Gold continues to be under some pressure this morning after yesterday’s plunge to a 3.5-month low and below a support level at $1,675…as of 7:05 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $5 an ounce at $1,666, $1 below it’s 200-day moving average (SMA)…there’s certainly no need to panic in our view but it’s possible Gold could soon test another next major support level which is around $1,640…however, it’s still up 7% for the year and on track for its 12th consecutive annual gain…reasons for weakness this month include uncertainty regarding the U.S. “fiscal cliff” and year-end “window dressing” by some major funds (December was also a rough month last year for Gold when it fell 10% and that turned out to be a fabulous buying opportunity despite claims that Gold’s long bull run had finally ended) at a time when trading is typically thin which can exaggerate moves in either direction…
Due to the upcoming Christmas holidays, we’re now on an abbreviated schedule at BMR through December 31…we’ll have postings each market day as usual, but they’ll be shorter…there will be no Week In Review And A Look Ahead this weekend but this regular feature will return December 29…
Silver is off 41 cents at $31.23…Copper is down 4 pennies at $3.58…Crude Oil is up 17 cents to $88.10 while the U.S. Dollar Index has tumbled one-fifth of a point to 79.14…as John’s recent charts have shown, the Dollar Index should find temporary support at 79 (the “neckline”) but it is completing a rather ominous head and shoulders formation…below is an updated Dollar Index chart from John through yesterday’s trading…
World Bank Gives Brighter Outlook For China
The World Bank has raised its 2013 economic growth forecasts for China and developing East Asia, and says the region remained resilient despite the lackluster performance of the global economy…”For 2013, we expect the region to benefit from continued strong domestic demand and a mild global recovery that would nudge the contribution of net exports to growth back into positive territory, a trend projected to continue into 2014,” the World Bank said in its latest East Asia and Pacific Economic Update…”Most countries in the region have retained their strong macroeconomic fundamentals and should be able to withstand external shocks,” it added, although it warned of risks such as a sharp drop in investment growth in China that could shake global confidence and a U.S. failure to reach an agreement on tax increases and spending cuts before the end of the year…the World Bank said China was expected to expand by 8.4% next year, fueled by fiscal stimulus and the faster implementation of large investment projects…the latest forecast is higher than the 8.1% figure cited in an October report…”The slowdown in the Chinese economy appears to now have bottomed out…while third quarter growth, at 7.4% year-on-year, is still low compared to last year, quarter-on-quarter growth has picked up notably, reaching 9.1% in the third quarter at a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate,” the World Bank stated…
Today’s Markets
Asian stocks hit multi-month highs today as expectations of more aggressive monetary stimulus from Japan and signs of progress in reaching a U.S. fiscal deal lifted riskier assets…all eyes will be on Japan’s central bank as it announces its policy decision tomorrow…incoming prime minister Shinzo Abe’s landslide victory further strengthened easing expectations after he requested the BOJ to consider adopting a 2% inflation target in January…Japan’s Nikkei share average jumped 2.4% overnight to end above 10,000 for the first time in more than eight months on growing expectations of an easier monetary policy under a new government…China’s Shanghai Index was unchanged at 2162 (2 points above a down trendline in place since April, 2011)…
European shares are finishing the trading day on a strong note…helping the bullish cause in Europe (and elsewhere) is the continuing reduction of euro zone sovereign debt tensions… Italian and Spanish borrowing costs sit near multi-month lows and the euro is now at an eight-month high…the currency is also benefiting from news that an index of German business sentiment rose again in December…
North American markets are relatively flat in early trading…as of 7:05 am Pacific, the Venture Exchange is up 3 points at 1179…importantly, the Venture has held above critical support this month, an important feat considering the pressures of tax-loss selling, the “fiscal cliff” and weakness in precious metals…below is an updated weekly Venture chart from John,, going back to late 2010, that shows the top of the downsloping wedge is currently around 1275…the Index needs to push through that level in order to mount a sustained new uptrend…we believe there’s a strong probability of this occurring in either January or February…
Dynasty Gold (DYG, TSX-V)
An interesting play under a nickel that could perform very well for patient investors in 2013 is Dynasty Gold (DYG, TSX-V) which traded over 1 million shares yesterday, closing at 3 cents…we’ve pointed this one out before as it’s certainly worth our readers’ due diligence…DYG is sitting on nearly $1.5 million in cash and has kept a very low burn rate in 2012…in September, they acquired the Strike Property in the prolific Stewart area of northwest British Columbia and got some impressive initial sampling results pursuant to a drill program that will likely be carried out next summer…the company also has a Gold asset in China that it’s looking to sell…below is an updated chart from John…notice the huge increase in buying pressure since October…this tells us considerable accumulation has been taking place…
Note: Both John and Jon hold share positions in DYG.
According to level 2 not much for sale on RBW up to the 19 to 20 cent level. Could see a nice little build up before drill results come out.
Comment by Ed — December 19, 2012 @ 8:12 am
How about that ngc.v, graphite back from the dead? I said lmr.v had bottomed and it is looking good!! Maybe rbw will go up too if the graphite property is good.
Comment by greg — December 19, 2012 @ 10:04 am
RBW BID@.16 didn`t think we would see that again this year
Comment by brian — December 19, 2012 @ 11:40 am
Sudden surge in volume up to 350000 on RBW. Any ideas guys? News coming out today?
Comment by Ed — December 19, 2012 @ 12:04 pm
Looks like people might be thinking news will be good. Couple days ago we were at 11 or 12 cents, now up to 17 and rising on three times normal volume. Go RBW Go!!!
Comment by Ed — December 19, 2012 @ 12:15 pm
RBW………news coming this week? On the move.
Comment by Dan — December 19, 2012 @ 12:17 pm
Don’t get too excited kids – anon just dumped all the shares, which is, welllllllllll……BAD
Buyers are all retail speculators who are pretty much filling the anon seller order.
Had a bad feeling about this when it was trading in the 20’s and anon was selling. We saw what ended up happening there right? Well here is your second warning signal.
BMR save your response by telling us Anon is the biggest net seller on the ventures. It sure is and the ventures are collectively down 50%+ in the past 2 years, so thanks for stating the obvious.
We’ll be lucky if this goes to 20, at which point I pull the plug faster than you can count to 1 in your head.
What a dud play RBW has become.
Comment by alex — December 19, 2012 @ 12:38 pm
Alex if you look closer Wolverton was buying all those shares that you say anon is dumping. So i am glad that these shares are coming out of weak hands into stonger hands. This is very bullish for RBW. I wouldn’t be surprised to see news today after the close or tomorrow morning. Soon anyways.
Comment by Ed — December 19, 2012 @ 1:07 pm
Iguess time will tell
Comment by brian — December 19, 2012 @ 1:10 pm
Alex, the ANON argument has no merit. Day after day back in the spring, readers were bringing this up—-ANON is selling at 15 cents, 16 cents, with iceberg orders too. And I’m sure some investors sold because of that. Of course that was the time to be a buyer of RBW, not a seller, so ANON had it wrong. I don’t like the lack of market transparency that ANON creates anymore than you, but it’s a poor indicator. There are more important things to look at. ANON is the biggest seller with just about every stock and that’s been the case for more than just the last 2 years. You may eat those words about pulling the plug at .20 if there’s a discovery at Gold Viking or great results from Jewel Ridge, but that’s what makes a market. Everyone has their own approach.
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 19, 2012 @ 1:11 pm
why are a select few so concerned about anon,as far as i’m concerned anon are a bunch of crows circleing around one of thier own in the middle of the highway.they dont give a crap about any company in the market,all they want is the cash,just my opinion but i think they would sell snow if they could make a buck.not concerned,i dont think anyone else should be either.
Comment by tom — December 19, 2012 @ 1:35 pm
Agreed that everyone has their own approach BMR, but anon sold endless shares to blind inverstors who have since endured (and continue to endure) a massive bloodshed in the ventures exchange – they are now what we all know better as bagholders – that includes you guys by the way. You can’t argue that on any grounds, so pardon me for having no faith in any venture stock. With the exception of a handful of companies who have made significant discoveries, there is no value ascribed to explorers who offer “potential.” Market could care less, hence we went from 2400 to a laughable 1200-50% wiped out while the Dow is setting new highs- something wrong with the picture?
Anon has had it right all along – prove me otherwise and I hope I eat every word. Something tells me I’m going to remain hungry for a while.
Comment by alex — December 19, 2012 @ 1:45 pm
I couldn’t disagree more, Alex. You’re assuming also that somehow investors who trade (sell or buy) under ANON are somehow smarter and wiser and more successful investors than those who don’t. Sounds like you shouldn’t even be investing in the Venture. This market had a huge run-up between late 2008 and early 2011. It either under-performs or out-performs the Dow. It’s a risky market and not for the faint of heart, but you should never complain about a 50% drop. You need to take profits gradually through a bull market, and be ready to take advantage of times like this. ANON was a huge seller during the Crash, all the way down to 700 for the Venture. Did they have it right then? Obviously not. Tom had it right – why are a select few so concerned about ANON? You can’t be successful in this market if that’s what you are focused on.
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 19, 2012 @ 2:00 pm
Let’s get something straight here for all those reading your rebuttal. Your whole argument is based on false pretenses, which assumes that we are in a Bull Market – same old song and dance for the last 2 years and the trend has been nothing but DOWN. Run a 3 year chart and hit me back on this point. It’s also quite natural that anyone who sees half their portfolio vanish be upset, while the dow and other indices are near their 2-3 year highs. So on this point, the ventures are severely under performing the dow. You’re probably right that I shouldn’t be “investing” in the ventures, if that’s what you call putting money in a pile of junk. We can both agree on this point at least.
It’s not so much Anon that I’m focused on, but the fact that this is a broken exchange that is founded on not just speculative money, but money that is basically an opportunity cost to buying the weekly Lotto Max. Didn’t realize the exchange was that rotten when I got in, but now I do. What’s more amazing is that you are convinced we’re in some bull phase. Your visions of grandeur can live on so long before reality sets in.
One last comment – to tell me that Anon had it wrong when they were selling the ventures right down to 700 is pretty convenient in hindsight when supposed recovery was a dead-cat bounce. Guess what, we’re not far from triple digits AGAIN. That’s nothing to be bullish about. We’re in a new era of risk aversion and you can’t seem to admit it.
Good luck – you’re going to really need it this time
Comment by alex — December 19, 2012 @ 4:13 pm
Alex, I think your beating a dead horse here debating with BMR. Remember that their investing style is to use lines in the sand and recycled cliches. It’s best to seek advice from professionals, not amateurs.
Comment by OldMan — December 20, 2012 @ 4:45 am
Some people are so butt hurt over this RBW thing. Or maybe they are still upset because they sold low and it’s going back up? BMR provides good information and so far, I have only made money with stocks they provide info on because I got in and I got out when I felt the time was right. BMR can only provide us charts and give us detailed updates on companies and what’s going on in the world, they can’t control when you buy or sell, and they certainly aren’t prophets. You haters should either just stop visiting this site if you dislike it so much, or just stop investing if you can’t decide for yourselves when you buy/sell and feel the constant need to blame others.
Comment by Cam — December 20, 2012 @ 6:18 am
Yeah,,,,, but you keep coming back OldMan. That doesn’t make any sense. Take your sarcasm some where else if you think they’re amateurs then obviously they wouldn’t be worth your time either.*shakes head*
Comment by Rob — December 20, 2012 @ 6:25 am