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November 28, 2011

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Markets are buoyant today as a rally has set in as expected…conditions were ripe for this toward the end of last week…after testing strong support in the $1,665-$1,680 area, Gold has shot up higher today…as of 7:50 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $33 an ounce to $1,713…Silver has gained $1.15 to $32.13…Copper is 11 cents higher at $3.40…Crude Oil is enjoying a powerful day, up $2.53 a barrel to $99.30 while the U.S. Dollar Index has lost one-quarter of a point to 79.00…this day definitely belongs to the bulls but as we stated over the weekend, the big picture is still bearish for equities though Gold producers and near-producers could out-perform…it’s “decision time” for Gold in December (see last Thursday’s “Gold Update”) and its performance next month should set the tone for how things kick off in the New Year…a rising trendline will converge with the $1,665-$1,680 band of support by the second half of next month which will make that area even more interesting and critical from a technical perspective…these are fascinating times for Gold

U.S. retailers racked up a record $52.4 billion in sales over the Thanksgiving weekend, a 16.4% jump from a year ago, as early hours and attractive promotions brought out more shoppers, an industry trade group said yesterday…the American consumer is still spending and markets are certainly encouraged by those early Christmas shopping numbers…

Several pieces of critical economic data for the U.S. will be released this week including the ISM, a manufacturing report, slated for release on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report, set for release on Friday…the general consensus is that the data will show that the U.S. recovery remains on track…however, traders and investors will continue to focus on developments in the euro zone where, based on the recent action in the bond markets, the risk of a region-wide credit crunch is growing…some important policy announcements regarding the euro zone are expected this week…

Meanwhile, European leaders need to provide “credible and large enough firepower” to halt the sell-off in the euro zone sovereign debt market or they will risk a severe recession, according to the chief economist of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development…the warning came as the organization slashed its half-yearly forecasts for growth within the world’s richest countries, and said activity in Europe would grind to a near-halt…“The scenario so far is that Europe’s leaders have been behind the curve”, Pier Carlo Padoan was quoted as saying in the Financial Times this morning…“We believe this could be very serious”… he said that leaders need to put in place firm plans for fiscal integration…in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook released this morning, the OECD has cut its 2012 world growth estimate to 3.4% from 3.8% this year…that marks a sharp fall from its previous outlook in May when the OECD estimated the world economy would grow 4.2% this year and 4.6% in 2012…struggling to contain an unprecedented debt crisis, the euro zone has already entered a recession and will eke out growth of only 0.2% in 2012, the OECD said, slashing its forecast from 2% in May…the OECD expects growth in China will slow to 8.5% in 2012 from 9.3% this year…

Moody’s, the U.S. rating agency, warned this morning that the rapidly escalating crisis in the euro zone is threatening the standing of all the region’s governments as their ability to raise capital in the markets is increasingly questioned…

The CDNX is up 26 points to 1531…it will of course face resistance around 1575 which was previous support…Cap-Ex Ventures (CEV, TSX-V) is up 2 pennies to $1.07…the company has made what appears to be a world class iron ore discovery near Schefferville, Quebec…with a bullish chart and a current market cap of just under $50 million, CEV holds considerable promise…strong insider buying is also a positive sign…from a technical perspective, it’s reasonable to conclude that CEV’s 52-week (or all-time) high of $1.62 could very easily be tested in December…since last week there has been a gradual and healthy unwinding of an overbought technical condition, setting the stage for another possible leg up in the near future…Adventure Gold (AGE, TSX-V), Spanish Mountain Gold (SPA, TSX-V) and Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V) are all looking favorable at the moment…we’ll have more on AGE’s Pascalis-Colombiere Property in early December including some impressive pictures from a recent site visit…

26 Comments

  1. Dave, about CEV, to my amateur eye it looks to be forming a bullish pennant,any thoughts or are you a fundementals guy only?

    Comment by george — November 28, 2011 @ 9:01 am

  2. Good morning, I see that MY prediction for EPO, Encanto Potash was correct, a nice 15% pop to open the day…. GDX, SFF, GBB ???? Oh yeah, we don’t discuss those anymore…LOL READ the EPO news release this morning abot the TLE designation vote VERY CAREFULLY….. in about a week from now these 28-30 cent prices will look like a Christmas gift!!!! I see that GBB is almost at my bid price of .145, but I will DEFINITELY be lowering it to .11 pr less as tax loss selling accelerates, perhaps I can load up on Long Bars for under .10, if that fails I can always buy chocolate bars….LOL Now seriously, go back 1 year in time to VGN, this is exactly around the SAME time last year that VGN took off, my senses are tingling as Tony is about to let the investing community know WHEN and HOW VGN will spin out it’s gold assets into a separate company and WHERE the NEW gold property is, that is ALREADY permitted, with PROVEN ounces in the ground….. You heard it HERE 1st.

    Comment by John — November 28, 2011 @ 9:02 am

  3. Sorry, forgot to mention, IF GBB’s Long Bars Zone, contains the PURPORTED 1 plus million ounces og Gold, ask yourself WHY the share prices is CONSISTENTLY going LOWER??? Ask BMR when THEY sold their shares in GBB….???? VGN is about to EXPLODE to the upside very soon…. can you say SILVER and Mexico in the same sentence???? hhmmmm Evrim metals, Mexico, Paddy Nicol,Paul Van Eden…. Nechako, New Gold…

    Comment by John — November 28, 2011 @ 9:12 am

  4. I have to admit John, the silence here in light of significant share price destruction of GBB makes me think you might be on to something here. Be nice to hear something from BMR.

    Comment by mike — November 28, 2011 @ 9:18 am

  5. CJC, don’t be fooled with all the anon selling. My group saw the same thing with CEV when it was in the 30’s and we just sat back and laughed. They are trying to get you to sell your shares so they can pick some up cheaper. The ask has been getting hit all day. The TA: RSI rising, slow and fast stocks in a “W” formation, but the best 2 I like is the 20sma about to touch the 50 sma, and the MACD has formed a “clothes pin” formation. Bullish. See you all tomorrow.

    Comment by dave — November 28, 2011 @ 10:15 am

  6. Mike, WHAT could BMR possibly say?? Sidon will most likely NEVER trade again…. Is it possible that BMR has MORE than just the 1 DOG in their portfolio than they claim?? Ask yourself WHY they continue to post these charts on GDX GBB and CUI??? These stocks are or very near their LOWS!!! Im NOT slamming BMR personally, what does make me suspicious though is they CONTINUE to put these companies in the spot light. Yes it’s a free service/site but the companies they ” HIGH LIGHT” are going DOWN every day/week yet they still post charts… Encanto, that I mentioned last week has had some VERY encouraging news today READ the press release VERY CAREFULLY, EPO will, in my opinion, be 50% highr than today’s high of .30 within 10-14 days. AND VGN will shine bright as a star very soon!!

    Comment by John — November 28, 2011 @ 10:28 am

  7. John, you seem like you have a vendetta against BMR. Is there a reason that you post/bash them in the comments pretty much everyday? How about you turn your frustration into something constructive — such as creating your own “blog” and ranting/pumping your own picks? It just seems a little tiring to see the same routine from you day in and day out.

    Comment by Dan — November 28, 2011 @ 10:34 am

  8. John,

    Why do you persist ad infinitum in pushing VGN? It’s down 150% since the January high. Isn’t this precisely what you accuse BMR of doing?

    Comment by Roger — November 28, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  9. I bought VGN at .09 years ago, so I am NOT down at all, sold 1/2 my holdings at .395, and bought back another 60,000 shares between .135-.15, my average is now .1025 TSX up big time, Gold up BIG TIME CUI, GDX GBB??? Oops and there it is a NEW 52 week low for GBB, great call BMR. GDX .o45?? Stellar pick, CUI another HOME RUN OPPORTUNITY and and v.SD??

    Comment by John — November 28, 2011 @ 12:38 pm

  10. QE3 in the pipline?

    zerohedge.com/news/socgen-sees-600-billion-qe3-starting-march-2012-sending-gold-between-1900-and-8500oz

    telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8918784/Should-the-Fed-save-Europe-from-disaster.html

    Comment by Hugh — November 28, 2011 @ 2:43 pm

  11. John, I don’t know what they could say, other than they are still holding this stock, as they previously disclosed. and what they make of updated corporate presentation on the gbb website+, bawdy limericks, anything really.

    Comment by mike — November 28, 2011 @ 5:26 pm

  12. My friend Mike… Starting to wake up…

    Comment by Andre — November 28, 2011 @ 8:11 pm

  13. Richmont Announces Completion of 2011 Drilling Program at Wasamac; Updated Resource Calculation Expected in Mid-December
    The new Wasamac drill results, I think, will disappoint. I wonder if this will affect VGD – maybe that’s why they’re holding on to assays?

    Comment by Andrew — November 29, 2011 @ 5:49 am

  14. Actually, Andrew, I think these are quite decent and will expand on the resource. Particularly encouraging are some of the results from Zone 3 which helps confirm the view that the mineralization at Wasamac extends to the east (5.21 g/t Au over 12 m cut outside the shear zone in the footwall of Zone 3 – nice)…my personal opinion after this year’s drill results is that we could see a 50% increase in the updated resource estimate which is coming in mid-December…1.4 million ounces (all categories) to 2 million ounces, give or take a little…with expanded drilling, over the Globex claims and elsewhere, the potential to take this resource up to several million ounces certainly exists. Great potential.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — November 29, 2011 @ 6:28 am

  15. Thanks Jon, I knew I would be wrong with my interpretation – at least I’m consistent. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — November 29, 2011 @ 6:33 am

  16. No “eye-popping” results like at the end of August with that one hole, but they do the job of expanding the resource…

    Comment by BMR — November 29, 2011 @ 6:45 am

  17. George, I am actually a technical trader, but with CEV and CJC, I am both. You are correct with the pendant. I would look for an .85 to .88 entry. Time is running out on CJC, She is now in an established uptrend with .35 being absolute bottom (if your lucky), resistance at .39 with the strongest being at .35. The RSI is unwinding a bit but the MACD is still pointing up. The 20sma has just touched the 50 sma. I predict a breakout to occur after the .50 has been breached and this should occur early next week, followed by a halt and some great assays. It would not surprise me to see the open from halt in the dollar range. Happy trading, cheers

    Comment by dave — November 29, 2011 @ 8:21 am

  18. GDX releases news today YAWN…. NObody cares. GBB as well YAWN nobody cares. as I read the GBB news I found it VERY CURIOUS that they did NOT reveal their CASH POSITION???? hhhmmmm Looking at the world through rose coloured glasses makes things look good only for so long…. Im sure BMR will have a chart and a ROSY write on these 2 companies GREAT news releases today….LOL BARF!!!

    Comment by John — November 29, 2011 @ 8:22 am

  19. sorry, pennant, bad spelling

    Comment by dave — November 29, 2011 @ 8:23 am

  20. John, a corporate update on a website is not actually an NR.

    Comment by Hugh — November 29, 2011 @ 8:28 am

  21. Oh and look VGN has ZERO volume again!!! must be something brewing there alright!

    Comment by Hugh — November 29, 2011 @ 8:32 am

  22. Nice one, Hugh 🙂 Dave, thanks again for your TA on CJC and CEV.

    Comment by Andrew — November 29, 2011 @ 8:39 am

  23. John, if you bought GBB last year when Jon was high on it, you would have made a killing. Gold stocks are beaten down right now, this is not Jon,s fault nor can he control it. If you are high on EPO, then just state why you think it is going higher and let the listeners here decide for themselves whether to buy or not. Some have made good money on CEV even if they did not jump in when I mentioned it at .35. Some have jumped in CJC at rock bottom prices. Stay positive with your posts, your negative comments don’t do anything to make his listeners feel any better. Lighten up and lets have some fun and make money.

    Comment by dave — November 29, 2011 @ 8:46 am

  24. Calm before the storm little ones. If you actually follow VGN’s trading patterns, you will noticed there are days with volume, albeit low volumes of 80,000 or less and days with ZERO volume. Now, when the markets tank, do you want a company with lots of volume and share price declines? Or a company with NO volume and NO share price declines?? Fools. 30-45 days from now, you WILL be sorry that you did not buy VGN at these levels.WHERE in the ” corporate” UPDATE for GBB do they state their CASH position?? VGN has cash on hand, and cash coming IN EVERY month!!!! Check the charts for the last 30-40 days. VGN has stayed steady in the .145-.175 range and GBB??? DOWN DOWN DOWN EVERY WEEK!!!! You, Hugh most likely followed BMR’s advice, like a sheep to the slaughter and are now DOWN large sums of maoney, PITY!!

    Comment by John — November 29, 2011 @ 8:47 am

  25. Yawn

    Comment by Hugh — November 29, 2011 @ 9:08 am

  26. gotgoldreport.com/2011/11/got-gold-report-season-of-blue.html

    Comment by Hugh — November 29, 2011 @ 9:17 am

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