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January 26, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold made an important and powerful move yesterday as the Federal Reserve set the stage for three more years of ultra-loose monetary policy in the world’s largest economy…as of 6:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up another $15 an ounce to $1,726…Silver is 35 cents higher at $33.62…Copper has gained a nickel to $3.87…Crude Oil is up $1.29 to $100.69 while the U.S. Dollar Index has fallen one-third of a point to 79.15…

After Gold’s big move yesterday, which we’ll explain in a moment, it’s important to go to the charts and examine a major producer to see what we can learn, so this morning John takes a look at Goldcorp Inc. (G, TSX)…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in Goldcorp.

Helicopter Ben To The Rescue + China’s Easing Of Credit

The FOMC indicated that it intends to keep interest rates at “exceptionally low levels” until late 2014, compared to guidance of mid-2013 previously, which gave the commodity and stock markets such a boost yesterday….additionally, the FOMC signaled that further accommodation would likely come from adjustments to the balance sheet…a renewed belief among traders and investors that the Federal Reserve stands ready to support financial assets is helping contain festering euro zone worries…

Meanwhile, as reported in the Financial Times this morning, the government-induced credit crunch in the Chinese commodities industry is ending, according to western traders, triggering a wave of bullishness regarding the outlook for industrial raw materials…

Beijing’s clampdown on lending cast a pall over commodity markets in the second half of last year, with the benchmark price gauge, the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, falling as much as 21% from a peak in May…

Leading western trading companies are saying, however, that in recent weeks their Chinese trading partners have started to gain easier access to credit, allowing them to make larger purchases of commodities… “Sales of copper to China are currently at the highest we have seen over the past year,” a senior executive at a large trading house told the Financial Times…”Credit is easing in China and that correlates at a later stage with stronger growth”…

The change in credit conditions in China, the largest consumer of commodities from iron ore to soyabeans, has helped to reverse the gloomy sentiment among natural resources investors that took hold in the final months of last year…

Copper, one of the sector bellwethers which counts on China for 40% of its demand, has rallied 16% in the past six weeks and yesterday touched a four-month high…

Venture Exchange

The Venture Exchange 50-day moving average (SMA) is ready to turn to the upside any day now and that’s an extremely bullish sign…this 50-day SMA reversal will have no problem holding which is a repeat of major market turning points in January, 2009, and September, 2010…John’s long-term CDNX chart we posted yesterday says it all – position yourself now to make a potential fortune over the course of the next year…this is a “Wave 3” move and they are usually extremely powerful…

The trading action in Seafield Resources (SFF, TSX-V) yesterday was an excellent example of how Venture Exchange market sentiment has truly changed…Seafield released solid results from its Miraflores Property in the Quinchia District of Colombia but the numbers were generally consistent with what we’ve seen from Miraflores over the past year and what we know about the project…however, the market’s reaction to the news was different and SFF exploded to a high of 24.5 cents on total volume (all exchanges) of 9.6 million shares…the volume surge was very revealing…a lot of cash is indeed sitting on the sidelines and waiting to come into this market…we are bullish on the prospects for Seafield as it’s a well-run company with more than just Miraflores going for it…SFF has an attractive overall land package at Quinchia and we wouldn’t be surprised if CEO Cesar Lopez  is able to add more properties to the mix in Colombia…

By Monday of next week we’ll be reviewing what we consider to be some of the best opportunities in this new market environment…some of the companies we’ve already mentioned while others are new to this space…one thing we’ll state now…anticipating a possible market reversal at some point in 2012, we made a decision over the final few months of last year to search diligently for the most attractive situation we could find for our readers that was on no one’s radar screen…we needed a potential big winner, another home run, to introduce to our readers…that’s what led us to Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX), a former shell that was first listed on the Venture Exchange in January of last year…in this business, one of the most important questions to ask regarding a stock is this:  Does the upside potential vastly exceed the downside risk?…with a current market cap of just $5 million, we believe the answer to that question in this situation is a resounding “yes”…we have put our case forward regarding Rainbow since December…on Monday, we’ll be updating and re-capping our case for RBW following our lengthy interview earlier this week with President David Johnston…we’ll include many of his answers to our questions which our readers should find helpful…Johnston is a class act and he has been successful at everything he has done…

Yesterday was a “hammer day” for Rainbow as the stock rebounded off strong support to close at its high of the day, 19 cents…a breakout into the mid-20’s over the very near future is supported by John’s chart which examines just the short-term picture…an extremely bullish set-up is developing for the medium and longer-term which qualifies RBW as a potential “home run” opportunity…just one thing we really like about Rainbow is that it is both a Silver and a Gold exploration story with high historical property grades and near-surface mineralization…this is an aggressive young company that will also likely add to its project portfolio…one of the directors (Bob Libin) is part-owner of the Calgary Flames while another (Jim Decker) was extremely successful with Grande Cache Coal, raising $7 million and guiding it out of bankruptcy and turning it into a market darling that finally got taken over…Decker now provides consulting services for some major producers…those are the people you want to have in your 19-cent penny stock…below is John’s updated RBW chart…

Note: John and Jon hold positions in RBW (with Jon adding to his position again yesterday).  Terry does not hold a position.

A new company we’re now keeping an eye on – we strongly suggest our readers check it out – is Ucore Rare Metals (UCU, TSX-V) which has the largest heavy rare earth deposit in the United States (NI-43-101 compliant) in Alaska…UCU closed at 45 cents yesterday and has a market cap of approximately $65 million…John likes what he sees in the UCU chart for a potential strong turnaround as this stock has been as high as $1.30…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in UCU.

17 Comments

  1. Cap-Ex Drill Results Indicate Increase in Average Thickness of “Greenbush Zone”

    Cap-Ex Ventures Ltd. (TSX VENTURE:CEV)(OTCQX:CPXVF)(FRANKFURT:X0V) (“Cap-Ex” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce four additional assay results from the 2011 diamond drilling on its wholly owned Block 103 iron property, which is located 30 kilometres northwest of the mining town of Schefferville, Quebec.

    The four new drill assay results are located on the east limb of the Greenbush Zone:

    — DDH103-3 interval 204.2 metres at 30.9% total Fe from 5.2 metres, open
    at depth
    — DDH103-18 interval 194.2 metres at 29.9% total Fe from 3.0 metres, open
    at depth
    — DDH103-20 interval 128.0 metres at 30.3% total Fe from 17.4 metres, open
    at depth
    — DDH103-34 interval 152.4 metres at 30.1% total Fe from 29.6 metres, open
    at depth
    (Refer to Table 1 attached, for all the new results)

    Spread over a strike length in excess of 6 kilometres, it is important to note that all four drill holes ended in mineralization and consequently the mineralization is open at depth. The drilling depth will be extended in the 2012 season to delineate the increase in average thickness of the magnetite mineralization. (Refer to “Greenbush Zone Drill Hole Map” Figure 1 attached, which can also be found at cap-ex.ca).

    To View Figure 1, please visit the following link: media3.marketwire.com/docs/CEV126I.pdf.

    The Company expects to soon receive additional 2011 drill assay results from Block 103’s Greenbush Zone and Northwest Zone.

    Based on the currently available 2011 drill results and airborne geophysical programs, the Company has made the following interpretations regarding the Greenbush Zone:

    — The Greenbush Zone hosts strong magnetite mineralization that has been
    identified to cover an area of at least 20 square kilometres. This Zone
    features strong, coincident magnetic and gravimetric airborne anomalies,
    which show remarkable reliability as drilling targets. All 26 drill
    holes have encountered significant mineralization from 45 to 265 metres
    in thickness.

    — The average length of the core intercepts of magnetite mineralization
    encountered in the 26 holes drilled in the Greenbush Zone is 122 metres.
    This number is based on assays from 21 holes and the visual estimation
    of magnetite content in the remaining holes.

    — The average grade of the mineralization is 30.5% total Fe and the Davis
    Tube concentrate grades average 68.2% iron and 4.7% silica.

    — The Company is using a Specific Gravity of 3.3, which is the same used
    for the surrounding magnetite deposits.

    — In most holes, mineralization starts near surface and is open in all
    directions.

    Cap-Ex President and CEO, Mr Francois Laurin, comments, “We are very pleased with these new assay results of the Greenbush Zone, they continue to show strength in the mineralization and its average grade. These results reinforce our decision to pursue an aggressive 2012 exploration drilling program in the Block 103 iron property.”

    TABLE 1 – Greenbush Zone
    —————————————————————————-
    TABLE WITH ASSAYS AND CORE INTERCEPTS
    —————————————————————————-
    Hole From To Core interval Total Fe Mineralization
    —————————————————————————-
    number (m) (m) (m) (%)
    —————————————————————————-
    DDH103-3 5.2 209.4 204.2 30.9 open at depth
    —————————————————————————-
    DDH103-18 3.0 197.2 194.2 29.9 open at depth
    —————————————————————————-
    DDH103-20 17.4 145.4 128.0 30.3 open at depth
    —————————————————————————-
    DDH103-34 29.6 182.0 152.4 30.1 open at depth
    —————————————————————————-

    The true widths of the reported core intervals are estimated to be between 90 and 100 percent of these intervals.

    Quality Assurance/Quality Control

    The samples from drilling were processed and assayed by SGS Canada Lab based in Lakefield, ON. The samples were assayed using XRF, Satmagan and Davis tube techniques.

    Alex Walus, PGeo., an employee of the Corporation and a qualified person pursuant to National Instrument 43-101, has reviewed and approved the technical and scientific information in this news release.

    For additional information please visit the Company’s website at cap-ex.ca.

    CAP-EX VENTURES LTD.

    Francois Laurin, President and CEO

    Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-looking Information

    This press release contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking information includes, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the future drilling programs and budgets, expected mineralization, permitting and title issues, and the interpretation of drill results. Generally, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, or “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. Forward-looking information is subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. There can be no assurance that such information will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking information, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.

    SOURCE: Cap-Ex Ventures Ltd.

    Cap-Ex Ventures Ltd.
    Investor Relations
    (604) 669-2279
    (604) 602-1606(FAX)
    info@cap-ex.ca
    cap-ex.ca

    Comment by Bert — January 26, 2012 @ 6:17 am

  2. For those who own SGC….From PG blog —

    This morning’s news release reporting more strong gold drill results from the Gupo Gold deposit once again demonstrates the impressive value of Sunridge’s deposits in Eritrea. Sunridge Management considers Gupo Gold secondary when compared to the other 3 deposits the company is developing, yet it has the potential offer early low cost gold production for the company similar to the way that Nevsun’s Bisha Mine has.

    The Gupo Deposit is including in the Prefeasibility study currently being conducted on the Asmara North Deposits, which also includes the world class Emba Derho copper-zinc-gold deposit and the high grade Adi Nefas deposit. The study is due to be complete in April.

    There are many junior mining companies out there that have been built around projects just like Gupo Gold, but in the case of Sunridge it is merely gravy. The company is expected to release updated NI43-101 resource estimates on Emba derho and Adi Nefas next week.

    Comment by Bert — January 26, 2012 @ 6:53 am

  3. Perfect timing for RBW intraday chart John, we are going higher today 🙂

    Comment by Martin — January 26, 2012 @ 7:53 am

  4. I agree with BMR, we seem to be on our way to, “happy days are here
    again”. Copper in particular, seems to be leading the way. The last
    time i looked, it was $3.90, i remember not to long ago,it was trading
    in the $3.30’s. R !

    Comment by Bert — January 26, 2012 @ 9:14 am

  5. HI Jon,

    Do you knows when the report from Moose Mountain will be public?

    Thanks!

    Comment by Martin — January 26, 2012 @ 1:44 pm

  6. Good day for RBW and impressive volume – strong bids now from .195 up – looking good
    ! Yes, Martin, the Moose Mountain report will be interesting, I think I’ll need to load up on RBW before it’s released. 🙂 Can’t get CEV right though, looks like it’s one to flip every time it goes up 2 cents! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — January 26, 2012 @ 2:02 pm

  7. Yes Andrew RBW charts is looking extremely bullish, with tomorrow we will probably see the strongest weekly volume ever wich is excellent(i wouldn’t be worried buying it on technical alone), plus this report could provide strong upside. I have been looking at CEV graph, imho some consolidation time will be required before it break up again.(now volume is low). Maybe you could switch stock to buy more cev eventually. Not to familiar with CEV fundamental.

    Bonne Chance!

    If you could send me L2 as of tonigh would be well apppreciated

    my email is martin.dagenais@mail.com

    Comment by Martin — January 26, 2012 @ 3:08 pm

  8. Level 2 on its way Martin (you’ll notice CIBC has a 100k bid at .195). Yes, CEV volume is too low and just being flipped. I could sell and increase my position in RBW – I’ll see what happens during the caffeine rush at the open – RBW starting to be overbought?
    Bonne Chance toi aussi!

    Comment by Andrew — January 26, 2012 @ 3:37 pm

  9. Hi BMR,
    Trueclaim announced a financing today, and most importantly that drilling will commence on its very interesting silver/copper/gold prospect in arizona. This property will be featured on bob moriarty’s 321 Gold web site shortly. He’s been on the property and loves what he see’s. This property could be a company maker….
    Very high level investor group in this financing.

    Trueclaim also plans a bulk sample on another interesting area of the 45 acre Scadding property in Ontario. Permit received in 2-3 weeks which is pretty damn good.

    BRM should make a call. Mr. Carter and Mr. Hamilton, project manager are in Arizona now looking at things and new ground, and are headed to Mexico after……….

    It’s a stock that should be on your radar………..

    George

    Comment by George — January 26, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  10. Correction, 45,000 acre Scadding Gold Property in Ontario.

    Comment by George — January 26, 2012 @ 4:14 pm

  11. RBW

    I wouldn’t be too optimistic on RBW just yet.. On Dec 7/11 they announced a P.P…
    On Jan 5/12, they announced the closing of the first tranche. Yesterday, they
    announced that the final tranche will close on or before Feb. 7/12. Taking
    2 months to collect 11/4 million dollars may be a negative, we all know how
    the market re-acts to negative perception, especially those days. Because
    the company felt a NR was warranted yesterday, would indicate an unexpected
    delay. Also, i feel the company won’t want the price to stray too far from
    0.15 until the financing is closed. I struggle to try to determine what others
    are thinking & it works sometimes. I now own 15K shares of RBW, 5K more than i
    expected to buy, 5K to sell if it moves up, 5K to sell if it continues
    up & 5K to sell if it continues to continue up. R !

    Comment by Bert — January 26, 2012 @ 4:36 pm

  12. Thanks for your thoughts/expertise, Bert and bringing that point to our attention – makes sense. HMG announced a financing this afternoon and the SP dropped to the financing level ($1.35) so I thought good, no hurry for an entry point and next thing it’s back to $1.50!

    Comment by Andrew — January 26, 2012 @ 7:08 pm

  13. Hi Jon and John what are the chances that RBW continues it trek upwards tomorrow? It is nearing overbought territory but with these kinds of stocks they can run quite a bit while in heavy overbought territory. Especially the ones that haven’t had their first big run yet. I think of Cadillac mining similar share structure and it ran from 5 cents to 50 cents in like a month.

    Comment by Ed — January 26, 2012 @ 10:14 pm

  14. Hi Ed, very hard to predict daily moves but RBW is certainly not wildly overbought from a technical perspective (I’m sure John would concur) and is underpinned by excellent support. You can’t even put this in the same category as Cadillac Mining – completely different situation. RBW has outstanding management and a strong board that understands the capital markets, how to build shareholder wealth and capitalize on opportunities. RBW is raising money and about to make things happen. It is not a one-month wonder. I fully expect this is going to continue to build and build throughout the year. There should be a tsunami of exploration data (43-101 compliant) this quarter from the work that both Rainbow and Braveheart have completed, as well as all the historical information. A little bit of that we already know – some of the very high sampling grades that Braveheart got back in 2008 (15 to 25 ounces of silver per tonne and 40% to 60% lead at the International) and the incredible grades from the past producing Ottawa Property (silver was mined at an average grade of approximately 2,000 g/t or 75 ounces per tonne for total production of 2 million ounces of silver in the 1900’s). There are a lot of moving parts to this exciting story and it’s just going to get better and better as the year progresses. Daily moves to me right now don’t matter – can’t wait to see where this could be later this quarter and further into the year, especially in a more robust overall market environment. It’s definitely a keeper IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 27, 2012 @ 3:55 am

  15. BMR – RBW is certainly not wildly overbought

    Bert – The above noted sentence is being used just because it reminds
    me of a true story.

    A male managed to open the outside door of this female’s apartment.
    She was sleeping at the time & of course, he got in bed & made some
    kind of love. She filed a complaint & when asked if she woke up while
    all this was going on. Her reply was, I WOKE UP A LITTLE BIT.

    Comment by Bert — January 27, 2012 @ 4:27 am

  16. Thank you, Bert, you’ve given all us a smile to begin the day!

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 27, 2012 @ 4:29 am

  17. I just read that Brent Cook’s trading account went down 37% last year and that Bob Moriarty’s account was down even more. I guess it puts me in good company. Onwards and upwards, gents.

    Comment by Carl — January 27, 2012 @ 8:28 am

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