Gold has traded between $1,224 and $1,237 so far today as it prepares to post its best monthly performance in 4 years…as of 10:00 am Pacific, bullion is up $11 an ounce at $1,233…Silver has added 14 cents to $14.81…Copper is flat at $2.14…Copper stocks in the LME’s warehouses dipped below the 200,000 ton mark for the first time in over a year late last week, pointing to solid demand for the metal according to Commerzbank…Crude Oil is 98 cents higher at $33.76 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-tenth of a point at 98.27…
SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.27% to 762.41 tonnes on Friday, the highest in about a year…Gold funds accumulated their largest inflows since 2009 while equity funds posted their longest run of outflows since 2008 last week, according to Bank of America Merill Lynch…
Hedge funds and money managers raised their bullish stances in COMEX Gold to a 1-year high in the week ending February 23, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday…they also increased their Silver net long stance to a 4-month high, though Silver has retraced sharply the last couple of weeks (updated charts in today’s Morning Musings)…
Citi’s strategy team has reiterated its positive view on Gold as an asset class…hoped-for coordinated policy stimulus is likely to be disappointing, the bank says, “thus we retain a bullish bias on defensive rates markets and Gold (upgraded) versus risk assets.”
Citi offers some caution, though, saying Gold has been supported by a weaker greenback but the dollar trend can be a “fickle friend”…the bank added, “Gold has also sniffed, through poor equity market trends, heightened risk in terms of global financial systemic risk. Such market fear can also be a fickle friend that one or two positive economic releases can turn around.”
Gold will be impacted either positively or negatively by a slew of U.S. economic reports due this week, highlighted by Friday’s February jobs numbers…
India Unveils New Tax Measures On Gold
Disappointing news out of India this morning…the government has reintroduced a local sales tax on Gold jewellery after a gap of 4 years, on top of an already record import duty, as officials attempt to further dampen official demand for the precious metal in the world’s 2nd biggest consumer…Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, presenting his 3rd budget today, announced an excise duty of 1% on Gold and diamond jewellery…a report from his ministry on Friday said Gold was under-taxed in the country, where the richest 20% account for roughly 80% of Gold purchases (what government ministry in today’s over-regulated world won’t think that something is under-taxed?)…
Jewellery sales in India fell in the last 2 months due to the price rally and as consumers delayed purchases in hopes for a cut in the import duty…this forced importers to offer steep discounts over global prices to clear inventory…but India’s Finance Minister surprised the market by not only maintaining that duty but introducing additional tax measures as well…expect a further pick-up in the country’s illegal Gold trade…
Oil Update
Crude Oil is coming off its best week since August 2015 despite some negative words last Tuesday from OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri at a speech in Houston…today, the Saudi cabinet issued the following statement: “The kingdom (of Saudi Arabia) seeks to achieve stability in the Oil markets and will always remain in contact with all main producers in an attempt to limit volatility and it welcomes any cooperative action.”
A Reuters poll today has boosted market sentiment, indicating that OPEC pumped less crude this month than in January…
Saudi Arabia and several fellow OPEC members agreed with non-OPEC Russia this month on a tentative deal to freeze output at January levels in an attempt to prop up prices…meanwhile, the U.S. Oil-rig count fell by 13 to 400 in the latest week, according to Baker Hughes, maintaining a recent clip of sharp declines…the number of rigs drilling for Oil in the U.S. has plunged 75% since October 2014…it’s tough to slow a ship as large as U.S. shale, however…U.S. Crude Oil production is expected to fall just 1.1% this year and grow 1.7% in 2017, according to an analysis by Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. of 53 producers….
Watch Iraq
A key country to watch for potential supply disruptions in coming months is Iraq…in January, the country exported an average of 3.88 million barrels a day, including exports from Iraqi Kurdistan…this is 660,000 barrels a day more than it was exporting before the advance of ISIS across parts of the country in the summer of 2014, which saw the terrorist group secure around a third of Iraq’s territory…keep in mind that more than three-quarters of Iraq’s Oil is produced and exported from Basra and neighboring provinces in the south which lie more than 500 km from the fighting with ISIS…however, over the past year, due to Iraq’s budget crisis, almost nothing has been done to improve power and water infrastructure around Basra – this has led to growing protests and grievances amid new problems such as job losses and delayed salary payments…Iraqi officials are expecting this summer to be the most disruptive season of protests on record, and some fear it could potentially affect the region’s Oil exports…
In today’s Morning Musings…
1. A fresh CRB chart paints an interesting picture for commodities…
2. Updates on 9 Venture plays and 1 CSE stock…
3. What to make of Silver’s action the last 2 weeks?…
Plus more…to view the rest of today’s Morning Musings, login with your username and password, or click here to gain full access to this and other exclusive BMR content and features…
The venture exchange is still climbing and now at 541. Beginning to look like the Easter bunny.
Comment by Lester — February 29, 2016 @ 12:13 pm
GGI and DBV are still bleeding. I can only pray things change as of the PDAC.
Comment by ConcernedCitizen — February 29, 2016 @ 12:15 pm
GGI – countdown to sell my stock is on… This has been a terrible disaster in terms of what I had lost and missed opportunities. I am frustrated and disappointed.
Comment by George — February 29, 2016 @ 12:29 pm
As Venezuela sells it’s gold to pay it’s debts and India moves towards placing a tax on gold , world governments are turning towards gold , not to buy it but to tax it . This is the same pattern as what occurred in the last two depressions (1869 -1892 ) and (1929 – 1942 ) .
China is expected to shed 1.8 million jobs in the coal and steel industry as the world economy continues to slow.
Comment by Lester — February 29, 2016 @ 12:33 pm
Jan and Feb were supposed to be exciting months for both Dbv and Ggi and here we are starting March and nothing. Hopefully this is our month.
Comment by Sameer — February 29, 2016 @ 12:46 pm
CC, you mentioned PDAC, but I don’t see DBV or GGI on the list, do you?
Comment by Sameer — February 29, 2016 @ 12:47 pm
Lester – very interesting. I am hearing a turn down in the economy and many jobs lost this year, and another housing crash here this year. I just sold my house Dec. 15 and already I see the values coming down in that subdivision.
Comment by dave — February 29, 2016 @ 1:34 pm
Sameer no but there were rumors Farshad was waiting for PDAC to release news.
Comment by ConcernedCitizen — February 29, 2016 @ 1:34 pm
Sameer – Oct, Nov, Dec were also supposed to be exciting months for GGI. Just enough to fill a PP.
Comment by George — February 29, 2016 @ 2:09 pm
Venezuela – there is open talk of how to replace Maduro. SO cashing out the gold now is likely his way, to try and buy some army support to and hang around a little longer while the low price of oil continues to dig him a deeper hole
Comment by david — February 29, 2016 @ 3:06 pm
Dave – you silly rabbit… thats because you left!!!!:)
Comment by Jeremy — February 29, 2016 @ 3:31 pm
Sameer , the best thing Farshad could do is get the drills into operation. Nobody , even those at PDAC won’t want to hear another story that DBV will be going to the site and drilling soon. It’s time for action , it’s astonishing that the share price has held up at this price.
Comment by Lester — February 29, 2016 @ 3:58 pm
That’s one thing politicians all have in common , they will go to any length to stay in power even at the expense of their own county’s well being.
Comment by Lester — February 29, 2016 @ 4:01 pm
Dave , at this point in time it is important to hold no or little debt , however one still needs da place to live . Owing ones home and being debt free is key to surviving during these troubling times.
Comment by Lester — February 29, 2016 @ 4:04 pm
CC , don’t you think it’s high time for DBV to get mobile ? It’s been months with the same old story ” drilling soon ” . Going to PDAC with the same old story will be just a waist of time. JMO
Comment by Lester — February 29, 2016 @ 4:12 pm
You can never exactly time venture stocks. If the reasons your holding a stock have changed….sell it. If not, hold it and wait it out. I haven’t sold one share of GGI. Do I wish it was higher….of course. It will have its day. Jon doesn’t have a crystal ball…what he says is only educated based on his experience. You take the information for given and make your own decision.
Comment by weatheritout — February 29, 2016 @ 5:39 pm
Lester I don’t disagree but they hired an archaeologist to delineate areas that may be important to the Tahltan, I’d hope that and Farshad pouring water in the wine and reaching out to Chad Day could get DBV somewhere. Since that whole court mess was one big fiasco.
That and H23-24-25 results, then announcement of drilling. Not the other way around.
Comment by ConcernedCitizen — March 1, 2016 @ 3:50 am
Weatheritout – I wish I could sell all my GGI shares. If you want you can have my shares. Terrible investment thus far.
Comment by George — March 1, 2016 @ 5:30 am
I wish and sold GGI and bought TBE like I had been telling myself to do……!!!!!!!!!!!!
Comment by George — March 1, 2016 @ 6:35 am
Lester – You think I don’t know that, but I have one better. Not owning a home and being debt free. There are many places to live. Hey, check this out for quality living:
bayview.com.ec
60k to 80k for 1 bedroom depending on floor your on.
Comment by dave — March 1, 2016 @ 6:59 am
Nice results from PGM this morning (first 4 holes)…including 7 m @ 16 g/t Au from 153-160 m in hole 58, and another deeper intercept of 7 m grading 9.9 g/t Au between 215 and 222 m…high-grade intersected in all 4 holes…looks like a breakout above 24 cents…
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 1, 2016 @ 7:05 am
PE gearing up for its expected breakout…
Comment by Jon - BMR — March 1, 2016 @ 7:16 am
yup – PE tearing it up
Comment by dave — March 1, 2016 @ 7:38 am
PE – Fun to watch, nice volume also. It would be nice to accumulation at .75 – .80 and then onward and upward.
Comment by Vepper — March 1, 2016 @ 7:58 am
DBV selling this morning has taken us to our new 52 week low…no news from the company, no support from the Courts or help from the BC Government…this is the least confident I’ve ever been with DBV since I invested with them over 3 years ago.
Comment by ChetBaker — March 1, 2016 @ 7:59 am
Dave – did you pick some PE up on Friday at .59 ?
Comment by Vepper — March 1, 2016 @ 8:00 am
NNN – a new stock, first day of trading, that Kyler + Zimtu have their finger in . Ni Cu in ThunderBay area with a stellar cast already on the bd and managing the finances.
Comment by david — March 1, 2016 @ 8:47 am
ChetBaker , it has become truly frustrating and the pain many shareholders are feeling is mounting with some throwing in the towel.
I’m continuing to hold even though the silence is deafening , I have faith in Farshad Shirvani and know he is working his butt off and will eventually deliver on the financing , lab results , drilling and the court proceedings. If I had available funds I would be a buyer as the activity going on behind the scene is continuing .
Comment by Lester — March 1, 2016 @ 9:53 am
Dbv – Someone is selling a lot of shares into the bid. Les, have u talked to farshad? I emailed him last week but no response.
Comment by Sameer — March 1, 2016 @ 10:29 am
Hey Lester, thanks for the message – are you in touch with Farshad? I haven’t had much luck getting returned messages from him. I realize he’s got a lot to lose with the share price slowly dropping – and you are right – the silence is certainly deafening. I guess I’m still hoping for some positive news (finally) to come out, perhaps over PDAC as some have intimated; but as I previously said, I don’t have a great feeling about DBV at the moment.
Comment by ChetBaker — March 1, 2016 @ 10:42 am
DBV now trading at .065 cents….yikes.
Comment by ChetBaker — March 1, 2016 @ 10:44 am
GGI – that offer at .125 for 175k from TD still smells to me like a lid since the biggest vaccuumer of shrs appear to be TD accounts over the past 2 weeks (bot635K , sold 387K) time will tell and a NR with a drill date could clean it out!
Comment by david — March 1, 2016 @ 11:08 am
PE – Do we have an updated chart on this stock or will that be tomorrow?
Comment by George — March 1, 2016 @ 12:00 pm