BullMarketRun.com

4:00 am Pacific

Gold has traded between $1,329 and $1,342 so far today after surging to a 3-week high yesterday…as of 4:00 am Pacific, bullion is down $11 an ounce at $1,330…new support now exists at $1,320, previous important resistance…Silver is off 18 cents at $22.52…Copper is down 3 pennies at $3.28…Crude Oil has slipped $1.50 a barrel to $96.50 while the battered U.S. Dollar Index, which hit a nearly 1-year low yesterday, is up slightly at 79.37…

Reuters reported this morning that 1 of India’s biggest Gold funds will begin accepting fresh investments again after shutting off new buy-ins 3 months ago to support government efforts to curb bullion demand and control a rising trade deficit…they’re biggest challenge, however, will be to find Gold supplies…the government’s measures to slow imports (they fell to 7 tonnes in September from a record 162 tonnes in April) have caused premiums in that country to jump to $120 an ounce over London prices as supplies have been unable to meet demand…

Goldman Sachs, which previously insisted the Federal Reserve would begin scaling back its bond-buying program in September, now says the Fed will likely delay tapering until March following the weaker-than-expected U.S. unemployment number yesterday…“Although December remains a possibility, this report makes it more likely that the Fed pushes the first reduction in the pace of its asset purchases into 2014,” economists at the bank wrote in a note late Tuesday according to a report from CNBC…

Given the likelihood of more political wrangling in the U.S. early in the New Year, and the damaging affects that could have on the economy, and the fact that Janet Yellen – probably even more dovish than Ben Bernanke – is taking over as Fed Chairman at the end of January – Goldman Sachs is quite possibly still off the mark in its prediction…it’s conceivable that tapering may not begin until much later in 2014…in the meantime, the Fed may even decide to ramp up its QE program…private payroll gains averaged just 129,000 a month in the 3rd quarter, compared with more than 200,000 in the 1st half of this year…

The White House yesterday put a finer point on how the government shutdown and threat of default harmed the U.S. economy recently, saying it shaved 0.25% off economic growth for the 4th quarter and, so far, has resulted in 120,000 fewer jobs being created…Jason Furman, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the shutdown and threat of default lowered sales, steel production and the number of mortgage applications filed…he said the council look at a variety of data, including consumer confidence surveys, sales growth figures and claims for unemployment insurance, to arrive at their number…

Australian Central Bank Gets Cash Injection, Government To Raise Borrowing Ceiling

What is happening in Australia?…if so-called conservatives can’t be trusted to reign in government spending, who can?…the country’s new conservative government has given the central bank a multi-billion dollar cash injection, saying it was necessary to protect the nation from potential global economic shocks…the same conservative government is also seeking to raise the ceiling on government borrowing by more than $200 billion U.S. – this from politicians who were elected just recently on a pledge to end a string of deficits under the previous Labor government…Treasurer Joe Hockey said the U.S. budget crisis remained a threat and had “only been kicked down the road”…the “conservative” Liberal National coalition promised to restore the budget to surplus within a year of winning office, but has since scaled back that ambition to achieving modest surpluses within a decade…

Global Copper Demand Outlook Better Than Expected

Global Copper demand is improving and any supply surplus is likely to be small, according to Richard C. Adkerson, President and CEO of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX, NYSE). “The demand in China during this year has been stronger than many people had expected,” he said while speaking during a webcast on the company’s Q3 earnings.  He said sectors of the U.S. economy that use Copper are improving, such as construction and automotive. “And we’re seeing some initial signs of improvement in Europe through demand activities,” he added. “Globally, premiums for downstream Copper uses are strong. Consumer inventories remain low, and the demand side is positive.  Lots of things can happen that would change that outlook (for a surplus) as it has over the past 10 years when we were seeing Copper supply continually under-performing expectations.  In the longer run, the delay in projects with companies cutting back capital (spending) points to a supportive Copper supply situation.”

John has an updated Copper chart further down in today’s Morning Musings.

Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) Updated Chart – Breakout Above A Flag

John’s Fib. targets, including 860 on the Venture, have been remarkably accurate in recent months…with age comes wisdom, as they say…so we are particularly encouraged by his bullish technical outlook on Garibaldi Resources (GGI, TSX-V) which is rapidly gaining fresh momentum…it closed up half a penny yesterday at 13.5 cents, confirming technically that a new uptrend is in place…

Supported by strong fundamentals including:  A $4 million capital position, monthly cash flow from operations in Mexico, non-stop activity on the ground throughout this fall and winter, geological advisers that feature the likes of Dr. Craig Gibson, Dr. Peter Megaw and Charlie Grieg, and the largest land position of any junior (with pending new exploration results) in the emerging Sheslay Valley camp in northwest B.C., Garibaldi is extremely well-positioned to be a leader in this improving Venture market…

Below is John’s updated GGI chart which shows a breakout above a bullish flag with the next Fib. level at 24 cents (followed by 37 cents, not indicated on this chart)…expect GGI to challenge a resistance band in the near future between 15 and 17 cents but with moving averages all in bullish alignment, and constant action on the ground and the growing potential for an important discovery in the Sheslay district, there are many reasons to have a positive short-term and long-term outlook for this very intriguing company…GGI is clearly distinguishable from most of its peers on the Venture, and fits into that top 10% category we have been referring to…

GGI 1-Year Weekly Chart

Probe Mines Ltd. (PRB, TSX-V)

We were practically screaming from our rooftop regarding Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) during the spring when this well-run junior with a large cash position, a substantial NI-43-101 Gold resource and a fresh high-grade discovery to add to that resource, was trading around $1.20 a share – even after Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX-V) had just taken a 9.9% interest in the deal…of course during the 2nd quarter, no one wanted to buy Gold stocks which made quality situations such as Probe, Garibaldi and others so incredibly attractive…

Probe’s Borden Lake deposit in northern Ontario is looking better than ever, and yesterday PRB gained another dime to close at $2.22…once resistance around $2.20 is definitively cleared, next major hurdle is not until $2.60 with John’s Fib. target still sitting at $2.99 as you can see in this 2.5-year weekly chart…

Radius Gold Inc. (RDU, TSX-V)

Simon Ridgway’s Radius Gold (RDU, TSX-V) is sitting on piles of cash and recently commenced a drill program at its Santa Brigida epithermal Silver-Gold property in Mexico…look how RDU has broken above a down trendline (just like the Venture) in place since 2011…this is a classic bullish scenario from a technical standpoint…RDU closed down half a penny yesterday at 12.5 cents…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were weak overnight with China’s Shanghai Composite slipping 28 points to close at 2183…Japan’s Nikkei average got hit the hardest, falling nearly 2% (287 points) to close at 14426…European shares are modestly lower today while stock index futures in New York are pointing toward a lower open on Wall Street…

Venture 3-Month Daily Chart

Last week, John identified “lift-off” for the Venture as soon as it reversed sharply in 1 day after touching the top of a very strong support band between 913 and 925…the chart we posted last night showed how the Venture has broken out above a down trendline in place since 2011…also, the Venture confirmed a breakout above critical resistance at 955 which becomes new support…it should not be long (month-end at the latest we suspect) before the Index has decisively cleared the 955-970 resistance band and potentially penetrates the psychologically important 1000 level…in short, the Venture is looking better now from a technical perspective than at any time since the bear market began in the spring of 2011…

U.S. Dollar Index 2.5-Year Updated Weekly Chart

Looking at a chart of the U.S. Dollar Index is like examining the Venture in reverse…the 2 tend to go in opposite directions of each other…while the Venture has broken above a long-term down trendline, the Dollar Index recently broke below an up trendline in place since 2011…this gave us added confidence that Gold would hold critical support and that the Venture would push higher as well…

Updated 6-Month Daily Copper Chart

Copper has been trading in a symmetrical triangle recently and a key event to continue to watch for is a decisive move through the low $3.30’s where stiff resistance can be expected…overall, however, Copper is looking strong and completed a classic double bottom and cup-with-handle pattern over the summer…

Note: Both John and Jon hold share positions in GGI.