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January 24, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

From Vancouver, B.C.

Gold is pulling back slightly this morning on mild profit-taking…as of 6:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $13 an ounce at $1,664 after reaching an overnight high of $1,683…Silver is off 29 cents at $32.06…Copper is down a nickel at $3.75…Crude Oil is 33 cents lower at $99.25 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up one-third of a point at 80.12…

The CDNX enjoyed another strong day yesterday, climbing 18 points to 1589 with volume picking up as well…this market has indeed turned the corner and the rest of this quarter could be quite robust…any weakness at this point should be viewed as an opportunity with the rising 10 and 20-day moving averages (SMA’s) providing strong support…

Dow futures are modestly lower as of 6:00 am Pacific…it’s a big day for U.S. corporate earnings, which should show continued strength, and President Obama delivers his State-of-the-Union address tonight which will be a campaign speech more than anything else…

We fully expect Gold will surge to a new all-time high in 2012 but what it does in the coming days will be very interesting as the yellow metal is right up against a resistance area as John’s chart shows below…buying pressure increased significantly yesterday which is a positive sign…the action in the Venture Exchange strongly suggests that Gold will break through the $1,700 barrier sometime during this first quarter – who knows, perhaps even this week…Gold will make up its own mind if it wants to bust out now or later…

Markets will be closely watching a new Federal Open Market Committee reporting format for any new signs on how long it could be before voting members undertake any monetary policy changes…the meeting begins this morning and wraps up tomorrow…the FOMC is expected to release a policy statement around 12:30 p.m. eastern tomorrow, and Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to hold a 2:15 p.m. news conference…what’s different about the format now is that individual voting FOMC members will be offering their expectations for future interest rate direction…

Germany is open to boosting the firepower of the euro zone’s rescue funds to 750 billion euros in exchange for strict budget rules favored by Berlin in a new fiscal compact for all members of the currency union…the Financial Times reported this morning how Berlin appears to be softening its longstanding resistance to increasing the funds only hours after the International Monetary Fund warned that the euro zone needed more money to build “a larger firewall” to prevent the crisis from spreading to its core economies…

U.S. stocks are trading at their cheapest levels since at least 1990, according to such commonly used valuations as price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios as well as dividend yield, Bespoke Investment Group says…this realization will lift the S&P 500 Index by 11% to 1400 this year or maybe more, according to the research firm’s 2012 outlook report…“The S&P 500 is currently trading below its historical average P/E and P/B ratios, and these ratios are also at their lowest levels in the careers of a large percentage of money managers,” wrote strategists Paul Hickey and Justin Walters…

Vancouver Resource Conference

The well-attended Cambridge Show wrapped up yesterday and we have important pieces of information from that event to share with our readers beginning with comments yesterday from respected geologist and newsletter writer Lawrence Roulston (Roulston publishes www.ResourceOpportunities.com)…

Roulston quote from presentation at Conference yesterday:

I’m putting down last Friday as the official turning point in the junior markets. Gold was up, a lot of the companies were up, but in particular one event really demonstrated just how much money is available and how the mood has changed.  One of the companies that we follow, Calibre Mining (CXB, TSX-V), put out some drill results from a project in Nicaragua.  In reality, the results were not a whole lot different than results they had published over the last few months and the last year.  But on Friday those results attracted the attention of investors, the stock traded 25 million shares and the price went from 18 cents to 37 cents in one day.  And in the first hour this morning, it traded another 10 million shares and traded as high as 49 cents.  So back to Jim Letourneau’s question, when’s the last home run, well, the people who bought Calibre a few weeks ago at 10 cents, this morning they could have sold it as high as 49 cents.  So there’s one example of a home run right here.

“Even more to the point, more significantly, what that tells me is that this money that has been sitting on the sidelines is ready to come back into the market.  When they see good news, they will act decisively and in a very big way.  So all of the fundamentals are there.  The potential of a euro collapse, disaster or catastrophe is really priced into a lot of these stocks at these prices.  And if we don’t get that disaster scenario, and I deeply, sincerely believe that we will not get a complete meltdown – we’ll get a muddling through but not a meltdown – and if that’s the case, then people are going to come back, reinvest and re-deploy their money as we’re seeing here.  The share prices at these levels are very, very attractive and represent extraordinary bargains.”

Some of Roulston’s favorites include Alexco Resource Corp. (AXR, TSX), Novagold Resources (NG, TSX), Revolution Resources (RV, TSX-V), Amarc Resources (AHR, TSX-V), Candente Copper (DNT, TSX), Terrax Minerals (TXR, TSX-V), and Yale Resources (YLL, TSX-V)…

BMR Interviews RBW’s Johnston

We’re more convinced than ever that Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) has started what could potentially become a spectacular move after a lengthy discussion with new President David Johnston…we’re putting that interview together today to share with our readers…Johnston, who’s conducting a video interview this morning with a well-known and respected  individual who covers the mining scene, made a powerful case for his company’s Big Strike Project in the West Kootenays and his overall vision for where Rainbow is headed…a strong group is involved with Rainbow as Johnston has the likes of Jim Decker (Grande Cache coal fame), Bob Libin (Calgary Flames’ part-owner) and Bruce Durham (successful geologist) at his side…RBW is a winner if we’ve ever seen one, and the company’s market cap is just $5 million…

iSign Media Solutions (ISD, TSX-V)

John has an updated chart this morning on an interesting non-resource company we’ve been watching since the spring of last year, iSign Media Solutions (ISD, TSX-V)…

Note: John holds a position in ISD (Jon and Terry do not).

25 Comments

  1. Why the need to ramp RBW. You done exactly the same with VGD and CQX, they have since both crashed and burned without so much as a mention from BMR.

    If this is the way you like to make money then fair enough, but at least have the balls to say when you have got it wrong too.

    Comment by Mark — January 24, 2012 @ 6:23 am

  2. Why the need to push RBW, Mark? Very simple – because I’m convinced after several months of research that this is one of the best ground-floor opportunities I’ve seen in the last couple of years. Plain and simple. I bought more yesterday, I have a substantial position and I haven’t sold a single share, nor do I plan to until much later in the year. Market cap is just $5 million. The people involved, the fact this is a company that was a shell just a few months ago and has not yet had its first major run, the land package (silver, gold, many high-grade showings), etc., should tell u something. We have found a potential huge winner for our readers and hopefully some will see the opportunity and profit from it. Have some of our picks not worked out? Sure, even Rick Rule has some that don’t. But we’ve also had several 10-baggers and we’ve made some very accurate market calls on Gold and the Venture. This is a very speculative market. There are risks. But when a market turns and you’re looking at a situation like RBW, you pounce. I’ve pounced and I’m quite certain in my own mind where this is headed. 2011 was a tough year. We’ve worked hard to try to find the best low-priced situation for our readers for 2012 and RBW fits the bill. See you at much higher prices.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 24, 2012 @ 6:45 am

  3. Nice one, Jon – I’m on board with RBW. Mark – BMR did mention several times their disappointment with CQX not “seizing the moment” and also when VGD did the flow through financing prior to results, S. Inwentash selling, director resigning etc. all showing weakness. The only aspect I would like to see change is the BMR special Alerts to alert when BMR notice something not going to schedule. An alert on VGD back in September cautioning that the picture had changed would have been helpful – it also balances the discussion.

    Comment by Andrew — January 24, 2012 @ 7:03 am

  4. Id question where your very accurate calls on the Venture were. You were bullish on it almost right up until the retrace was running out of steam, stating the long term trend was intact. You then went very bearish on a week of panic selling when people should have started picking up bargains on stink bids.
    No one has a crystal ball, but Id suggest your calls on the Venture were awful in 2011.

    Comment by Mark — January 24, 2012 @ 7:17 am

  5. I share your pain, but i may be looking at it differently & hopefully
    BMR have learned from their experiences. Never too old to learn. I feel
    BMR fell prey to the loose lips out there & besides, the market turned
    against us. I get comfort from the fact that they were trying to be of
    assistance & therefore i find it difficult to lay blame, exception of
    course, some of the so called big boys out there, whom i blame completely.
    They are capable of using all the tricks of the trade & really are not
    even worthy of mention. Anyway, i haven’t as yet taken a position in RBW,
    but i do believe that BMR believe, that they do have a winner, but it
    has to be more than a decision based on a chart. What will happen tomorrow,
    next week, next month with certainty, should not be based on chart readings
    200, 500, 1000 days ago. A possible good pick should be based on some fundamentals, i realize we are looking at speculative stocks, but consideration
    must be given to properties, historical data & in particular, good management, etc. As for having the balls to admit one is wrong, the game is not over yet
    & would you believe, with time some of those stocks will rebound. I realize
    that’s not the way we want to play this game, but stocks have to be secondary
    in our lives, the important thing is WE are still breathing. Good luck ! R !

    Comment by Bert — January 24, 2012 @ 7:25 am

  6. My last post is supposed to be directed to Mark in particular

    Comment by Bert — January 24, 2012 @ 7:26 am

  7. The tsxv has popped a little above the downward 50 day,last 3 times it did this it then crashed hundreds of points! The S&P is overbought & may be rolling over here, $VIX broke lower bollinger band a few days ago….etc. I’m staying out for now!

    Comment by jake — January 24, 2012 @ 7:29 am

  8. Bert, I like your comments, as always. Fundamentals are vitality important to reduce the risk. The lack of fundamentals were my biggest problem with VGD (I’m suspicious about the only hole that hit at Wasa Creek) and CUI. Hopefully, CEV will prove itself once the “big boys” and penny flippers stop toying with it, AGE also has the fundamentals. CJC is literally a pure gamble and not looking good, so I’ll probably lose out on that one also – then that will be three in a row so maybe my luck will turn! I mentioned HMG last week but had no feedback – wish I had gone ahead on my own now! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — January 24, 2012 @ 7:57 am

  9. RBW could have a ride just like Hundra Silver HDA did few monte ago when silver hit almost 50$, it ran from ,25$ to 2,25$
    Similar grade, area, share structure…

    Comment by Martin — January 24, 2012 @ 8:12 am

  10. Andrew

    Would you believe, while i was typing my most recent post this morning,
    i got filled for RBW. Only a small position (5K), but a position just
    the same. I may add if it goes lower. It’s great in some cases, to have
    a lot of shares, but the more you have, the more one can lose & the less
    one has,, the less one may profit, but i would prefer a small profit rather
    than a large loss. Anyway, as previously mentioned, i hold IGO as a gift
    from NGD/SQI. I was fortunate enough to sell a few (5K) at the high this
    morning, (0.37). Would you believe, i profited by $1,8500.00 with only 5K
    shares. Trying to make a point here Andrew, it’s not what you have, it’s
    how you use it. Good luck ! R !

    Comment by Bert — January 24, 2012 @ 8:15 am

  11. Correction

    Take $9.95 off my profit on IGO, i had to pay $9.95 to get out.

    Comment by Bert — January 24, 2012 @ 8:19 am

  12. Andrew
    I am sorry I missed your mention of HMG, so I just looked at the weekly chart. The support was at 1.3 and looks to have the next main resis. at 2.00 so there is plenty of upside left. Because you did not get in at the bottom don’t give up on it. Look at the chart again.
    hope this helps.

    Comment by John - BMR — January 24, 2012 @ 8:40 am

  13. Thank you, John for taking the time to look at HMG for me – I appreciate that very much and I’ll go back and reassess.

    Comment by Andrew — January 24, 2012 @ 8:54 am

  14. VGD has granted options to the boys at 0.15 & get this, for
    a period of 10 years. They might as well said, for an unlimited
    period of time.

    Comment by Bert — January 24, 2012 @ 9:42 am

  15. Anybody watching V.EKG? I’ve been watching it the last couple of days and wishing one of the stocks i am holding would run up like that……….sigh.

    Comment by Ed — January 24, 2012 @ 12:52 pm

  16. Anybody watching V.EKG? Wishing one of the stocks i am holding would run like that…..Sigh.

    Comment by Ed — January 24, 2012 @ 12:59 pm

  17. @ Ed
    Seems to me that a whole LOT of people got rich today by owning that stock you are mentioning. Lycky ones!

    Comment by Kalkan - Sweden — January 24, 2012 @ 1:36 pm

  18. Wouldnt’ it be nice to see CJC hit that kind of volume. Yikes. If they could only get their sh*t together and issue a NR with results. Anyone here anything regarding that POS??

    Comment by Tony T — January 24, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

  19. I spoke with one of the directors at the Resource Show Monday. My thoughts, based on that discussion, is that CJC won’t be putting out any results until sometime in early February (lab turnaround with ALS not as quick as what they had hoped and they may ultimately change labs). I’ve never been a shareholder of CJC but I do believe their project has very good potential. It’s a waiting game at the moment.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2012 @ 4:33 am

  20. Hi BMR,
    Any comments on Seafield Resources drill results that published this morning?

    Comment by Kalkan — January 25, 2012 @ 4:43 am

  21. Really nice results, mineralization extended at depth as well as outside the resource model. Nice numbers. I really like what Lopez is doing with Seafield and I’m convinced it’s going to make a nice move in 2012. Will comment more on the results in morning musings which will be posted around market open.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 25, 2012 @ 5:57 am

  22. Ok,
    thanks.
    I took position in SFF at 0.155. Think I am going to keep this for a while.

    Comment by Kalkan — January 25, 2012 @ 6:03 am

  23. Kalkan – I have my fingers crossed that you get a double today, you’re already up > 50% – congratulations! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — January 25, 2012 @ 7:56 am

  24. @jon BMR. thanks for getting back to me.

    Comment by Tony T — January 25, 2012 @ 7:57 am

  25. @ Andrew
    Thanks 🙂
    I think it has found solid support now around 0,21-0,215. I am keeping those, see what happens. A real turnaround is a fact! High volume today…

    Comment by Kalkan - Sweden — January 25, 2012 @ 9:19 am

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