TSX Venture Exchange and Gold
March started miserably for the Venture, with 10 losing sessions out of 12, but may end on a very encouraging note.
The Venture continued to strengthen last week and added 10 points to finish at 681, a key potential breakout area defined by Fib. resistance and the 50-day moving average (SMA). Trading Monday and Tuesday to close out the month will be critical as a confirmed breakout would suggest a surprisingly strong move to the upside could be in the works for April.
It’s no coincidence that the Venture turnaround started Wednesday, March 18, when the Fed emerged from its 2-day policy meeting with a statement that was dovish enough to take the wind out of the sails of the greenback. It appears the Dollar Index hit a temporary top this month of just under 101 after its fastest rise, since last summer, in 40 years. This has given commodities and the Venture some much-needed relief. Additional dollar weakness next month would create the conditions for a Venture breakout through important chart resistance around 707.
If some companies can also show some success on the exploration front – there’s nothing like a blockbuster drill hole to get investors excited, that’s what this market needs – then the Venture has a chance to snap out of a 7-month slump in a powerful way.
Significantly, Venture support in the 650’s (Fib. level) held during a rocky first half of the month as it did during January. John’s 4-month daily chart shows RSI(14) with strong up momentum as the Index attempts to gain traction above the indicated SMA-20.
The Seeds Have Been Planted (And Continue To Be Planted) For The Next Big Run In Gold Stocks
There’s no better cure for low prices than low prices. The great benefit of the collapse in Gold prices in 2013 is that it forced producers (at least most of them) to start to become much more lean in terms of their cost structures. Producers, big and small, have started to make hard decisions in terms of costs, projects, and rationalizing their their overall operations. Exploration budgets among both producers and juniors have also been cut sharply. In addition, government policies across much of the globe are making it more difficult (sometimes impossible) for mining companies to carry out exploration or put Gold (or other) deposits into production, thanks to the ignorance of many politicians and the impact of radical and vocal environmentalists (technology has made it easier for groups opposing mining projects to organize and disseminate information, even in remote areas around the globe). Ultimately, all of these factors are going to eventually create a supply problem and therefore great opportunities in Gold and quality Gold stocks. Think about it, where are the next major Gold deposits going to come from? On top of that, grades have fallen significantly just over the past decade.
Gold
Gold popped as high as $1,220 this past week as the greenback cooled off and tensions flared up in the Middle East. Friday’s minor pullback was bullion’s first losing session out of 8. For the week, it was up $16 to close at $1,198.
This 6-month daily chart shows how Gold’s RSI(14) broke above a downtrend line immediately following the Fed announcement March 18. Bullion has climbed 5% since its low of $1,142 which is exactly where it rallied from sharply a few months ago.
Bullion’s immediate challenge is to overcome the psychologically important $1,200 level. Following that, there’s a cluster of Fib. resistance between $1,217 and $1,264.
Gold 2.5-Year Weekly Chart
This longer-term weekly chart gives a helpful broader perspective of Gold’s “ups” and “downs” over the last 2-and-a-half years. What’s particularly encouraging at the moment is the bullish crossover in the SS – strong rallies have typically emerged from this pattern going back to the spring of 2013.
Note how the RSI(14) on this 2.5-year chart has moved within a 30% to 60% channel for the past year (currently at 46%), and how the Gold price has been bouncing around within a downsloping flag. Eventually, there will either be a breakout above the flag or a breakdown below it. How soon is anyone’s guess, but that’s what we need to be watching for.
After a 7% surge the previous week, Silver added another 24 cents to close at $16.97 (updated charts Monday morning). Copper strengthened again as well, adding 2 cents to finish at $2.76. Crude Oil gained more than $2 a barrel to $48.87 while the U.S. Dollar Index fell half a point to 97.38.
The “Big Picture” View Of Gold
As Frank Holmes so effectively illustrates at www.usfunds.com, the long-term bull market in Gold has been driven by both the Fear Trade and the Love Trade. The transfer of wealth from west to east, and the accumulation of wealth particularly in China and India, has had a huge impact on bullion and will continue to support prices. Despite Gold’s largest annual drop in three decades in 2013, the fundamental long-term case for the metal remains solidly intact based on the following factors:
- Growing geopolitical tensions, fueled in part by the ISIS and al Qaeda, and a highly dangerous and expansionist Russia under Vladimir Putin, have put world security in the most precarious state since World War II;
- Weak leadership in the United States and Europe is emboldening enemies of the West;
- Currency instability and an overall lack of confidence in fiat currencies, except King Dollar at the moment;
- Historically low interest rates;
- Continued strong accumulation of Gold by China which intends to back up its currency with bullion;
- Massive government debt from the United States to Europe – a “day of reckoning” will come;
- Continued net buying of Gold by central banks around the world;
- The Oil price plunge since last year which may cause destabilization of certain Oil-dependent economies;
- Mine closings, a sharp reduction in exploration and a lack of major new discoveries – these factors should contribute to a noticeable tightening of supply over the next couple of years.
GREAT UPDATE GUYS!
Comment by STEVEN1 — March 28, 2015 @ 3:13 pm