before open & i am hoping things turn around. By the way, if we have
    a down day & RBW moves up, that will be even more positive, but i am not holding
    my breath. R !

    Comment by Bert — September 20, 2012 @ 2:21 am

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