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October 10, 2013

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold continues to find support around the $1,300 level…as of 8:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $7 an ounce at $1,300 after falling as low as $1,293…Silver is up a nickel at $21.94…Copper has added 2 pennies to $3.23…Crude Oil is 80 cents higher at $102.42 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained one-tenth of a point to 80.48…

Some interesting findings in a report by the World Gold Council which commissioned consulting firm PwC to analyze the total direct economic impact of Gold toward the global economy…the report is the first to take into account the entire value chain of Gold, including Gold mining, refining, fabrication and consumption, in order to understand the role that Gold plays in economic development…PwC found that the Gold sector contributed more than $210 billion in 2012…the world’s 15 largest Gold-producing countries employed an estimated 529,000 people in the industry last year…

Of the total Gold supply of 4,477 tonnes, two-thirds came from mining, with the other third, perhaps surprisingly, coming from recycled Gold…PwC estimated the total value of Gold recycling to be between $23.4 billion and $27.6 billion…on the demand side, jewelry accounted for nearly half, 43%, with total jewelry fabrication and consumption across the top 13 Gold-consuming nations estimated at $69.8 billion…bars, coins, and Gold-backed ETP’s represented 35% of demand, central bank purchases 12%, and Gold used in manufacturing processes amounted to 10%…Gold’s impact on some developing nations is very significant…while Gold mining generates about $8 billion in Gold-producing nations Australia, Russia, Peru and the United States, it represents a whopping 15% of GDP in Papua New Guinea, 8% in Ghana, and 6% in Tanzania…

“If one were to add in the indirect value created by the Gold industry, the value delivered would likely be significantly larger; indeed quantifying this ‘multiplier effect’ would merit its own research report,” said Randall Oliphant, executive chairman of New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) and the recently-named chairman of the World Gold Council…

Short-Term Debt-Ceiling Deal In The Works?

Is a stopgap fix coming to the debt ceiling stalemate?…politicians certainly love kicking the can down the road…reports are circulating that both sides in Washington might be open to a short-term extension of the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit, giving them more time to resolve their differences while a partial government shutdown remains in effect…multiple House Republican members are preparing a proposal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling temporarily, for a period of 4 to 6 weeks, in order to buy time for lawmakers to nail down the specifics of a longer-term deal…the GOP is sending an 18-member House delegation to the White House tomorrow for a meeting with President Obama…the Associated Press reported just a short while ago that House Speaker John Boehner is planning to ask the House of Representatives to introduce a bill that would call for a short-term increase in the federal debt ceiling with no conditions attached…these developments are contributing to stronger equity markets today…

TSX Gold Index Updated Chart

Below is a 2.5-year weekly TSX Gold Index chart from John that shows an interesting double bottom pattern that potentially could be completed later this month…note the upsloping RSI(14) trendline which is encouraging…RSI is also currently at trendline support…the Gold Index hit an intra-day low of 164 yesterday before bouncing back to close at 169 (the late June low was 154, just above the 2008 Crash low)…as of 8:00 am Pacific, the Gold Index is unchanged at 169…


Today’s Markets

The Nikkei average jumped 157 points overnight to close at 14195 on the back of positive economic data out of Japan…China’s Shanghai Composite, however, slipped 21 points to finish at 2191…European markets finished sharply higher (as much as 2%) today…

The Dow and TSX are both up strongly so far today…as of 8:00 am Pacific, the Dow is up 200 points while the TSX has gained 130 points…the Venture is relatively quiet, up a point at 934…

Northern Gold Mining (NGM, TSX-V) is one of the Venture volume leaders through the first 90 minutes of trading…NGM reported results this morning from 21 holes at its Garrcon deposit (Golden Bear Project) east of Timmins, and higher grade mineralized intercepts below the existing NI-43-101 resource show potential for overall resource expansion…hole GAR-12-213, in particular, was encouraging, as it returned an 8-metre interval grading over 1 opt (38.35 g/t Au) at a depth between 287 m and 295 m…NGM is up a penny at 4.5 cents on nearly 4 million shares (all exchanges) as of 8:00 am Pacific

Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM, TSX-V) has discovered a new oxide Gold zone, referred to as Sumatra, at its Coffee Project in the Yukon…drilling intersected shallow, oxidized Gold-bearing structures over 500 metres of mineralized strike including 15.78 g/t Au over 3.05 m…the Coffee drill program is ongoing and over 50,000 m have been completed so far this year…many Gold-in-soil anomalies remain untested, and the company has had success targeting those areas as the discovery at Sumatra has shown…KAM is unchanged at 75 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific

Gold Standard Ventures (GSV, TSX-V) continues to push higher…as we noted Monday, new drill results plus a technical breakout above 70 cents were very positive developments…the stock is up for the 7th consecutive trading session at $1.02 as of 8:00 am Pacific

Updated statistics just out on Venture financings…year-over-year, they fell to $172-million last month, down from $415-million in September 2012…year-to-date, Venture companies have raised a total of $2.4-billion, down from $4.2-billion in 2012 and $8.6-billion in the heydays of 2011…

North American Nickel (NAN, TSX-V) Update

North American Nickel (NAN, TSX-V) this morning reported significant intersections of high-grade Nickel from 3 drill holes at its Imiak Hill discovery in Greenland…the company is finding stronger grades and widths at depth, and assays are still pending from the deepest hole drilled (MQ-13-028, below MQ-13-026) this year…initial reaction to the results was positive as NAN opened higher this morning (43 cents) but the stock has been under selling pressure since touching a high of 43.5 cents…through the first 90 minutes of trading, NAN is off 1.5 cents at 36 cents as momentum has waned – at least temporarily…

MQ-13-026 returned a 25.1-m interval grading 3.25% Ni, 0.48% Cu and 0.11% Co (from 149.81 to 175.32 m)…the best interval from MQ-13-024, starting 136 m downhole, was 14.9 m grading 2.67% Ni, 0.39% Cu and 0.09% Co…MQ-13-019, meanwhile, returned an 8.68-m section of 1.51% Ni, 0.43% Cu and 0.06% Co starting 118 m downhole…

NAN CEO Rick Mark stated, “We believe the Maniitsoq project is unique in the world. It is considered a greenfields exploration project, but it is a district-scale, Nickel sulphide project that has mineralization starting at, or near, surface containing high grades of Ni-Cu-Co and it is located adjacent to ice free, deep tide water suitable for year round shipping.”

Very good grades definitely exist at Maniitsoq…this is a significant discovery but the challenge for the company going forward is to demonstrate tonnage potential and that will obviously require considerably more drilling in 2014…

NAN is currently trading between 2 important Fib. levels (30 cents and 51 cents) as outlined in John’s most recent chart…since its discovery was first reported in late August, NAN’s 20-day moving average (SMA) – currently at 38 cents – has provided consistent support, so that’s a trend to watch closely to see if it continues…

Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG, TSX) – Too Many Cooks (Geologists) In The Kitchen?

If you were to gather 5 geologists in a room, you’d get 10 different opinions…Pretium Resources Inc. (PVG, TSX) got caught between 2 geological consulting groups yesterday…a disagreement between Strathcona Mineral Services Ltd. and Snowden Mining Industry Consultants over how a bulk sample should be handled ultimately resulted in over $100 million being wiped out in the company’s market cap yesterday…in our view, clearly an over-reaction by the market but an important lesson for all companies in how careful they need to be in the communications area especially at a time when there are so many nervous investors as well as computerized trading that can exaggerate downside as well as upside moves in a stock…

A degree of sanity is returning to the PVG market this morning with the stock up 31 cents to $5.18 as of 8:00 am Pacific

Joseph Ovsenek, Pretium’s Chief Development Officer, told Mineweb that Pretium was caught in between the two QP’s (qualified persons or independent auditors of Pretium’s geological disclosures) which had disagreed over how to compare a 10,000 tonne bulk sample to Pretium’s resources at the Valley of the Kings deposit, part of the wider Brucejack Project…Snowden, which produced Pretium’s latest resource estimate on the Valley of the Kings, wants results from the whole bulk sample to be used as validation, Ovsenek said, whereas Strathcona (which was managing the bulk sample program) preferred a series of smaller, representative “tower” samples…

Pretium came out with more news this morning in an apparent attempt to refocus investors…the company released additional underground drilling results from the bulk sample program, and results from exploration drilling in the Valley of the Kings to the west and north of the program area…Hole VU-279 returned a bonzana-grade half-metre intercept of 3,190 g/t Au and 1,485 g/t Ag…this intersection was 38 m southeast and 18 m above the Valley of the Kings discovery hole SU-12 intercept (reported earlier) which graded 16,948 g/t Au uncut over 1.5 m…

Pretium hopes its bulk sample will produce 4,000 ounces of Gold…he company will then use the bulk sample to complete a Brucejack feasibility study…

Contact Exploration Inc. (CEX, TSX-V)

An oil and gas play we’ve mentioned previously that appears to be on a very positive long-term growth curve – both in terms of its fundamentals and its chart – is Contact Exploration (CEX, TSX-V)…its rising 300-day moving average (SMA) at 22 cents provides strong support…the stock, which closed yesterday at 25 cents, has been trading in a horizontal channel between 18 cents and 28 cents since late last year…CEX is worth keeping on the radar screen for continued positive developments on the ground and, at some point, a potential breakout in the stock above that horizontal channel…sell pressure has been declining significantly over the last few months…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Note: John, John and Terry do not hold share positions in NGM, GSV, NAN, PVG or CEX.

12 Comments

  1. Important, a BMR request

    Hi Folks

    PLEASE forward this request to Stockcharts.

    BMR needs your help again….we need Stockcharts to add WRR.V to their database.

    On their website they have a special form for requesting a symbol. Here is how to get it.

    1. Go to stockcharts.com and you get the “Home” page.

    2. Enter WRR.V in the Symbol box in the top right hand corner.

    3. On the next page find “Request a Symbol” and click on it.

    4. You should get a form to request the new symbol.

    5. Make sure the Symbol you enter is WRR.V and don’t forget to add in your email address in the required box.

    6. Click on submit.

    Many thanks

    Comment by John (BMR) — October 10, 2013 @ 8:11 am

  2. 18.Hi Jon,

    Regarding Prosper Gold, I have red that field exploration is possible up to november at SV, let say they would come up with some good result with their 3 last holes, would they continue drilling during the winter season?

    Comment by Martin — October 10, 2013 @ 8:50 am

  3. GGI chart is looking good at 12 cent!

    Comment by Martin — October 10, 2013 @ 10:32 am

  4. Jon – did you say there will be another excerpt regarding GGI from BMR today or tomorrow? Hoping they will release more on the Grizzly regarding exploration work at about the same time PGX releases results on the last 3 holes. No volume on PGX today, very strange with assays pending. Very little liquidity which makes the stock very difficult to trade.

    Comment by Dan — October 10, 2013 @ 3:46 pm

  5. Yes, we’ve working through a lot of material on GGI and we’re assembling it as quickly as we can – imminent. Will keep u posted. Between the Grizzly and B.C. in general plus Mexico, GGI has a lot of moving parts to it, which is exciting. Keep in mind with PGX, the public float right now is very minimal – most of this stock is tied up through the 4-month hold or escrow. Which means if they come out with a glory hole, which is certainly possible given what has been stated to date by PGX regarding holes 4, 5 and 6 (S027 thru S029), you can imagine what will happen with the stock price in a tight supply situation like that.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 10, 2013 @ 3:57 pm

  6. From what i red on grizzly geological and geotechnical Assessment Report + entrevu on both side ggi, pgx, this could be just one large system connected together, at wich dept does is come together is the question (i am not a geologist :-p)

    Comment by Martin — October 10, 2013 @ 5:04 pm

  7. There is some very impressive surface mineralization (outcropping) on the Grizzly, particularly in the NW section of the property where the company is currently targeting their exploration, so I’m expecting to see some nice Copper/Gold numbers. However, in general, the Grizzly is covered by more overburden than the Sheslay. The theory is that there are “hidden” deposits on the Grizzly, which is why more historical exploration has occurred on the Sheslay. So which property will ultimately (potentially) host the biggest deposit(s), the Sheslay or the Grizzly? Keep in mind that one reason the Blackwater in central B.C. wasn’t discovered earlier was because of overburden. Tempelman-Kluit figured it out and of course the Blackwater ended up hosting a 10 million+ ounce Gold deposit along with huge quantities of Silver. You need special expertise and techniques to discover these hidden deposits; GGI has that experience and expertise. Are the two systems (Grizzly and Sheslay) connected geologically? Absolutely, GGI’s last news release provided additional confirmation of that. Earlier work also showed a pipe-like structure at central Grizzly. Those are excellent targets for deposits. There are probably more of these pipe-like structures. The scale of this is quite incredible – at least 2 parallel faults stretching 15 km from Grizzly Central to Grizzly West, related to mineralization on BOTH the Grizzly and the Sheslay. Think about that. Plus the Kaketsa pluton originates on the Grizzly. It’s not a dry pluton. It has impacted mineralization over a wide area, acting as a “heat engine”. This is shaping up to be a very powerful regional play with GGI in the heart of it, controlling the largest block outside of Teck which has nudged right up to the southern border of the Grizzly.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 10, 2013 @ 5:32 pm

  8. Yes it is scary, to bad they cannot worked on this project all year long!

    Comment by Martin — October 10, 2013 @ 5:45 pm

  9. yes i have seen teck position on DBV web site

    Comment by Martin — October 10, 2013 @ 6:01 pm

  10. This Sheslay Valley area benefits from the “rain shadow” effect, protected by the mountains to the west from a lot of moisture including snow in the winter. Winter exploration is very possible. It’s just a matter of the companies in the area being set up with winter camps. Lots of results still to come in from GGI and PGX with work still being carried out on the ground, and it looks like DBV is about to start drilling. PGX, I suspect, will do what they did at Blackwater – they made their initial discovery in late 2009, analyzed data through the winter, then started drilling again in the spring and ramped up throughout the year with an aggressive drill program over the winter. After about 1 year of constant drilling, including through the winter of 2010, they sold Richfield for half a billion to New Gold by the second quarter of 2011. That’s efficiency. This is leading up to be one of the hottest exploration areas in the country, and I predict that’s going to lead to 10-baggers or better here just like it did at Blackwater.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 10, 2013 @ 6:06 pm

  11. heavy volume on DBV for a cross today?!

    Comment by STEVEN1 — October 11, 2013 @ 6:11 am

  12. Spoke to a broker yesterday; they’re finishing off their PP in preparation for drilling at the Hat…adds to the activity in the Sheslay Valley…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — October 11, 2013 @ 6:16 am

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