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February 6, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has hovered between $1,253 and $1,268 so far today in advance of tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report from the Labor Department…as of 7:40 am Pacific, bullion is down $2 an ounce at $1,256…Silver is up 2 cents at $19.92…Copper has added a penny to $3.23…Crude Oil has climbed $1 a barrel to $98.39 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off nearly one-quarter of a point to 80.81…

Gold reacted at $1,275 resistance yesterday and its gains were pared back after markets digested the slightly worse than expected ADP jobs report…many analysts believe the ADP report is foreshadowing a disappointing payrolls number tomorrow after last month’s very low 74,000 rise…some short covering has been an important factor in driving Gold to the $1,275 area, but fresh buying will be needed to push it above that key resistance…if when a confirmed breakout through $1,275 occurs, “trend followers” will most certainly jump in…combined with additional short covering, Gold could quickly take out resistance at $1,300…that’s of course the bullish scenario…bullion has held up very well this week given lighter Chinese demand due to the Lunar New Year holiday…Chinese traders will be back in full force Monday…tomorrow will be a key day with the jobs report which will set the tone for next week…

The Perth Mint, which runs Australia’s only Gold refinery, said Monday that sales of Gold coins and minted bars rose 10% in January in the latest sign of firm demand for Gold bars and coins…on a broader scale, the transfer of physical Gold from west to east has accelerated significantly over the last 12 months…on that note, Jim Walker, founder and CEO of Asianomics, told CNBC:  “Physical Gold is disappearing off the market at a terrible rate. As soon as that really starts to hit I think Gold goes through the roof.  That’s one of our biggest longs for the year.”  Goldman Sachs, of course, has a different opinion but that’s what makes a market…

ETF selling, which was intense last year and one of the key reasons for Gold’s biggest drop in three decades, is now abating – what if ETF buying suddenly starts to kick in?

Tragedy in South Africa – Harmony Gold Mining (HMY, NYSE) says eight workers are dead and one is missing after a rockfall triggered a blaze more than a mile underground at its Doornkop site in South Africa’s worst Gold mining accident in nearly six years…

Long-Term Crude Oil Chart

Below is an interesting 10-year monthly Crude Oil (WTIC) chart from John…since 2010, WTIC has traded within an ascending triangle – at some point in 2014, it will have to make a decision which way to break…support in the low $90’s is very strong (ascending triangle and Fib. support) and another test of the $110 resistance area is very possible…with the exception of the 2008 Crash and the short period immediately thereafter, RSI(14) has held support at or just below the 50% level throughout the last decade…

Today’s Markets

Asia

Japanese shares reversed gains to close slightly lower overnight at 14155…

Europe

European markets are enjoying a solid day in the green…both the ECB and the Bank of England kept their main interest rates unchanged today…

North America

The Dow has surged 149 points as of 7:40 am Pacificfewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, according to a Labor Department report issued this morning, suggesting improvement in the labor market…first-time weekly jobless claims fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 331,000 during the week to Saturday…

The TSX is up 92 points while the Venture has gained 4 points to 947 as of 7:40 am Pacific

Below is a chart from John showing the percentage of S&P/TSX Composite stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages (SMA’s)…that percentage is not dangerously overbought – it’s now at 70.59% which is still below the peaks seen in 2010 and 2011, with room to move higher…it’s a number that should be watched closely, however, as the odds of a significant market pullback increase if this percentage were to “get out of whack” as it did at times in 2010 and 2011…


Discovery Ventures Inc. (DVN, TSX-V)

British Columbia is a jurisdiction full of opportunities in 2014…an interesting situation very worthy of our readers’ due diligence is unfolding in southeastern B.C. where Discovery Ventures Inc. (DVN, TSX-V) continues to systematically press ahead with its “WillaMax” Project which includes the Willa Gold-Copper-Silver deposit in a prolific geological area near Silverton, and the recent key acquisition (final payments are being lined up) of the the Max mine and mill just a one-hour drive north on Highway 6…both the resources and the infrastructure at this past producer are impressive, and DVN was able to negotiate these assets at a huge discount to real value – an underground molybdenum mine, crushing, milling and concentrating facilities, tailings storage facilities, mineral claims, mining leases, licenses and other holdings, not to mention an estimated $50 million tax loss pool…the mill of course would take feed from the Willa which has some nice higher grade material…check out the video on the company’s home page (www.DiscoveryVentures.com), and we’ll comment much more on this play next week…DVN has both near-term production potential and exploration upside…a tremendous amount of work and skill have gone into developing this company and this opportunity, based on the research we’ve completed to date…as always, perform your own due diligence…

In the meantime, below is a 2.5-year weekly DVN chart from John…DVN, with just under 40 million shares outstanding, has been in “turnaround” mode since last summer, and the 200-day moving average (SMA) has flattened out at 18 cents (new support) after being in decline since the middle of last year…DVN is off 2 pennies at 20 cents as of 7:40 am Pacific


Sheslay Valley Players Heat Up

Speaking of B.C., the Sheslay Valley continues to heat up with Doubleview Capital Corp. (DBV, TSX-V) staging a confirmed technical breakout and Garibaldi Resources Corp. (GGI, TSX-V) on the verge of one…Prosper Gold Corp. (PGX, TSX-V), meanwhile, hits its highest level (60 cents) yesterday since October…we’ve been conducting additional research this week and we’ll comment more tomorrow on the geological dynamics of the Sheslay Valley as its time to shine has finally arrived after being under-exploited for far too long…as one individual close to the situation told us yesterday, “This area has a serious future”

GGI Updated Chart

Garibaldi’s 9-month daily chart shows some impressive strength and momentum…a previously overbought technical condition has unwound, even despite yesterday’s jump to 22 cents, increasing the probability of an imminent breakout above Fib. resistance at 24 cents…keep in mind this company has not had to carry out a significant financing in five years, so there’s no warrant “overhang” or cheap paper that can impede this market which has created a potentially explosive scenario….as of 7:40 am Pacific, GGI is up a penny at 23 cents…

Doubleview Capital Corp. (DBV, TSX-V) Updated Chart

Doubleview Capital (DBV, TSX-V) has a discovery on its hands and a very fired-up President and CEO, Farshad Shirvani, determined to follow that up with more drilling as quickly as possible…DBV is in all-time high territory with a confirmed breakout occurring above Fib. resistance at 23 cents…below is a 3-year weekly DBV chart from John…

Zenyatta Ventures Ltd. (ZEN, TSX-V)

Zenyatta Ventures (ZEM, TSX-V) has managed to hold critical technical support and has also recently pushed above a downtrend line as you can see in this 6-month daily chart…buy pressure is increasing, and a bullish crossover has occurred in the ADX trend indicator…ZEN is up a nickel at $2.19 as of 7:40 am Pacific

Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI.  Jon also holds share positions in DBV and PGX.

9 Comments

  1. Hey guys, check up HN.V. Very good momentum and a huge land base out west.

    Comment by Mike — February 6, 2014 @ 8:06 am

  2. Still no comments on GMZ?

    Comment by Greg — February 6, 2014 @ 8:30 am

  3. Hi Greg, sorry, we’re not ignoring it, just so busy with the Sheslay play and other things on our radar screen which also include GMZ…we are doing some work on GMZ today and we hope to have something tomorrow.

    Comment by BMR — February 6, 2014 @ 8:43 am

  4. arc having a good day some see it as a 10 bagger

    Comment by gil — February 6, 2014 @ 1:28 pm

  5. I would not be surprised that the volume buys today in RBW was done by an insider. We will find out soon.

    Comment by Alexandre — February 6, 2014 @ 9:04 pm

  6. A Farmer died leaving his 17 horses to his three sons.
    When his sons opened up the Will it read:

    My eldest son should get 1/2 (half) of total horses;
    My middle son should be given 1/3rd (one-third) of the total horses;
    My youngest son should be given 1/9th (one-ninth) of the total horses.

    As it’s impossible to divide 17 into half, or 17 by 3 or 17 by 9, the
    three sons started to fight with each other. So, they decided to go
    to a farmer friend who they considered quite smart, to see if he could
    work it out for them.

    The farmer friend read the Will patiently, after giving due thought,
    he brought one of his own horses over and added it to the 17. That
    increased the total to 18 horses.

    Now, he divided the horses according to their fathers Will.

    Half of 18 = 9. So he gave the eldest son 9 horses.
    1/3rd of 18 = 6. So he gave the middle son 6 horses.
    1/9th of 18 = 2. So he gave the youngest son 2 horses.

    Now add up how many horses they have:

    Eldest son……..9 Middle son…….6 Youngest son…2 TOTAL IS…….17.

    Now this leaves one horse over, so the farmer friend takes
    his horse back to his farm.

    Problem Solved!

    Comment by Bert — February 7, 2014 @ 6:19 am

  7. See LXV NR……Very impressive for a company 9 weeks old.

    Comment by Dan — February 7, 2014 @ 7:08 am

  8. Bert, it’s great to see you back to bring a smile to us all…we were concerned you got lost in a snowbank!

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 7, 2014 @ 7:36 am

  9. RG.v Romios Doubles Its Holdings in Sheslay Valley, B.C. news

    Comment by ChartTrader — February 7, 2014 @ 8:13 am

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