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Gold is quiet so far today but holding above the $1,600 level…as of 7:10 am Pacific, bullion is flat at $1,606…technical support exists at $1,600 while the next important resistance level is $1,620…Silver is off 2 pennies at $28.88…Copper is up a penny at $3.43 after falling to its lowest level in more than four months yesterday on rising stockpiles and amid the bailout/taxation controversy regarding Cyprus which has unnerved many investors…Crude Oil is relatively unchanged a to $93.78 while the U.S. Dollar Index is also flat at 82.70…

U.S. Dollar Index Chart Update

The Venture Exchange and the TSX perform best when bears are in control of the greenback, but that hasn’t been the case over the past couple of years…the big question now is if the Dollar Index has enough strength behind it to blast through an important resistance band between 83 and 84, and there’s a good chance it does based on John’s 5-year weekly chart below (tomorrow, we’ll be posting a very revealing 20-year Dollar Index chart)…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mostly higher overnight, recovering from steep losses Monday…Japan’s Nikkei average jumped 248 points or 2% to close at 12468 while China’s Shanghai Composite gained 17 points to finish at 2257…European shares are slightly lower today…a German economic expectations index rose in March to its highest level in three years…however, the report also warned that the uncertainty regarding the EU/IMF bailout of Cyprus and the recent Italian election uncertainty could harm the German economic recovery in the coming weeks and months…also today, euro zone construction output fell sharply in January to its lowest level since 1997, suggesting the euro zone recession continues…in North America, the Dow is in positive territory after posting back-to-back losses for the first time in a month…as of 7:10 am Pacific, the Dow is up 46 points at 14498…the TSX has gained 33 points while the Venture is down a point to 1111…

Venture-Gold-CRB Comparative Chart

Below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John that compares the CDNX with Gold and the CRB Index…notice how Gold recently found support at a trendline that previously was resistance…CDNX RSI(14) is flat and near support at 29%…

Contrarian Call Update – HXD (TSX)

Last Tuesday, we highlighted the HXD – the double short S&P/TSX 60 ETF which was trading in the $7.60’s at the time…it closed yesterday at $7.79 and has pulled back slightly this morning with the TSX up in early trading…the HXD broke above a down trendline in mid-February but has been confined since then to a horizontal trend channel between $7.60 and $8.00…RSI(14) is threatening to break above resistance at 50…

Barrick Gold Shipment Released From Customs In DR

Barrick Gold (ABX, TSX) said yesterday that a shipment of Gold from its Pueblo Viejo mine in Dominican Republic had been released from customs after it was detained four days ago…Barrick did not provide any additional details…the shipment had been detained by customs authorities in the Dominican Republic on March 14, 2013…the delay followed demands from politicians and Dominican President Danilo Medina that the company renegotiate its operating contract – according to them, the country is not reaping enough of the economic benefits from the mine which was built for nearly $4 billion (U.S.)…this is another classic example of “government greed” (and stupidity) – is any country really a “safe” jurisdiction”?…

Cypress Braces For Defeat On Deposit Levy

All indications are that the Cypriot government will not be able to push through parliament a levy on bank deposits, a key but dangerous component to unlocking a $13 billion bailout from international lenders…a draft bill, seen by the The Wall Street Journal, would spare savers with less than $26,000 in their bank accounts from the deposit levy…but a Cypriot lawmaker, citing the island’s central bank governor, said that the tax plan in the draft bill would fall $400 million short of the $7.5 billion revenue target the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund had demanded…a second official, according to the WSJ article, confirmed that the plan wouldn’t meet the promised amount…Cyprus has said that banks on the Mediterranean island will remain closed until Thursday, hoping that the bank holiday would give lawmakers enough time to pass the tax levy through parliament…”It is an explosive political situation,” Nick Spiro, head of Spiro Sovereign Strategy, told CNBC Europe’s “Squawk Box” this morning…”This is a rubicon which should have never been crossed…This bailout agreement has Germany’s political fingerprints all over it…If Germany’s aim was that the larger deposit holders, the Russian ones, were going to bear the brunt of this, then obviously it’s backfired,” he added…

U.S. Housing Numbers Continue To Pick Up Steam

Groundbreaking to build new U.S. homes rose in February and new permits for construction climbed to the highest level since 2008, a sign the nation’s housing market recovery continues to gain momentum…the Commerce Department said this morning that starts at building sites for homes rose 0.8% last month to a 917,000-unit annual rate, in line with analysts’ expectations…

Wall Street Expects More Of The Same From The Fed

Wall Street has boosted its outlook for quantitative easing (QE) from the Federal Reserve and reduced its concerns about a recession in the next year to the lowest level in 20 months, according to the March CNBC Fed Survey…the 54 respondents to the survey, including economists, analysts and money managers, now believe the Fed will purchase $917 billion of additional assets this year in its open QE program, up from $858 billion in January…the new total works out to around $76 billion monthly, which remains below the current $85 billion pace…the FOMC begins two days of meetings today…