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September 28, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded in a range between $1,633 and $1,670 so far today…as of 8:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $5 an ounce at $1,645…Silver is 77 cents lower at $31.11…Copper is off 14 cents at $3.31…Crude Oil is 97 cents lower at $83.48 while the U.S. Dollar Index is down nearly one-fifth of a point at 77.60…new orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods slipped in August on weak demand for motor vehicles, government data showed this morning, but a rebound in a gauge of business spending was an encouraging sign…the Commerce Department said durable goods orders dipped 0.1% after an unrevised 4.1% jump in July…economists polled by Reuters had forecast durable goods orders unchanged last month…orders were held back by an 8.5% drop in bookings for motor vehicles – the largest decline since February last year…non-defence capital goods orders, however (excluding aircraft), a closely watched metric for business spending, increased 1.1% last month after a revised 0.2% fall in July…this suggests that businesses, sitting on about $2 trillion in cash, have not responded to the recent financial market volatility by curtailing spending on capital goods, at least through August…economists had expected a 0.3% rise after a previously reported 0.9% decline in July…

The CDNX has given up almost half of yesterday’s gains as it’s currently down 21 points at 1549…it’ll be important to see some follow-through on yesterday’s advance by the end of this week and quarter…if the CDNX is unable to get through a critical resistance band (previous support) between 1600 and 1700 next month, it’s in trouble…what’s worrisome at the moment is that the 300 and 500-day moving averages are in serous danger of reversing to the downside during the fourth quarter and that’s an early warning of more potential significant downside action…this month’s sell-off, on the heels of the one in August, suggest in retrospect that the CDNX bull market actually may have turned into a bear market last March…we’ll have to wait and see but the probability of that has certainly increased…fortunes are born during downturns, however, so now is a critical time to search extensively for the strongest companies with the best prospects…

Yukon plays continue to get hit hard and that’s not a positive sign for the Venture entering the fourth quarter…ATAC Resources (ATC, TSX-V), which has declined 12 out of the last 13 trading sessions, fell as low as $3.78 this morning but has since bounced back and is now up 2 pennies at $4.05… the most obvious support appears to be the rising 1,000 day SMA around $2.50…Pacific Ridge Exploration (PEX, TSX-V) took a haircut yesterday following drill results from its Mariposa Project, while Kaminak Gold (KAM, TSX-V) is trying hard to keep above the $3 level…all three companies, and many other companies active in the Yukon, continue to have great projects but market sentiment has turned negative – at least for the time being…

Golden Predator (GPD, TSX) released solid results within the last half hour from its Clear Creek Project in the Yukon including 25.5 metres of 2.19 g/t Au from a depth of 15 m from Hole CC11-043; 46.5 metres of 1.69 g/t Au from a depth of 19.5 m from Hole CC11-049; and 52.95 metres of 2.26 g/t Au from a depth of 3.05 m from Hole CC11-051…GPD is currently off 2 pennies at 86 cents…

While Gold remains at very favorable levels, the CDNX is not immune to global influences – in fact, because of its highly speculative nature, it’s usually the first Index to catch a cold before all the others and this is what happened in March…the mess in the euro zone continues and until policymakers can come together and “overwhelm” the problem, as Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty recently stated, markets will continue to be volatile and under pressure…it has become painfully obvious, especially in recent months, that political leadership throughout the world just isn’t sufficient to tackle the debt and growth problems that are plaguing many countries right now and threatening to throw the global economy into recession…Canada is not excluded from that problem and one only had to watch last night’s Ontario leaders’ debate as proof of that…the National Post’s John Ivison summed it up well:  “The overall impression was of three leaders squirting black ink into the water, like a giant octopus, trying to obscure the fact that the province is about to enter a period of retrenchment”…the political situation in Ontario (election coming October 6) is important for investors to keep an eye on because while it’s true there has been a significant shift in both economic and political power in Canada from east to west over the last decade, Ontario is still a critical economic engine for this country…if it stalls, or if Ontario becomes a less friendly business climate, the fallout will be widespread…the nightmare scenario is the strong possibility of a Liberal-NDP minority government in Ontario with NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s “warm fuziness” masking a toxic policy prescription of corporate tax increases ($9 billion) and protectionist “Buy Ontario” policies…she is also no friend of the mining industry…she has a nice smile and can give a good speech, though, which unfortunately reminds us of an American President who has been leading his country down a dangerous economic path…all three Ontario leaders last night avoided discussion of two very critical issues – the long-term unsustainability of the province’s health-care system and how to effectively deal with Ontario’s staggering debt of more than $200 billion…Premier McGuinty, who has racked up more debt for Ontario than all his predecessors combined, seemed equally out of control in last night’s debate, flailing his arms around like a windmill as he lectured everyone on “clean energy” and how David Suzuki backs his platform…good grief…the mushy “progressive” conservative Hudak wasn’t much more impressive and couldn’t directly answer most questions…Ontario’s in trouble and that’s not good for any of us…

5 Comments

  1. There is a sell off in SFF in the 20 cents but support is really good at this level…. something is cooking in the positive side….

    Comment by Theodore — September 28, 2011 @ 8:59 am

  2. Timmmbbberrrr – tsx dropped 100 points in 15 minutes. reading bunch of reports from respected analysts that we will see another 2008 this october, only worse. U.S. will not be bailing out the banks. CITI just announced news they are in trouble. Trade accordingly.Oh yeah, that will make gold go up, but not the gold stocks, at least not until 2012. There will be some real deals come oct and nov.

    Comment by dave — September 28, 2011 @ 9:41 am

  3. By using my personals charts… my advice is to stay out of ventur stocks until European and the US get there acts together. I saw stocks ( mostly Uranium stocks ) in 2006-2007 that were the king’s on the ventur , many were trading over a dollar and even two, ending up at the end of 2008 trading under 10 cents. Be careful out there..it’s far from over.

    Comment by Andre — September 28, 2011 @ 12:20 pm

  4. 2008 is possible if Greece defaults. And if that happens then it will be worse this time because both the US and Europe are in such a bad shape.

    Euro will break up eventually, but I don’t see them letting Greece default yet because they are not equipped to handle that at this point. Thus I see today’s action over done.

    Days like today, I rather see Greece default. It would be much easier to get into the short side. Constant risk on/off is tiring. Plus reading about people protesting at Greece is annoying. If Greece default, they ain’t gonna get their entitlement either. So stupid. People there should focus on resolving issue rather than protesting.

    Comment by Bruce — September 28, 2011 @ 4:49 pm

  5. Well said Bruce. I am sick of reading and hearing about Greece. They created this issue so they should face the facts and work together to solve it. I am still holding most of my stocks, including the venture. Good luck to all! Hope that things don’t keep going south towards the end of the week.

    I know I have said this before but take a look at CPN on the venture. If you like the way it looks, and things keep going down, wait until it bottoms out to buy. They are on target to produce gold late 2012 and early 2013 which might not be a bad time line if things keep going the way they are.

    Comment by Tim — September 28, 2011 @ 8:44 pm

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