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January 27, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold climbed as high as $1,727 this morning but has pulled back slightly…as of 5:45 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $3 an ounce at $1,723…Silver is up 8 cents at $33.55…Copper is 3 pennies higher at $3.89…Crude Oil has gained 53 cents to $100.23 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off one-fifth of a point to 79.30…

Barclays Capital stated yesterday that precious metals, paced by Gold breaking $2,000 an ounce by the third quarter, should lead the commodity sector in 2012 with 20% gains by the end of the second quarter and up 21% for the entire year…

CNBC’s Cramer made a very astute comment yesterday:  “We’ve got a huge disconnect between what people think is happening in this country and what’s actually happening,” he stated.   “I’m talking about the widespread misconception that our economy is in trouble, something that’s causing many of you to sit on the sidelines and miss out on some tremendous gains”…

Cramer is right.  The Financial Times reported this morning that North American industrial companies are predicting that the U.S. will be one of their big growth markets in 2012 for the first time since the start of the financial crisis, reflecting rising demand for everything from excavators to truck part…Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of earthmoving equipment, brushed off concerns about a possible slowdown in the global economy and said it expected real U.S. construction spending to increase this year for the first time since 2004…the upturn in demand in the U.S. was helping the manufacturer to experience its “best growth since Harry Truman was president”, said Mike DeWalt, head of investor relations…

While Caterpillar echoed concerns that policymakers could derail the recovery by prematurely tightening economic policies, the company said it expected the U.S. economy to pick up steam this year and added that “the risk of a worldwide recession has diminished significantly”… The vote of confidence in the U.S. was underscored by Eaton, the manufacturer of industrial equipment and components for trucks and aircraft, which said it expected its markets to grow faster in the U.S. than in the rest of the world for the first time since the mid-2000’s…

U.S. GDP figures just hit the wire at 5:30 am Pacific…the American economy grew at its fastest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter, but a strong rebuilding of stocks by businesses and weak spending on capital goods hinted at possible slower growth early this year…GDP expanded at a 2.8% annual rate in the 4th quarter, according to the Commerce Department, a sharp acceleration from the 1.8% clip of the prior three months and the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2010…it was, however, a touch below economists’ expectations for a 3% rate…

Dow futures as of 5:45 am Pacific are down 23 points…

The CDNX appears ready for a strong finish to January with a reversal as well in its 50-day moving average (SMA) by early next week…this is very significant and should propel the market higher in February…interestingly, the Venture is also now just slightly above its 1,000-day SMA where it was turned back in early November last year…that long-term moving average, which has been in decline since 2008, is expected to reverse to the upside in the second half of this year and that’s when this market could really go ballistic…

It’s a great time, we believe, to be bottom-fishing the top Yukon Gold plays in anticipation of a very busy exploration season up there which will kick into high gear late in the second quarter…Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM, TSX-V) is just one example of a quality situation that could deliver terrific gains for patient investors over the coming months…Kaminak is showing renewed strength and John updates the chart below…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in KAM.

Atac Resources (ATC, TSX-V), Golden Predator (GPD, TSX) and Radius Gold (RDU, TSX-V)  are just three other Yukon plays that are worth serious due diligence at the moment… Sandspring Resources (SSP, TSX-V) continues to look strong and yesterday it jumped 13 cents to $1.50…the SSP chart is pointing to additional near-term gains while the overall “big picture” with this play looks very promising…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in SSP.

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) continues to sizzle and touched 23 cents yesterday…Rainbow is shaping up to be a very exciting play and the upcoming geological report on the company’s properties from Moose Mountain should provide a lot of depth and technical back-up for the story…this is certainly one of the most interesting situations we’ve come across the last couple of years given the people involved, the land package that has been assembled, and the attractive capital structure…

11 Comments

  1. Hi Jon/ John,

    Any comments on the following stocks:

    1) GBB
    2) CQX
    3) GQC
    4) CUI

    Thanks

    Comment by Eric Benson — January 27, 2012 @ 7:39 am

  2. Hi Eric, I’d be happy to go into some detail on those….I’m tied up the rest of the morning but will reply sometime later today….

    Comment by Jon — January 27, 2012 @ 8:37 am

  3. BMR, Any comment on Trueclaim from my post yesterday???

    Comment by George — January 27, 2012 @ 9:25 am

  4. Abcourt announced yesterday … ‘The Dewatering of the Elder Gold Mine Will Be Completed in Two Months and a Revised 43-101 Resource Estimate Will Be Available Also in Two Months’. With one of there mines nearing production and strong volume could BMR post a chart and their assessment on the latest developments.

    Comment by Paul — January 27, 2012 @ 12:39 pm

  5. Hi Eric, here are my thoughts regarding your question:

    GBB: The potential of the LONG Bars Zone has not changed but GBB must restore the market’s confidence in its exploration program and strategy. If they’re successful in doing that, then GBB could have a great 2012 given the direction Gold is going.

    CQX: An interesting wave of buying Wednesday. CQX has to hope it exceeds expectations with drill results from their Gold project in Utah. I like the land package they assembled and the potential of it. Unfortunately, management’s ability to drive shareholder value is very suspect given the opportunities they had last year and how they simply dropped the ball. Valuable asset at Wasamac but they haven’t done anything with it.

    GQC: GoldQuest is back on track and should have a very solid 2012. Management is strong, though they need to invest more in getting their message out.

    CUI: Harold needs a new project, plain and simple. Results from Tanzania were disappointing, though Sekenke is still in the very early stages. Company has been around for a long time. I have faith they will come up with something and recover, so at 3 cents it’s an attractive bet with a lot more upside potential than downside risk. Good bottom-fishing opportunity IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 27, 2012 @ 6:54 pm

  6. Hi Paul, ABI has a great little asset in the Elder Mine and I’m expecting resources could double or triple from the previous estimate. John is preparing a chart for posting over the weekend. Of course the Silver property near Val-d’Or is a hot asset. Hinse is a problem, however – I really believe this company needs a new individual at the helm to fully unlock shareholder value. Potential takeover target which keeps me interested.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 27, 2012 @ 7:00 pm

  7. I like Trueclaim, though the dilution at 8 cents is unfortunate. Good entry level I believe, however, for patient investors.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 27, 2012 @ 7:04 pm

  8. I can only tell you that this financing is being done with an upper level group that are long term holders.
    Some big silver numbers in Arizona that detailed work is following up before drilling
    starts. Bulk sample at Scadding. Permitting was completed in 3 weeks.
    Things are starting to happen now and a SP lift is around the corner………..

    Comment by George — January 27, 2012 @ 9:43 pm

  9. Interesting to see how the sellers of RBW tried to push the share price down a couple of time this past week only to fail and the share price ended even on the day and then headed higher again. Fridays trading was another example of this. The sellers tried to push the price below .195 only to have the share price rebound to close the day at .21 cents. Could be headed for another move higher on monday or this coming week.

    Comment by Ed — January 28, 2012 @ 6:04 am

  10. RBW – Selling on Friday was controlled by Canaccord (63%) and Anon (25%) – a strong week with 1.9m traded on the venture (1.24m previous week)and closed up a penny. Hopefully, it will break through .24 when the financing is completed. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — January 28, 2012 @ 7:45 am

  11. BMR thanks for your thoughts on Abcourt. March looks like a month to unlock a number of potential prospects. From ABI, GBB and CEV.
    Again thanks for your assessment. Look forward to the charts.

    Comment by Paul — January 28, 2012 @ 9:36 pm

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