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January 7, 2013

BMR Morning Market Musings

Gold has traded between $1,645 and $1,663 so far today…as of 5:35 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $8 an ounce at $1,649…Silver is off a dime at $30.06…Copper has slid 3 pennies to $3.62…Crude Oil is down 47 cents at $92.62 while the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed slightly to 80.58…below are John’s regular Monday morning Silver chart updates, short-term and long-term…we remain very bullish on Silver for 2013

Silver Chart Updates – Short-Term and Long-Term

Short-Term Chart

Long-Term Chart


Today’s Markets

Asian markets were generally lower overnight though China’s Shanghai Composite gained another 8 points to 2285…European shares are slightly negative today, though bank stocks surged on news that lenders have won more flexible liquidity requirements…the Basel committee’s recast rules will be less strict than originally expected and will not be enforced until 2019…the market sensitive “liquidity coverage ratios” will also be less onerous…the LCRs mark the first time that global regulators have sought to require individual banks to hold enough cash and easy-to-sell assets to allow them to survive a short-term market crisis…futures in New York as of 5:35 am Pacific are pointing toward a slightly negative open in New York…on Friday, the S&P 500 posted its best closing high since December, 2007, following better than expected data from the ISM non-manufacturing index and December’s jobs report which showed 155,000 positions were added with the jobless rate holding steady at 7.8%..the fourth quarter earnings season kicks off tomorrow with Aloca, the first Dow component to report…there are a handful of other major companies reporting this week including Wells Fargo, ahead of the heavy deluge of earnings reports in the following week…there are just a few economic reports, including weekly jobless claims and trade data…third-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 saw a good many declines and, as a whole, profits rose just 0.1%, while fourth-quarter earnings are expected to rise 2.8%, according to Thomson Reuters…

Venture Exchange Update

Further to our Week In Review And A Look Ahead yesterday, what the recent action in the Venture is suggesting is that the underpinnings for Gold and base metals are very supportive given global accommodative monetary policies, a Chinese economy on the rebound and signs of stabilization in Europe…the Venture couldn’t be knocked down to a new 52-week low in December – it held critical support – and the psychology of this market could change significantly in the coming weeks…what we’re watching for is a breakout by the Index through a down trendline (around 1240) that has been in place since early 2011 as you can see in John’s weekly chart below…the RSI(14) trend is looking very positive and the red line is the 1,000-day moving average (SMA) that ended a four-year decline in the fourth quarter (very significant)…2013 is going to be a much better for the Venture Exchange in our view given these technical conditions including the double bottom, but investor patience is important as the Index works its way through areas of resistance…

Deveron Resources (DVR, TSX-V)

A few months ago, we alerted our readers to an interesting 25-cent Venture IPO that was in the works for Deveron Resources which finally started trading at the end of November under the symbol “DVR“…at the moment, Deveron has just one property asset – its Nechako claims in the Blackwater district, strategically located immediately above Parlane Resources‘ (PPP, TSX-V) Big Bear land package…as readers know, we’re bullish on this district in general as it makes sense geologically that it’s just a matter of time before a company makes another Gold-Silver discovery on top of the 10 million ounces of Gold (plus Silver) that New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) has already established…but what we consider to be Deveron’s most valuable asset is its incredible share structure…in today’s market, share structure is critical…Deveron has just 11,794,505 shares outstanding and Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V) holds two-thirds of that total (7,569,505 shares or 64%)…3 million shares were issued in the IPO and those are essentially the only shares for sale in this deal for the foreseeable future as Greencastle has to be viewed as a long-term player…the balance of shares (approximately 1.2 million) are held by insiders…Deveron has a very low burn rate and is also backstopped financially by cash-rich Greencastle, so we view the downside risk as minimal…the upside potential, on the other hand, is huge in our opinion, and not simply because of Blackwater…the group behind this deal has a reputation for finding significant projects and turning them into a success…Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) was a classic example as Deveron CEO Jim Pirie, a geologist, and long-time business partner Tony Roodenburg took Seafield from pennies and virtually no cash in 2009 to a major success story by late 2010 by vending in a Colombian Gold property…they eventually turned over Seafield to another group after completing a $15 million private placement and establishing a 1.5+ million ounce Gold resource…with such an attractive share structure, the possibilities for Deveron are exciting…what we’re expecting – given the track records of the individuals involved – is that the company will add a second project that is probably much more advanced than its Nechako play…success for Deveron will also bode well for Greencastle which at 10 cents is currently trading below cash value…Deveron closed Friday at 38 cents…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) Update

Over the last several days we’ve had time to review Rainbow Resources‘ (RBW, TSX-V) Gold Viking drill results released last Wednesday, and learn a little bit more about the Slocan Valley area…the high-grade Gold and Silver intercepts near-surface, including 17.3 g/t Au over 1.9 metres, are extremely significant especially when combined with important supporting information such as a Fugro heli-borne electromagnetic survey that revealed a very low-resistivity feature over a large area that corresponded almost exactly to a multi-element soil geochemical anomaly…this suggests a structural break that has acted as a conduit for mineralizing fluids…Gold Viking is located right beside Rainbow’s Ottawa Property which formed part of the Ottawa Mines’ production of nearly 2 million ounces of Silver in the 1900’s at an average grade of more than 60 ounces per ton…the interaction of the Slocan Fault, the Nelson Batholith and the Valhalla Metamorphic Complex may have cooked up cooked up something quite significant at Gold Viking in terms of both Gold and Silver…the early drill results show vein continuity and mineable widths…what’s rather remarkable is a company producing those kind of drill results from a property that had previously never been drilled…that’s highly uncommon in this industry…we’ll have much more on all of this in the coming days, but it’s time for investors to wake up as Gold Viking is for real…

Everton Resources (EVR, TSX-V) Chart Update


Comstock Metals (CSL, TSX-V)


Note: John and Jon hold share positions in RBW while Jon also holds a share position in DVN.

10 Comments

  1. Now RBw has resorted to putting the same nr out twice!!! Sad.

    Comment by Heath — January 7, 2013 @ 7:51 am

  2. usa graphite trades in usa only but has been flying on huge vol, their property is in nev but they just announced buying property adjacent to eagle graphite, this could draw a lot of attention to the area and good for rbw!

    Comment by greg — January 7, 2013 @ 9:15 am

  3. Heath, you should know better. What came out on the Nevada claims is a normal Venture bulletin, not a company news release.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 7, 2013 @ 9:32 am

  4. Whst ever you say jon. First time in two years iv had something like this sent to me on an old nr

    Happy New Year, everyone. As you all know, we have just made a high-grade gold-silver discovery in the southern part of Gold Viking which is still in the very early stages but is extremely promising as per our news release January 2. Few companies in this business ever “hit” on the first few holes of a property that has never been drilled before. Many brokers/investors were still away for the holidays as our news broke, so I do believe this story will start to gain traction and garner a lot more attention as everyone is re-focused on the market and volumes pick up on the Venture in the coming week and beyond.

    Comment by Heath — January 7, 2013 @ 11:12 am

  5. What kind of funds does RBW have left in the bank? They are talking about returning to do follow up drilling on Gold Viking and also a phase 2 drilling program at Jewel Ridge in nevada but may have to return to the market to raise cash for these projects. If nevada does not turn out decent numbers I would hate to see a private placement in the 10 cent or lower range and dilute the current share holders. Fully diluted already over 50 million shares outstanding. They seem to be very confident that Nevada is the big one right now, I hope for the shareholders sakes that they are right.

    Comment by Ed — January 7, 2013 @ 11:57 am

  6. RE : RBW

    I have follwed Rainbow since it was at 30 cents, buying into the theory that these gold jr. depend heavily on , mangement, management, and mangement, but it does seem that more good news lower price point ?

    ABI seems to have that same problem of management structure, seems to still be old guard ? Is there any insite as to why new directors resigned after such a short period

    TKS

    Anthony

    Comment by anthony m — January 7, 2013 @ 12:03 pm

  7. Heath,

    I’m starting to think you are retarded – Did mommy not give you your pills today?

    Please, so that we all stop losing brain cells after reading your posts, can you please get someone to check your grammer, spelling and anything else that comes along with typing out a full sentence.

    Thank you – my brain truly cannot take anymore stupidity.

    GO RBW GO!!!!!

    Comment by Avo — January 7, 2013 @ 12:11 pm

  8. A good article on why we won’t get a break out in the Venture just yet……

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1097321-headwinds-for-the-bull-case?source=email_authors_alerts&ifp=0

    The bulls have to contend with the seasonal patterns seen in past Presidential cycles. As the chart below from the Chart of the Day shows, the opening week of the first year of a presidential term starts with a rally, which we have seen right on schedule, and the market starts a broad decline into February. So far, the stock market’s behavior in 2013 is consistent with this historical pattern.

    In short, the bull case is facing too many technical and fundamental headwinds to see the market advance too much further in the short-term. I believe that we are likely to see a pullback at these levels. The bulls will have to watch how the market behaves in response to news, such as the upcoming Earnings Season and the political posturing that is likely to occur over the Debt Ceiling, in order to discern the likely direction of the next major move.

    Comment by Andrew M — January 7, 2013 @ 12:41 pm

  9. Excellent article by Junior gold Report on the Rainbow website.

    rainbowresourcesinc.com/pdfs/RBW-Article-Jan-6-JGR.pdf

    Comment by Dan — January 7, 2013 @ 5:50 pm

  10. @avo. Obviously makes you very angry thst I have been 100% bang on on my RBw calls!!!! It’s your baby I see and anyone that doesn’t ignore the obvious incompetence of management and stand in lock step with the blind cheerleaders is braindead. You like many of your peers have a horrible case of cognitive dissonance. If your not sure what that means maybe have your guardian look it up for you

    Comment by Heath — January 8, 2013 @ 6:47 am

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