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August 24, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold is pulling back slightly after seven straight gains…as of 6:20 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down just $1 an ounce at $1,669 after falling as low as $1,662 overnight…Silver has recouped its overnight losses and is now essentially unchanged at $30.56…Copper is flat at $3.46…Crude Oil has reversed and is now up 19 cents at $96.46 while the U.S. Dollar Index has gained one-quarter of a point to 81.63…

Gold Demand Triggers Opening Of Major New Vault

The Brink’s Co. (BCO, NYSE) which stores and transports bullion, is set to open one of the world’s largest precious metals vaults in the London area within the next month, at a time when investors’ Gold holdings are at a record…the firm plans to open the facility with a major London clearing company and is considering opening another vault next year, according to the U.K. managing director for Brink’s…the vault will be able to hold a “very substantial” amount of metal according to the report from Bloomberg…

Republican Party To Re-Examine Gold Standard

The Gold standard has returned to mainstream U.S. politics for the first time in 30 years, with a “Gold commission” set to become part of official Republican party policy according to a Financial Times report…drafts of the party platform, which it will adopt at a convention in Tampa Bay, Florida, next week, call for an audit of Federal Reserve monetary policy and a commission to look at restoring the link between the dollar and Gold…the move shows how five years of easy monetary policy – and the efforts of congressman Ron Paul – have made the once-fringe idea of returning to Gold-as-money a legitimate part of Republican debate…the proposal is reminiscent of the Gold Commission created by President Ronald Reagan in 1981, 10 years after Richard Nixon broke the link between Gold and the dollar during the 1971 oil crisis…that commission ultimately supported the status quo…some analysts were quick to throw cold water on the latest rumblings from the Republican Party on a possible return to the Gold standard…“I think it’s absolutely nonsensical,” Moorad Choudhry, head of treasury at the corporate banking division of the Royal Bank of Scotland told CNBC this morning…“There’s a very good reason they unhooked it in 1971, because their deficit didn’t enable them to maintain it with the supply of Gold…in fact, is there enough gold in the world to back the U.S. debt?”…U.S. federal debt grew to $15 trillion at the end of 2011 from around $400 billion in 1971…

Today’s Markets

The Chinese stock market has slumped to levels last seen near the depths of the global financial crisis as fears build about waning economic growth (manufacturing surveys from China and the euro zone depicted a bleak outlook) and some uncertainty reigns over the prospect for central bank support from Beijing and Washington…the Shanghai Composite fell 21 points or 1% overnight to 2092, its lowest close since March, 2009…European shares are off mildly this morning while stock index futures in New York as of 6:00 am Pacific are pointing toward a slightly negative to flat open on Wall Street…speaking separately over the past day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, regarded as a policy centrist, played down chances of imminent easing to bolster the U.S. economy, while Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, a policy dove, supported taking more action… neither official has a vote on the Fed’s policy-making committee…meanwhile, the American Association of Individual Investors said yesterday that poll respondents are now 41% bullish, the first break above the long-term average of 39% since March…

Venture Exchange

The Venture Exchange was in negative territory most of yesterday but staged a late-day comeback that took it to its third straight positive day, a modest 2-point gain to 1248…the Index is currently up 15 points for the week after a 42-point jump the previous week…the 50-day moving average (SMA) has flattened out at 1200 and could begin reversing to the upside as early as next week…the 50-day has been in decline for most of the time since the bear market began in March, 2011 – the only exception being the February-March period this year…

China Confronting A Glut?

The New York Times is reporting that after three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its newly struggling economy: a huge buildup of unsold goods that is cluttering shop floors, clogging car dealerships and filling factory warehouses…the glut of everything from steel and household appliances to cars and apartments is hampering China’s efforts to emerge from a sharp economic slowdown…it has also produced a series of price wars and has led manufacturers to redouble efforts to export what they cannot sell at home…the severity of China’s inventory overhang has been carefully masked, according to the Times, by the blocking or adjusting of economic data by the Chinese government – all part of an effort to prop up confidence in the economy among business managers and investors…but the main non-government survey of manufacturers in China showed yesterday that inventories of finished goods rose much faster in August than in any month since the survey began in April, 2004…the previous record for rising inventories, according to the HSBC/Markit survey, had been set in June…May and July also showed increases…

U.S. Dollar Chart

The U.S. Dollar Index has been under pressure recently but it is now within a support band between 81 and 81.5…RSI(14) is also at support on the 6-month daily chart, so it’s quite possible we could see the greenback rally somewhat from current levels as Gold catches its breath after a substantial run-up recently…any advance in the Dollar Index, however, could be constrained by a downtrend line on the chart as shown by John below…if the support band doesn’t hold, then look for Gold to explode much higher…


Mineral Mountain Resources (MMV, TSX-V)

Yesterday we mentioned a new company, Mistango Resources (MIS, TSX-V) which is worthy of our readers’ due diligence (more on Mistango next week), and this morning we’d like to put forward Mineral Mountain Resources (MMV, TSX-V) as its chart and recent news have caught our attention…at the end of May this year, Mineral Mountain announced it had struck a deal with a 120-year old private mining company (Holy Terror) that owns 14 patented mineral claims and 22 unpatented mineral claims totalling 532 acres (215 hectares) located along the Homestake Gold belt in the Keystone Mining District in the Black Hills area of South Dakota…MMV has an option to acquire up to a 75% interest in the Holy Terror property, consisting of six former high-grade producers, and since then MMV has expanded the project by acquiring the 190-acre Bullion Mine Property from privately-held Energy Fuels Corporation…Bullion Mine adjoins the Holy Terror property and is another past producer…it appears MMV has consolidated a very attractive land package and has also just completed a remote sensing airborne light detection and ranging (Lidar) survey, and a high-resolution helicopter-borne tri-axial magnetometer survey over the area – never before conducted over this Gold district…

Technically, MMV is showing a lot of strength though it will need good volume to churn through 90 million outstanding shares…the stock closed up 2.5 cents yesterday at 26.5 cents…below is a 2.5-year weekly MMV chart from John…

GoldQuest Mining (GQC, TSX-V) Chart Update

Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V) Update

Prodigy Gold (PDG, TSX-V) continues to build an impressive resource at its Magino Gold Project in northern Ontario (nearly 6 million ounces)…higher Gold prices and a better environment for the junior sector over the balance of the year would be very bullish for PDG which has a healthy balance sheet and a positive overall chart with a supporting rising 500-day moving average (SMA) at 57 cents…currently, however, PDG is at or near resistance and will likely need to consolidate its recent gains for at least a brief period…PDG closed down a penny yesterday at 67 cents…

Note: Jon holds a share position in GoldQuest Mining.

35 Comments

  1. RBW – Holes drilled? I am predicting at least 6 holes drilled at the International by now. Lets say they are averaging 120 meters per hole, that would be approximately 720 meters of drill core pulled if there weren’t any technical problems along the way.

    Comment by Dan — August 24, 2012 @ 6:21 am

  2. ANON did a great job of breaking support, which means we slide back down to 20 unless news propels this higher. Trend is definitely up but boy oh boy is ANON becoming a pest – limitless paper and selling has become incessant.

    BMR, is ANON necessarily the same person or is it just a way to categorize the seller? If it is the same person, the fair assumption here would be that this is an insider with a huge share position. Highly unlikely that a retail investor would have close to a million shares to dump.

    Thoughts?

    Comment by alex — August 24, 2012 @ 8:31 am

  3. alex, try more like 2million since august 1st alone.

    Comment by db — August 24, 2012 @ 8:34 am

  4. Alex, I’ve said this before…..I remember back in December and January, ANON was an aggressive seller in the teens….everyone was terrified in May when they were dumping at .15-.16….as long as ANON is selling, I’m happy – because they’ve been a poor indicator of the trend……no support has been broken.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2012 @ 8:35 am

  5. anon is a pest all over the map,im holding till he gets bored,not getting my cash,rbw/ its like waiting for your first child,news will come,be patient.

    Comment by tom — August 24, 2012 @ 8:56 am

  6. RBW’s MacD histogram is currently in the red and buying pressure has dried up. MacD is now below the signal line (bearish). RSI is at 56.64 and pointing down. Slow stochastic Oscillator has also turned negative and parabolic SAR is about to flip to above the candle chart which is another bearish move. Unless we get drill results (and not fluff news about issuing news releases) rbw will head back to low 20’s high teens.

    Comment by Tony T. — August 24, 2012 @ 8:58 am

  7. Furthermore, rbw has had one green day in the last 10 trading days.

    Comment by Tony T. — August 24, 2012 @ 8:59 am

  8. News out !

    Comment by bert — August 24, 2012 @ 9:07 am

  9. News;

    Drilling Underway at Rainbow’s International Silver Property
    (via Thenewswire.ca)
    TORONTO, ONTARIO, August 24, 2012: Rainbow Resources Inc. (TSX VENTURE: RBW) (“Rainbow” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that a Phase 1 diamond drilling program at the Company’s 100%-owned International Silver Property in southeastern British Columbia is reaching targeted depths of 100 to 130 metres, intersecting highly deformed quartz-mica schist/gneiss as expected. Initial drilling is focused on an exposed quartz dominated structure featuring disseminated to massive galena, pyrite and rare sphalerite. Drill core is being logged, split and sent in for assaying using multi-element analysis in testing for silver, gold, lead and zinc mineralization.
    The number of drill site locations is being increased and an additional drill program update will follow in the near future. Moose Mountain Technical Services, Rainbow’s resource consultants, are overseeing this first-ever drill program at the International Property.
    The exploration target at the International is a high-grade, near-surface silver deposit.
    For further information: President David W. Johnston – (403) 701-2781.
    Visit our website at RainbowResourcesInc.com
    Qualified Person
    Rainbow’s disclosure of a technical or scientific nature in this news release has been reviewed and approved by Mr. Robert Morris, P.Geo., of Moose Mountain Technical Services, who serves as a Qualified Person under the definition of National Instrument 43-101.
    About Rainbow Resources

    Comment by Tony T. — August 24, 2012 @ 9:09 am

  10. Looks good, appears they’re hitting the structure…….Moose Mountain is increasing the number of drill locations…….excellent.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2012 @ 9:09 am

  11. Wonder if they are able to post some pics on their website?

    Comment by Dan — August 24, 2012 @ 9:36 am

  12. It seems that the market didn’t find the news to be interesting enough. Somebody wants out thats for sure

    Comment by Kalkan - Sweden — August 24, 2012 @ 9:57 am

  13. BMR,,,, Would you consider posting a chart on a silver prospect,,,BBB….Would be much appreciated,,,,As a silver play it resembles RBW,,,,,,Thanks in advance Henri

    Comment by Henri — August 24, 2012 @ 10:05 am

  14. It’s a Friday and Venture volume is light today. A lot of investors won’t even see this until the weekend. Watch RBW build nicely next week as this starts to sink in a bit. Early drilling is definitely more than encouraging, and Moose Mountain certainly wouldn’t be adding drill site locations if they weren’t seeing good stuff. Very businesslike news release, straight goods and no hype which tells me they are right on track with this. I don’t think we could have asked for a better update IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2012 @ 10:35 am

  15. @ Alex

    Alex, this is what i mean when i say you do not know what you are talking about.

    ANON is not one person – it is a range of unindentified sellers/buyers.

    Comment by Steve — August 24, 2012 @ 10:55 am

  16. Just spoke to a third party geo who believes this news is far more significant than what the market has picked up on in the first couple of hours. Will have more over the weekend in our updated report, but it looks like RBW has intersected exactly what they were looking for – rocks from the Horsethief Creek Group, highly deformed which indicates pressure and heating action. I suspect they’re adding new drill locations because what this could be is indeed a multiple vein system that they are targeting. We could see a big run in RBW next week once some smart people wrap their hands around this. Wake up, folks, u might be chasing this at .30 or higher in a week.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 24, 2012 @ 11:01 am

  17. Anyone had a look at SVL lately? Silvercrest is showing promise going into the fall. BMR did a chart on it once… perhaps it’s time to re-examine?

    Comment by Tim — August 24, 2012 @ 12:49 pm

  18. ABI starting to stir, volume up.

    Comment by Hugh — August 24, 2012 @ 2:08 pm

  19. Jon, your post #16 is too funny.

    Comment by dave — August 24, 2012 @ 9:43 pm

  20. Jon – Just spoke to a third party geo who believes this news is far more
    significant than what the market has picked up on in the first couple of hours

    Bert – This is gang up day on Jon folks & i do agree with Dave, that his post,
    part of which i have copied & posted above, is too funny. The news did not
    move the stock, in fact it went down before it closed even & i assume there
    were many third party GEOs’ watching & many others, who were not inclined
    to bid our stock up. Anyway, i don’t really get a good feeling, even being a
    little negative, so i will state, better days ahead. R !

    Comment by Bert — August 25, 2012 @ 7:08 am

  21. That’s ok, Bert, I don’t mind taking a shot, even from my friend! The proof will be in the pudding. Anyway, with regard to your point about bidding the stock up, it’s important to point out that this news came out on a rather sleepy Friday with Venture volume the lowest it has been all week. I suspect a lot of investors took part of the day off. In fact, even here at BMR, our comments section was very quiet yesterday. So I think it’s fair to say this didn’t circulate around a lot. Still, if you noticed the trading over the last hour and a half, the offers were all being taken out at .23 and .24 which showed some people were waking up. This was good news and I believe we’ll see things build nicely into early September. The biggest risk any company takes in putting out news is a sell-on-news effect (no matter how good the news is) which didn’t occur with RBW yesterday. It held its ground, so I think that’s very positive. On just about every occasion over the last several months, every time RBW has put out news, the stock has dropped slightly – even the day they announced the International drilling was about to start. I remember that day well. We had a number of posters here who couldn’t figure out why the stock would move down that day, and they were becoming nervous nellies. I said relax, this will build. I say that again. By the way, the third party geo is my cousin who’s a geologist for a company (Simon Ridgway group) in the Yukon. I trust his advice. He’s been a geo for over 30 years and is one of the most respected in the Yukon. See you north of .30 the week of Labour Day, IMHO of course.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 25, 2012 @ 7:20 am

  22. Jon

    You know i like teasing & we, your subscribers, seem to have all the answers,
    to counter the arguments put forward, so here goes. I will take for an example,
    a stock that you have shares in, GQC, on that sleepy Friday you referred to, was
    up 0.14 on almost 21/2 million shares, which tells me, everyone wasn’t asleep.
    I realize you want RBW to perform more than anything, but it’s elementary my
    friend, the financing in particular, has to be completed & closed, before our
    stock moves in a significant way, unless of course, we get significant drill
    results. The market is such these days, that everyone is thinking & saying, that
    small companies won’t be able to raise cash & may i ask, why are they not
    thinking the same about our RBW. No trouble to use up cash drilling & now is
    the time to let the market know, that cash will not be a problem. I can cite
    other factors, but i’ll store them for a future narrative. This is not about
    the Calgary flames, it’s about mining, it’s about gathering in cash to
    drill, drill, drill & guess what ? the combination of cash & drilling will do
    the talking & don’t forget the shareholders, who, when the story becomes
    compelling, will be tripping over themselves to disseminate Rainbow’s story.
    I don’t consider myself as being stock market savvy, but i do know, when a stock
    goes up, it is positive, when it goes down, it is negative, when it marks’ time,
    it’s got uncertainty written all over it… R !

    Comment by Bert — August 25, 2012 @ 8:05 am

  23. When I talked to pierre on Thursday he said there would be a news on Friday that happened.He also said there would be another release on wed with one or two surprises in it anyone here care to speculate on what the surpises will be Just for the fun of it ill say a increase in land holdings

    Comment by gil — August 25, 2012 @ 9:14 am

  24. Just for the fun of it checking back on our estimates of the closing stock price of rbw on friday WE were all a little high

    Comment by gil — August 25, 2012 @ 9:22 am

  25. Why is it always assumed that a company is adding drill locations cause they like what they see. I’m of the view sometimes that they are adding more locations cause they haven’t found anything yet.

    Comment by OldMan — August 25, 2012 @ 9:33 am

  26. OldMan, maybe cause they said they found what they were looking for, which warranted more drill holes?
    “A Phase 1 diamond drilling program at Rainbow’s International Silver Property in
    southeastern British Columbia is reaching targeted depths of 100 to 130 metres,
    intersecting highly deformed quartz-mica schist/gneiss AS EXPECTED”

    Comment by db — August 25, 2012 @ 10:29 am

  27. Yes, OldMan, but mineralization at the International is hosted in quartz-mica schists, which is exactly what they have reported they are intersecting. They aren’t about to waste money drilling into cow pasture, so the fact they’re expanding the drill site locations has to be regarded as a positive development (and an important signal to the market). Bert brought up a good point, I think. Rainbow has a lot of plans in terms of property exploration – that obviously requires money, so we should certainly expect RBW to raise more down the road here which would be another positive development. This is a solid group and IMHO they will accomplish whatever needs to be accomplished on that front. This stock is up 50% for the year vs. a decline right now of 15% for the Index, so that says a lot right there. The company is moving the ball forward in the right way. And so far, so good at the International. I’m expecting a powerful move in September.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 25, 2012 @ 10:30 am

  28. RBW is not up 50% for the year. That is a distortion of the truth. RBW is up 50% from its recentlow. It’s high for the year is .29

    Comment by dave — August 25, 2012 @ 10:53 am

  29. Dave, you’re incorrect, I’m sorry. The stock finished 2011 at 16.5 cents. It closed Friday at 24 cents. Year-to-date, RBW is up 45%. Yes, it is down slightly (19%) from its February high of 29.5 cents. It’s up 78% from its recent low, not 50%. How many Venture stocks at the moment are up almost 50% year-to-date?

    Comment by Jon - BMR — August 25, 2012 @ 11:03 am

  30. Old man how old are you .Do you remember when Eatons was Canadas largest department store .Do you remember the Eatons catalogue that served as a door stop once it was out of date or it found its way into the outhouse where it found its final end but the free press weakly was the first choice.Do you remember a time before tv a time without a telephone a time cooking on a wood and coal stove. bathing in a tub filled with warm water off the stove and us kids took turns bathing in it DO you remember your dad starting the car with a hand crank.Do you remember your dad talking about the dirty thirtys earning just room and board and warned that these times were about to return do you remember when the strap was used in school.Do remember when preachers policemen teachers etc were beyond reproach if not maybe your not old

    Comment by gil — August 25, 2012 @ 11:18 am

  31. have to agree with jon,looking at the 3 month chart i see an nice upward trend 3rd week in june to now,with results,we may be chasing as he says.

    Comment by tom — August 25, 2012 @ 11:41 am

  32. Regarding ABI: PEA release is on schedual for the end of the month, private placement was announced at 0.10, increasing price of silver and volume of the stock is showing some major interest. Plus the Elder mine is still being d-watered with infrastructure being placed and machinery on the sidelines.

    I don’t own any ABI but its shaping up to be something I might dive into before/during the news release, depending on how the market is playing. Do you DD guys, if anybody has any more info on ABI that they think I should know, good or bad, let me know please!

    Cheers!

    Comment by Trevor — August 25, 2012 @ 12:46 pm

  33. Only 55 million traded on Friday, lowest volume in 13 trading sessions.

    Comment by Tony T. — August 25, 2012 @ 1:05 pm

  34. I forgot to mention in my above post I was referring to the TSX Venture.

    Comment by Tony T. — August 25, 2012 @ 1:07 pm

  35. Old man hasn’t made a positive post yet. Always the same negative crap.

    Comment by Heath — August 26, 2012 @ 6:40 am

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