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November 21, 2014

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,186 and $1,209 so far today…as of 7:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $9 an ounce at $1,204…Silver has added 23 cents to $16.48…Copper is up 3 pennies to $3.07…Crude Oil has gained 73 cents to $76.58 while the U.S. Dollar Index has surged half a point to 88.14

The surprise move by China’s central bank overnight – to cut interest rates – is bullish for the commodity sector and precious metals which are finishing the week on another strong note…as John’s charts have consistently shown this month, Gold could surprise many investors to the upside going into year-end with a move that could take it considerably higher toward the top of a flag formation – shorts ought to be very concerned at the moment, especially if there’s a confirmed breakout near-term on a closing basis above $1,200…that’s the first key resistance…

Ukraine cut its Gold holdings by 14 metric tons in October, according to the International Monetary Fund, MKS (Switzerland) says. “This selling would have gone through most likely during Gold’s descent from $1,180-$1,130, no doubt intensifying the drop, in order to fund gas bills or IMF quarterly payments,” they say.  Commerzbank says the Ukrainian sale amounts to about 35% of its Gold reserves, corresponding to a $3.8 billion decline in its overall currency reserves. “Evidently, the central bank drew on its reserves to subsidize among other things the state energy company Naftogaz, to finance natural gas imports from the EU and to shore up its domestic currency,” Commerzbank stated.  No doubt, Putin may have been on the other side of the Ukraine “dump” as Russia continues to bolster its Gold reserves…

Interesting…AP has just reported that the Dutch Central Bank says it has recently shipped 122.5 tons of Gold worth around 4 billion euros ($5 billion) from safekeeping in New York back to its headquarters in Amsterdam…in a statement this morning, the bank said that its 612.5-ton national Gold reserve is now divided 31% in Amsterdam, 31% in New York, 20% in Canada (Ottawa) and 18% in London…

Today’s Equity Markets

Asia

China cut interest rates unexpectedly today, stepping up a campaign to prop up growth in the world’s second-largest economy as it heads toward its slowest growth in nearly a quarter century…the cut – the first such move in over 2 years – came as factory growth has stalled and the property market, long a pillar of growth, has remained weak, dragging on broader activity and curbing demand for everything from furniture to cement and steel…

China’s Shanghai Composite surged 34 points to close the week at 2487…Japan’s Nikkei average climbed 57 points as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved parliament’s lower house, setting the stage for an election in which he will seek a fresh mandate to continue “Abenomics”…

Europe

European markets are up sharply in late trading overseas…

North America

The Dow has soared 156 points through the first 30 minutes of trading…the TSX, set to confirm a breakout above 15000, has jumped 97 points while the Venture has added 6 points to 790

Gold Updated Chart

Much more on Gold in our upcoming Week in Review and a Look Ahead…this 6-month daily chart shows impressive increasing accumulation since early November…a bullish +DI crossover is also now occurring, and RSI(14) is on a sustainable upward trajectory…a confirmed breakout above $1,200 appears very possible by next week…

There are 3 Fib. resistance levels on the way to $1,300 – $1,216, $1,240 and $1,264

GOLD1(1)

Updated Venture Chart

The Venture’s short-term daily chart shows the Index is now finally trading above both its 10 and 20-day moving averages (SMA’s)….meanwhile, this 3-year weekly chart demonstrates that a recovery phase is indeed under way as the Venture emerges out of extreme oversold conditions that prevailed in October…quite simply, the time to be bullish is at bearish extremes; the time to be bearish is at bullish extremes…

CDNX1(1)

Columbus Gold Corp. (CGT, TSX-V) Update

Technically and fundamentally, one of the best-positioned Venture Gold plays with increasing momentum is Columbus Gold Corp. (CGT, TSX-V) which this week has broken out above a downtrend line in place since shortly after its March high of 63 cents…

There’s a reason the fastest-growing Gold company in the world (London-listed Nordgold which came out with strong quarterly earnings again yesterday) bought 9% of Columbus in open market purchases between the fall of 2013 and the summer of this year…Nordgold of course is currently carrying out a $30 million exploration and development program pursuant to which they can earn a 50.01% interest in CGT’s Montagne d’Or Gold deposit in French Guiana by completing a bankable feasibility study by no later than March, 2017…the deposit is presently defined over 2,500 m x 400 m and to an average depth of 250 m from surface, so an open-pit operation is being targeted here…more assay results are pending and an updated resource estimate is expected very early in the New Year…

Importantly, during the earn-in period Columbus is the operator and also benefits from a 10% management fee on certain expenditures…how smart is that?…

What Columbus also has going for its is a Gold discovery in Nevada – the Eastside Project – where a major drill program is set to commence in January…

After a breakout above both the downtrend line and Fib. resistance at 45 cents this week (new support), the next two Fib. resistance levels are 63 cents and 93 cents…so potential major upside exists here, near-term and longer-term, for a company led by a strong management team featuring CEO and Chairman Robert Giustra, cousin of the legendary Frank Giustra…as always, perform your own due diligence…

Below is a 2+ year weekly chart…yesterday’s drop of 3 cents to 48 cents came on a very low volume day (46,000 shares)…with the technicals and fundamentals in bullish alignment, the potential for a powerful advance here is high…

CGT3(1)

Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) Update

One of the best buys in the Gold sector in recent months has been Richmont Mines (RIC, TSX) which has been driven higher by old-fashioned basics – earnings momentum – and a 1 million ounce high-grade resource identified beneath existing workings at the company’s Island Gold Mine in Ontario…

Richmont is up 25% this week alone after a breakout above resistance at $3 as you can see see on this 4-year weekly chart…this is a company with a very bright future, even in a volatile Gold price environment…

RIC has added another 4 pennies to $3.75 as of 7:00 am Pacific

RIC2

Klondex Mines (KDX, TSX)

Another high-grade scenario we like at the moment is Klondex Mines (KDX, TSX) which is trading at key levels right now as it attempts a breakout above the 50-day SMA and Fib. resistance in the high $1.80’s…watch closely as KDX appeared to bottom at $1.68 early this month…

KDX is up a penny at $1.88 as of 7:00 am Pacific

KDX1

Note:  Jon holds a share position in CGT.

5 Comments

  1. I agree with your point about ‘quite simply, the time to be bullish is at bearish extremes; the time to be bearish is at bullish extremes…’ however, everytime we have had a chance to be bullish, it gets bearish on the index! so, it’s true but it’s been almost 4 years of this?! HOwever, good day out there today! 8 pts up on Venture!

    Comment by STEVEN1 — November 21, 2014 @ 7:27 am

  2. IIROC Trade Halt – Huldra Silver Inc.

    07:56 EST Friday, November 21, 2014

    Would anyone like to speculate …

    Comment by Paul — November 21, 2014 @ 8:53 am

  3. Sounds like DBV might start drilling very soon…let’s hope the winter drill program keeps producing more results.

    Comment by Kevin Mc — November 21, 2014 @ 9:04 am

  4. Kevin, that’s what I am hearing as well. The DBV team has been on the property since late October… I wonder if they started drilling then. If I remember correctly they still had some money left in the till.

    Comment by chris — November 21, 2014 @ 10:09 am

  5. Trade Halt CCK , Canada Coal …The stock was mentioned here in the past …News of a proposed amalgamation into a Solar Panel company in the US …Looks to give present holders of CCK about a 100% premium when trading with the new company shares

    Comment by Frank — November 21, 2014 @ 11:14 am

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