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March 28, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold’s inability to follow-through after hitting a new all-time high last Thursday of nearly $1,450 is generating more profit-taking this morning…as of 8:40 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $12 an ounce at $1,418…it has recovered somewhat after dropping as low as $1,410…Silver is also off its lows of the day but still down 34 cents at $36.98…the U.S. Dollar Index is weak, too, off one-quarter of a point to 76.09…a slew of economic data is coming out of the U.S. this week including a much anticipated jobs report Friday…some positive news was released this morning on a couple of fronts…pending home sales unexpectedly gained 2.1% in February, according to the National Association of Realtors…economists had expected the index, which leads existing home sales by a month or two, to fall 1% after a previously reported 2.8% decline…and U.S. consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in February for the eighth straight month of gains as households tapped their savings, according to government data, while inflation accelerated at its fastest pace since June, 2009…the Commerce Department said spending rose 0.7 percent after an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain in January…the CDNX is tipping its hand, falling below important support at 2300…it’s currently off 23 points at 2291…we continue to be very cautious regarding the Venture Exchange at the moment given the trading action this month and the drop-off in volume during the rally that took the Index from an intra-day low of 2054 March 15 to an intra-day high of 2328 March 24…Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) is off half a penny at 45.5 cents…GBB posted its first weekly gain last week for the first time since early February, climbing a nickel to 46 cents…while the 10-day SMA has reversed to the upside, a positive development, the 200-day SMA is now trending downward for the first time in a year-and-a-half and that’s a troubling issue…the LONG Bars Zone is as promising as ever, though, so any additional weakness in GBB could present some outstanding opportunities for patient investors…Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V) is sitting on working capital of 17.5 cents per share according to its year-end financials which were released last Thursday…this includes $5.1 million in cash and $2.6 million in marketable securities including over 1 million shares in Evrim Resources (EVM, TSX-V), formerly Avaranta, which began trading on the Venture Exchange January 25…Evrim looks interesting and we suggest investors perform some due diligence on it…Greencastle is currently off a penny at 21 cents, giving it a market cap ($9.5 million) less than $2 million above its working capital…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) continues to be one of the most exciting opportunities we see along the Cadillac Trend…investors need to watch VGD carefully as its game plan is an aggressive one and it’s armed with nearly $9 million in cash…the company is focused on the Rouyn-Noranda region and is currently drilling its Silidor Property with a second drill program expected to start by the end of this week near Vantex Resources‘ (VAX, TSX-V) Moriss Zone Discovery at the Galloway Project…what impresses us the most about VGD is that it has assembled a very strong team of business, geological and marketing personnel who understand what it takes to build shareholder value…VGD is currently unchanged at 39 cents…Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) continues to perform very well in this market…it’s up 6 cents this morning at 70 cents on healthy volume of 270,000 shares…Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V) is also holding up well and any weakness should be viewed as a buying opportunity given its very significant and growing deposit at Blackwater…RVC is 7 cents higher at $6.55…GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) hit resistance Friday at 40 cents and has pulled back to 36 cents this morning…GQC continues to be one of our favorites, however, given the geological potential of its properties in the Dominican Republic…Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) is off half a penny at 32.5 cents…it has been a difficult first quarter for Seafield – the stock is down 45% so far this year – but we’re confident that more drill results from Dos Quebradas will reveal the very strong upside potential of that property…Seafield has rock-solid technical support at its rising 300-day SMA at 28 cents…Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V) is off half a penny at 19 cents where it has some technical support…the announcement Friday of a financing on a best-efforts basis “in the context of the market” to raise between $3.5 million and $5.5 million has created some uncertainty which markets simply don’t like…

14 Comments

  1. GPR’s Executive Chairman has sold all of his shares in GPR!? There has been a lot of active insider selling in GPR maybe it will drop to $2.50 if there is a major correction?

    Comment by Andrew — March 28, 2011 @ 9:54 am

  2. Perhaps GPR’s executive chairman participated int the recent PP to close April 12th?! Balancing our his portfolio.

    Comment by andrea — March 28, 2011 @ 10:59 am

  3. Thanks Andrea, that’s plausible but I don’t think his sell price would have averaged out less than the pp price ($4.20). If not there wouldn’t have been any advantage would there? Thanks 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 28, 2011 @ 12:05 pm

  4. Andrew, do you know for sure gpr chairman sold ALL his shares or are you asking if he did? I see on can. insider he has been selling but what % of his holdings this is, I do not know.

    Comment by dave — March 29, 2011 @ 2:37 am

  5. Hello Dave, I don’t know for sure but as far as I can tell Kaare Foy exercised his .70 options in February and then started to sell his shares at $3.20 – $4.50 until he was 100% depleted at the end of March. Of course there could be genuine reasons for doing this but when I see heavy Insider sells it makes me question it. Maybe Andrea’s theory is correct and he will come out ahead if he participated in the PP? The other insider sells seems to be mostly just turning over .45, .70 & .90 options that makes good sense.

    Comment by Andrew — March 29, 2011 @ 4:49 am

  6. ABI Insider selling was higher than the 545,000 that I mentioned last Friday. Consolidated/JDM have now filed that they sold 855,000 shares, maybe some of these (300,000) were on Friday? I wish someone would reassure me that insider dumping like this is not negative for a stock. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 29, 2011 @ 5:22 am

  7. Andrew, Mineralfields is notorious for doing financings and then selling into the market……..that’s how they conduct their business, so any company that gets into a financing with Minefields needs to understand that. Their selling, in my view, in no way reflects on the potential of ABI. What needs to happen here is that they need to be taken out, and eventually they will. Perhaps a cross can be arranged at some point down the road. I wouldn’t refer to it as “insider dumping”. They are listed as an “insider” because of their share percentage position.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 29, 2011 @ 6:06 am

  8. andrew, I don’t touch any stock that mineralfields does a financing on. They absolutely ruined DEC, MTB, and they will ruin LMG

    Comment by david — March 29, 2011 @ 7:16 am

  9. Thanks for your comments Jon and David. I realise that Mineralfields and their various aliases are not the “insider” of choice and I usually steer clear of any stock that they have holdings in. On the occasions that I have held a stock I found that the only way to play it was to trade frequently – buy and hold strategy, unless your lucky (such as KS today) can be very long term.
    I’m sure ABI has great potential and Mineralfields may reduce their insider status, and today the weakness in ABI’s share price is looking attractive.

    Comment by Andrew — March 29, 2011 @ 7:31 am

  10. and dont forget about efg,,,first gold exploration,,,,held that for a long time and watched nothing but great drilling results over and over and over and everytime it started to gain steam joe was dumping into the ask,,,completely ruined it,,,,

    Comment by heath — March 29, 2011 @ 7:32 am

  11. into the bid…sorry

    Comment by heath — March 29, 2011 @ 7:35 am

  12. Jon
    Any thoughts on GCU NR today?
    thx greg

    Comment by GREG — March 29, 2011 @ 7:41 am

  13. The numbers keep getting more interesting from this play and it’s shaping up to be a very significant deposit that I’m sure is going to attract a lot more attention, no matter what the market does…I’m liking this more and more, especially after this morning’s news release (for the record I also took a personal position in GCU for the first time today)…wide intersections of nice grade, and it’s going to depth…they still have a lot of ground yet to drill…go to their web site where you can learn more about the geology of this property…quite fascinating…alkaline intrusive deposits can be exceptionally large…this does have a lot of upside…three rigs on the property and the deep drilling starts early next month…lots of speculation possibilities…Inwentash keeps buying the heck out of this thing…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 29, 2011 @ 10:59 am

  14. It’s looking very attractive…while the financing has brought some short-term weakness to the play, it has opened up an opportunity to accumulate at a lower price….I think Hinse is up to something with this financing…as the old saying goes, buy on weakness…this one is going to rock IMHO before the year is out, and probably sooner than later….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 29, 2011 @ 11:04 am

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