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September 19, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings From Rouyn-Noranda

Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec

Gold has traded in a range between $1,775 and $1,828 so far today…as of 12:15 pm Eastern, the yellow metal is down $27 an ounce at $1,785…Silver is off $1.12 at $39.54…Copper has fallen 15 cents to $3.78…Crude Oil is off $2.35 to $85.61 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-fifth of a point to 77.25…media reports based on European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund data show that European central banks have bought a net 0.8 tons of Gold since the beginning of this year…according to Commerzbank, this would be the first time in over 20 years that European central banks are buying more Gold than they are selling…the emerging markets of China and India now collectively account for more than half of global Gold demand, and their consumption is likely to keep rising as their populaces become more prosperous, said an official with the World Gold Council…“There is a continuing surge of demand coming from the emerging markets, led by India and China,” said Jason Toussaint, managing director, U.S. and investment, for the WGC…“Those two economies are growing extremely rapidly”…all eyes are on the Fed this week with markets participants overwhelmingly banking on the Federal Reserve to deliver a new program to bolster the U.S. economy after meetings tomorrow and Wednesday…Bernanke is expected to launch Operation Twist in which it buys longer-dated Treasury bonds in an effort to drive down interest rates…this will require some co-ordination with the Treasury Department in order to be effective…President Obama is proposing a more than $3 trillion plan to shrink U.S. debt with roughly half of the money coming from tax increases on the wealthy and corporations…it’s very refreshing to start to see some Canadian journalists, most of whom are generally considered very liberal, waking up to how incompetent this American president is…check out Rex Murphy’s column in Saturday’s National Post (quote:  “…the flaws and failures of what is turning out to be one of the most miserable performances in the the modern history of the American presidency”)…nice job, Rex…

The CDNX as of 12:15 pm Eastern is off 22 points at 1741…the TSX Gold Index, meanwhile, continues to perform well as producers are definitely in favor at the moment…the Gold Index is currently up 3 points at 432…John sees the possibility of a minor pullback in the Gold Index from current levels before the start of a potentially explosive “Wave 5” phase as the chart below explains…

Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) has made a friendly takeover offer of $275 million for Grayd Resource Corp. (GYD, TSX-V)…this is the kind of activity that we’re expecting more of in the coming months as majors scramble to add ounces…Grayd owns a 100% interest in the La India project located in the Mulatos Gold Belt of Sonora, Mexico (approximately 70 kilometres northwest of Agnico-Eagle’s Pinos Altos Gold mine)…the project hosts a NI-43-101 compliant measured and indicated Gold resource of 26.8 million tonnes at a grade of 0.88 g/t Au and an inferred resource of 19.7 million tonnes grading 0.80 g/t Au…mineralization is open in all directions at La India and AEM must believe there is considerably more Gold on the property…GYD has shot up 78 cents to $2.73 this morning and is the most active stock on the CDNXNiogold (NOX, TSX-V) and Aurizon Mines (ARZ, TSX) have discovered two new high grade zones at the Marban Block Property in the heart of the Malartic Gold camp, just down the Golden Highway from here in Rouyn-Noranda…Aurizon has an earn-in option on the property…906.2 g/t Au over 2.9 metres (MB-11-198) and 5.9 g/t Au over 15.7 metres (MB-11-195) were intersected at the new High Grade Western Zone at vertical depths of 175 and 125 metres, respectively…meanwhile, the second discovery, the Eastern Down Dip Zone (400 metres east of the former Marban mine shaft) includes intersections at depth of 7 g/t Au over 10.9 metres, 179.5 g/t Au over 1.2 metres and 6.1 g/t Au over 12.6 metres…a resource estimate for Marban Block will be completed by the end of the year based on drilling since last yearr…Niogold is currently up 2.5 pennies at 35.5 cents…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) is merging with Takara Resources (TKK, TSX-V)…the business combination may make sense strategically for the two companies but GoldQuest has been around for many years and some investors will no doubt be disappointed…GQC is up half a penny at 17 cents…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) continues to have an explosive chart and the stock’s pullback from a high of 43.5 cents last week has simply brought it back down to its rising 20-day moving average (SMA) which has to be considered a normal technical development in the context of an overall strong uptrend…VGD has been getting very encouraging early indications from its Wasa Creek and Wasa East properties, immediately adjacent to Wasamac, and drill results are still pending for 12 out of 13 holes drilled in Phase 1 at Wasa Creek…the company has already committed to a Phase 2 program at Wasa Creek during the fourth quarter which gives us reassurance that indeed they believe they are closing in on something potentially significant…VGD is unchanged at 38 cents…

New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) has released an updated NI-43-101 resource estimate for its Blackwater Project in central British Columbia…we believed this deposit (formerly Richfield’s) would eventually exceed 5 or 6 million ounces and indeed it has…the indicated Gold resource is 165 million tonnes at an average grade of 1.01 g/t containing 5.4 million ounces of Gold…the inferred Gold resource is 39 million tonnes at an average grade of 0.94 g/t containing 1.2 million ounces of Gold…the updated estimate incorporates drill results from both the 100%-owned southern portion of the project and the 75%-owned northern portion, where Silver Quest Resources Ltd. (SQI, TSX-V) owns the remaining 25%…Blackwater will get bigger yet…

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) has just announced  that its wholly owned subsidiary, Castle Silver Mines Inc., has filed a preliminary prospectus for an initial public offering of 4,750,000 flow-through units at a price of 40 cents per unit and a minimum of 3 million and a maximum of 5 million units at 30 cents for maximum gross proceeds to Castle Silver Mines of $3.4 million…Gold Bullion shareholders will receive one common share of Castle Silver Mines for approximately every 85 issued and outstanding Gold Bullion shares on the distribution record date (to be announced)…Gold Bullion will retain approximately 7.8 million shares of Castle Silver MinesGBB released assay results from 28 more holes at Granada last Wednesday…the results were solid as assays from half of the holes (14) showed intercepts of 100 metres or more grading between 0.31 g/t Au and 0.50 g/t Au…the northern part of the Eastern Extension continues to show excellent potential and tonnage is adding up in that area…so, overall, we continue to like how the LONG Bars Zone is coming together…however, the market is anxious for a NI-43-101 initial resource estimate and GBB made the mistake last March of stating, “The company remains very focused on generating a 43-101-compliant resource calculation by early summer”… we’re now approaching the end of summer and there is still no 43-101…companies are rewarded when they exceed the market’s expectations and are punished when they don’t fulfill them which is why GBB has been struggling of late…as of 12:15 pm Eastern, Gold Bullion is off 2.5 cents at 31 cents…

Drilling at the waste pile near Pit #2 at Granada

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V), unchanged at 57 cents, continues to look strong and a turnaround in its 50-day moving average (SMA) is possible this week…last week the company released solid initial results from Phase 2 drilling at its Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val-d’Or which included 7.1 g/t Au over 4.3 metres and 4.5 g/t Au over 9.3 metresAGE is working on a NI-43-101 resource estimate for Pascalis and our belief, based on results to date, is that the property likely holds significantly more ounces than what Cambior mined at the property (L.C. Beliveau Mine) between 1989 and 1993 (nearly 170,000 ounces)…Pascalis is a property we believe Richmont may have interest in potentially acquiring given that its Beaufor Mine is located adjacent to it and Richmont’s Camflo Mill has unused capacity…Richmont President and CEO Martin Rivard is obviously keeping an eye on developments at Pascalis given his response to one of Jon’s question’s last Friday…some readers have inquired about Alexandria Minerals (AZX, TSX-V) which has a nice package of properties along the Cadillac Trend in the Val-d’Or area…technically, the stock does have some challenges at the moment with declining 100, 200 and 300-day moving averages…the declining 1,000-day SMA at 13.5 cents has been providing support but a test of the 10-cent support area can’t be ruled out…that’s just a technical perspective…fundamentally, the company’s properties have good potential (they do have some advanced situations) but will likely require more time to generate market excitement…

13 Comments

  1. From Jon;

    ” Wathever append with the market, Visible Gold Mines with hold” exactly what we are seiing today!

    Thank Jon, ans BMR for Brinning that opportunity!!

    Martin

    Comment by Martin — September 19, 2011 @ 12:02 pm

  2. ” Wathever append with the market, Visible Gold Mines will hold” exactly what we are seiing today!

    Thank Jon, ans BMR for Brinning that opportunity!!

    This story is only begening!

    (could not be more well situated than now)

    GLTA

    Comment by Martin — September 19, 2011 @ 12:08 pm

  3. BER had a real adjustment today, closed at 24.5 cents, down 3 cents. The huge lot before opening (over 1 million shares) at 30 cents and then, adjusted to 26 cents when it was 23 cents… disappeared after that. The key player is not there today and big seller will not dump as there were not many buyers at that time. My sixth sense tells me it may still drop further before it rebounces back to the mid or high 20s. I am holding a portfolio of this stock. GBB had an announcement today but there is nothing exciting or attractive for GBB shareholders. My sixth sense of this stock is still in downward trend … my buy price of this stock is around 26 cents… current price is about 18 % from by buy low concept. At this moment, I do not hold any GBB as I sold all mine at 35.5 cents. SFF – I have scooped some in the early morning and the volume of today is low. My sixth sense of this stock will have very good upward potential… looking for about 25% swing…. and my sell high price is 28 cents +. NAR has no turnover – no surprise. VGD and VGN are both waiting for a better market condition to boost again… current price for VGD 38 cents level is close to my buy low principle….. VGN …. 14.5 cents may stay for a few days before heading to 17 cents.

    Comment by Theodore — September 19, 2011 @ 1:00 pm

  4. GBB remember me of mcwatters mining, in 2002, they where drilling below de the city of Val D’or

    Comment by Martin — September 19, 2011 @ 1:36 pm

  5. GBB down another 7.5% today! Was the announced Castle Silver IPO negative. It doesn’t seem to matter what GBB do – they are sold off on any news.

    I am starting to think there is some sort of skullduggery going on here! Or is there a reason for this?

    Comment by Rosco — September 19, 2011 @ 2:13 pm

  6. When will the second part of the interview with Martin Dallaire be posted?

    Great job you guys(BMR).

    Thanks.

    Comment by Mar — September 19, 2011 @ 2:24 pm

  7. Later this week….Thursday or Friday. Interview scheduled for Thursday. Thank you.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 19, 2011 @ 2:29 pm

  8. Jon are you going to be visiting/interviewing anyone at GBB?

    Comment by Pete — September 19, 2011 @ 3:21 pm

  9. It’s possible, Pete. Unfortunately GBB is in a state of flux at the moment until the 43-101 comes out. The welcome mat is out for Frank anytime at BMR.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 19, 2011 @ 3:25 pm

  10. I think

    Comment by Hugh — September 20, 2011 @ 12:27 am

  11. I think the news for GBB was not too bad, but at the same time it was expected and it didnt excite the market, underwhelming. Also what’s a make or break for GBB is the 43-101, if this is positive we are on winner otherwise if it disappoints, I will sell on the news. Also I think the news for GQC is very positive and will help this little company excel in this tough environment I think the synergy is a good thing. VGN is very disappointing however, this company made all kind of noises at the end of last year. Now they wont even reply to politley worded emails, I smell a rat here and and when this stock eventually pops on any news I am out as I am under water becasue I fell for Tony’s BS – I think the management dont give a damn about a shareholders to be honest.

    Comment by Hugh — September 20, 2011 @ 12:35 am

  12. I would agree, Hugh. With VGN, I’m very disappointed as well. I like Tony but he did make it clear to me and the investment public at large that he was getting aggressive with VGN and that 2011 would be a very active year. He abruptly changed course and that was very disappointing. Goes to show you can’t always believe what a CEO says.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 20, 2011 @ 3:16 am

  13. As always – appreciate your honesty. Maybe Tony will pull something out of the bag soon. We’ll see.

    Comment by Hugh — September 20, 2011 @ 7:05 am

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