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March 20, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,320 and $1,336 so far today, hitting a 3-week low…as of 8:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $3 an ounce at $1,338…Silver is 26 cents lower at $20.35…Copper is off a nickel at $2.94…Crude Oil is down slightly at $100.15 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-fifth of a point at 80.24…

The Fed’s tone yesterday was slightly more “hawkish” than expected, or perhaps there were some rookie mistakes by Janet Yellen in her first news conference as Fed Chair…as expected, the Fed cut monthly bond-buying by $10 billion and said they will slow purchases in “further measured steps.” Central-bank officials estimated the benchmark rate target will be 1% at the end of 2015 and 2.25% a year later…that compares with their December estimate of 0.75% and 1.75%…Yellen sees a “considerable time” between the end of the stimulus and the first rate increase, meaning “around six months or that type of thing,” remarks that some market participants found a little unsettling (a Yellen “curve ball”) with rate increases possibly coming a bit sooner than expected…Gold came under pressure as a result and the greenback strengthened…

Gold could yet power higher on heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia…leading members of Congress are demanding that the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe immediately deploy international monitors to eastern and southern Ukraine, according to Fox News…a letter sent by Sen. Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain, and six other lawmakers says monitors are needed to defuse tensions in Ukraine after Russia’s takeover of the Crimean peninsula…the lawmakers visited Ukraine last week and say Russia is using “provocateurs and intelligence agents to brazenly stir trouble” in eastern Ukraine as a possible “manipulated pretext for additional military action.”  The bottom line is that Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted and Russia is in an expansionist mode with no “policeman” on the international stage to confront him…

Remarks on Gold from much followed writer Dennis Gartman during an interview on CNBC: “I’ve quietly turned bullish on Gold for a few reasons. Firstly, beginning five and six weeks ago we started to see a lot of the mining companies –  even the largest Gold mining companies – begin to curtail production. That’s always a sign of an end of a bear market.   When senior management at the largest Gold mining firms throw their hands up in dismay and begin curtailing production, usually within weeks the lows are going to be found. Decision by committee is always that way. It’s slow; it takes time; and it’s always late.”

Updated Gold Chart

Gold appears to be completing a bullish cup-with-handle pattern, like some Gold producers already have, and this implies strong support between $1,270 and $1,315 as shown in this 1-year weekly chart…RSI(14) has unwound to previous support…


Today’s Markets

Asia

Asian stocks sold off overnight after Yellen suggested interest rate hikes could happen sooner than expected…China’s Shanghai Composite fell 28 points to close at 1993 while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 238 points or 1.7%…

Europe

European markets are mostly modestly lower in late trading overseas…

North America

The Dow is up 51 points as of 8:00 am Pacific…any pullback that has been related to the Fed since November has been a buying opportunity…the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, pointing to some underlying strength in the labor market…the four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility, fell 3,500 to 327,000, the lowest level since November…

The TSX has added 14 points through the first 90 minutes of trading…the Financial Post reported this morning that the Royal Bank of Canada is predicting relatively strong economic growth in Canada this year and next, although it says the loonie is about to fall even further, trading at 87 U.S. cents by the end of this year and dipping to 85 cents by the end of 2015…Canadian exporters will begin benefiting from a stronger U.S. economy this year and will get an added boost from the weaker loonie…

The Venture is down 4 points at 1035 as of 8:00 am Pacific…understanding volatility and how to deal with it are crucial for investors in the junior resource market…the Venture has clearly turned the corner as we have pointed out on many occasions in recent months – the technicals are overwhelmingly supportive of that conclusion – but minor pullbacks are going to occur along the way as the Index gradually moves to significantly higher levels as the year progresses…in a bear market, you accumulate during very oversold conditions and sell into rallies; in a bull market, you buy confidently into weakness and one strategy is to accumulate a trading position and a core position…it’s critical to understand resistance and support levels so you don’t panic on a minor correction and make a trading mistake…

This 1-year Venture chart shows a clearly defined uptrend with strong support at the 1000 level…this coincides with Fib. support and the rising 50-day moving average (SMA)…superb support for the Venture exists in the 970’s which for months was a level that provided very stiff resistance…

Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG, TSX) Update

Step-out drilling by Pilot Gold Inc. (PLG, TSX) at Kinsley Mountain’s Western Flank target in Nevada has intersected high-grade Gold mineralization, giving a significant lift to PLG recently and allowing the company to secure a $20 million bought deal financing at $1.53 per share…drill results support the fact that the Kinsley Project (held 78% by PLG) can host significant high-grade mineralization in the Secret Canyon shale, which is now becoming the primary target of interest for ongoing exploration at Kinsley Mountain…Nevada Sunrise Gold Corp. (NEV, TSX-V) has a minor interest in the project and has rocketed from a February low of under 20 cents to a recent high of 96 cents…NEV is up a penny at 89 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific…it has 19 million shares outstanding after a recent rollback and an early March financing at 35 cents for just over $1 million (3 million shares)…

Below is a 1.5-year weekly PLG chart from John…at $1.53, the stock is resting at the Fib. 50% support level and the 20-day rising moving average…one would expect that support to hold as the financing is completed (scheduled to close on or about April 2)…Fib. 28.2% support is at $1.37, slightly above the rising 50-day SMA…as always, perform your own due diligence…overall, this situation looks very promising but that doesn’t rule out a potential pullback before the uptrend resumes…

WestKam Gold Corp. (WKG, TSX-V) Update

Yet another British Columbia company worthy of our readers’ due diligence, which we first mentioned last month, is WestKam Gold Corp. (WKG, TSX-V)…WKG has been trading between 4 and 5 cents since the end of January…the company’s Bonaparte Gold Project covers more than 2,000 hectares of largely unexplored ground about a one hour drive north of Kamloops and approximately 40 km north of New Gold Inc.’s (NGD, TSX) New Afton mine…what’s interesting about WKG is that a 3D IP survey completed last fall extended the exploration target of a high-grade discovery Gold zone (historical drill results, for example intersected 143 g/t Au over 1.2 m and 115.5 g/t Au over 1.1 m) and also located a multi-phase intrusive structure and anomalies indicative of a large Copper-Gold porphyry intrusive…in fact, the potential for a Copper- Gold porphyry system was recognized by the B.C. Geological Survey in a 2013 report…

Technically, John’s 3-year weekly WKG chart shows a breakout above a long-term downtrend line…RSI(14) is hovering around resistance at 50%, so that’s a key level to watch…strong sell pressure late last year has turned into buy pressure, so accumulation is picking up and we’re seeing that in the volume…this could develop into a very interesting play in 2014, and it’s trading under a nickel with 49.5 million shares outstanding…


Aldrin Resources Corp. (ALN, TSX-V) Update

Aldrin Resources Corp. (ALN, TSX-V) has been held back by significant share dilution over the last year (more than a doubling of the O/S) but the company does have some excellent uranium prospects in the Athabasca basin and is mobilizing for a drill program (starting within a few days) comprising as much as 4,000 m…targets are coincident structure, radon, magnetic, basement conductor and gravity anomaly signatures, consistent with uranium deposits elsewhere in the region…technically, ALN is looking healthier these days and could be gearing up to challenge chart resistance at 14 cents…however, immediate Fib. resistance exists at 10 cents which coincides with the declining 200-day SMA…ALN may rise a little on speculation but ultimately it’s going to have to deliver results…ALN is unchanged at 9.5 cents as of 8:00 am Pacific

Note: Jon holds a share position in WKG.

7 Comments

  1. Hi BMR,
    You have CMB.V on one of your lists.
    They have just comming out with good news:
    cmcmetals.ca/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=642779
    What is you comments on this play, BMR?
    Kind Regards

    Comment by Bosse — March 20, 2014 @ 11:19 am

  2. Aix look much better than ABR as far as technical is concern, i am surprise with the low volume with ABR about only 300 000 shares trade in the last two week as DBV is about to start drilling.

    Comment by Martin — March 20, 2014 @ 6:29 pm

  3. Also VVN seems to have a very promissing project west of grizzly, to bad management is weak!

    Comment by Martin — March 20, 2014 @ 6:32 pm

  4. VVN has an enormous opportunity; however, you’re right, Martin, management simply does not have the ability to move the ball forward, so to speak – it is a classic example of a Venture “lifestyle” company. If new management were to come in, would be a game-changer. No evidence of that yet, however.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 20, 2014 @ 7:47 pm

  5. Next week i will had to my position i already how Aix and Abr about 2:1 ratio. I haven fix my mind between Addind to my Aix or stepping into RG to diversified my positions. I tend to like better Aix beacause they are 100 percent sheeslay and moving aggresively. What do you thing Jon, Rg seem to have some pretty advance project in BC but many share outstanding.

    Comment by Martin — March 20, 2014 @ 8:16 pm

  6. Not that i would be exactly diversifies but anyway 🙂

    Comment by Martin — March 20, 2014 @ 8:21 pm

  7. I like your website- Do you follow solar companies at all? If so you might want to look at Qsolar.net- trades under the symbol QSL.C
    They have developed what I think is game changing solar panel technology– best regards-

    Comment by Brian — March 22, 2014 @ 7:29 am

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