Gold has hovered between $1,322 and $1,334 so far today…as of 7:45 am Pacific, bullion is off $7 an ounce at $1,325…Silver is down 7 cents at $21.20…Copper is a penny lower at $3.22…Crude Oil is up 17 cents at $102.57 while the U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled nearly half a point to 79.84…
Gold is on track to post its best monthly performance since July of last year…boosted by a variety of technical and fundamental factors, including strong demand out of Asia, a drying up of ETF selling, weak economic data out of the United States, and turmoil (political and economic) in Ukraine, bullion has gained nearly 7% in February…stiff resistance, however, exists around $1,350, but there are near-term potential catalysts that could drive Gold through that level including a further weakening in the U.S. dollar…recent weakness in the yuan, however, is making Gold more expensive in China (the yuan fell sharply against the U.S. dollar today, the steepest one-day decline in nine years)…
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world’ largest Gold ETF, has accumulated just over 10 tonnes of Gold in February – the first monthly gain since December 2012 when it added a mere one tonne…between the beginning of January 2013 and the beginning of February 2014, this single ETF had shed an incredible 557 tonnes of Gold…China eagerly absorbed much of that as physical Gold shifted from west to east…
Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, California, summed up what’s happening in Gold very well in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “Gold has been playing its role as a great diversifier,” he said. “U.S. data has raised some doubts about the economy’s performance, and people are choosing to buy Gold as a hedge. This rally is for real.” Merk has $400 million under management and currently has 15.7% of its fund’s assets in Gold, up from 8.4% this time last year…
What Next In The Ukraine?
Armed men occupied two key airports in Ukraine’s restive pro-Russia region of Crimea today, a move that Ukraine’s interior minister called an “armed invasion and occupation” by Russia, stirring already heightened tension in the country…the Crimean peninsula has long been a potent symbol of Moscow’s ability to extend its influence via the Black Sea and a flashpoint in centuries of regional clashes, so this situation seems likely to heat up in the coming days – Gold bullish…
TSX Gold Index Updated Chart
This 12-year monthly TSX Gold Index chart from John shows RSI(2) in overbought territory at 88%, but RSI(2) levels like this have been seen before in this Index and for extended periods of time…clearly, an important bottom occurred in the Gold Index in December at 149 – interestingly, about six months after the Venture bottomed at 859 last June (if you recall, the Venture topped out at 2465 in early 2011 almost exactly six months before the Gold Index hit an all-time high of nearly 460)…
John has cautioned readers to be careful about the “Golden Cross” (when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA)…that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now in the TSX Gold Index…a “Golden Cross” occurred in late 2012 and gave a false signal, but what’s different about this occasion is that the Gold Index’s 200-day SMA is just now beginning to reverse to the upside – a very bullish development that typically indicates a major change in trend…
Key resistance on the Gold Index is around 210 – a move through that area would likely spark a rally up to the 225-240 resistance band…
Today’s Markets
Asia
A late in China’s Shanghai Composite allowed it to post a 9-point gain and finish February in the green, closing at 2056…Japan’s Nikkei slipped 82 points to finish February at 14841…the latest economic data which indicated that the world’s third largest economy was off to a great start for 2014 did little to help the Nikkei…January retail sales figures beat expectations to rise an annual 4.4%, the fastest annual gain since April 2012…industrial output data also soared 4% in January, marking a second straight month of gains…
Europe
European shares have reversed to the upside in late trading overseas…
North America
The Dow is up 80 points as of 7:45 am Pacific…the U.S. government slashed its estimate for fourth quarter growth as consumer spending and exports were less robust than initially thought, leaving the economy on a more sustainable path of modest expansion…GDP expanded at a 2.4% annual rate, the Commerce Department reported this morning…that was down sharply from the 3.2% reported last month and the 4.1% logged in the third quarter…economists polled by Reuters had expected growth would be revised downward in the fourth quarter to a 2.5% pace…
Fed Chair Janet Yellen told lawmakers yesterday that severe weather had played a role in the weakening of recent U.S. economic data…she said, however, that it would take a “significant change” to the economy’s prospects for the Fed to put on hold its plans to wind down its bond buying…the Fed has trimmed its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion at each of its previous two meetings…its next meeting is scheduled for March 19…
The TSX is up 43 points through the first 75 minutes of trading while the Venture has added 2 points to 1021…
Abcourt Mines Inc. (ABI, TSX-V) Updated Chart
Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V), which has been doing an admirable job advancing its Elder Mine near Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, to commercial production, has broken above a long-term downtrend line, though this requires confirmation today…what’s also notable about this chart is the growing accumulation in the stock since October of last year as demonstrated by the CMF indicator…with the potential for even firmer Gold prices, and a weak Canadian dollar, Abcourt could be in for a strong 2014 with Elder expected to reach full production capacity during the first half of this year…ABI is unchanged at 9 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific…
High North Resources (HN, TSX-V) Chart Update
High North Resources (HN, TSX-V) has enjoyed a strong month, climbing 52% after yesterday’s 67-cent close…a few weeks ago, the company reported that it has started to receive sales revenue from its first two Montney horizontal wells…they were flowing oil with combined preliminary rates exceeding a total of 350 barrels of oil per day over a seven-day period…
Technically, HN over the last eight trading sessions has been trying to overcome resistance around 70 cents (it hit an all-time high of 74 cents intra-day last Friday) following an important breakout above 48 cents at the beginning of the month…below is a 1-year weekly chart…today’s trading should give a good indication if HN has enough energy to push through this resistance or if it’s temporarily running out of steam and needs to consolidate its recent gains for at least a brief period…it’s up 3 pennies at 70 cents as of 7:45 am Pacific…
Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG, TSX) Drills Into More High-Grade At Kinsley Mountain
Nice move in Pilot Gold (PLG, TSX) yesterday which surged 26 cents to close at $1.58 after the company reported strong results including a 41.7 m intersection grading 6.85 g/t Au at its Kinsley Mountain West Flank target in eastern Nevada to follow up on a recent high-grade discovery (PLG holds a majority interest in a JV with Nevada Sunrise, NEV, TSX-V)…the high-grade zone is located in a previously unrecognized stratigraphic horizon below the limit of prior drilling…assay results from four additional holes, drilled 25 metres to 50 metres to the north and south of the two holes reported yesterday, are pending…
Kinsley Mountain hosts near-surface mineralization similar to other Carlin-style, sediment-hosted Gold systems along a 2.2-kilometre SE-NW strike extent…the property consists of 380 claims and 7,650 acres (3,095 hectares) and hosts a past producing mine with an extensive exploration database and numerous, untested Gold targets…
Below is a 1.5-year weekly PLG chart…notice how PLG broke above a long-term downtrend line at the beginning of the year, and then pushed through resistance at $1.16 earlier this month…the next Fib. resistance level is $1.72…PLG is down a penny at $1.57 as of 7:45 am Pacific…
John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in ABI, HN or PLG.
AIX – very active this morning, 2 million shares traded so far this morning.!!
Comment by Greg J. — February 28, 2014 @ 8:41 am
Greg, when you look at what AIX has, they cover the entire northern border of Prosper’s ground and a good chunk of the NW border of GGI’s ground…plus of course they have property to the south, striking SE from the Grizzly….this makes AIX a serious player in the Sheslay Valley and the last time Mike England got such strategic ground near Pete Bernier’s play, his company got taken out by New Gold for $23 million…so pay attention to this one, it’s going to rock IMHO…..Alix appears to be going all-Sheslay and it’s a wise move……some exploration by AIX, hits by PGX and GGI, and of course DBV, and this 3 cent play suddenly is making people 5 or 10 times their money…I’ve bought some and I’m adding more…yes, AIX needs to raise some money but they have the strength to do it with these key land positions…
Comment by Jon - BMR — February 28, 2014 @ 8:50 am
The PDAC curse is right on schedule. Gold getting wacked, markets stagnant. Time to relax, maybe position yourself etc. Kaiser recently put out a chart that showed that each and everyone of the last number of years has seen this happen. No sweat.With my small trading acct. I had positioned myself I GGI as main holding, I was waiting for news on the mexico drilling before PDAC. Did not happen so I would then place my trust in DBV aas they should be the first out of the gates again. However now I think that I will wait on Jons interview with GGI.The reason? GGi seems to make the right moves, even slowly. They might have something cooking with another company? It will be interesting to see where they start the drills at the sheslay, do they gamble and drill recent property at east or in central grizzly?One has to keep in mind that good resuls only are great. It seems that this whole area might make a number of mines. Keep Just my rant for the weekend. Richard l
Comment by richard l — February 28, 2014 @ 11:42 am
Jon- thanks for the reply, Looking to add also, i would bet you’ re somewhere in the 700k bid at .03!! I think i will take some at .035.. Whats a half a cent these days lol cheers
Comment by Greg J. — February 28, 2014 @ 12:28 pm
Richard- do you subscribe to Kaiser? If so, is he following any of the Shelsay “plays”.
Comment by Greg J. — February 28, 2014 @ 2:13 pm
Jon you mentioned that people would become more aware of what was happening at sheslay in next couple days and fireworks etc!! Any more info on that?
Comment by John s. — February 28, 2014 @ 6:08 pm
Yes, I believe you’ll see awareness pick up in the coming days at PDAC, of course news could come soon from one or more of the major players there. We’re continuing with our research and we’ll be focussing more on the Sheslay Valley next week.
Comment by Jon - BMR — February 28, 2014 @ 6:19 pm
I have a feeling the way Ggi is trading I shoukd have waited to buy. Looks like it’s gona sell down a bit. If it does I think I’ll grab some more but I think time is on our side. I spoke with Steve from Ggi and although they sound like they are determined to drill at sheslay, it looks like it won’t be anytime soon. They do have several targets in Mexico drill ready however and I got the sense that management are dedicated to “hitting” and making things happen. So long term it seems like one of the better plays Iv came across on the venture but near term I don’t see the spark to send the sp up yet. Unless they have hit of course on their current drill program. I have a feeling however we woukd have seen results already had they hit a glory hole.
Comment by John s. — February 28, 2014 @ 7:10 pm
John, you disappoint me for a couple of reasons, #1, you didn’t offer an apology to Bert, and #2, you still don’t grasp the scale of what’s unfolding in the Sheslay Valley which is exploration history in the making in British Columbia. The story just out in the Northern Miner on Prosper is only the beginning of how the Sheslay Valley is going to reach out to the masses in the coming days and weeks, and if you want to wait until after that starts, and wait until DBV, PGX and GGI all commence drilling, you’ll be paying much, much more for these stocks IMHO. This is already shaping up to be one of the most exciting area plays B.C. has witnessed in years, and “world class” potential is rolling off the lips of the many geologists who are looking at this. There will be volatility but there is intense accumulation occurring in each of these situations and for good reason – the probability of more discoveries is clearly very high, and overall market dynamics are setting up a Perfect Storm. PGX and GGI both still have exploration news to put out on their respective properties, based on work completed last fall, and DBV is perhaps just a few weeks away from more drilling. So there are several potential immediate catalysts with regard to this play, and the market of course is a foward-looking machine. Massive area with a great chance for multiple deposits – DBV has the latest discovery and will be drilling first; Prosper has the most advanced property while GGI has the most money, cleanest share structure and controls the majority of the known mineralized trend. Each company has its own unique advantages. Then there are the “smaller fish” who could grow big out of this, and that includes ABR, AIX, FTR, RG and more to come. There are some rare occasions when it pays to really think big in the market – this is one of them. Old fashioned, rip-roaring, B.C. area play. It’ll bring a lot of excitement and drama to the market.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 1, 2014 @ 12:30 am
Jon
Thank you for that. My only purpose here this morning, is to
issue a warning to John C. Although i am a big boy & didn’t feel
as if i was being bullied, i do wish to warn him, that such behavior
on a continued basis, could be considered as being bullied, by some
people & someone could be libel. Out of being bored at times, i use
your board & have always felt thankful for it’s use. Although i feel
i have a vast knowledge of how the market works & because i don’t
ask questions, is proof that my intent was to only offer a mixture of
posts, from joking to more serious topics, while at the same time,
hoping to see a more active board. Since coming on board, a couple
of posters have responded in a negative manner to the way i post. I
don’t think i would consider that as being a problem, but when
someone responds with raw comments, i just want to give up. Because
i keep returning, is further proof that i enjoy everything about BMR.,
but there is a limit & i may have reached mine…Good luck to
everyone, even John C. R !
Cyberbullying
Cyberbullying is a type of harassment using new technology. Whether it is criminal harassment depends on the facts of a case. Cyberbullies use social media (such as Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube), blogs, texting, instant messaging, and other internet avenues to engage in deliberate, repeated, and hostile behaviour intended to harm, embarrass, or slander someone. Although their work is public, cyberbullies are often anonymous and it is often harder to identify and stop them.
Cyberbullying may also be defamation. The Criminal Code (section 300) outlaws publishing a defamatory libel – material published, without lawful justification or excuse, likely to injure the reputation of any person by exposing them to hatred, contempt or ridicule, or designed to insult the person. But criminal defamation is rare. More common is civil defamation – communication about a person that tends to hurt their reputation. Script 240, called “Defamation: Libel and Slander”, has more on this.
Comment by Bert — March 1, 2014 @ 7:23 am
Can we move past this, John made his comment, if he chooses not to apologize that’s up to Jon to decide if he should be allowed to post on here, I came onto this forum for insiteful information and sharing of market information. Bert your point has been made at least that’s the way I see it.
Comment by Paul — March 1, 2014 @ 8:33 am
@Greg, no I do not subscribe to J.K. at this time, I have in the past though. Richard l
Comment by richard l — March 1, 2014 @ 9:11 am
Paul
I agree it’s time to move on. I hope i made it clear
in my previous post, that i didn’t desire any further
action on this matter, everyone must be given a second
chance. Terry & Jon showed their support & i appreciate
that. All i am looking for now is a clear mind & i am
getting there.
To make sure this, in part, is a stock related post, go
GGI go ! R!
Comment by Bert — March 1, 2014 @ 12:53 pm
Thx Bert!
Comment by Paul — March 1, 2014 @ 12:55 pm
I think next week could be very interesting for Gold, Venture, etc….TSX Venture starts a new month so all the monthend stuff is over with!….PDAC! Spring could spring sooooon! Also, this Russia/Ukraine stuff could push Gold up alot!!!
Comment by STEVEN1 — March 1, 2014 @ 1:47 pm
Hey Guys. Your thoughts on what’s going on in the Ukraine and it affects it may have on the Venture (or all markets for that matter)? Gold may get a boost, but will the markets sell off in view of its safe haven? Pretty scary with whats going over there. Potential for WW3 🙁
Comment by Tony T — March 2, 2014 @ 2:18 am
Tony, what’s going on in the Ukraine is an example of what happens when you have an America in retreat, not even leading from behind but left behind. Russia continues to flex its muscles on the international stage and Putin – he’s dangerous – knows he can get away with just about anything. That may change come the next U.S. Presidential election, but of course that’s not until 2016. How will it affect the markets? Should be bullish for Gold, and gold stocks; I can’t conceive at this point how it’s going to have a negative impact on equity markets other than a possible knee-jerk, short-term reaction, unless the situation takes a crazy turn. I have a close friend who was in contact with her family in the Ukraine yesterday. There’s a lot of fear their at the moment, and the great people of the Ukraine need to be in our thoughts and prayers.
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 2, 2014 @ 6:03 am
Great article by Mike Swanson, big move in Gold/Gold stocks in 3 weeks!!! http://wallstreetwindow.com/wswmonthly/wswmonthly03022014.pdf
Comment by STEVEN1 — March 2, 2014 @ 7:11 am
Anybody out at PDAC today? send an update how busy it is,etc…talk of the town?
Comment by STEVEN1 — March 2, 2014 @ 8:52 am