BullMarketRun   BullMarketRun.com

A Daily, Vibrant Voice Focused on Speculative Opportunities,
Commodities, and Economic & Political Trends Impacting
The Resource Sector & Equity Markets
 

"Market-Trouncing Returns Through Unbeatable
Technical & Fundamental Analysis of Niche Sectors"

July 27, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold touched a high of $1,630 (resistance) this morning but backed off a little after a slightly stronger than expected U.S. GDP report released at 5:30 am Pacific (consumers, however, spent at their slowest place in a year)…as of 6:25 am Pacific, Gold is firming up again and has gained $11 an ounce to $1,627…Silver is 17 cents higher at $27.71…Copper is up 4 pennies to $3.42…Crude Oil is flat at $89.45 while the U.S. Dollar Index continues to struggle and is down one-quarter of a point to 82.61…

Yesterday, comments by ECB President Mario Draghi (he told a conference in London that the ECB was “ready to do whatever it takes” to preserve the single currency – “believe me, it will be enough” – gave precious metals a major shot in the arm…this morning, the highly anticipated U.S. GDP number for the second quarter came in slightly above expectations at 1.5% (Gold bulls were hoping for a somewhat weaker number to enhance the chances of near-term action from the Fed)…however, given Draghi’s hugely significant remarks yesterday, what we could be about to witness in the very near future is global “shock and awe” from the central banks in an effort to alleviate the euro zone situation and kick-start the world economy…the ECB, in effect, could be about to give the Fed the “cover” it needs to act with a U.S. election just a few months away…Draghi’s words, without significant action to back them up, would actually be counterproductive…

Below is an updated Gold chart from John based on yesterday’s close…Gold has broken above its downtrend line in place since March but important confirmation of a breakout is required – that could come today…

Silver is also close to a confirmed breakout but still needs another push to the upside…the daily SMA-50 is a key level to watch…

On the flip slide of the precious metals equation, the U.S. Dollar Index appears – temporarily at least – to have topped out around 84…it does have a strong support band, however, between 81 and 81.40, just above a rising 200-day moving average (SMA)…the Dollar Index recovered slightly immediately after release of the GDP data but has headed south again…

TSX Gold Index

Higher Gold prices couldn’t come at a better time for Gold producers, many of whom are struggling with their balance sheets as evidenced by Barrick Gold (ABX, TSX) which reported a 35% decline in quarterly profit yesterday…it also warned that capital costs on one of its biggest growth projects would come in much higher than forecast…

The TSX Gold Index, which closed at 290 yesterday, is currently down 36% from its high of 455 last September (interestingly, the Venture Exchange by comparison is off 33% during the same period)…below is an updated chart from John on the TSX Gold Index which stopped yesterday at its daily EMA-20, an important resistance level to monitor…

Gold Index-Venture Exchange Comparison

For now at least, the Venture Exchange is following the lead of the TSX Gold Index…we’d prefer to see the Venture setting the pace, but that’s a situation that could develop in the coming weeks…


Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V)

John has one company chart to share this morning – Gold Canyon Resources (GCU, TSX-V), which recently closed a $15 million financing, continues to deliver strong results from its Springpole Project in northern Ontario…all indications are, the stock bottomed out in late April at $1 per share…it closed yesterday at $1.37 and appears to be gaining technical strength after enduring some heavy selling pressure…we don’t expect GCU to “blast off” just yet but it’s certainly worthy of keeping a close eye on…


Five months ago, Gold Canyon announced an updated NI 43-101-compliant resource estimate for Springpole which included an indicated mineral resource of 1.22 million ounces of Gold and 4.82 million ounces of Silver, and an inferred mineral resource of 2.45 million ounces of Gold and 11.58 million ounces silver (cut-off grade of 0.4 g/t Au)…tonnage and grades were reported as 30 million metric tonnes at 1.26 g/t Au and 5 g/t Ag for the indicated category, and 60 million metric tonnes at 1.27 g/t Au and 6 g/t Ag grams per tonne Silver for the inferred category…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in GCU.

36 Comments

  1. I asked the board their opinion on bgm about a week ago I thought it was cheap then take a look at the 5 day chart

    Comment by gil — July 27, 2012 @ 9:50 am

  2. Hi Gil

    There is resistance at 90c

    Comment by John BMR — July 27, 2012 @ 10:13 am

  3. Where is everybody today

    Comment by gil — July 27, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  4. Todays smile .MY foster son who is first nation scares me the way he sings o canada he sings O canada our home ( on ) native land

    Comment by gil — July 27, 2012 @ 11:32 am

  5. ASW and RBW Drill permit updates: Information from RBW and ASW was wholly unsatisfactory on this process, so I went straight to BC MEM:EX who were extremely helpful and quick!

    None of the properties are in Mountain Caribou recovery areas.

    ASW: • Kenville Mine / Anglo Swiss – application has been referred to First Nations and referral agencies. Due to the fact that there is a portion of the exploration area in a high archaeological area, the applicant has been requested to conduct an archaeological assessment of the area.

    There is not, as far as I know any permit application for Blu Starr and Chris Robbins did not offer any information of any value.

    RBW: • Gold Viking property / Rainbow Resources – application is in the referral stage. If no issues are raised permit should be issued by 2nd week of August.
    • International Property / Rainbow Resources – application is in the final referral stage. Permit should be issued next week.

    There is not any information on the permit for bulk sampling at Referendum – they require a permit for this.

    Very disappointing updates on this from RBW and those who promote them when it is publicly available. Maybe they would like to employ me. 🙂

    ASW are weighing their options for exploration at Blu Starr and Kenville, i am not expecting anything to happen with the markets the way they are and will exit my position in ASW

    Enjoy the weekend everyone 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — July 27, 2012 @ 12:51 pm

  6. Andrew
    It would have been a good post without the criticism.

    Comment by John BMR — July 27, 2012 @ 1:33 pm

  7. John – its like pulling teeth to get accurate info. The criticism may have a positive effect. You just criticised! 🙂 Have a good weekend anyway.

    Comment by Andrew — July 27, 2012 @ 1:44 pm

  8. 8. My point Andrew is you do not know how accurate your info is. It may not be any better than what we heard before near the beginning of July. I hope you are right but I am not going to bet on it. I will believe it when I hear RBW have received the permits….until then it is all a guess.

    Comment by John BMR — July 27, 2012 @ 2:08 pm

  9. John – I didn’t have to share the information. The information I have shared previously has proven to be accurate. This was dealt with by BC MEM:EX. I won’t say who but I trust it. I’m still working on further information but what’s the point in sharing it if that’s your feedback? Very disappointing. So it’s there for those that may appreciate it.

    Comment by Andrew — July 27, 2012 @ 2:15 pm

  10. Andrew

    Have a good weekend …Maybe, just maybe, we will have a good week next week and everyone will smile again.

    Comment by John BMR — July 27, 2012 @ 2:41 pm

  11. RBW – for those that may be interested I now have important and accurate information regarding the permit for bulk sampling at the Referendum property and also relevant info for Blu Starr. If anyone wants it let me know.

    Comment by Andrew — July 27, 2012 @ 2:49 pm

  12. ANDREW I SEE US ALL AS TEAM PLAYERS I FOR ONE APPRECIATE THE INFO YOU HAVE PROVIDED . I SEE YOU AS A DEDICATED MEMBER OF THE TEAM AND SELDOM OR PERHAPS NEVER HEARD OFF THE WALL COMMENTS FROM YOU.TOGETHER AS WE SHARE WITH ONE ANOTHER WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING IN THIS MARKET. I UNDERSTAND YOUR FRUSTRATION OF LACK OF INFORMATION FROM RBW.LETS HOPE BY NEXT WEEK PERMITS WILL BE IN PLACE AND WE WILL ALL FEEL BETTER

    Comment by gil — July 27, 2012 @ 4:07 pm

  13. I, too, thank you for your research Andrew, just as I thank the whole of BullMarketRun for everyone’s valuable inputs (even Joey The Troll, his over-the-top comments remind us all of how we must remain calm in the face of market uncertainties).

    So keep it up guys and let’s all make money next week!

    Comment by Muiyan — July 27, 2012 @ 4:28 pm

  14. I have read & inwardly digested the aforementioned chit chat, regarding the
    permits, and it leads me to believe that Rainbow was certainly not tuned in to
    the task at hand. I have called several times recently & certainly didn’t get the
    feeling that the procedure had to go through several referral stages, in fact,
    one of my most recent conversations, i was told, now that the Supervisor is back,
    it was anticipated that he would sign off on the permits promptly. By the way, when
    do a Supervisor go on vacation without relief. I often felt that something was just
    not right, in fact, i sold once. No way should bureaucrats hang up such a promising
    project, especially since Mr. Johnston was quoted as saying that the BC Government,
    never could entice anyone to take on the project(s) in that area, or something similar.
    Bearing that in mind, one would think the Government would have arranged the permits
    with very little delay, instead of waiting all summer. I have a strong feeling that
    along the way, Rainbow didn’t meet certain conditions put forth. I am not privy to the
    way the different systems work, but going back on this story since day one, i am left
    to wonder, ”WHO IS ON FIRST BASE”. Sorry John, but we, your followers, have to try
    to sort this out one way or another. Have you seen the ad ,”It’s our money and we
    want it now”. R !

    Comment by Bert — July 27, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

  15. Thanks for the info on RBW> Hope they are abl to issue the permits next week.This coming week should be good for traders. Both CSQ and GQC could be humming, check them out. richard 1

    Comment by richard l — July 27, 2012 @ 4:49 pm

  16. Its a shame that we let our brokerage accounts dictate our emotions instead of putting our faith where it should be… I am guilty too…

    Comment by greg — July 27, 2012 @ 9:21 pm

  17. NOTICE TO ALL BMR READERS:

    I am not a happy camper tonight. Effective immediately, ALL comments in this discussion forum will be subject to moderator review. Apart from discontinuing this forum altogether, which is another option, this is the only way to clean up the unfortunate and idiotic personal attacks that continue, despite my warnings, to infect this discussion group. This means that some postings will not be uploaded right away – it will depend on the moderator’s schedule. If the tone and content of the comments improves after a period of time, we will reinstate the automatic uploading of comments from APPROVED posters – ones who have not abused the system with attacks on others, spam, etc. If it helps, we are also considering a prize or some sort of recognition for the “Poster of the Month”.

    This afternoon, there were two comments submitted to this discussion group that were nothing more than insulting rants (by two non-regular posters) against two separate posters. Luckily, we were able to remove those comments almost as soon as they got automatically posted. As a result, around mid-afternoon, I immediately implemented additional comment approval procedures. There were some quirks in the system and some comments continued to appear automatically and some did not, which in turn led to some confusion. That problem has been fixed tonight but that required one of our people to return home early from a wedding. This is a free service, a courtesy. Our individual lives should not be inconvenienced to such an extent by rude people.

    I don’t know if this is a reflection of the bottom of a market, or just human nature in general, but I don’t like it. At BMR, we are blessed with many thoughtful and informative posters (Andrew, you are one of them) but all it takes are the actions of a few to ruin it for the rest. We ask all of you to think twice before you post. Encourage others – don’t discourage others. We live in an imperfect world. It’s easy to find fault in others and ignore our own faults. Try to love your neighbor, not run him or her down. There is so much negativity in the media these days – we don’t need to replicate that here. Greg said it well tonight when he wrote, “It’s a shame that we let our brokerage accounts dictate our emotions instead of putting our faith where it should be.”

    I truly hope that this weekend can represent a fresh start for this discussion forum. All of us have endured almost five months of very difficult market conditions. Companies have had to endure this too, which has not been easy for most of them, so understand that as well. We do believe the market is poised for a turnaround very soon – in fact, we could be in the beginning stages of that now. Let’s hope that’s the case.

    I wish everyone the best of luck in their investments. And I ask that you respect and be fair to others so we can help make this the best discussion forum it can possibly be, in order to make all of us more successful investors.

    Comment by Terry - BMR — July 27, 2012 @ 10:34 pm

  18. Terry – we are blessed with many thoughtful and informative posters (Andrew, you are one of them) but all it takes are the actions of a few to ruin it for the rest.

    Bert – There you go Andrew, you are one of us again, speak please ! It don’t take away
    from the fact that Andrew’s post(s) was/were deleted, but that’s their right i guess, but
    i would still like to know what our friend, was trying to tell us. I have thought over
    twice what i have written & about to write & i can’t stop now. I certainly don’t condone
    what others write at times, but i feel Andrew would never resort to personal attacks, so
    what was he trying to tell us ? I would class myself as being a half arse person & i will
    take my chance on being banned, but i have felt for sometime, that there’s something just
    not right about the permit delay & i have come to conclude, that all that glitters with
    RBW, may not be silver/gold. R !

    Comment by Bert — July 28, 2012 @ 2:40 am

  19. Andrew, any info you can share on Referendum would be greatly appreciated…

    Comment by db — July 28, 2012 @ 4:57 am

  20. I hope this isn’t considered spam but I urge you all to take a look at AOX.V early next week. I am still below my average but Friday was a good day with average volume and a 3cent spike. Chart seems to be pulling out of downtrend but charts are not my forte. Sentient has bought over 600k in the month of July alone. There has been talks of a JV on their Trixie property in Nevada( we all know the recognition Nevada has been getting lately) but don’t hold your breath on that, it’s been it the works for months. There should be assays from their Sun property on a bi-weekly basis as they are submitting a hole a week to the lab with the first hole out on the 18th. Shares outstanding is a little high (110mil) but they are good on cash for the season and have a couple wild cards such as a 400+ year water supply at approximately 12k gallons a minute on their Burgin property in Nevada. I have a buddy who is close with a broker on this one and he is calling for 50c before summers out. This is just speculation though so take it with a grain of salt. Again I hope this doesn’t get me in trouble with the board and I am just trying to help us all make some money….

    Comment by db — July 28, 2012 @ 6:23 am

  21. Agree with no personal attacks. Positive and negative views on the markets is what actually makes a market. Lets hope pessimistic views are not deleted to pave the way for eternal optimism

    Comment by OldMan — July 28, 2012 @ 6:26 am

  22. Bert: There were two posts that were deliberately deleted. Both were rude rants (one that brought up your name actually). Following that, additional internal controls were put in place on moderating comments. As it turned out, some posters’ comments still got automatically posted while others’ weren’t. That problem was fixed last night. This had nothing to do with anything Andrew had submitted and we apologize for the confusion. No one was in a position to manually address the issue for several hours. End of story. Enjoy the weekend, or the Olympics.

    Comment by Terry - BMR — July 28, 2012 @ 6:33 am

  23. Terry

    Thanks for that ! I will fight back the next time i am verbally attacked. Maybe
    someone from Stockhouse, upset with a past pick of mine & may i add, i have always
    used my given name, even on Stockhouse. If it was good enough for my parents, it
    surely is good enough for me. I will continue to bring forward stock picks, but i
    will not press the submit button for anyone. Anyway, i am after that prize you are
    offering & am fantasizing as i type, a trip around the world maybe ?

    Comment by Bert — July 28, 2012 @ 7:21 am

  24. db – I am happy to share the information I have attained with you and others who are interested. Please do not cross post to other boards. The information is as accurate as it can be, given the source. This information is publicly available so even though some companies may prefer it not to be available it does give us something to work from and perhaps put forward questions to the companies. Basically anything we need to know about permit applications and their current status is available from BC MEM and although this is a government department and I anticipated delays, they were, in fact, extremely efficient and helpful. What I have been trying to attain, unsuccessfully, from companies that I have holdings in for the past two weeks was resolved in a matter of hours from the government! Please, however, do not bombard the BC MEM with calls and questions to confirm as that will just result in turning off their cooperation for another time.

    The following is from the RBW news release of 31st May indicating that they are proceeding with a permit application for surface bulk sampling at Referendum:

    “TORONTO, ONTARIO, May 31, 2012 – Rainbow Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE:
    RBW) (“Rainbow” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that the Company is
    proceeding with a permit application for a surface bulk sample of up to 10,000 tonnes at
    its Referendum Property near Nelson, B.C., part of the 12,700-hectare Big Strike Project.”

    As shareholders and with no subsequent exploration update, I think it would be reasonable to assume that RBW two months after this NR would have acted and proceeded with the permit application. The fact is that although RBW may say “its in the works” as of Friday evening there had been no permit application submitted, so don’t expect any bulk sampling anytime soon.

    Comment by Andrew — July 28, 2012 @ 7:55 am

  25. I don’t know if this is a reflection of the bottom of a market, or just human nature in general – both Terry .. both… this movement of human nature is evident everywhere … when a portfolio gets cut in half in 45 daze, one may tend to get bitchy because they have lost perspective!! good work re the moderation…

    Comment by Jeremy — July 28, 2012 @ 7:56 am

  26. AOX – thanks for the thoughts on this play, db. I was looking at SPY on Wednesday morning, sitting at a year low and bids at 0.015. It was at .05 on Friday, you probably noticed it because it became one of the volume leaders all three days. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — July 28, 2012 @ 8:07 am

  27. Do you have any thoughts about gbb?

    Comment by mike — July 28, 2012 @ 8:11 am

  28. Good work, Andrew, thank u…this jives in general with what we’ve been able to determine over the last few weeks, that the International permit is coming by around month-end at the latest, or sometime likely next week as you say, followed by Gold Viking…this certainly is reassuring…the permitting process in general in B.C. can get quite confusing and frustrating (they require higher staffing levels at the ministry) and I’ve had several individuals from different companies tell me that, so I believe that’s why RBW has just been waiting for the permits to be issued while MMTS does what it needs to do…for us investors, I know things can never come quick enough but patience is the name of the game…could RBW have communicated more effectively as you mentioned?…perhaps so, I won’t argue with you on that, but my experience in life is that things are never as easy as they seem to be, and it’s always so easy to be critical…with regard to the Referendum Property, we all know RBW has major plans for that including a bulk sample…getting the International and Gold Viking to the drilling stage are obviously the #1 priorities…in fairness to RBW, they stated they were proceeding with a bulk sample permit – just 2 months ago…but never provided exact timelines or other important details…and if you look at their corporate presentation, the bulk sample isn’t even in there yet…there are obviously steps required to ensure that a bulk sample permit, like a drilling permit, is submitted properly…and there could be new information they’ve come across that looks interesting and could change the dynamics…I saw the Referendum on the late June site visit, and the eastern part of the property is absolutely perfect for an open-pit operation, but I’ve held off on writing about this as what’s critical at the moment are the International, Gold Viking and Jewel Ridge…those will be the situations that will drive shareholder value over the next 2 months…that’s what investors care about right now, especially the International…..the Referendum and the graphite properties will start to drive value later on and provide some positive surprises I’m sure….in a way I’m happy it has taken the ministry a little longer than expected to issue the permits as I suspect the overall market – and Gold and Silver – are turning the corner into a much more positive phase during this third quarter…….bodes well…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — July 28, 2012 @ 9:08 am

  29. Mike – My thoughts are, 8c is a price people will look back on in the future and kick themselves for not buying. Price can only go against fundamentals for so long. Maybe it was the hedge funds “long gold, short miners” trade that brought about the silly valuations we are seeing in the sector but this trade has surely been played out. When this reverses, and I think we are very close, the upside will be rapid and huge.

    Comment by Rosco — July 28, 2012 @ 9:15 am

  30. anyone still holding CEV?

    Comment by OldMan — July 28, 2012 @ 11:30 am

  31. OldMan – Anyone still holding CEV?

    Bert – I am & i intend holding. R!

    Comment by bert — July 28, 2012 @ 5:41 pm

  32. Yes my wife holds CEV. At over$1.00 per share. richard l

    Comment by richard l — July 28, 2012 @ 7:20 pm

  33. Oldman – I brought CEV to you readers last October at .35 by way of my best contact in Canada. An uncanny multi-millionaire who is near 100% right and only buys maybe twice a year. I have received a call from him on Wednesday. He said that CEV is continueing to develop the size of the project, but the iron ore price drop along with the news on LIM on 07-03-12 is not helping things. He said the overall market has also taken its toll on CEV. Continue to use TA and play the charts (my gut feeling is best by looking at the chart)and play the stock for gains when the opportunity arises. Disclosure: I am not currently in CEV.

    Comment by dave — July 28, 2012 @ 8:16 pm

  34. Richard, sorry to hear that for now. My contact was right as CEV did a 4 bagger from the .35 level. If you look back to last years chart, it did a strong move to .35 off its .25 low with much more room to run from its highs. My advice has always been to buy low-sell high. Cheers

    Comment by dave — July 28, 2012 @ 8:36 pm

  35. Hey Dave… hope you feel sorrry for me too:)

    Comment by Jeremy — July 29, 2012 @ 7:57 am

  36. Thanks Dave. My wife can hold it for years if necessary. I sold toinvest in rbw so we shall see. richard l

    Comment by richard l — July 29, 2012 @ 9:24 am

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

  • All Posts: