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November 6, 2019

BMR Evening Alert!

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7 @ 7:00

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1. Gold has traded between $1,490 and $1,483 so far today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal has added $4 an ounce to $1,487Gold suddenly tumbled to a near 3-week low of $1,479 yesterday, registering its biggest 1-day percentage drop since late September at 1.7%…some better-than-expected U.S. economic data and hopes of a detente in the U.S.-China trade battle boosted sentiment regarding the global economic outlook and pressured safe-haven assets like bullion and government bonds…investors now await new developments on the talks after reports that China is pushing President Trump to remove more tariffs imposed in September as part of a “Phase 1” trade deal…Silver backed off yesterday and again this morning but remains in a new uptrend channel on its short-term chart with strong support stretching from $17.50 to the $17.20’s…Silver off just 2 cents at $17.53 as of 7:00 am Pacific after successfully testing lower levels earlier…Nickel, Copper, Zinc and Cobalt are all relatively flat at $7.42, $2.67, $1.16 and $16.10, respectively…Crude Oil has gained 8 cents to $57.31 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down one-tenth of a point at 97.86…Saudi Arabia is set to push OPEC to make deeper production cuts by pressuring laggard members ahead of its state-run Oil company’s massive IPO, according to a Wall Street Journal report…the effort is aimed at bolstering Oil prices and reminding potential Aramco investors of Saudi Arabia’s considerable sway within OPEC…Nigeria has apparently agreed to improve compliance and lobby other African producers to follow suit…the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI rose to a reading of 54.7% in October, up from September’s 52.6%…the 2.1 percentage-point advance surprised the markets yesterday with consensus expectations calling for the index to come in at 53.5%…however, data released this morning wasn’t as encouraging – U.S. productivity for Q3 dropped by most since the 4th quarter of 2015 according to the Labor Department…

2. Jinchuan Group, China’s top Nickel producer, will feel some impact from Indonesia’s ban on ore exports, but will be able to plug the supply gap, partly by using its own mines, a company executive said yesterday…Indonesia, the world’s largest Nickel ore producing country, has left its biggest customers in China – mostly manufacturers of primary Nickel – fearing a raw material shortage after bringing forward a ban on ore exports…China’s imports of Nickel ore and concentrate from Indonesia in September rose to the highest monthly volume since at least 2016 at around 2.5 million tonnes, about 35% of its total imports of the commodity, official data showed…“Indonesia should have some impact,” Jack Zhou, general manager of Jinchuan Group Nickel Salts Co, told Reuters on the sidelines of the China International Nickel and Cobalt Industry Forum in Yichang…“But we at Jinchuan will be able to make up the deficit (from) our own ore assets and mines in Qinghai.  We can use all of that,” he said…Qinghai is a province in northwestern China that borders Jinchuan’s home province of Gansu…Jinchuan will produce around 180,000 tonnes of Nickel this year, more than last year…the “Big Picture” outlook for Nickel, however, remains exceedingly bright…the traditional production focus on stainless steel may prevent adequate supply of battery-preferential Nickel coming online even though this sector will eventually eclipse stainless steel demand at a time when reserves of high quality Nickel sulphide around the globe and are in decline…that’s why projects such as Nickel Mountain are so critical…

3. The price of Western Canadian Select Crude Oil is reeling as Canadian Oil producers struggle with the continuing shutdown of TC Energy’s (TC, TSX; TRP, NYSE) Keystone pipeline…barrels of WCS were trading at $35.09 late yesterday, down from $38.20 the previous Wednesday – the day after the Keystone pipeline spilled more than 9,000 barrels of Oil in northeastern North Dakota…the spill, which the company said was enough to fill half of an Olympic-size swimming pool, forced the shutdown of a main artery taking Canadian Oil from Alberta to refiners in the U.S. Midwest…the current price for Canadian Crude represents a >$22 discount to U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate prices, the most since December 2018, according to S&P Global Platts…”This underscores how Canadian energy is held hostage to just a small number of pipelines,” said Michael Tran, an energy analyst for RBC Capital Markets…for that, of course, we can thank a federal government that’s hostile to the Canadian Oil and gas sector…losing Keystone reduces the ability of producers to move 590,000 barrels a day out of Alberta…that has prompted executives, who have long complained about Canadian governments’ inability to get new pipelines approved, to scramble to fill the gap…a TC Energy spokesman said there is no word yet on when Keystone will be operating again…the company said on its website Monday that 200 people are working around the clock to fix the leak and clean up the spill…the company expects to dig up and extract the damaged section of pipe by the end of this week…though the pipeline is shut from Alberta to Oklahoma and Illinois, it remains open on its southern leg from Oklahoma to the Gulf Coast…

4. This should prove interesting – a pair of proposed Natural gas projects in B.C. and Quebec will serve as the testing ground for Trudeau’s new environmental assessment regime, an expanded review process that is almost certain to hamstring major projects…both the Gazoduq pipeline, a key feature in a $14 billion plan to export liquefied Natural gas from Saguenay, Quebec, and Cedar LNG, an export facility proposed for construction in Kitimat, B.C., will be subject to regulatory changes introduced under Bill C-69…they are among 4 initial projects that will fall under the new review process, which came into force in August….the Gazoduq pipeline would tie into an existing Natural gas pipeline system in Ontario and run 780 km east to the Saguenay Fjord, where GNL Québec is proposing to build a liquefaction facility…from there, roughly 11 million tonnes per year of liquefied gas would be shipped down the fjord and into the Saint Lawrence River, eventually reaching overseas markets (the LNG facility itself, Énergie Saguenay, is being reviewed under the 2012 rules)…Équiterre, the radical advocacy group cofounded by newly-elected Liberal MP Steven Guilbeault who is likely to play a key role in a Trudeau cabinet, is vehemently opposed to the facility and has gathered 40,000 signatures in a bid to stop its development…as these lunatics campaign to “save the planet”, they think nothing of killing Canadian jobs and prosperity…

5. The Dow, in all-time high territory, is relatively unchanged as of 7:00 am Pacific…the Dow’s year-to-date gain now stands at nearly 18% after rallying 3.3% in the past month…the S&P 500 is up more than 22% this year after surging 4% in the past month…corporate profits have been largely solid this earnings season as 75% of S&P 500 companies to report thus far have topped analysts’ expectations, FactSet data show…in Toronto, the TSX has added 37 points…the Gold Index has rebounded 1.5 points to 240 after weakness yesterday…its overall technical posture remains very positive…higher Gold prices helped boost Newmont Goldcorp’s (NGT, TSX; NEM, NYSE) revenues up by 57% in the 3rd quarter but it still wasn’t strong enough to meet earnings expectations…Q3 adjusted net income for the world’s largest Gold miner was $292 million or $0.36 per diluted share, up compared to $175 million or $0.33 per diluted share in the prior year quarter…however, the earnings number was a slight miss…the Venture is steady at 539Canada Cobalt (CCW, TSX-V) is the early volume leader as interest intensifies in multiple CCW initiatives in the Northern Ontario Silver-Cobalt Camp, including a potential new high-grade Silver discovery less than 2 km from +60 million ounces of historical production as crews prepare to follow up on 189 oz/ton Ag over a core length of 3.1 m at depth in the Nipissing diabase…Wallbridge Mining (WM, TSX) is unchanged at 67 cents while neighbor Balmoral Resources (BAR, TSX) is up a penny-and-a-half at 23.5 cents…Bee Vectoring Technologies (BEE, TSX-V) is still buzzing, up 4 cents at 47 cents…the Financial Post reported this morning that Canadian cannabis producers and extractors are sitting on a massive stash of unfinished inventory that is growing so quickly that some analysts are concerned it could precipitate a price crash in the burgeoning industry…since January of this year , the amount of unfinished inventory of dried cannabis has nearly tripled, reaching a staggering 328,000 kilograms at the end of August…this compares to roughly 118,000 kilograms 8 months earlier, according to Health Canada data…

6. New Gold (NGD, TSX, NYSE) has reported a net loss of $25 million (U.S.) or 4 cents per share for Q3, though all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) for the year are expected to achieve the low end of annual guidance of $1,330 to $1,430 (U.S.) per Gold equivalent ounce…“The company has delivered another quarter of improving operational and cost performance from both assets as we continue to advance our short-term operational plan and reposition the company for long-term success,” stated CEO Renaud Adams…“The quarter over quarter improvement in our performance has underpinned the completion of a strategic equity financing during the quarter, which allowed us to reduce our debt position by $100 million and strengthen our balance sheet.  We will maintain our diligent focus on completing substantially all remaining construction projects at Rainy River in order to reposition the asset for efficient and sustainable mining, as we continue to advance C-zone development at New Afton.  We continue to advance our updated life of mine plans for Rainy River and New Afton, which are expected to be released in mid-first quarter of 2020 and provide a path forward that is premised on maximizing profitability and shareholder value creation”

7. Investment demand is once again proving itself to be the dominant force in the Gold market as demand for Gold-backed exchange traded products (ETFs) saw its strongest quarter in 3 years according to the latest research from the World Gold Council…in its quarterly Gold Demand Trend report, the WGC said that inflows into ETFs between July and September totaled 258.2 tonnes, the largest increase since the 1st quarter of 2016…the WGC added that September saw ETF Gold holdings rise to a record level of 2,855 tonnes, surpassing the previous peak set in 2012…in total, the global Gold market saw modest demand growth of 1,107.9 tonnes (t) in the 3rd quarter, the report said…a 2nd pillar of strength in the Gold market during the 3rd quarter was continued central bank demand…the WGC said that central banks purchases in the 3rd quarter totaled 156 tonnes, up 12% for the year…

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November 5, 2019

BMR Evening Alert!

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BMR Morning Alert!

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November 4, 2019

BMR Evening Alert!

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7 @ 7:00

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1. Gold remains resilient, though the price has been stuck in a tight range on either side of $1,500 for 8 weeks now…as of 7:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $4 an ounce at $1,510…it has traded between $1,508 and $1,515 so far today…$1,515 to $1,520 is key nearest resistance…China is set to launch a new cryptocurrency backed by Gold, reports over the weekend said…Turkey’s official Gold reserves continue to climb…according to central bank data, Turkish Gold reserves are now up 42% year-over-year…American Eagle Gold-coin sales from the U.S. Mint more than doubled in October, versus September, and were the highest since March…the U.S. and China have signalled further progress toward a breakthrough in trade talks that could culminate in a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping later this month…Silver is in a new uptrend channel that should lead the metal to fresh 2019 highs before year-end…Silver is up 2 pennies at $18.10 as of 7:00 am PacificNickel has slipped 13 cents to $7.50…Copper and Zinc are each up a penny at $2.66 and $1.17, respectively, while Cobalt remains steady at $16.10…Crude Oil has gained another 80 cents to $57.09 while the Dollar Index has rebounded one-tenth of a point to 97.37…more problems in Chile…1 person is dead following an incident at Sprott Resource Holdings‘ (SRHI, TSX) MTV mine…a security guard was confronted by several individuals not associated with the mine’s operations, damaging company property…as a result of the altercation, the security guard was severely injured and one of the individuals fatally shot…

2. Global stocks are lagging behind U.S. shares, illustrating how investors’ faith in the domestic economy continues to drive a growing divergence in financial markets…after rising to a fresh record last week following upbeat figures on 3rd quarter economic growth and October hiring, the S&P 500 is up 22% for the year and on track for its best annual performance since 2013…meanwhile, the MSCI AC World ex USA Index (covers ~85% of the global equity opportunity set outside the U.S.) is up only 13% and had struggled to eclipse its year-to-date peak before a Friday rally…U.S. stocks have also become more expensive relative to global equities in recent years and are pricier than many overseas gauges relative to corporate earnings over the past 12 months, FactSet data show…the trend shows how steady consumer spending, strength in the labor market, strong corporate earnings, low taxes, deregulation and an accommodative Fed keep supporting U.S. stocks despite (overblown) fears of a recession and significant moves toward haven assets like bonds and Gold…all 11 S&P 500 sectors have risen in 2019, led by a 36% surge in the information technology group…shares of several large companies are up 60% or more, including Apple, Target and Chipolte Mexican Grill

3. A single large player manipulated the price of Bitcoin as it ran up to a peak of nearly $20,000 2 years ago, a new study concludes…the study reviewed the period between March 2017 and March 2018 when the price of Bitcoin soared and its total market value rose to $326 billion…about half of that increase was due to the influence of a manipulation scheme, according to the study’s authors…they said the unknown manipulator operated from a single account at Bitfinex, the largest cryptocurrency exchange at the time…the manipulator used another cryptocurrency, called tether, to boost demand for Bitcoin, leading to the price surge…it isn’t clear by how much or if the manipulator profited…the study, written by John M. Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas with a background in forensics, and Ohio State University finance professor Amin Shams, was accepted for publication by the influential Journal of Finance and was published online today…an earlier version of the study argued tether was being used to manipulate Bitcoin prices, but didn’t connect the scheme to one entity…

4. The Dow has hit a new all-time high in early trading, following in the footsteps of the S&P and the NASDAQ last week…investor sentiment has been lifted by a variety of factors including fresh optimism around a potential Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal…the Dow is up 142 points as of 7:00 am Pacific, touching its first all-time high since mid-July…Apple is by far the best-performing Dow stock since the index hit its previous record, rallying more than 25%…Intel, J.P. Morgan Chase and United Technologies are all up at least 10% during that time…in Toronto, the TSX has added 53 points…the Gold Index is off 1 point at 246 but its overall technical posture remains very positive…the Venture is up slightly at 542…some of last week’s big winners on the resource side continue to push higher…Wallbridge Mining (WM, TSX) has added 4 cents to 72 cents, hitting a fresh 12-year high, while neighbor Balmoral Resources (BAR, TSX) has gained 2 cents to 23 cents…Calibre Mining (CXB, TSX) is 3 cents higher at 88 cents…on the non-resource front, Bee Vectoring Technologies (BEE, TSX-V) is still buzzing, up a penny at 45 cents…the Canadian Marijuana Index is holding steady at 256 after another big drop last week…Chemesis International (CSI, CSE) was halted pre-market, with the company announcing delays in completing its year-end audit…recently, Chemesis reported that some of its cannabis licences remain subject to an administrative review (alongside licenses of other companies) being undertaken by the Puerto Rico Department of Health…

5. Saudi Arabia is moving forward with an initial public offering of its huge state Oil producer that could shatter records and give investors the chance to own a piece of the world’s most profitable company…following approval from the country’s regulators, Saudi Aramco yesterday formally announced its intention to float shares on the Tadawul exchange in Riyadh…Aramco executives will now embark on an international roadshow to court investors, and a prospectus outlining the company’s financial details is expected later this month…“The IPO will increase our international visibility as the leading company in the world,” CEO Amin Nasser said at a press conference…he declined to comment on the company’s valuation, which executives said would be determined following consultation with potential investors…Aramco has vast Oil reserves and massive daily output…it also holds a monopoly in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of Crude Oil…the company posted a $68 billion profit for the first 9 months of this year, down 18% over the same period in 2018…profit for the whole of last year was $111 billion

6. As Saudi Arabia prepares for a massive Oil IPO, the affects of Canada’s suppression of its Oil and gas sector (to “save the planet”) continue with Encana announcing it’s moving to the United States, a new drilling forecast for 2020 that is woeful at best, and Friday’s announced pending sale of Pengrowth Energy (PGF, TSX) for less than a piece of leftover Halloween candy…the Calgary-based company was a homegrown success story and was once worth billions of dollars…its share price was more than $13 in 2011…on Friday, privately-held Cona Resources said it would buy Pengrowth in a deal that would value each share as worth a nickel…that’s even lower (75% lower!) than the 20 cents they were worth earlier in the week…the company spent much of this year trying to find a way to survive…still, the proposed sale price is startling…“It’s nice to see them get something done, but a little surprised the offer is considerably less than what the shares were trading [the day before],” said Tom Pavic with Sayer Energy Advisors, a Calgary-based mergers and acquisitions consulting firm…“You don’t normally see public companies get sold at a discount to its trading price, but it’s just a sign of the times,” he added…indeed, the times are quite gloomy in the Oil patch, much to the delight of so-called “progressives” and environmentalists across Canada…there are 50,000 fewer people working in Oil and gas than there were 5 years ago, before the price crash, according to CIBC…Pete Sametz, President and CEO of Pengrowth, stated, “Despite the discount this transaction represents to Pengrowth’s recent trading price, we strongly recommend our stakeholders support the arrangement agreement as it represents the most attractive alternative for all stakeholders given the current environment where there is essentially no access to capital for the company or participants in the Canadian Oil and gas industry in general”…

7. This would certainly be a hot public listing – a privately-held B.C. company has come up with a way to obscure objects to the naked eye, making them virtually invisible…according to Hyperstealth Biotechnology CEO Guy Cramer, his company has applied for patents on material that can obscure an object or person by bending light around them so that only the background is visible…the paper-thin material relies on lenticular lenses and does not need a power source…the material has what the company calls “broadband invisibility”, meaning it can also bend ultraviolet and infrared light and block the thermal spectrum…Cramer says the material could have all sorts of military applications, particularly for special forces who need to enter and leave a location without being detected…“Snipers, quite often, it will take them hours to get into a place because they don’t want their motion giving away their location to the enemy out there,” he said…“So with a system like this, they could actually walk into a location, and it would take them less than a minute, in some cases – something that would take them hours before…and they could hide in the middle of an open field, something that they would have never done before because you always hide around cover.  Well, if no one can see you, they’re not going to shoot at you”…Cramer says there are other applications for his patents, saying his technology also has the potential to “triple solar panel output” in a different configuration, using mirrors and other material…he says the technology can also be used for other applications like autonomous vehicles…Cramer’s creation has garnered international attention…a video published by The London Daily Telegraph has more than 2 million views…“It’s overwhelming,” he said…“I knew it was going to be big; I didn’t expect it to be this big”

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November 3, 2019

Sunday Sizzler Report!

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Gold & Silver Updates

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