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December 28, 2016

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,136 and $1,145 so far today…as of 9:15 am Pacific, bullion is up slightly at $1,139…Silver is 3 cents higher at $15.98…Copper is up 2 pennies at $2.50…Nickel has declined a dime to $4.59…Crude Oil is 29 cents higher at $54.19 while the U.S. Dollar Index has surged half a point to 103.48

The greenback enters 2017 on a bullish trajectory with the Fed predicting 3 more interest rate hikes…next Dollar Index resistance is 104…yesterday, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index climbed to 113.7 in December – its highest level in more than 15 years…it jumped from 109.4 in November as Americans see more strength ahead in business conditions, stock prices and the job market following the election of Donald Trump in November…

Pre-holiday trading couldn’t improve the negative sentiment in the Gold market as hedge funds continued to liquidate their bullish positions and add new short bets (contrarians, though, will look at that as an encouraging sign)…for the 6th consecutive week money managers reduced their net bullish exposure in Gold and, according to some analysts, this trend may have further to go ahead of the New Year…Gold’s net length declined almost 22% from the previous week…

Canada’s Growth Capped At 2%?

This comes as no surprise given current government policy choices provincially and federally across Canada (Saskatchewan and B.C. remain outliers) – a new report says the country’s economic growth is set to flatline at 2% or less per year over the next decade and a half, leading Canada to lose ground in the ranking of the world’s largest economies…the forecasts, compiled by the U.K.-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), predict Canadian GDP growth of 1.8% from 2016 to 2020, followed by a decade of 2% growth from 2021 to 2030…Canada will be weighed down by its public sector deficit, which has increased this year, and its gross debt as a percentage of GDP, which stands at 92%…low interest rates and a currency devalued against the U.S. dollar will work in Canada’s favor…CEBR’s World Economic League Table for 2017 estimates Canada is currently the 10th largest economy in the world, but that it will fall back 2 spots to #12 by 2030

New Optimism For B.C. LNG Project

Bloomberg reported this morning that Malaysia’s Petronas is seeking to move ahead with a proposed $27 billion (U.S.) liquefied Natural gas plant in B.C. after identifying a new site for shipping the fuel, a shift that may help reduce costs and quell local opposition…the new design would eliminate the need for a costly suspension bridge that was part of the original plan and would also circumvent an environmentally sensitive marine area that’s been a flash point of controversy…Petronas and its partners are expected to decide whether or not to proceed with the project by early next year…the facility would produce as much as 19.2 million metric tonnes a year of LNG and open up a new trade route for Canadian gas to be shipped to Asia…the project won Canadian government approval in September after more than 3 years of regulatory review…during that time, the global LNG market tanked with spot prices for the fuel falling by more than two-thirds amid a supply glut…

Oil Update

Starting January, most members of OPEC and 11 other non-cartel producers are expected to scale back their production as part of recent agreements…the reduction goal of roughly 1.8 million barrels a day is expected to be carried out in phases and the market will be watching closely…

At this point, most industry observers are optimistic that participating nations will comply with the production quotas, at least in the first few months…the key will be if the compliance holds up after a period of higher prices, especially if Oil were to top $60 a barrel as our charts suggest it will…

Meanwhile, the number of U.S. rigs drilling for Oil climbed by 13 to 523 in the week ended December 23, marking the 8th straight week of growth and the most since December 2015….however, the U.S. is not expected to be able to significantly ramp up supply until 2018…production averaged 8.79 million barrels a day in the week ended December 16, up from 8.43 million bpd in late July…the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects U.S. production to reach 9 million bpd by this time next year…

In Today’s Morning Musings

1. CRB Index – Q1 breakout?…

2. Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) Update – new dynamics with KSP-Green Springs combo…

3. Emerging Uranium play…

4. Daniel’s Den…a different look into an undervalued Oil play for patient investors…

Plus more…click here to read the rest of today’s Morning Musings and all BMR exclusive content, through a risk-free Pro, Gold or Basic package, or login with your username and password…

7 Comments

  1. LIX moving ‘up’ by 33 cents today! Good start!

    Comment by STEVEN1 — December 28, 2016 @ 10:53 am

  2. Bids were really building on CEM late in the day, a good sign.

    Jon, I believe the last day for tax loss selling for Americans is December 30th as I think they use trade date instead of settlement date (feel free to correct me if I am wrong). Do you think that has much effect this week as tax loss selling is now done for Canadians.

    Comment by Danny — December 28, 2016 @ 1:44 pm

  3. CEM looks really promising as we’ve outlined, Danny—-just look at that asset in Alaska and the partner they have for that project. One of the best located VMS/Zinc projects in terms of getting concentrate to a hungry Asian market. We’ll have a CEM chart update tomorrow…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 28, 2016 @ 6:35 pm

  4. Glh has their processor and wholesaler license approved in Oregon. Expect to see news on this shortly
    https://www.oregon.gov/olcc/marijuana/Documents/MarijuanaLicenses_approved.pdf

    Comment by Matt — December 28, 2016 @ 7:23 pm

  5. LIC halted pre-market, pending news…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 29, 2016 @ 5:09 am

  6. LIC – Apparently the trading halt was an error

    Comment by Dan1 — December 29, 2016 @ 7:11 am

  7. Yes, an usual TSX mistake…I’m sure LIC didn’t mind the free publicity…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — December 29, 2016 @ 7:13 am

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