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May 8, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 2 Of 3

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion fell in sympathy with the overall market last week, falling 7 cents to close at 39 cents…the stock fell as low as 37.5 cents during Thursday’s CDNX 78-point sell-off, just three pennies above the March low for GBB where there is outstanding support…the first sign of a sustained recovery in the stock will come when the still-declining 50-day moving average (SMA), which is currently providing resistance in the mid-to-upper 40’s, reverses to the upside…GBB expects to close a private placement financing in the very near future which could add as much as $5 million to the company’s treasury…most of the financing is at 61 cents on a flow-through basis which is a departure from previous financings which have all been hard cash…nonetheless, the money is needed as GBB pushes to advance the Granada Gold Property…for the past two months Gold Bullion has traded between its 300-day and 500-day moving averages, a pattern that seems likely to continue for the immediate future until an event or news produces the most likely scenario which we believe is an upside breakout…investor patience is critical here as this opportunity is as big as ever despite the share price slump which started in mid-February…GENIVAR is expected to complete an initial 43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone sometime during the third quarter and that should spark significant new interest in GBB…given the obvious multi-million ounce potential of the LONG Bars Zone, the company’s current market cap of $62 million seems absurdly cheap…more drill results were released April 5…there were no eye-popping numbers but that’s okay – virtually every hole continues to hit near-surface mineralization and tonnage keeps building…hole #179 (72.25 metres grading 1.25 g/t Au and 156 metres of 0.61 g/t Au) shows mineralization continues to push eastward from Pit #1…six holes drilled just NE and SE of #179 under the waste pile will be important to look for (holes #198, #199, #201, #248, #250, and #253 – assays to come)…hole #97 was a nice cut likely of Vein #2, 46.7 metres grading 1.51 g/t Au…holes like #69, #124, #136 and #193 don’t get most investors excited but they’re very important to the overall picture with long intersections of lower grade (177, 113, 189 and 165 metres respectively grading between 0.31 and 0.42 g/t Au)…Frank Basa will have no problem with those numbers, keeping in mind the “upgrading” effect at Granada…structure is there…more bulk sampling and different types of drilling will quantify and improve the grade…just a few holes reported from the southwest corner of the Block Model with many more to come from there – it continues to be a promising area…there were a smattering of holes from the Eastern Extension but nothing that jumped out at us…many more results are yet to come from the Eastern Extension including the northern part where good visuals were reported earlier…it’s interesting to note that on GBB’s drill map, three step-out holes have been drilled about 90 to 145 metres north of holes #55 and #108…we’ll be watching closely for results from those holes…assay results are now in on nearly half of the 228 holes completed so far (45,000 metres) in Phases 2 and 3…47,730 metres in total have been completed since December, 2009…the case for the LONG Bars Zone remains intact…much, much more drilling lies ahead as this is all about volume (which is why we wanted to see more than two rigs by 2011)…the 43-101 this summer will be extremely helpful in terms of pushing this exciting project forward…Gold Bullion is sitting on a potentially huge near-surface Gold deposit in one of the best jurisdictions in the world for mining and exploration during the greatest bull market in history for the yellow metal…on April 11, Gold Bullion announced its intention to spin off its Castle Silver Mine Property into a separate publicly traded company…such a move makes good strategic sense and Gold Bullion is hoping the proposed transaction will be completed before the third quarter of this year…that could be optimistic as this type of move typically runs into unexpected delays but the important point is that GBB is going in the right direction with this important asset…Castle is a significant former producer with a lot of unexplored potential for cobalt and silver, in particular, in addition to nickel and copper…GBB has gained 457% since we introduced it to BMR readers 16 months ago and much more excitement in our view is yet to come from the LONG Bars Zone…

Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V)

There is no way to sugar coat this one – Cadillac has been an under-performer and a major disappointment given the opportunity this company had (and still has) with Richmont’s discovery of much more Gold at the Wasamac deposit where Cadillac holds seven very strategic and valuable claims…it’s possible the company could be holding out for a great deal on these claims and we hope that’s the case as that’s the only justification management has for not pushing forward aggressively by now on exploration there…by so far not seizing the incredible opportunity at Wasamac (including doing a much-needed financing at significantly higher prices), Cadillac is also seriously undermining investors’ confidence that it has the ability to make a success out of the Utah Gold-Silver project it put together in January and that’s very unfortunate…so they are in effect potentially jeopardizing two excellent projects…the stock’s 100-day SMA is now in decline…the rising 500-day moving average (SMA) at 9 cents represents the next major support area…on April 29 the company updated drilling progress by partner Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) on the Cadillac Break Project that was optioned to VGD last December…two holes have been completed on the Kanasuta claims within 800 metres of Vantex Resources‘ (VAX, TSX-V) Moriss Zone discovery at its Galloway Project in Dassarat township, approximately 30 kilometres west of Rouyn-Noranda…Visible Gold is expected to drill two more holes before moving that rig eastward to ground within 2,800 metres of Richmont Mines’ (RIC, TSX) growing Wasamac deposit…no mention was made in the Cadillac news release of its seven 100% owned claims that are tied on to Wasamac…at the end of February the company announced it was “getting ready” for an exploration program at its Wasa claims and that it expected to announce details of its exploration program in the “near future”…in our view, Cadillac would be far better off optioning those claims as well to Visible Gold which is in a much better position in every way to aggressively tackle the great potential of that property…Wasamac helped propel Richmont’s share price to an all-time high of nearly $10… Cadillac’s current market cap of only $3.4 million allows for plenty of upside if management can deliver…

Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V)

It was a tough week for Abcourt which fell through support and lost 3.5 cents to close at 13 cents…the stock, which now has 149 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $19.5 million, traded as low as 11 cents Friday morning where it appeared to hit an important bottom given heavily oversold technical conditions and support at the December low…a declining 50-day moving average (SMA) has been putting some pressure on the stock which still has rising 100, 200 and 300-day SMA’s at 17.5, 15.5 and 14 cents, respectively…after announcing the closing of a $6.32 million financing April 21, ABI released more drill results April 26 from its Abcourt-Barvue Silver-Zinc Property near Val d’Or…the results from five additional holes suggest growing open pit reserves and resources…two zones continue to produce significant grades including 9.1 metres of 171.73 g/t Ag and 3.48% Zn in hole #20 (zone 1) and 7.3 metres grading 196.32 g/t Ag and 3.73% Zn in hole #19 (zone 1)…the 10,000 metre drill program continues…the last set of results from the company’s Elder-Tagami Gold Property near Rouyn-Noranda came out March 3…mineralization continues to expand to the west of the former underground Elder Mine…the Tagami area to the north, meanwhile, has untapped potential including some higher grades…the latest NI-43-101 resource estimate of 216,000 ounces was released in the summer of 2009…the possibility of Abcourt expanding that resource beyond 500,000 ounces certainly exists given the encouraging results to date (look what Richmont has done at Wasamac)…the heavy accumulation that began in Abcourt in December was no fluke in our view…this is a company with significant assets that could justify a substantially higher valuation…nearly 60 million shares of ABI changed hands on the CDNX in December and January – record volume for this stock, accompanied by a price jump from 14.5 cents…we’ve seen these type of volume surges before and they are always a very positive sign…Abcourt is being accumulated, and our best guess is that some savvy players like the assets in the ground…continued drilling success and even higher prices for Gold, Silver and zinc would be exciting developments for this stock which has a history of major moves…from mid-2005 to early 2006, Abcourt rocketed from 15 cents to nearly $1.40…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V)

We view Currie Rose as one of our best near-term opportunities given its bullish chart patterns and the pending start of a major drill program at its properties in Tanzania…the stock was off 2 pennies for the week at 16 cents but staged a nice recovery during Thursday’s market sell-off when it dropped as low as 14 cents and then quickly recovered to 16 cents as buyers stepped aggressively into the market…the 50-day moving average (SMA) has flattened out and what we’re looking for is a reversal to the upside in the very near future which would be another bullish development in addition to the just completed “cup with handle” formation…we are particularly excited about Currie Rose’s Sekenke Project in northwest Tanzania which we regard as the company’s #1 play as it holds major blue sky potential…Sekenke covers a lot of promising ground and runs in between and surrounds two former high grade Gold mines including Tanzania’s original producer…as often is the case, chances are that much was overlooked at and around the former mines which were in operation during the first half of the 20th century…Sekenke will likely be the first target of CUI’s upcoming drill program…while its Tanzanian properties are the market’s major focus, Currie Rose could also benefit over the coming weeks and months from continued good exploration news from Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V) which is currently conducting an 8,000 metre drill program at the Scadding Gold Property near Sudbury…Trueclaim, which continues to release encouraging assay results, has earned a 51% interest in Scadding and can acquire a full 100% interest by completing a feasibility study, paying $2 million to Currie Rose, and giving Currie Rose a 3% net smelter royalty…CUI announced a joint-venture deal January 25 with Australian-based Liontown Resources for Currie’s Jubilee Reef Gold Project in Tanzania…CUI’s focus is on the Sekenke and Mabale Hills Projects, so finding a partner for Jubilee Reef made sense…the deal commits Liontown to at least 5,000 metres of drilling at the property this year which will give Currie Rose a minimum of 23,000 metres of drilling at all of its properties in 2011…while Currie Rose has had its market cap shaved considerably, from a high of nearly $40 million to the current $14 million, what hasn’t changed is the quality of this company’s project portfolio which remains as high as it ever was in our view…Currie Rose has all the cash it needs ($2 million) to complete an initial major round of drilling (10,000 metres) this spring and summer in Tanzania, so there will not be any dilution of the stock at current levels as confirmed by President and CEO Harold Smith…

Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V)

Richfield, moving of course in step with New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX) was off $1.09 last week to close at $8.60…the rising 50-day moving average (SMA), currently at $8.00, has provided  consistent support throughout RVC’s incredible bull run since last summer…last Tuesday, Richfield announced more positive drill results from its Blackwater Project in central British Columbia including 91 metres grading 2.04 g/t Au over the southern section…of course at the beginning of April, Richfield announced a plan of arrangement with New Gold for a takeover of Richfield (in NGD stock) valued at that point at $10.38 per RVC share or $550 million…the drop in New Gold’s share price has partly been due to a knee-jerk reaction to some potential share dilution without investors properly considering the enormous possible benefits down the road to this company if it were to add Blackwater as a producer…we’ve been speculating on a potential buyout of Richfield for some time now…the proposed deal is certainly a very positive fit for New Gold whose New Afton Project in the interior of British Columbia, not far from Blackwater, is on target to start production by the middle of next year…New Gold sees some obvious synergies between the two deposits…Richfield recently outlined approximately 4 million ounces of Gold in the indicated and inferred categories at Blackwater in a NI-43-101 resource estimate released March 2…will another company step into the picture and start a takeover battle for Richfield?…the possibility of that can’t be ruled out, especially with Gold as strong as it is and the likelihood in the minds of some that the current resource at Blackwater could be expanded significantly…we’re now living in a world where there is a fierce battle for resources of all types…Richfield is up 617% since we introduced it to BMR readers in December, 2009, at $1.20…the Blackwater Gold District is still full of opportunity for investors and we encourage readers to check out the web site, www.BlackwaterGoldDistrict.com…we also see great value in New Gold which has been exceeding analysts’ expectations with terrific numbers…New Gold released its Q1 results last Wednesday, showing first quarter earnings per share of 6 cents and its lowest cash costs ever…

7 Comments

  1. Have you guys tried to reach CQX management and find out what the plans are going forward from here? I emailed Bernie the PR guy, I have no idea why they hired that guy he knows nothing and since CQX has nothing going on what a waste of money hiring a PR firm or person. I feel if management would at least give us some type of communication to what the plans are with thier properties since the feb announcement we would not have dropped so far, I realize all juniors are down, but if investors are getting regular updates or some type of communication we may not have gone down as much. Very frustrating, it’s like they could care less. They seem to be so concerned about there share structure and dilution so they do nothing. I really hope I am eating my words soon, but it does not look very promising from here, long ways back to 32 cents.

    BTW Hope all of you Mothers out there are having a great day, making my wife her favorite meal this evening Prime Rib.

    Comment by GREG H — May 8, 2011 @ 3:13 pm

  2. Greg, I went to the AGM in mid-February – I flew specifically to Vancouver for that – and I came away from that meeting very encouraged about the company’s plans and direction. I also met Bernie and I must say he’s a solid guy who knows his stuff. I like Vic and Andre a lot. I give them credit for putting together a great package in Utah. They are hard working, honest individuals who know their geology exceptionally well. They are also very careful with the company’s treasury – when they spend, they spend wisely. I wish more companies were like that. However, the knock against this group (not including Bernie) is that they don’t understand the market very well. What I see that has occurred over the last several months is an incredible wasted opportunity (dithering and indecision) with regard to Wasamac. No exploration, no money raised, no excitement when there should be, given Richmont’s success. There is still hope here, however, and a road map to success. But the clock is ticking. In this business, there are times when you absolutely must “seize the moment”. If you don’t, you’re screwed. Cadillac has failed miserably to date to seize the moment. All shareholders have been let down. We drew such attention to CQX’s opportunity at Wasamac (and Utah) and the company has simply not capitalized on that. Incredible. Richmont has been one of the top performing gold stocks on the TSX this year and has hugely outperformed the market because of Wasamac. And what has Cadillac done? Down nearly 70% for the year. Inexcusable.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 8, 2011 @ 5:08 pm

  3. Jon
    exactly, INEXCUSABLE!

    Comment by GREG H — May 8, 2011 @ 7:53 pm

  4. Hi Jon BMR
    First of all I will say that I realy appreciate this site and what you guys are doing here, I am a regular visitor.
    I read GREG:s input above here and I agree totaly with him and have the same question: Have you guys tried to reach CQX management and find out what the plans are for the nearest future from here? I think its time for them to inform the shareholders and give us back some hope.

    Comment by Bosse — May 9, 2011 @ 6:21 am

  5. I have spoken with both Vic and Andre – as I wrote last night, there seems to be indecision on their part on how to proceed with Wasamac. There is certainly hope given the asset – check out what Richmont announced with Globex this morning – but at some point you need to be bold and decisive and take the right steps to build shareholder value. I encourage readers who are shareholders in CQX to contact management. Vic’s number is (604) 684-7300. This is not a private company. It’s a publicly traded company and management has a responsibility to act in the best interests of shareholders. I am personally very frustrated with this situation.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 9, 2011 @ 6:49 am

  6. “There are irons in the fire, and they’re interesting ones”. Jon, which irons does he referring to? There has not been any good news from the company since january. I am really confused and disappointed in CQX. I really thought this one would be a winner in 2011 when you guys introduced it at BMR. Now I am considering even to sell my shares with 68% loss 🙁

    Comment by Peyman — May 9, 2011 @ 7:15 am

  7. The potential is still there for CQX to be a huge winner – the share structure and the properties. Unfortunately, to date, the company has not delivered with regard to Wasamac but that doesn’t mean they won’t deliver. One rule of thumb with these speculative stocks which we’ve stated repeatedly……never allow yourself to get into a position where you’re down 68% on a play. It’s important to cut your losses short. It’s better to take a 10% or 20% loss and move on to something else IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 9, 2011 @ 8:03 am

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