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March 29, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold, trying to reverse a three-day slide, has traded between $1,410 and $1,425 so far today…as of 9:35 am Pacific, the yellow metal is off $4 an ounce at $1,417…Silver is down 15 cents at $37.01 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 76.30…U.S. consumer confidence fell in March after hitting a three-year high in the prior month as expectations about jobs and income growth worsened, according to a private sector report released today…the Conference Board, an industry group, said its index of consumer attitudes fell to 63.4 in March from a revised 72.0 in February…the median of forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters was for a reading of 65.0…forecasts ranged from 55.0 to 72.0…the “expectations” index slipped to 81.1 from 97.5, while consumers’ expectations for inflation in the coming 12 months hit its highest level since October, 2008…a slew of U.S. economic data is coming out this week with the all-important jobs report slated for Friday…hopefully that number won’t be an April Fool’s surprise…a total of 13% of all U.S. homes at the moment are vacant which underscores the depth of the housing problem…home prices in the U.S. continue to fall, particularly in areas of high unemployment, negative equity is rising, foreclosure inventory is surging and consumer confidence in housing is non-existent…the turnaround may not come for years and this is certainly something the Fed is watching closely as it weighs its monetary options…the CDNX is off a point at 2281…the problem with the CDNX right now appears to be “buyers’ exhaustion” after such a powerful and sustained advance from last summer…global risks have also heightened over the past couple of months and this is not helping matters for the world’s most speculative market…how this “fixes itself” we’re not entirely sure but sometimes it’s through a nasty correction that ends with sellers capitulating…hence, our stance recently with regard to the CDNX has been quite cautious…we’re waiting for that “all clear” buy signal and it just hasn’t come yet…patience is a virtue and sometimes it’s necessary to avoid the temptation of throwing cash into the market…having said that, things can change quickly and we’re always on the lookout for opportunities…one thing is certain as far as we’re concerned – the long-term CDNX bull market remains completely intact…long-term investors can rest easy in our view…a couple of weeks ago we mentioned Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) when it was sitting around $2.70…the company has been getting some very impressive drill results from its Springpole Gold Project 110 kilometres northeast of the Red Lake mining camp…more results were released this morning and included 150 metres grading 2.56 g/t Au in a vertical infill hole that was testing the southeast portion of the Portage Zone…all six holes reported today bottomed in mineralization and deeper drilling (up to 700 vertical metres below surface) will commence early next month…Springpole is an alkaline intrusion hosting a Gold system that represents a potentially new style of Canadian Archean Shield Gold deposit…the potential for something quite substantial clearly exists…Pinetree’s Sheldon Inwentash is no dummy and he keeps aggressively buying GCUGrand Canyon opened at $3.35 this morning, pulled back to $3.15, and is now trading up 19 cents at $3.32 on nearly 1.3 million shares…Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V) has arranged a $3.5 million financing on a “best efforts” basis at 18 cents through Industrial Alliance Securities…the financing could go as high as $5.5 million…ABI is currently off 2 pennies at 16.5 cents…for patient investors, ABI offers impressive upside potential with a growing Gold deposit at Elder-Tagami and one of Canada’s best Silver assets at Abcourt-Barvue where considerable new resources could still be uncovered through aggressive exploration…Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) is a company we’re watching very closely that we’re expecting big things from starting in the second quarter of this year…VGD is in a strong cash position (nearly $9 million) and is one of the few companies we have come across that is blessed with what we call a “triple dynamic” – it is loaded with business, geological and marketing expertise as we discovered during our latest trip to Rouyn-Noranda…this is a company focused on building shareholder value by becoming one of northwestern Quebec’s exploration leaders…we’re completing all of our own due diligence on VGD and we will be reporting extensively on this situation in the weeks ahead…technically, the stock has found tremendous support in the mid-30’s and the declining 50-day SMA has flattened out and potentially could reverse to the upside as early as next week…VGD is currently half a penny lower at 38 cents…Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V) is off half a penny at 14 cents…CUI is down substantially in the first quarter of this year but the company is now preparing to launch a major new exploration program in northwest Tanzania, likely beginning with its Sekenke Project which surrounds two former high grade mines…the rainy season in that part of Tanzania has not been as bad as usual which is good news as Currie Rose may be able to start exploration quicker than expected…a Phase 1, 5,000 metre drill program at Sekenke will begin during the second quarter…from a technical standpoint, Currie Rose is very close to its 300-day rising moving average at nearly 13 cents which provides excellent support…Greencastle Resources (VGN, TSX-V) is unchanged at 22 cents…the company came out yesterday with its first news release since November 30…Greencastle actually had net income of $627,000 in fiscal 2010 and net assets increased 22% to $9.7 million…working capital as of December 31 was nearly $8 million or 17.5 cents per share…President and CEO Tony Roodenburg stated, “The challenge now is to unlock value in our Gold exploration assets, and we hope to announce some initiatives in this area in the second quarter…Richfield Ventures‘ (RVC, TSX-V) Blackwater project is shaping up to be a significant discovery, and we are looking forward to getting groundwork started on our Nechako property nearby”…Greencastle is currently unchanged at 22 cents and we expect a better second quarter for this company as well…one of the volume traders on the CDNX this morning is Crown Gold Corporation (CWM, TSX-V) which has announced it has signed a letter of intent to sell three Nevada properties (Monte Cristo, Sugarloaf and Blue Sphinx) to an arms-length private Canadian company, Argentium Resources, for $16 million in cash and securities ($2.5 million in cash)…CWM’s current market cap is only $11 million with the stock up 2.5 cents this morning at 12.5 cents on volume of 6 million shares…this should give encouragement to Greencastle which has two very good Gold properties of its own in Nevada (Indian Creek and Jewel Ridge)…

13 Comments

  1. Sheldon Inwentash and Pinetree have been accumulating VGD around .40 – also Minerafields but at .80 so this looks promising. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 29, 2011 @ 8:52 am

  2. VGN is a steal, and ABI will soar as silver really takes off – and Its going to take off. JPM cant hold it down for too much longer, the levy is breaking!!

    Comment by herb — March 29, 2011 @ 9:20 am

  3. Hello Herb did you mean VGN or VGD? I guess I don’t fully understand VGN’s valuation and what the company offers to shareholders. Other than the oil royalties, land where nothing is happening and the marketable securities which are likely other companies where Tony Roodenburg is CEO (not necessarily a good thing) where is the value – guess I would not make a good rocket scientist! 🙂 Next time ABI takes off Consolidated/Mineralfields will dump, and put any momentum into check. Occasionally they let a stock ride and investors become encouraged and then they play their game again! They may reduce holdings so that they do not have insider status but by that time investors are usually pretty dismayed and, of course, all of a sudden the liquidity has gone. Silver has really taken off but ABI has not soared.

    Comment by Andrew — March 29, 2011 @ 11:01 am

  4. about abi at Sector News Wire blog (Mar 28, 2011)…

    thanks

    Comment by Marc — March 29, 2011 @ 3:44 pm

  5. Thanks for that report Marc – very interesting and helpful.

    Comment by Andrew — March 29, 2011 @ 4:42 pm

  6. Not sure why GQC is not performing better. It stands to benefit without spending anything from the exciting testing of Dr. Richard Sillitoe’s lithocap theory. His 2006 paper on such hidden deposits was written with (then) GQC geologist. The Piedra Iman claims of GQC provided the basis for much of the paper. Read the whole article on the drilling program on Everton’s CEO Blog…

    CEO Blog

    “I do know that there are very few companies with the amount of blue sky possibilities that this one has.”

    That was a very reassuring and welcome comment from “ctoivo,” one of Everton’s supporters on the Stockhouse bullboard earlier this week.

    I happen to agree wholeheartedly with him, or her, and I’m grateful for that person’s understanding of our activities and our future prospects in the Dominican Republic.

    I know from speaking with friends in our industry that the bullboards are an important barometer for measuring the attitudinal disposition of our investors, supporters and of course, our detractors. I watch and read those comments as do my peers and associates and we appreciate them. They are important to us.

    Everton Resources Inc. and our operating partner Brigus Gold, announced earlier last week that we’ve started our 600-metre deep drilling program on the southern portion of Ampliacion Pueblo Viejo.

    SNIP

    Comment by george wohanka — March 29, 2011 @ 6:45 pm

  7. JON/BMR

    IT IS GOLD CANYON RESOURCES, NOT GRAND CANYON, FYI

    Comment by GREG H — March 29, 2011 @ 7:31 pm

  8. Thanks, Greg, purely a Freudian slip…we’ve been mentioning GCU for a couple of weeks now…at least I have the symbol right, which is good as I was buying shares today…I’m thinking this is very deep and very wide, hence Grand Canyon seems like a much better name…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — March 29, 2011 @ 7:40 pm

  9. Jon
    do you think a company like GCU with all it jas going on right now and more news coming out pretty regularly would drop substancially if we get a big drop in the CDNX”? Like your Grand Canyon name btw.

    thx greg

    Comment by GREG H — March 29, 2011 @ 10:18 pm

  10. Hello George, I think investors have been waiting for results from GQC, they expected them for PDAC and delays always makes investors nervous. I have a holding in GQC and I’m waiting for the response to the next news release and then will decide whether to switch to EVR which I think is more attractive – GQC doesn’t have the cash position even though they say they have sufficient for this year’s drilling programme costs are going up.

    Comment by Andrew — March 30, 2011 @ 5:40 am

  11. Andrew, Barrick has a position in GQC for a reason. When GQC had a capitalization 40% greater than that of EVR I thought a switch made sense. But now I am less sure, having learned about Barrick and the caps having equalized. Everton does have the more aggressive drilling program.

    Am glad that BMR follows GQC and also watches Everton.

    Comment by george wohanka — March 30, 2011 @ 6:55 am

  12. George, thank you for your input on GQC. I’ll watch for weakness in either GQC or EVR, it has been interesting to see EVR trading higher than GQC but I think that’s because of the better IR and news releases.

    Comment by Andrew — March 30, 2011 @ 9:02 am

  13. Guys and gals.. gqc and evr are both valued at around 36 milion… so they are trading at the same level… sp times shares outstanding=valuation:) just an fyi

    Comment by Jeremy — March 30, 2011 @ 10:01 am

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