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May 22, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 3 Of 3

Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V)

Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) dropped half a penny last week on continued light volume…the stock, which closed Friday at 26 cents, has – amazingly – fallen for seven consecutive weeks but we suspect the bloodletting has finally stopped…VGD hit a low of 23 cents Tuesday before buyers quickly stepped up to the plate…this is an aggressive company with about 18 cents per share in working capital at the end of the first quarter and two drill programs in progress…exploration is also expected to begin soon at what we consider to be VGD’s flagship property, Joutel, which is a joint venture with Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX)…Visible Gold Mines is the operator…BMR was the first to discover Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V), which led to massive profits for some of our readers, and we’re confident history could repeat itself with Visible Gold Mines as we are on this story before anyone else through careful research and due diligence…VGD is blessed with strong management and one of the best geologists in the country in Robert Sansfacon who was instrumental in the discovery of Osisko’s (OSK, TSX) Canadian Malartic Deposit…VGD is certainly emerging as an exploration leader in northwest Quebec, specifically in the Rouyn-Noranda region…Joutel is a significant former Gold-Silver producer that gave birth to Agnico-Eagle in the 1970′s…Sansfacon believes a lot has yet to be discovered at Joutel which is why he’s so eager to tackle that project…at the moment VGD is running two drill programs with one rig at the Silidor Gold Property, also a former producer, and another rig at its Kanasuta claims (Cadillac Break Project) very close to Vantex Resources‘ (VAX, TSX-V) Moriss Zone discovery at its Galloway Project…following completion of four holes at Kanasuta, the drill rig is expected to move east to the area near Richmont Mines‘ (RIC, TSX) growing Wasamac deposit…initial drill results from VGD’s Silidor Property were released April 20…each of the first 10 holes at Silidor intersected mineralization and Hole #8 is of particular interest as four sections of Gold were hit between depths of 70.85 metres and 130.5 metres including 2.70 metres grading 5.45 g/t Au and 1.5 metres grading 5.70 g/t Au…this area has never been drilled before and it’s 700 metres southwest of the former Silidor mine…a total of 23 holes were completed by April 20 (assays pending for 13 of them) and drilling continues in a northeasterly direction toward the former mine…things could get extremely interesting in a real hurry at Silidor with geologists of the opinion they could be closing in on a series of ore shoots…Silidor is just one of four major projects Visible Gold Mines is currently advancing…besides Joutel and Cadillac Break, VGD holds the Stadacona-East Property at Rouyn-Noranda which has an inferred resource of 164,000 ounces with potential for significant expansion with additional drilling…the President and CEO of Visible Gold Mines is Martin Dallaire, a very successful entrepreneur in Rouyn-Noranda with an engineering degree who understands the mining industry and what an exploration company needs to do to succeed and build shareholder value…Dallaire is fluently bilingual, presents himself extremely well and knows how to run a business and make money…he thinks big but is focused…he has also recruited some key people including Sansfacon, a highly respected geologist who honed his skills for many years with Lac Minerals…in short, Dallaire has put something together you don’t often see in the junior speculative market – a powerful dynamic of business, geological and marketing expertise with a strategic plan to rapidly build value…the company’s niche and sole geological focus is northwestern Quebec where it has acquired several promising land packages, mostly west and north of Rouyn-Noranda…Dallaire is taking an aggressive approach to exploration and he’s targeting under-explored areas and past producing mines where major new extensions are possible…

GoldQuest Mining (GQX, TSX-V)

GoldQuest fell a nickel last week to 18.5 cents but on low volume…the stock is now slightly below its 300 and 500-day moving averages but that doesn’t concern us as these long-term SMA’s continue to rise and are in no danger of rolling over anytime soon…technically and fundamentally, the downside risk from current levels is very limited in our view…the stock became extremely oversold recently based on a range of indicators…the 200-day SMA at 29 cents continues to rise and that’s where major resistance can be expected for now on the upside…the substantial drop in the share price from a high of 48.5 cents in early February was due to general market weakness and selling from speculators whose expectations may have been too high regarding initial drill results from the company’s La Escandalosa Project in the Dominican Republic…the results were decent though far from spectacular…the final set of assays for 7 holes came out last Monday…the best intersection from Escandalosa Sur, where an initial 43-101 inferred resource of 400,000 ounces was outlined last fall, was 20 meters grading 1.32 g/t Au…results from this area overall (21 holes) were somewhat disappointing though more drilling is required and will take place later this year…however, the company drilled three holes at the Hondo Valle target 1.6 kilometres to the north (outside the resource area) and all three intersected significant mineralization including 29 metres grading 2.18 g/t Au in hole #65…that’s the thickest and highest grade mineralized section drilled to date at Hondo Valle…the theory is that mineralization trends north from Escandalosa Sur to Hondo Valle…GoldQuest is carrying out a 16-square kilometre IP survey and magnetic ground geophysical survey from 2 kilometres north of Hondo Valle to 2.2 kilometres south of Escandalosa Sur…this will be completed by the end of July and GQC will use the data to pinpoint key targets for an additional 3,000 metres of drilling…GoldQuest also has other promising projects in the DR it’s working on in addition to its lead-zinc-silver deposit in Spain…GoldQuest’s potential has not diminished whatsoever yet the share price has dropped by more than half from its early February high…the company released a 43-101 resource estimate March 2 on its Toral zinc-lead-Silver deposit in Spain…it showed slightly lower grades but much higher overall tonnage than the previous historical non-compliant estimate…as a result, total resources came out 15% higher…resources in the indicated category are 4.04 million tonnes grading 11.8% lead and zinc (5.3% lead, 6.5% zinc) as well as 41 g/t Ag and 0.11% Cu… inferred resources are 4.67 million tonnes grading 9.8% lead and zinc (4.44% lead, 5.4% zinc), 32 g/t Ag and 0.14 Cu…Toral has significant exploration and development upside as a majority of the historical drilling (40,000+ metres) was conducted over one relatively small part of the property…the zone of sulphide mineralization is open along strike to the northwest toward a known lead deposit as well as along strike to the southeast and downdip…the project is also an ideal candidate for a fast-track to production…the deposit is close to a power line, highway and rail line…a large smelter is located just 300 kilometers away by rail…

Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V)

All remains quiet with Greencastle which was off half a penny last week at 17.5 cents…the fact Tony Roodenburg is no longer at the helm of Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) is a positive development in our view for Greencastle…Roodenburg had been trying to ease his way out of Seafield since 2009 without much success until earlier this month…he’ll now be able to focus almost exclusively on Greencastle which has been a favorite project of his for many years…we suspect he’s going to take a serious look at spinning out the oil assets or the Gold assets into a separate company…Greencastle’s market cap is just $8 million which means the stock is trading at cash value…history shows that whenever this occurs in VGN, a terrific buying opportunity has opened up though investors must be patient…it’s interesting to note that the stock’s rising 500-day moving average (SMA) and its 1000-day SMA, which has flattened out, have converged at 17 cents…VGN’s strong underlying fundamental value is clearly shown in the latest financials which were released March 24…as of December 31, Greencastle held $5.1 million in cash and $2.6 million in marketable securities…some of those securities are likely shares in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) while the company disclosed it held 1,148,000 shares of Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM, TSX-V), formerly Avaranta, which started trading on the Venture Exchange January 25…current oil prices should maintain Greencastle’s monthly cash flow of approximately $130,000 as it receives royalties from heavy crude production at Primate in Saskatchewan…Greencastle tripled in value over a six-week period from late October to early December…since the beginning of January, though, the stock has struggled due mostly to impatient investors frustrated with the lack of news…patience is required here…over the years the successful strategy with Greencastle has been to accumulate on weakness when the stock is near cash value and then sell into strength when something develops…with $8 million in working capital, three Gold properties (including land near Richfield’s Blackwater Project) and monthly cash flow from an oil royalty, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Greencastle offers excellent value at current levels…the long-term chart remains very encouraging with rising 200 and 300-day SMA’s that are in no danger of reversing at the moment…it’s also important to note that Roodenburg, a large shareholder in VGN, refrained from selling any of his holdings during the late 2010 run-up in the share price…this is different from past bullish in the stock and adds further credence to our view that we haven’t seen the highs in this cycle yet from Greencastle – it’s poised for what we believe could be a massive breakout sometime this year…Pinetree Capital has also accumulated more shares in Greencastle, so there’s every reason to be very optimistic regarding this company’s prospects…Greencastle is up 20% since we added it back in to the BMR model portfolio last October…

Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V)

We recently warned about some potential weakness in Adventure Gold based on technical factors, and indeed that’s what has occurred…the stock found support as predicted at the 200-day moving average (SMA) in the mid-40’s last week (it fell as low as 45 cents Wednesday and then rebounded on strong volume)…AGE closed Friday at 51 cents, a loss of 4 pennies for the week…the declining 10-day SMA, currently at 54 cents, and the declining 20-day SMA, currently at 58 cents, are areas of resistance for now on the upside and no doubt they will be tested soon…overall, the long-term technical picture remains very encouraging…Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) has started a 4,000-metre drill program at AGE’s Dubuisson Property near Val d’or…Dubuisson is contiguous to the Goldex mine property and also straddles a 5-kilometre segment of the prolific Cadillac-Larder Lake Gold break…the company released good results from two more holes April 7 from its recently completed Phase 1 drill program at the Pascalis Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…hole #17 intersected four separate zones of mineralization at depths ranging from 6 metres to 187 metres (5.7 g/t Au over 4.3 metres, 4.6 g/t Au over 5.7 metres, 12.9 g/t Au over 8 metres, and 5 g/t Au over 6.1 metres)…hole #16 intersected 5.5 g/t Au over 5.9 metres…results from five more holes are pending…follow-up drilling will commence once all assays have been received and reviewed…a NI-43-101 resource calculation is planned for later this year…AGE’s latest financials, released April 1, show the company with $3 million in working capital at the end of January…AGE runs an efficient operation and knows where to direct its energies…we first mentioned Adventure Gold to our readers in an article September 29, just a couple of days following the company’s announcement that it had acquired land at Granada, when the stock was trading in the low 20′s…we officially added AGE to the BMR model portfolio at just 34 cents October 28…Adventure Gold has been around only since late 2007 and we are impressed by the company’s solid portfolio of properties (19 in six strategic areas in Quebec and Ontario)…also of immediate interest is AGE’s partnership with Lake Shore Gold (LSG, TSX) on the Meunier 144 Property where deep drilling is still testing the down-plunge extension of Gold zones located at the Timmins and Thunder Creek deposits…the current initial deep drill hole onto the Meunier JV property is continuing and is on track to reach the 2,400 metre target level by the end of this month…if a discovery is made, AGE will instantly explode higher…

Sidon International (SD, TSX-V)

Nothing new to report here…Sidon fell as low as 4 cents last week and closed Friday 4.5 cents for a weekly loss of half a penny…there has been no news from the company since March 14 when it announced a proposed private placement at 8 cents and an option to acquire an 80% interest in a 50-square kilometre property adjacent to Canaco’s (CAN, TSX-V) Handeni discovery in Tanzania…Sidon has yet to recover from a sharp drop in early March following disappointing assay results from its Morogoro East Gold Property…the six shallow holes drilled in December at Morogoro East did not produce significant results, the best hole showing 3 metres grading 1.7 g/t Au…the company has drilled four deeper holes with results for those still pending…what the initial six holes have given Sidon, however, is a better understanding of the Morogoro geological structure which will aid in any future drilling…exploration, especially at such an early stage, is never easy and disappointing early results don’t necessarily mean a property doesn’t hold excellent potential…the company is also trying to develop a placer operation at Morogoro…there is certainly hope here for better days ahead for Sidon…from a technical standpoint, previous support between 9 and 10 cents will now provide resistance…the turnaround in the stock price will start once the 50-day SMA has reversed to the upside…Sidon is now unchanged since we introduced it to BMR readers a year ago at a nickel…the company currently has approximately 140 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $6.3  million…

Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V)

Seafield appeared to have some momentum going entering last week, following some major news, but the stock reversed course again and closed at its weekly low of 21 cents for a loss of 3.5 pennies for the week…SFF is now just 3 pennies above its rising 1000-day moving average (SMA), so it’s obviously in strong buy territory…there was big news out of Seafield May 9 with a change in management which has to be considered a bullish development…Cesar Lopez, who has a strong background in South American exploration management and development, is the company’s new Chief Executive Officer…he replaces Tony Roodenburg who will remain as a director…Tom Henricksen, meanwhile, takes over as Vice-President, Exploration, from James Pirie who also remains as a director…Henricksen has over 35 years of mineral exploration experience and has spent the last 15 years on projects in South America…Seafield exploded from the low 20′s to an all-time high of 77 cents in just one day last December but has since given up all of those gains…the company’s Quinchia land package in Colombia has a great deal of untapped potential and Seafield is also sitting on approximately $15 million in cash…the new management group is conducting a private placement for 10 million units at 30 cents which will raise another $3 million…the company announced April 5 that drilling has commenced at Santa Sofia, about 1 kilometre north of Dos Quebradas where drilling continues…Seafield geologists have identified a promising porphyry target measuring 1,050 metres in length and 850 metres in width at Santa Sofia with soil values up to 2.3 g/t Au…on March 7, assays were reported from the first three holes completed at Dos Quebradas with hole #2 intersecting a whopping 511 metres grading 0.58 g/t Au…the hole ended in mineralization…hole #1 delivered 269 metres grading 0.37 g/t Au while hole #3 was drilled to define the eastern limit of mineralization and returned no significant results…a total of 10 holes were completed at Dos Quebradas as of early this month…significant intercepts well outside areas of historical drilling would start to get the market excited…the geological case for Seafield’s Quinchia land package is compelling and we’re looking forward to more results from Dos Quebradas as well as initial assays from Santa Sofia…the company has already outlined a NI-43-101 inferred resource of nearly 800,000 ounces at its Miraflores Property, a number that’s expected to increase following the 12-hole, 4,000 metre program completed late last year…patient investors have an opportunity to do extremely well with this play given the geological merits of Quinchia and the real potential for 5 million+ ounces from several potential deposits…we have confidence the new management group will unlock value by bringing fresh insight and new energy to this play along with a more aggressive exploration approach…Seafield has gained 250% since we made it the first company in the BMR model portfolio in the summer of 2009…its current market cap of $32 million is very modest given its cash position and resource potential…

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