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June 27, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded in a range of $1,490 to $1,506 so far today…as of 8:25 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $3 an ounce at $1,499…Silver is off 44 cents at $33.88…crude oil is down another 51 cents at $90.65 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-third of a point at 75.37…the market will be paying close attention to events in Greece this week but you know the U.S. is in rough shape when the L.A. Dodgers have to file for bankruptcy protection which they have done in a Delaware court this morning…perhaps the entire state of California is next…the CDNX appears to want to test last week’s low of 1882…it’s currently off 19 points at 1886…as our Saturday article detailed, one cannot rule out the possibility of a drop below 1800 in the CDNX which is what this market may have to do to finally bottom out…having said that, now is definitely the time in our view to be accumulating quality juniors – the CDNX could turnaround very suddenly – as the second half of the year looks a lot more promising after a very normal major correction during the first half…the long-term bull market remains completely intact…Gold has suffered some technical damage and a drop to as low as $1,425 (worst case scenario) can’t be ruled out as John’s chart outlines…however, physical buying in the Gold market, particularly from emerging economies, remains very robust and that has always supported prices when the short-term technical outlook has deteriorated…Gold‘s primary trend remains highly bullish…

From one form of stimulus to another…QE2 ends this week but the White House has come up with its own version of QE3 in the form of lower oil prices…the decision by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to release oil from strategic reserves around the globe was  not about an oil emergency but rather a deliberate attempt to force crude prices lower in order to stimulate economic growth in the United States and elsewhere…more intervention from the IEA and the DOR should be expected…it’s estimated that a drop in oil prices into the $80′s could be worth as much as an extra half point for GDP growth in the United States over the second half of the year…oil is already down 20% from its April 29 peak…since oil is such a major component of the cost structure for producers, lower crude prices are welcome news for them as long as Gold holds up reasonably well which it should…a dark shadow has been cast over mining and exploration in Peru which is the world’s largest Silver producer…due to politically motivated protests from a bunch of backward thinking neanderthals, the Peruvian government has pulled the licence on Bear Creek Mining’s (BCM, TSX-V) Santa Ana mine and halted all new concessions in the Puno province of southeastern Peru for three years…BCU of course is getting hammered this morning, down $1.22 at $3.94 after trading at an all-time high of $12 in early March…the company is now threatening legal action…this only goes to show how critical it is to invest in companies in “safe” jurisdictions, but history has shown that even parts of Canada are sometimes very risky (what the NDP did to mining in British Columbia years ago is a classic example)…it’s not so much commodity prices but fringe groups and government actions that threaten our investments in the mining sector…Bayfield Ventures (BYV, TSX-V) is flying this morning after cutting a major Gold and Silver intercept at its Burns Block Property in the Rainy River district of northwestern Ontario…hole #71 returned 79.50 metres grading 8.66 g/t Au (starting at a downhole depth of 15.5 metres) and included a bonanza zone grading 60.05 g/t Au over 11.20 metres…BYV gapped up to 82 cents and is currently up 24 cents at 83 cents…it has traded as high as $1.00 this morning…technically, the stock faces significant resistance in the 90 cent to $1.00 range but it does have the potential to run…it’ll be interesting to watch how it trades through the rest of today – one test will be to see if it can hold above its opening price…obviously the best time to get in on a stock is prior to when good results come out which is why we’re so excited about Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V) at the moment…the market hasn’t quite picked up yet on the exploration success AGE is enjoying at its Pascalis-Colombiere Gold Property near Val d’Or…a 5,000 metre Phase 2 program is now underway and we’re expecting more stellar results given the location and history of this property and what has been reported already by Adventure Gold…in addition, down the highway, Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM, TSX) is well into a 4,000 metre drill program at the promising Dubuisson Property and some nice numbers could come from there…drills are turning on four of AGE’s properties at the moment…the stock is unchanged this morning on light volume at 54 cents…SilverQuest Resources (SQI, TSX-V) reported results from 22 holes this morning at the Davidson Property, the northern portion of New Gold Inc.’s (NGD, TSX) Blackwater Project that SQI holds a 25% interest in…about 40% of the holes delivered strong results, a decent average, and show a continuity of mineralization to both the northwest and northeast of the resource area…hole #162 was particularly impressive as it cut 318 metres grading 1.39 g/t Au…New Gold is drilling 20,000 metres at Davidson in an effort to expand resources…SQI is up on the news this morning, 3 pennies higher at $1.07…Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) continues to shine…it’s up another 3 cents to 34 cents which puts it exactly at its 200-day moving average (SMA) where it will likely encounter major resistance…the stock is in overbought territory, so there is a risk of a pullback before it’s able to re-energize itself for a push to higher levels…

6 Comments

  1. Hi Jon, hope you and the team at BMR had a nice weekend.I actually managed to get hold of Tony at VGN on Friday, we had a really long talk.I am going to purchase more dhares this week, as I too am NOW FIRMLY aware of what is and about to unfold at VGN. Question for you though, every weekend you state that Pinetree is accumulating more shares, where do you see this info? Secondly, WHY have you now, changed your timeline AGAIN for when you expect VGN to have it’s ” Massive Break out”?? 1st, you said, the 1st quarter, then you changed to the 1st half of the year, NOW you suggest ” sometime this year”?? No offence, but you might be losing some credibilty when you constantly change your song.
    Peace,
    John

    Comment by john — June 27, 2011 @ 8:50 am

  2. It would be illegal for VGN to release information to an individual that is not already publicly available. So, John, what did you learn that you were not already aware of? Obviously not the timeline despite the fact that you state “about to unfold” which would imply in the near future?

    Comment by Andrew — June 27, 2011 @ 10:04 am

  3. If Tony did intentionally or unintentionally relay to John, something not already in the public domain,
    surely it would not be prudent for John, to bring it forward on this board. If indeed you do know something
    Johnny ensure you protect your man Tony.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — June 27, 2011 @ 10:25 am

  4. CDNX is getting smacked around today. I suppose eventually one of your bottom predictions will have to come true.

    Comment by Seamus — June 27, 2011 @ 11:08 am

  5. John, first off, I’ve stated all along patience is required with VGN…….no one knows for sure when this will re-awake, but based on historical patterns there’s a good chance that could occur in the 2nd half of this year……..doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that Roodenburg is probably up to something, especially now that he has more time on his hands…..previous news releases also suggest something is up, sooner or later……….the reference to Pinetree was based on them picking up additional shares last November (they haven’t since then)…….we haven’t changed our view on VGN – at some point it’s going to take off – this is a play for patient investors only………at cash value you can’t lose…..Tony got everyone excited last November/December and then he let the air out of the balloon……that happens in this industry…….be patient and wait for the next run which very well could turn into a massive breakout……..

    Comment by Jon - BMR — June 27, 2011 @ 11:27 am

  6. As i mentioned before, the bottom is somewhere between 1865 & 0. Only joking of course,
    but it appears no one & i mean no one, can predict the bottom with certainty.

    R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — June 28, 2011 @ 6:10 am

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