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March 27, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is steady this morning with only some minor overnight profit-taking after yesterday’s sharp gains that took it to a two-week high…as of 6:00 am Pacific, the yellow metal is up $3 an ounce at $1,693…Silver is up 16 cents to $33.00…Copper is down 3 pennies to $3.86…Crude Oil has lost a dime to $106.93 while the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 79.01…comments yesterday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who hinted that more monetary stimulus could be on the way to boost the U.S. economy, lifted commodity and stock markets…Bernanke speaks again today beginning at 12:45 pm eastern at George Washington University in the third of four guest lectures…New York Fed President William Dudley also testifies at 10 am eastern before the House committee on the European sovereign debt crisis and the Fed’s role…

China – Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus On The Way

According to a report published by Goldman Sachs today, the Chinese government’s fiscal revenues in 2012 are expected to exceed budget estimates…that’s no surprise and it will put more money in the government’s hands to spend on projects that will support consumption, in turn giving a boost to the retail, consumer goods and energy sectors…the report says, “Fiscal revenues will likely beat the budget by around Yuan 500 billion ($79.3 billion)”…it also states that historically expenditures have exceeded budget estimates each year together with revenues…”Executing a more proactive fiscal policy is a core part of China’s 2012 economic agenda,” the report says…with low fiscal deficit as part of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011 and low government debt as part of GDP, we believe China has ample fiscal flexibility”…according to the report, the government’s 2012 fiscal deficit target is 2% of GDP, up from 1% in 2011 which indicates higher potential to spend on spurring a slowing economy…during the last financial crisis in 2008-2009, China announced a $586 billion stimulus plan to reignite its economy…

Updated Gold Chart- Bullish Inverted Head & Shoulders Formation?

We’ve written recently about the possibility of a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern forming in Gold, and that’s indeed what appears to be happening after recent trading action that took Gold down to a low of just under $1,630 last Thursday followed by an intra-day recovery Thursday and advances Friday and Monday…this chart that John has prepared this morning is truly quite amazing…expect Gold to meet resistance near-term at and just above $1,700, as John showed in his chart Sunday, but these patterns do take time to play out…us Gold bugs must be patient…however, the current chart is definitely very supportive of a move to a new record high in 2012 around $2,000 an ounce (Silver should outperform)…

CDNX Chart Update

The CDNX rebounded to close at its 10-day moving average yesterday, 1581, and the key will be to see some continued follow-through over the next week or so which would allow the Index to get back into the mid-1600’s to decisively and convincingly recapture bullish momentum…there are positive indications on the chart as John details below…


Focus Metals (FMS, TSX-V) enjoyed a powerful day yesterday, blasting through an area of resistance to close at $1.28 on total volume (all exchanges) of nearly 1.5 million shares…this should be an exciting year for FMSGold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V) may have finally put in an important low at 11 cents (this was a major resistance area in early 2010) after releasing an update on its Granada Gold Property…GBB reversed during the day and closed unchanged on total volume (all exchanges) of nearly 2.5 million shares…GBB is expected to release a NI-43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone by the end of this week, or early April, though this initial number will fall short of previous expectations in part due to the fact that only 70% of the holes drilled to date are being used in this calculation…there is no denying the incredible potential of the Granada Gold Property…as stated by GBB yesterday, “the overall potential strike length of Gold Bullion’s landholdings ranges from 10.1 to 13.6 kilometres with no exploration undertaken to date on the eastern Adanac extension”…Gold Bullion may indeed have a Malarctic-sized deposit but unfortunately the company has not followed the aggressive, quick and efficient Osisko (OSK, TSX) model of proving up a resource…in fact, GBB has demonstrated a lot of inefficiency in terms of its “ground game”…if Osisko sees the potential of the LONG Bars Zone, and rumor has it they’ve been following this story with some interest, then we speculate the time could be approaching when they may decide to swoop in and swallow up GBB at these seemingly attractive levels…Osisko and other companies would have the resources necessary to prove up a multi-million ounce deposit at Granada…

ATAC Resources (ATC, TSX-V)

Rest assured, especially with higher Gold prices, the Yukon will heat up this year and ATAC Resources (ATC, TSX-V) is the leader of the pack there…John continues to like what he sees in the ATAC chart…


Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in ATAC.



18 Comments

  1. When was that thing that RBW would have? This week?

    Comment by Steve — March 27, 2012 @ 8:17 am

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    Comment by db — March 27, 2012 @ 8:28 am

  3. Alright! Thanx!

    Comment by Steve — March 27, 2012 @ 10:55 am

  4. AGE – I wonder if there’s a P.P coming?

    Comment by Andrew — March 27, 2012 @ 10:58 am

  5. CAN, APE, LVN and VTR are at exceptional values. Add to your position if you haven’t already.

    Comment by Andrew M — March 27, 2012 @ 10:59 am

  6. bought some bza today .Seems very under valued .What does BMR think or comments from fellow investors

    Comment by gil — March 27, 2012 @ 11:27 am

  7. New out on VGN. Greencastle Options Base Metal Exploration Properties in Northwest Ontario. Things seem to be heating up with VGN Comments anyone?

    Comment by Chris — March 27, 2012 @ 12:43 pm

  8. I’m not a chart follower, but someone tell me that RGX daily low of .75, high of .89 and close of .80 (-.04) is a healthly correction….

    ~:>)

    Comment by Don — March 27, 2012 @ 1:35 pm

  9. Don – my take on RGX is that it was oversold and continued upwards to a new year high. The previous high was mid February last year and the left hand side of the cup that John mentioned in his chart last week. When it reached the high it was too oversold (RSI >80) and on all previous occasions this stock has retraced after reaching these levels. I’m sure there was profit taking because its had a great run. Where it goes from here I have no idea. It may form the handle (refer to John’s chart) which will reduce the oversold condition and set it up to move upwards again? I’m watching closely for an entry point. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 27, 2012 @ 2:19 pm

  10. Don – sorry! Overbought not oversold (there are so many oversold stocks!)

    Comment by Andrew — March 27, 2012 @ 2:21 pm

  11. age p.p???

    Comment by biggdave — March 27, 2012 @ 3:43 pm

  12. Oversold? Take a look at NGM. Updated 43-101 coming soon and at 24 cents imo is oversold or undervalued which ever way you want to look at it.

    Comment by Dan — March 27, 2012 @ 3:50 pm

  13. Thanks Andrew… i await the next leg up!!!!

    Comment by Don — March 27, 2012 @ 4:19 pm

  14. biggdave – that’s what I think. I should have realised something was up with the big volume last week. I’ve been waiting ages to take profit from AGE and each time it looks ready to move up it retraces!:) Previous financing was .45 I think. If there’s another one (maybe to finance exploration on their newly optioned properties?)I hope it’s similar and hard cash.

    Comment by Andrew — March 27, 2012 @ 5:16 pm

  15. Richmont Announces Results From a Preliminary Economic Assessment for Wasamac and Approves $15 Million Advanced Exploration Budget

    Comment by Marc — March 28, 2012 @ 4:52 am

  16. PEA Highlights:

    — Base case parameters: Gold price per ounce of US$1,300 or CAN$1,350
    using a CAN$ – US$ exchange rate of 1.04 (36-month trailing averages);
    — Potential mine life: 14 years
    — Throughput: 6,000 tonnes per day (“tpd”)
    — Average annual production: 140,000 ounces of gold (“Au ounces”)
    — Total life of mine recovered production: 1.75 M ounces of gold
    — Average life of mine cash cost: US$688 per ounce
    — Average operating costs of $46.15 per tonne.

    Comment by Marc — March 28, 2012 @ 4:52 am

  17. I guess the market did not like the Richmont news, wow down 85 cents

    Comment by Greg — March 28, 2012 @ 6:41 am

  18. Greg – I was surprised too. But look at SPM, seems that its the “sell on news” environment at present for Gold and Silver stocks. With mixed forecasts on where Gold is headed it’s only going to add to volatility. RIC looks like it’s screaming buy me! 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — March 28, 2012 @ 7:10 am

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