TSX Venture Exchange and Gold
The Venture showed its resilience last week, holding strong support in the mid-to-upper 920’s despite pressure on Gold early in the week. Then on Thursday, the Index reversed sharply to the upside with its best day of the year as bullion took off. The Venture held steady Friday to finish the week up 22 points at 951. The support band from the August low of 907 to the 100-day moving average (SMA) at 928 is VERY strong, but so too is the resistance between 955 and 970. We’re about to find out how this battle between support and resistance is going to play out, and our guess – based on numerous technical and fundamental factors – is that the Venture will break to the upside.
Below is a 3-month daily chart from John. This is the CDNX’s 5th attempt since mid-August to push past 955, which will make any breakout that much more significant. With a 100-day SMA that appears ready to reverse to the upside after a long decline – another factor that can help drive momentum – the outlook for the Venture has to be considered more positive now than it has been for quite some time. Higher Gold prices would obviously be a critical factor in triggering a breakout, in addition to some impressive exploration results (an absolutely stellar hole from Sheslay, perhaps?). In addition, the TSX last week finally overcame important resistance around 12900 and closed above 13000 for the 1st time in more than 2 years.
The Seeds Have Been Planted (And Continue To Be Planted) For The Next Big Run In Gold Stocks
There’s no better cure for low prices than low prices. The great benefit of the collapse in Gold prices this year is that it forced producers (at least most of them) to start to become much more lean and mean in terms of their cost structures. Among many others, Barrick Gold (ABX, TSX), the world’s largest producer, said it may sell, close or curb output at 12 mines from Peru to Papua New Guinea where costs are higher. Producers, big and small, have started to make hard decisions in terms of costs, projects, and rationalizing their operating structures. Exploration budgets among both producers and juniors have also been cut sharply. In addition, government policies across much of the globe are making it more difficult (sometimes impossible) for mining companies to put Gold (or other) deposits into production, thanks to the ignorance of many politicians and the impact of radical and vocal environmentalists. Ultimately, all these factors are going to create a supply problem – think about it, where are the next major Gold deposits going to come from? On top of that, a recent Mineweb study showed that grades have indeed fallen significantly just over the past decade. For instance, grades in the South African Gold sector fell from an average of 4.3 grams per metric ton in 2002 to an average of 2.8 grams per metric ton in 2011. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the next huge bull market in Gold stocks is just around the corner due to demand-supply dynamics, much leaner producers who will suddenly become earnings machines, and a junior market that will be healthier simply because a lot of the “lifestyle” companies sucking money out of investors will simply disappear or get taken over by individuals or groups who are actually competent and serious about building shareholder value. A healthy “cleansing” in the market has been taking place. As this continues, more and more seeds are being planted for an incredible future move in well-managed Gold producers and explorers that could make the dotcom bubble look like a tea party. As for the juniors, focus on the small universe of companies that have the ability to execute both on the ground and in the market – companies that have the cash, the expertise, the properties and the drive to make discoveries that majors will buy.
Gold
Gold held critical support at $1,270 on a closing basis early in the week, rallied powerfully on Thursday following the deal in Washington to once again kick the debt can a little further down the road, and impressively held almost all of those gains on Friday to finish the week up $44 at $1,317. With more political shenanigans to come on Capitol Hill – perhaps a fight early in the New Year even more intense than the one we’ve just witnessed – the U.S. economy is going to continue to be restrained by an environment of fiscal and political uncertainty. What’s worse, the man at the top – a President who lacks entrepreneurial instincts and has never had to meet a payroll in his life – seems to have little idea how jobs are created (i.e., Keystone XL) and how easily they can be destroyed (i.e., Obamacare). His faith is rooted in government, not in the traditional American entrepreneurial spirit and the American Dream, and his focus is on trying to redistribute wealth, not create it. The U.S. economy is being strangled by over-regulation and an obvious lack of visionary economic leadership from the White House. What all of this means is the likelihood of continued weak employment growth and a less than stellar overall economic performance by the U.S., which is turn means QE to infinity – or at least until political and fiscal sanity return to Washington. The growing consensus is that the Federal Reserve will not begin “tapering” until well into 2014 (at the earliest). So much for the pundits’ prediction of a scaling back of QE by September. The political dynamics and poor fiscal policies will force the Fed to keep its pedal to the metal. With U.S. debt levels increasing along with the Fed’s balance sheet, Gold appears to be in a very good position to move higher. The greenback, which had momentum in its favor earlier this year, is now clearly in a downtrend.
A wave of buy orders worth in excess of $2 billion surged into the Gold market overnight Thursday, shortly after Congress ended its impasse. One of the catalysts for this was a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Chinese rating agency Dagong, though they don’t have much of a following outside of China. But China of course is the world’s 2nd-largest economy and the world’s #1 Gold consumer. Dagong trimmed the U.S. credit rating by 1 notch to A-minus from A, saying the agreement in Washington does not defuse worries about the U.S. deficit or improve the country’s ability to repay over the long-term. More U.S. federal debt has accumulated under President Obama over the last 5 years than under all other U.S. Presidents combined.
Technically, the next 2 key levels Gold must deal with are $1,320 and $1,366 (followed by $1,400). Closing prices above $1,320 and $1,366 will generate significant new momentum. Below is a 3-month daily chart from John. The outlook is positive.
Russia’s first Gold-backed ETF, the “FinEx Physically Held Gold ETF Fund”, has been launched by FinEx Group and the Moscow Exchange. The new ETF is listed on the Moscow Exchange and cross-listed on the Irish Stock Exchange. The new ETF is following a similar product launched in Shanghai, while seeking to benefit from Russia’s increasing Gold jewelry demand which rose 7.6% in 2012.
Silver gained 62 cents last week to close at $21.96, Copper edged up a penny to $3.27, thanks in part to an encouraging 3rd quarter GDP number (7.8%) from China. Crude Oil fell by over $1 a barrel to $100.81 while the U.S. Dollar Index got hammered again, falling three-quarters of a point to 79.61.
The “Big Picture” View Of Gold
As Frank Holmes so effectively illustrates at www.usfunds.com, the long-term bull market in Gold has been driven by both the Fear Trade and the Love Trade. The transfer of wealth from west to east, and the accumulation of wealth particularly in China and India, has had a huge impact on bullion. Despite this year’s drop, the fundamental long-term case for Gold remains incredibly strong – currency instability and an overall lack of confidence in fiat currencies, governments and world leaders in general, an environment of historically low interest rates, a Fed balance sheet now in excess of $3.5 trillion and expanding at $85 billion a month, money supply growth around the globe, massive government debt from the United States to Europe, central bank buying, flat mine supply, physical demand (especially from China), emerging market growth, geopolitical unrest and conflicts…the list goes on. However, deflationary concerns around the globe and the prospect of Fed tapering by the end of the year (not likely now) had a lot to do with Gold’s plunge during the spring below the technically and psychologically important $1,500 level, along with the strong performance of equities which drew money away from bullion. June’s low of $1,179 may have been the bottom for bullion – time will tell. We do, however, expect new all-time highs as the decade progresses. There are many reasons to believe that Gold’s long-term bull market is still intact despite this major correction from the 2011 all-time high of just above $1,900 an ounce.
Jon – Exploration budgets among both producers and juniors have also been cut sharply. In addition, government policies across much of the globe are making it more difficult (sometimes impossible) for mining companies to put Gold (or other) deposits into production, thanks to the ignorance of many politicians and the impact of radical and vocal environmentalists. Ultimately, all these factors are going to create a supply problem – think about it, where are the next major Gold deposits going to come from?
Bert – I agree with the above paragraph completely, but i don’t know how it can be a
positive for the future. The problems you have outlined will not go away, we will always
have ignorant politicians & the radical & vocal environmentalists will become more radical
and more vocal, as each day passes. Although the antis’ may create a supply problem, the
Politicians will always be swayed by the radicals amongst us, they don’t seem to care about
those of us, who lay back and say nothing. The radicals have impressed their children with
their power of protesting & the children are growing older by the day. If anyone out there
disagree with my way of thinking, i suggest you take a look at what is going on in New
Brunswick, where a stand is being taken against fracking. My advice may be worthless, but
i will give it anyway, it’s very simple, when it comes to your money , don’t listen to anyone,
especially if & when you realize a profit, grab it & run. What one must realize is that profits
may be there today, tomorrow, but not forever. While we stare & stare, company directors, warrant
& option holders, who are in the know, more than likely, will be preparing to grab what we should
have grabbed, sorry Guys & Gals you were late again. (What is this life, if full of care, we have
no time to stand & stare, no time to stare beneath the boughs & stare as long as sheep & cows)—
Sorry to be so negative today, but every board needs an alarm person, otherwise you may get caught
up in the system, which is stacked against us. I appreciate BMR & i appreciate being able to express
my views, but in order to make this board a real board, i would love to see BMR., every once in
awhile, use the SELL word. My argument being, they use chart readings to decide when to BUY, why not
use the same charts to tell it’s readers, when they should consider selling. R !
Comment by Bert — October 20, 2013 @ 7:55 am
Bert, appreciate your insights as always and you bring up some good points. But I don’t think that now is a time to be negative concerning the markets – it’s a time to be very excited, actually, because the GOOD companies, the ones that are in the top 10% of the juniors, within this group there are some incredible opportunities and stocks that I’m certain will increase 10-fold and more over the course of the next year. If one is highly selective and picks a small basket of the right deals at the moment, and shows some patience, a year from now that basket will yield fruit like you can’t even begin to imagine. What we’ve seen in recent months is the opposite to what we saw in late 2010 and early 2011. It was a great time to be a seller at that point, just like it is a great time to be a buyer (of the right deals) now. As we’ve stated repeatedly, focus on the companies with the working capital, the expertise at the management and geological levels, the share structure, the right properties, and the drive/ambition to create shareholder value. A lot of companies have none of these characteristics at the moment; others have a couple; some have a few; a small percentage have all of the above and those will be the big winners coming out of this bear market. Avoid lifestyle companies like the plague.
There is one reason why people buy a stock (they believe it’s going higher, immediately or longer-term) and there are many reasons why people sell a stock. In our charts, John always shows where there are key resistance areas (short-term and longer-term) and where a stock may react. On the flip side, he also shows where the key support areas are. It’s up to each individual to make his or her choice as to what to do when it comes to buying or selling a stock. Our intent is not to tell people when to buy or when to sell, just to point out opportunities, and also risks when they do appear. And of course a key part of what we try to do is analyze the trends in Gold, Silver, other commodities, currencies, the Venture, major indices, and economies in general, so it’s just not about stocks here. It’s about the markets in general. And sometimes we step into political discussions because markets depend so much on government policies. Our aim is to be a good source for due diligence – and investors should obviously factor in a variety of sources and tools. We strongly believe that fundamental analysis and technical analysis have to be used together.
Comment by Jon - BMR — October 20, 2013 @ 8:41 am
I understand Jon, but just for something to write, i will bring forward
some of the power words used in your most recent musings:
Incredible opportunity
Possibilities are enormous
Potential breakout
Rocket launching boost
Glory hole
You can accumulate now, or pay more later (or something like that)
Jon & John holds shares
I must not forget that one of your paragraphs caused a follower to get goose
bumps.
The word BUY may not have been there, but was close by.
You know i am only tormenting. Have a good day & pray for us sinners, who
participate in this game of chance.. I am sure the D—- is also involved,
have anyone ever noticed, when they bought, they could have gotten it cheaper
15 minute4s later, or when they sold, they could have gotten more for each
share, 15 minutes later. R !
Comment by Bert — October 20, 2013 @ 12:24 pm
I am curious about your strong stance against Obama, specifically Obamacare Jon.I have not read the bill, but my understanding is that it is designed for the many folks below the “middle class” who can not afford healthcare. I read somewhere that the folks down there against Obamacare are typically the folks that can already afford their own health plan. No offense, but isn’t it a bit hypocritical for those of us here in Canada who have a pretty good health system, even with its warts and inefficiencies, to be taking potshots at someone who is trying to make things better for people who are poor?Just my two cents worth!
Comment by TJ (my nickname) — October 20, 2013 @ 1:52 pm
TJ, “Obamacare” will go down as this President’s worst legislative mistake. First off, the timing was poor – so soon after the Crash when his administration’s focus should have remained squarely on the economy and the importance of private sector job creation. Secondly, it would take you the rest of your life to actually read the legislation – it’s that lengthy, and has created a regulatory nightmare. The last thing you want to do, especially when an economy is coming out of a deep recession, is make it more expensive for businesses to hire people. That’s what Obamacare has done. In many instances, businesses have cut back on full-time employees and turned them into part-time, or gotten rid of them altogether, simply to avoid higher associated health care costs. Regulatory confusion and uncertainty does not entice businesses to invest in people, equipment, etc. Obamacare has also created deep political divisions in the country. This was a President who said he would bring the nation together. Clinton avoided this very thing for good reasons. Obama chose to go down that road and made a mistake. And now healthcare.gov is rolling out in a very messy way. For some Americans, insurance costs are even going up. There’s no doubt the American health care system can use some improvements in many ways, just like the Canadian system. But what has been initiated down south has hurt employment, restrained economic growth and has also contributed to a poisonous political atmosphere. The best social policy a government can come up with is one that encourages widespread private sector job creation. As a result of the fiscal and political mess the U.S. is in, perpetuated by Obama, the Fed has to keep running the printing press and that’s going to have serious consequences as well. I’ve always compared Obama with the late former Canadian Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau – both very similar in their approaches and policies. Socialists at heart. Canadians to this day are still paying the price for Trudeau’s inept economic policies in the name of “social justice”.
Comment by Jon - BMR — October 20, 2013 @ 3:43 pm
TJ ,off and on I have read a fair bit of the bill .I suggest you read itShould’t take you more than a month.Its only approx. 2000 pages.Anyone with common sense should come to the conclusion that it is a disaster to the US and taxpayers.
Comment by Greg J. — October 20, 2013 @ 5:23 pm
Jon – That’s what Obamacare has done. In many instances, businesses have cut
back on full-time employees and turned them into part-time, or gotten rid
of them altogether, simply to avoid higher associated health care costs.
Bert- I decided after sending my last post to give you a break, as i felt i may
not be treating my cyber friend fairly. It’s too bad i decided to check
the board before retiring for the night, as a result, here i am, at it
again. Pray tell me if our Medical Care Plan is the reason business people
in Canada are doing the same thing. They have been turning full time employees
into part-time for years. Business folks in the U.S. finally have an excuse
to do the same thing. Those, who will benefit from Obamacare most, are the poor,
who could never afford health insurance, poor souls ! Who do you think is behind
all the negativity ? probably the same money pockets, who are in the market, with
their machines, grabbing every last cent from the lowly folk. By the way, Saint
Bank, J. C. Morgan, is a good example, what the rich will do to show a profit,
They with their large bonuses, got what they deserved. This world is corrupt,
starting in many cases, with the richest amongst us. Need i state more ? Forgive
me, but i must always respond to things printed, which i disagree with.. 11 p.m.
Nfld time, Gold is up $1.70…Good night ! R !
Comment by Bert — October 20, 2013 @ 5:46 pm