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February 17, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is steady this morning…as of 5:55 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $5 an ounce at $1,734…Silver is 7 cents higher at $33.59…Copper is down a penny to $3.79…Crude Oil is up another 46 cents to $102.77 while the U.S. Dollar Index is off marginally at 79.26…

Stock index futures as of 5:55 am Pacific are pointing toward a positive open on Wall Street…

Well-known investor Jim Rogers, CEO and Chairman of Rogers Holdings, gave some good advice on CNBC this morning…“If you listen to governments, then you are not going to make a lot of money…governments lie, distort and make mistakes…in 2012, we have elections and many governments pumping money into the economy, spending and printing money…it’s 2013-14 we have to worry about…my way of playing this is to own real assets like commodities”…

CDNX Surge In The Works?

The recent acceleration in global money supply is one of the driving forces in the markets right now, and that trend is likely to continue through much – if not all – of this year…in this kind of environment the Venture Exchange will always perform well…the CDNX chart took a dramatic turn in January and we believe it’s currently gearing up for another major move that will soon take it through resistance at 1675…it’s time, therefore, to lock in positions on the best quality plays and ride the coming wave…

On Tuesday the CDNX touched our initial downside target level of 1625, and yesterday it closed up 15 points at 1648…it seems increasingly likely that 1625 will hold as support…if it doesn’t, then 1565-1575 would appear to be the worst-case scenario…the bottom line is that the CDNX chart is showing a lot more upside potential than downside risk at the moment, so that’s why it’s important to be positioned properly at this strategic time…March has a chance to be a spectacular month with big volume finally coming back as well…only time will tell but we like the odds…below is a snapshot of the market’s technical condition right now…notice how the overbought RSI condition has unwound…

Don’t forget, U.S. markets are closed Monday for President’s Day and Canadian markets are also closed for Family Day…we’ll be posting our regular weekly review tomorrow with no postings Sunday or Monday due to the long weekend…next week we’ll be pulling a lot of things together from the first six weeks of 2012 and listing our “strong plays” and “watch list” for the balance of the first quarter and beyond…the speculative situation that we see having the most momentum going forward, technically and fundamentally, is Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) with a current market cap of only $6.9 million…this is a young company (listed just a year ago) that hooked up with some determined Alberta “cowboys” in a transaction with privately-held Braveheart Resources last fall, so Rainbow is now stamped with some Alberta AAA beef – watch out…RBW is a Gold and Silver explorer on the move and is now in the game with cash in its pockets and a terrific land package in southeastern B.C. to tell the world about and drill…

Arian Silver (AGQ, TSX-V) pulled back to support and is now in a Bullish Engulfing Pattern with the stock closing yesterday at 35 cents…it was a normal pullback from the recent high of 39 cents, and we hope some of our readers were able to take advantage of it…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in AGQ.

Golden Predator (GPD, TSX) looks very attractive at 62 cents and the company announced yesterday that it has entered into a purchase agreement with Alexco Resource Corp. (AXR, TSX) pursuant to which it will acquire a 100% interest in the Brewery Creek Project, subject to a 2% net smelter returns royalty in favor of Alexco…on closing, the purchase agreement will replace the existing Brewery Creek option agreement under which Golden Predator has the right to earn up to a 75% interest in the project, with Alexco having the right to buy back a 10% interest…Golden Predator will pay Alexco $4-million less the amount of the current reclamation bond posted by Alexco with the Yukon government (estimated at $795,000), issue 7.5 million common shares of the company and 3.75 million share purchase warrants…

We expect the Yukon plays, including GPD with its Brewery Creek Project, will heat up considerably this spring, so there are a lot of opportunities in that space…the Big Daddy up there, of course, is ATAC Resources (ATC, TSX-V) which has just bounced off its rising 20-day rising moving average (SMA) and is looking exceptionally attractive from a technical standpoint as John’s chart outlines…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in ATAC.

22 Comments

  1. Kinross Gold upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie. K.WT.D warrants expiring September 2014 could be good value.

    Comment by Alexandre — February 17, 2012 @ 6:14 am

  2. RBW

    I mentioned earlier that i felt RBW would move up today, the indicators
    are showing an uptick is possible. I forgot about the long weekend & am
    now wondering if possible buyers may hold off until next week. R !

    Comment by bert — February 17, 2012 @ 6:30 am

  3. Not sure they’re holding off, Bert, when u see 300,000 shares bid from .19 up…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 17, 2012 @ 6:34 am

  4. Jon

    I always want to be right, so i am trying to cover myself,
    by offering in advance, an excuse in case it don’t go up.
    Make sense ?

    Comment by bert — February 17, 2012 @ 6:48 am

  5. Hey jon, any thoughts on V.trr or V.gwy?

    Comment by jeff — February 17, 2012 @ 6:54 am

  6. We haven’t mentioned them in a while….I really like how GWY looks on the charts……perhaps John can chime in on that…it’s a very solid play and it will move higher I’m sure…TRR has pulled back toward support…..has to be an attractive entry point as well…….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 17, 2012 @ 6:59 am

  7. thanks!

    Comment by jeff — February 17, 2012 @ 7:00 am

  8. Hi Jeff
    GWY, since mid Oct.it has been consolidating in a horiz. channel between 1.40 and 1.70. It has low strength bullish up trend and is being accumulated(CMF is very bullish). RSI is steady at 51%. Wait for a break above 1.70 on high vol.

    Comment by John - BMR — February 17, 2012 @ 7:30 am

  9. BMR
    With the CDNX poised to make a run, and alot of good jr’s out there right now, it would be a great time to see a BMR top ten list. A list of companies with market caps of 300m max that in BMR’s opinion have the best chance to take advantage of the potential break out of the CDNX? You have mentioned a watch list coming this weekend?

    thx greg

    Comment by GREG H — February 17, 2012 @ 7:33 am

  10. BMR

    FYI
    a another newsletter writer recently started watching RIC, their chart predicts an acsending triangle pattern to $19.50.

    Last Update: If RIC stays above $11.00, then the range will be $11-$13. In any event we see at least six more weeks of consolidation before RIC can break through $13. This stock is headed higher but you will need some patience to wait out this consolidation.

    Will this bottom at $11 or a bit lower? In any event, we expect the consolidation to continue and have a bullish resolution. We expect that in late spring.

    Comment by GREG H — February 17, 2012 @ 8:35 am

  11. Thanks for the update john, it seems like the 1.48 mark seems to be a previous support so im in at GWY at this level. If you guys are correct on the TSx gaining steam in march im sure we could expect upside from these levels.
    Cheers

    Comment by jeff — February 17, 2012 @ 8:35 am

  12. IS sas.t the next 5 to 10 bagger. What our your thouhts

    Comment by gil — February 17, 2012 @ 10:18 am

  13. gil
    SAS certainly looks interesting from a technical view. This is the 4th attempt at a move upwards and the strongest. Next main resis. level is 65c. Perhaps more later.
    Thanx for the tip.

    Comment by John - BMR — February 17, 2012 @ 12:03 pm

  14. Great day for RBW. Buying pressure almost all day long. Slow and steady, we keep climbing.

    Comment by db — February 17, 2012 @ 3:40 pm

  15. RBW

    A total of approximately 700K RBW shares traded on the different Canadian markets today.

    Comment by bert — February 17, 2012 @ 5:49 pm

  16. I made a mistake in my calculations, total shares traded on 2 exchanges today was 345.5K., Sorry
    about that… Good night !

    Comment by bert — February 17, 2012 @ 5:54 pm

  17. I think we will see prices over 30 cents in 2 weeks, chart tells it all.

    Comment by Steve — February 18, 2012 @ 12:28 am

  18. It’s all fine and dandy that we’re making some money in the market, but suddenly an event comes along that reminds us just how precious life is and what’s really important. David Coffin has passed away suddenly. So our deepest condolences to his family, especially his best friend and brother Eric who partnered with him on the HRA Advisory. David was very respected in the mining industry (often spoke at conferences) and his insight, wisdom and knowledge will be greatly missed. Eric will continue with the HRA Advisory after a 2-3 week break, and that’s what David would have wanted.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 18, 2012 @ 6:04 am

  19. Hi Jon and John,

    Any news on Sidon/ Cameo Resources not out of yet? Any contact with management? Have a good weekend…

    Comment by Arjan — February 18, 2012 @ 6:34 am

  20. They have completed a rollback and a name change, so the next step is a cleaning up of the balance sheet including a financing, and get the shares trading again. I’m confident they will get back in the game. I will be attempting to contact management in the coming days for any additional info.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 18, 2012 @ 7:09 am

  21. I didn’t know David or Eric Coffin personally, but i sure knew of them as stock pickers.
    After reading of David’s death, it left me feeling sad & for sure, he will be missed
    by the investing community. My deepest sympathy to his family.

    Comment by Bert — February 18, 2012 @ 7:46 am

  22. Hi Jon,

    Hope to hear more when you’ve contacted management. It’s hard to get a hold of them. Have a good weekend…

    Comment by Arjan — February 18, 2012 @ 11:30 pm

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