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May 8, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 3 of 3

Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) suffered with the market as a whole last week but found support at 30 cents and closed Friday at 33 cents for a loss of just two pennies for the week…the stock became extremely oversold based on RSI levels….the rising 500-day moving average (SMA) at 27 cents also provides excellent support, so it’s possible an important bottom may have been put in last week…interestingly, the CMF indicator shows a consistent increase in buying pressure in VGD since February…there has been some accumulation which doesn’t surprise us…BMR was the first to discover Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V), which led to massive profits for some of our readers, and we’re confident history could repeat itself with Visible Gold Mines as we are on this story before anyone else through careful research and due diligence…this is an aggressive company with $8 million in its treasury, strong management and one of the best geologists in the country in Robert Sansfacon who was instrumental in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic Deposit…VGD is quickly emerging as an exploration leader in northwest Quebec, specifically in the Rouyn-Noranda region…its flagship property is Joutel, a significant former Gold-Silver producer that gave birth to Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM, TSX) in the 1970′s…VGD just recently optioned Joutel from Agnico-Eagle and exploration will be starting soon…at the moment Visible Gold Mines has two drill programs in progress with one rig at the Silidor Gold Property, also a former producer, and another rig at its Kanasuta claims very close to Vantex Resources‘ (VAX, TSX-V) Moriss Zone discovery at its Galloway Project…following completion of four holes at Kanasuta, the drill rig is expected to move east to the area near Richmont Mines‘ (RIC, TSX) growing Wasamac deposit…it’s our belief VGD could have its sights set on acquiring a bigger and more strategic land package around Wasamac…it tried but was not able to work out an option agreement with Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V) in December regarding  seven claims that are tied on to the Wasamac deposit…Cadillac may have been holding out for a better deal…we’ll see what happens on that front but VGD is clearly in a better position than Cadillac to explore that highly prospective and strategic ground…initial drill results from VGD’s Silidor Property were released April 20…each of the first 10 holes at Silidor intersected mineralization and Hole #8 is of particular interest as four sections of Gold were hit between depths of 70.85 metres and 130.5 metres including 2.70 metres grading 5.45 g/t Au and 1.5 metres grading 5.70 g/t Au…this area has never been drilled before and it’s 700 metres southwest of the former Silidor mine…a total of 23 holes have now been completed (assays pending for 13 of them) and drilling continues in a northeasterly direction toward the former mine…things could get extremely interesting in a real hurry at Silidor with geologists of the opinion they could be closing in on a series of ore shoots…Silidor is just one of four major projects Visible Gold Mines is currently advancing…besides Joutel and Cadillac Break, VGD holds the Stadacona-East Property at Rouyn-Noranda which has an inferred resource of 164,000 ounces with potential for significant expansion with additional drilling…the President and CEO of Visible Gold Mines is Martin Dallaire, a very successful entrepreneur in Rouyn-Noranda with an engineering degree who understands the mining industry and what an exploration company needs to do to succeed and build shareholder value…Dallaire is fluently bilingual, presents himself extremely well and knows how to run a business and make money…he thinks big but is focused…he has also recruited some key people including Sansfacon, a highly respected geologist who honed his skills for many years with Lac Minerals…in short, Dallaire has put something together you don’t often see in the junior speculative market – a powerful dynamic of business, geological and marketing expertise with a strategic plan to rapidly build value…the company’s niche and sole geological focus is northwestern Quebec where it has acquired several promising land packages, mostly west and north of Rouyn-Noranda…Dallaire is taking an aggressive approach to exploration and he’s targeting under-explored areas and past producing mines where major new extensions are possible…

GoldQuest Mining (GQX, TSX-V)

GoldQuest appears to have finally bottomed out last week with its lowest close being 20 cents on Wednesday, an area of exceptional support as we had mentioned earlier…the stock was unchanged for the week, closing Friday at 23 cents…technically, the downside risk from current levels is limited given the successful test of support at 20 cents which is where the rising 500-day SMA sits…the stock became extremely oversold last week based on a range of indicators…the 200-day SMA at 29 cents continues to rise and that’s where resistance can be expected for now on the upside…the substantial drop in the share price from a high of 48.5 cents in early February was due to general market weakness and selling from speculators whose expectations may have been too high regarding initial drill results from the company’s La Escandalosa Project in the Dominican Republic…the results were good and support the resource model but were far from spectacular…17 holes are in from Escandalosa with seven more pending…results confirm that mineralization remains open to the north toward Hondo Valle, a distance of 1200 metres…best assays included 36.5 metres grading 2.74 g/t Au in hole #62, 16 metres grading 2.45 g/t Au in hole #47, and 9.2 metres grading 3.54 g/t Au in hole #48…the fact that any potential southern extension of La Escandalosa may have been displaced by faulting, as reported, is not a big surprise or a major concern as the ground going north has always been considered more prospective and provides GoldQuest with all the opportunity it needs to achieve its goal of a 1 million+ ounce deposit…another round of drilling at Escandalosa is scheduled for the second half of this year…in the meantime the company has other highly prospective targets in the DR to explore including Las Animas and Jengibre…GoldQuest’s potential has not diminished whatsoever yet the share price has dropped in half from its early February high…the company released a 43-101 resource estimate March 2 on its Toral zinc-lead-Silver deposit in Spain…it showed slightly lower grades but much higher overall tonnage than the previous historical non-compliant estimate…as a result, total resources came out 15% higher…resources in the indicated category are 4.04 million tonnes grading 11.8% lead and zinc (5.3% lead, 6.5% zinc) as well as 41 g/t Ag and 0.11% Cu… inferred resources are 4.67 million tonnes grading 9.8% lead and zinc (4.44% lead, 5.4% zinc), 32 g/t Ag and 0.14 Cu…Toral has significant exploration and development upside as a majority of the historical drilling (40,000+ metres) was conducted over one relatively small part of the property…the zone of sulphide mineralization is open along strike to the northwest toward a known lead deposit as well as along strike to the southeast and downdip…the project is also an ideal candidate for a fast-track to production…the deposit is close to a power line, highway and rail line…a large smelter is located just 300 kilometers away by rail…despite the recent sharp setback, GoldQuest is up 15% since we introduced it to BMR readers last fall at 19.5 cents…

Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V)

Greencastle continues to struggle as the stock fell as low as 16 cents last week and closed at 17.5 cents for a weekly loss of a penny…Greencastle’s market cap is just $8 million which means the stock is now trading at cash value…history shows that whenever this occurs in VGN, a terrific buying opportunity has opened up…it’s interesting to note that the stock’s rising 500-day moving average (SMA) and its 1000-day SMA, which has flattened out, have converged at 17 cents…VGN’s strong underlying fundamental value is clearly shown in the latest financials which were released March 24…as of December 31, Greencastle held $5.1 million in cash and $2.6 million in marketable securities…some of those securities are likely shares in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) while the company disclosed it held 1,148,000 shares of Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM, TSX-V), formerly Avaranta, which started trading on the Venture Exchange January 25…continued firm oil prices will maintain or increase Greencastle’s monthly cash flow of approximately $130,000 as it receives royalties from heavy crude production at Primate in Saskatchewan…Greencastle tripled in value over a six-week period from late October to early December…since the beginning of January, though, the stock has struggled due mostly to impatient investors frustrated with the lack of news…patience is required here…over the years the successful strategy with Greencastle has been to accumulate on weakness when the stock is near cash value and then sell into strength when something develops…with $8 million in working capital, three Gold properties (including land near Richfield’s Blackwater Project) and monthly cash flow from an oil royalty, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Greencastle offers excellent value at current levels…the long-term chart remains very encouraging with rising 200 and 300-day SMA’s that are in no danger of reversing…it’s also important to note that President and CEO Tony Roodenburg, a large shareholder in VGN, refrained from selling any of his holdings during the late 2010 run-up in the share price…this is different from past bullish in the stock and adds further credence to our view that we haven’t seen the highs in this cycle yet from Greencastle – it’s poised for what we believe could be a massive breakout sometime this year…Pinetree Capital has also accumulated more shares in Greencastle, so there’s every reason to be very optimistic regarding this company’s prospects…investors need to be patient, however, as they often do with Roodenburg’s plays…Greencastle is up 25% since we added it back in to the BMR model portfolio last October…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)

Adventure Gold has had a phenomenal chart for many months but some cracks are finally beginning to appear…the stock was off 9 cents last week, closing exactly at its 100-day moving average (SMA) of 56 cents which has provided exceptional support since AGE started its big run last September…however, the 50-day SMA is now reversing to the downside and that’s always a danger sign…selling pressure as shown by the CMF has intensified which is also worrisome, so AGE does look vulnerable to a potential drop from here…the 200-day SMA at 44 cents will provide support…Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) has started a 4,000-metre drill program at AGE’s Dubuisson Property near Val d’or…Dubuisson is contiguous to the Goldex mine property and also straddles a 5-kilometre segment of the prolific Cadillac-Larder Lake Gold break…the company released good results from two more holes April 7 from its recently completed Phase 1 drill program at the Pascalis Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…hole #17 intersected four separate zones of mineralization at depths ranging from 6 metres to 187 metres (5.7 g/t Au over 4.3 metres, 4.6 g/t Au over 5.7 metres, 12.9 g/t Au over 8 metres, and 5 g/t Au over 6.1 metres)…hole #16 intersected 5.5 g/t Au over 5.9 metres…results from five more holes are pending…follow-up drilling will commence once all assays have been received and reviewed…a NI-43-101 resource calculation is planned for later this year…AGE’s latest financials, released April 1, show the company with $3 million in working capital at the end of January…AGE runs an efficient operation and knows where to direct its energies…we expect AGE will begin drilling its Granada Extension Property in the near future…results from Gold Bullion reveal exciting potential over the far western portion of GBB’s Preliminary Block Model which supports Adventure Gold’s geological interpretation that it holds part of the western extension of the LONG Bars Zone…we first mentioned Adventure Gold to our readers in an article September 29, just a couple of days following the company’s announcement that it had acquired land at Granada, when the stock was trading in the low 20′s…we officially added AGE to the BMR model portfolio at just 34 cents October 28…Adventure Gold has been around only since late 2007 and we are impressed by the company’s solid portfolio of properties (19 in six strategic areas in Quebec and Ontario)…also of immediate interest is AGE’s partnership with Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) on the Meunier 144 Property where deep drilling is still testing the down plunge extension of Gold zones located at the Timmins and Thunder Creek deposits…the current initial deep drill hole onto the Meunier JV property is continuing and is on track to reach the 2,400 metre target level by the end of this month…if a discovery is made, AGE could explode…

Sidon International (SD, TSX-V)

Sidon fell as low as 4.5 cents last week and closed at a nickel for a weekly loss of a penny…there has been no news from the company since March 14 when it announced a proposed private placement at 8 cents and an option to acquire an 80% interest in a 50-square kilometre property adjacent to Canaco’s (CAN, TSX-V) Handeni discovery in Tanzania…Sidon has yet to recover from a sharp drop in early March following disappointing assay results from its Morogoro East Gold Property…the six shallow holes drilled in December at Morogoro East did not produce significant results, the best hole showing 3 metres grading 1.7 g/t Au…the company has drilled four deeper holes with results for those still pending…what the initial six holes have given Sidon, however, is a better understanding of the Morogoro geological structure which will aid in any future drilling…exploration, especially at such an early stage, is never easy and disappointing early results don’t necessarily mean a property doesn’t hold excellent potential…the company is also trying to develop a placer operation at Morogoro…there is certainly hope here for better days ahead for Sidon…from a technical standpoint, previous support between 9 and 10 cents will now provide resistance…the turnaround in the stock price will start once the 50-day SMA has reversed to the upside…Sidon is now unchanged since we introduced it to BMR readers a year ago at a nickel…the company currently has approximately 140 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $7  million…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

Seafield closed Friday at 23.5 cents, its rising 500-day moving average (SMA), which was a loss of 2 more pennies for the week…while we weren’t expecting a drop this low, we’d certainly be shocked if SFF couldn’t find support in the 23 to 24 cent range…the downside risk from here appears to be very limited based on technical and fundamental considerations…in otherwords, the risk-reward ratio at the moment is looking extremely attractive with SFF…this is also why we like the warrants that started trading recently (they closed at 6.5 cents Friday) as they provide excellent leverage though one stands the risk of losing most or all of their money in that trade…each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at a price of 75 cents per share and will expire on Friday, Dec. 21, 2012…the company announced April 5 that drilling has commenced at Santa Sofia, about one kilometre north of Dos Quebradas where drilling continues…Seafield geologists have identified a promising porphyry target measuring 1,050 metres in length and 850 metres in width at Santa Sofia with soil values up to 2.3 g/t Au…on March 7, assays were reported from the first three holes completed at Dos Quebradas with hole #2 intersecting a whopping 511 metres grading 0.58 g/t Au…the hole ended in mineralization…hole #1 delivered 269 metres grading 0.37 g/t Au while hole #3 was drilled to define the eastern limit of mineralization and returned no significant results…a total of 10 holes were completed at Dos Quebradas as of early this month…significant intercepts well outside areas of historical drilling would start to get the market excited…the geological case for Seafield’s Quinchia land package is compelling and we’re looking forward to more results from Dos Quebradas as well as initial assays from Santa Sofia…the company has already outlined a NI-43-101 inferred resource of nearly 800,000 ounces at its Miraflores Property, a number that’s expected to increase following the 12-hole, 4,000 metre program completed late last year…patient investors have an opportunity to do extremely well with this play given the geological merits of Quinchia and the real potential for 5 million+ ounces from several potential deposits…the company is sitting on at least $15 million in cash and has a very modest market cap of $39 million…Seafield has gained 292% since we made it the first company in the BMR model portfolio in the summer of 2009…it’s encouraging to see that Anglo-Ashanti Ltd., the world’s third largest Gold producer, plans to spend $300 million over the next three years on further exploration in Colombia…

11 Comments

  1. THANKS FOR ALL OF THE UPDATES

    Comment by GREG H — May 8, 2011 @ 7:54 pm

  2. Good to see that Anthony Roodenburg is no longer CEO of SFF and James Pirie has gone too!

    Comment by Andrew — May 9, 2011 @ 4:42 am

  3. Have to wonder about the past track record here seems to be a progression of pump and dump plays They were hot in the fall

    here is my record from BMR indicators. Think I could do better with a dart board 🙂

    CQX -66.64%
    EVR -25.71%
    SD -78.09%
    TYE -63.86%
    VGN -51.88%

    No doubt I will get a you should have sold after a 10% hit reply on this but all were plugged at prices higher than my buy ins

    Comment by Mike — May 9, 2011 @ 6:07 am

  4. Does this mean that Roodenburg will now focus on VGN? Lets hope so!

    Also not sure what all the Roodenburg bashing is about. This guy was instrumental in building SFF. The recent share price is corelated to sluggishness in the ventures and lack of news of what was clearly a big news spike earlier. People should have banked profit when that stock exploded.

    Comment by Herb — May 9, 2011 @ 6:11 am

  5. Herb, his/their track record is not good. He didn’t even know what date it was when he held the conference call on 15th February. He’s failed to deliver on what he said in that call. The nr in December was, in my mind, deceptive as it was just a repeat of a previously drilled hole. So he and Pirie made a fortune from it and then just watched the sp sink. He didn’t even give the Miraflores revised resource estimate as promised. The rate of progress after the huge financing is at a snail’s pace. I don’t really care, as I’ve said before I wouldn’t touch a company that these two run ie: now VGN.

    Comment by Andrew — May 9, 2011 @ 6:40 am

  6. Well I was a previous share holder in SFF and made good money from it but then I stopped following them so I guess I am not really qaulified to comment on his recent activity. I did think he did a good job of getting the company to that point. I bought some VGN recently as I think he will bring that company forward soon too. I read their company yearly report on SEDAR and I think things are going to heat up in VGN soon. It would be good if BMR brought him back for another interview.

    Comment by Herb — May 9, 2011 @ 7:03 am

  7. I hope so, Herb. Before I invest, if I do, in VGN I would wait for the technical and fundamentals to change – ie. VGN needs to actually do something! 🙂 TYE had a lousy news release this morning and they border RVC.

    Comment by Andrew — May 9, 2011 @ 7:09 am

  8. Ill check that out thanks

    Comment by Herb — May 9, 2011 @ 7:14 am

  9. I have to agree with Andrew on T. Roodenburg.

    I had confidence in him but from the moment Seafield got the market’s attention back in Dec 2010, he has built NO shareholder value to it’s Investors that got stuck in the Private Placement nor any new investors during that entire period. Take a look at that disastrous chart since then, and who can win, nobody, unless you have shorted. I am extremely happy he and his side kick J. Pirie are now out the door as sentiment on this company was terrible! Nothing but broken promises with meeting New’s releases to the still outstanding Technical Report. The new Management will definitely bring some new energy in the company and this looks like a great first entry point.

    Too bad I have been listening to BMR and have been buying this POS ever since Dec! They should not be touting how much they made since they covered it because almost no one knew about this company since then and if they did they would have sold by now and locked in some profits.

    Comment by Mike — May 9, 2011 @ 7:15 am

  10. yep – thats a disappointinig release alright, thanks for sharing.

    Comment by Herb — May 9, 2011 @ 7:24 am

  11. Hello Jon, Why do you say “the stock became extremely oversold based on RSI levels” for VGD. As far as I can see it is just playing borderline being oversold? Thanks

    Comment by Andrew — May 9, 2011 @ 9:42 am

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