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September 20, 2013

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has traded between $1,346 and $1,368 so far today…as of 6:45 am Pacific, bullion is down $13 an ounce at $1,352 but is nonetheless headed for a strong weekly performance thanks to Wednesday’s sharp turnaround following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its printing presses running 24/7, at least for now…in an interview this morning with Bloomberg, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who traditionally has been known as a Fed hawk, said the central bank could begin to scale back its bond buying program as early as next month…“This was a close decision here in September,” Bullard told Bloomberg, emphasizing the role that economic data has played and will continue to play in Fed decisions…Bullard is scheduled to speak on monetary policy to the New York Association for Business Economics at about 10:00 am Pacific today…

The Fed won’t start to scale back its QE program this year – at least that’s the view of former George W. Bush economic advisor Lawrence Lindsey…“It’s going to take a long, long time for them [the Fed] to hit their goals. I think we’re going to be in a QE-type of situation for a while,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning…

John will have a couple of important Gold charts this weekend as part of our Week In Review And A Look Ahead...Gold may soon get another shot-in-the-arm as Congress gets ready to wrangle over the debt ceiling which inevitably will have to increased…Silver is off 51 cents at $22.59…Copper is off a penny at $3.29 (see new chart below)…Crude Oil is down 72 cents at $105.67 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up slightly at 80.46 but fell below an important long-term trendline this week…

Holdings in Gold-backed ETP’s fell 2.1 metric tons yesterday to 1,935.1 tons, the lowest since May 2010, according to data compiled by Bloomberg…

The prestigious Denver Gold Forum begins this Sunday…

Interesting article in this morning’s Financial Times…former UK regulator Lord Turner told Swedish economists last week, and repeated to central bankers and economists in London this week, the real story behind the recent dramatic financial sagas – the dance around QE or the crisis at Lehman Brothers five years ago – is that western economies have become hooked on ever-expanding levels of debt…until this situation changes (how likely is that, anytime soon?), it is delusional to think that anyone has really “fixed” western finance with post-Lehman reforms, or created truly healthy growth, Lord Turner insists…put another way – although he did not say so bluntly –  1 way to interpret this week’s dance around QE is that policymakers are continuing to prop up a financial system that is (at best) peculiar and (at worst) unstable…in our view, this can only be bullish for Gold

This is probably a good sign for continued strength in Gold prices during the 4th quarter – Societe Generale continues to view Gold’s fundamentals as “bearish”…“The Fed taper delay doesn’t change the fact that most of the Gold fundamentals are, in our view, bearish.  The Fed taper delay has at most weakened the bearish case somewhat but not to an extent that it is likely to prevent the Gold price from trending lower,” they stated in a research note released yesterday.  “We forecast the Gold price to average $1,225 during (the fourth quarter of 2013) and to drop down to about $1,100 during 2014. We recommend investors to use the recent Gold rally as a selling opportunity.”

What’s Copper Saying These Days?

Copper appears to be forming a bullish inverted head-and-shoulders bottom…buy pressure has emerged for the 1st time this year, and a bullish +DI/-DI crossover appears to be in the works for the 1st time since late last year…in otherwords, Copper is looking strong – at least healthy enough to rally further from current levels in the weeks ahead which would be another bullish factor for the Venture Exchange

Below is a 13-month weekly Copper chart from John…the inverted “head and shoulders” target is $3.80 which is about a 15% move from current levels…that kind of move would surprise most analysts…


India Raises Rates, Tries To Tame Inflation

India’s new central bank governor marked his first policy meeting today with a bold decision to hike interest rates, catching analysts off-guard and leading to sharp falls on the Indian stock market…the central bank hiked the key interest rate by 25 basis points, citing the threat of rising inflation…higher food costs pushed wholesale price inflation to 6.1% in August, while consumer price inflation remains close to 10%…Asia’s third-largest economy grew at only 4.4% in the last quarter, its lowest rate in more than 3 years…

Quebec Government “Demonstrates An Unfortunate Lack Of Understanding” Of How The Mining Industry Works

In a presentation to Quebec’s Parliamentary Committee on Bill 43 of the Mining Act, Mineweb’s Dorothy Koish reported this morning that the Quebec Mining Exploration Association warned that in its current firm, the measure “will eventually reduce the ability of the Quebec mining industry to develop resource, create jobs and generate wealth for all Quebecers.”

Quebec Mining Exploration Association (QMEA) President Philippe Cloutier told the committee, “It is clear to us that the government demonstrates an unfortunate lack of understanding of how our industry and our business models work, as well as the challenges we face. The bill ignores the reality of mineral resource development in Quebec and seems to uphold a fictional vision of our practice on the ground.”

Fortunately, the political life of the current dysfunctional, socialist/separatist provincial government in Quebec is in serious jeopardy…

Today’s Markets

Asian markets were mixed overnight…China’s Shanghai Composite climbed 6 points to close at 2192…European shares are slightly lower in late trading overseas…meanwhile, the Dow is off 2 points through the first 15 minutes of trading…the TSX is flat while the Venture is up 2 points at 955 as of 6:45 am Pacific…the Venture continues a bullish pattern of holding up well whenever Gold is under pressure as it is today…

North American Nickel Inc. (NAN, TSX-V)

Focus on the small percentage of Venture companies who have the working capital, the expertise, the properties and the drive to succeed both on the ground and in the market, and can make discoveries that majors can buy…North American Nickel Inc. (NAN, TSX-V) fits into that category as interest continues to build in the company’s early-stage discovery in Greenland which it’s now referring to as the Imiak Hill Conduit Complex (IHCC)…it’s located in the northern part of the company’s 100%-owned Maniitsoq Nickel-Copper-Cobalt and PGM project in southwest Greenland…NAN has enjoyed a solid week and speculators could drive it up further based on John’s updated 2.5-year weekly chart…buy pressure is clearly increasing…as always, perform your own due diligence…NAN is unchanged at 42 cents in early trading…

True Gold Receives Environmental Permit For Karma Project

True Gold Mining Inc. (TGM, TSX) has received an environmental permit from the Burkina Faso Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development for development of the Goulagou I, Goulagou II and Rambo deposits at the company’s flagship Karma Gold project…the receipt of final environmental approval advances the company’s application for an exploitation permit for the deposits…mining (exploitation) permits are the next and final approvals required before development and production can begin, and they are typically granted approximately 2 months after receipt of environmental permits…TGM is up half a penny at 33.5 cents on light volume as of 6:45 am Pacific

Probe Mines Ltd. (PRB, TSX-V) Updated Chart

Probe Mines (PRB, TSX-V) remains 1 of our favorite exploration stories as the company continues to build on its deposit at Borden Lake in northern Ontario with aggressive drilling in the high-grade southeast section of the property…Probe’s priority continues to be to delineate and define this high-grade zone in order to incorporate those results into updated reports…Borden Lake has been re-classified by the company as a more traditional high-grade, Archean lode Gold system, amenable to underground recovery, which is also bounded by significant ancillary lower-grade mineralization, the latter ideally suited to potential open-pit mining techniques…Probe has been a superb market performer in recent months, hitting a new high for the year recently despite Gold’s significant drop in 2013…below is a 2.5-year weekly chart from John…note the updated Fib. level (not a price target, just a theoretical level based on Fib. analysis)…Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM, TSX) took a slice of Probe in the spring, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see them buy Probe out completely by sometime next year…PRB is unchanged at $2.21 after 15 minutes of trading…

Fission Uranium Inc. (FCU, TSX-V) Updated Chart

As we’ve previously noted, Fission has had a habit of testing its rising 100-day moving average (SMA) on any pullbacks, and then quickly resumes its upward climb…this happened again this month…below is an updated chart…superb uranium discovery at PLS that ultimately should draw the interest of a major…as of 6:45 am Pacific, FCU is unchanged at $1.24…

Great Panther Silver Ltd. (GPR, TSX) Updated Chart

Great Panther Silver (GPR, TSX) has excellent support around the $1 level, just slightly below its rising 50-day SMA, so any minor pullback from current levels makes this an attractive trading opportunity at least, if you’re bullish on Silver prices for at least the short-term…GPR is off a penny at $1.07 as of 6:45 am Pacific

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold share positions in NAN, PRB, FCU or GPR.

11 Comments

  1. BMR – Lord Turner insists…put another way – although he did not say so bluntly – 1 way to interpret this week’s dance around QE is that policymakers are continuing to prop up a financial system that is (at best) peculiar and (at worst) unstable…in our view, this can only be bullish for Gold.

    Bert – Pray tell me what benefit would it be for us to see Gold high at the
    expense of an unstable financial system. Way to go me Lord.

    Comment by Bert — September 20, 2013 @ 5:59 am

  2. Jon,

    Where will you be posting your response about azc?
    This way I can look for it in the right spot.

    Thanks

    Comment by Frank — September 20, 2013 @ 6:37 am

  3. On Sunday, Frank…sorry for the delay.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 20, 2013 @ 6:47 am

  4. in an interview this morning with Bloomberg, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who traditionally has been known as a Fed hawk, said the central bank could begin to scale back its bond buying program as early as next month…“This was a close decision here in September,” Bullard told Bloomberg, emphasizing the role that economic data has played and will continue to play in Fed decisions…

    Here we go already talking about tapering again, this is a bunch of crap, they say these things to try and keep a lid on the gold price… this mornings sell off makes no sense whatsoever, total manipulation, and unfortunately the US Govt, will do nothing about it, because they are the ones behind it with JPMorgan leading the way…Ted Butler calls JPMorgan crooks all of the time, puts it out there in print and plain sight for everyone to see, and JPMorgan does nothing, wouldn’t you think if someone was calling you a crook all of the time you would get an atty and put a stop to it or respond in some way? JPMorgan does nothing, I must be blind or stupid to keep participating and thinking that I have a chance to make any money in this crooked environment..

    Comment by Greg — September 20, 2013 @ 7:55 am

  5. Hello Greg

    It appears we both are inclined to be whiners. Welcome to the group. R !

    Comment by Bert — September 20, 2013 @ 8:25 am

  6. Lol Bert

    Comment by Greg — September 20, 2013 @ 9:03 am

  7. Jon,

    Do you think That Castle resources will have a chance to attract a good Partner for their granduc project? or as we say in french it is (mission impossible)

    Like Bert and Greg i and disapoint of how the market is being manupulated!!

    Anyway i have pick up some Firesteel share this week as nobody want them!

    Good luck!

    Martin

    Comment by Martin — September 20, 2013 @ 1:54 pm

  8. A possible hidden gem. Archer res. (ACN) This could be a winner.Mucho gold in Nevada. Richard l

    Comment by richard l — September 21, 2013 @ 7:27 am

  9. Hi Jon,
    Mr. Murray, RBW CEO, has sold 600,000 shares of RBW on the open market at 6 cents. I wonder if he will buy into his other company, Nebu Resources, NBU.V, which is trading at half a cent.
    RBW has nearly tripled in value recently, and maybe BMR should be charting it on a regular basis.

    Comment by Alexandre — September 21, 2013 @ 8:47 pm

  10. CRI has weakened a little this month but importantly on low volume, so that’s encouraging. The technicals and fundamentals are looking good, so it’s worth being patient with this one I think. RSI(2) on the 1-year daily chart, by the way, is now at a low extreme not seen since the August low.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 22, 2013 @ 7:25 am

  11. We’re keeping a close eye, of course, on RBW. That one trade the other day of 600,000 shares certainly appeared to be an arranged cross, and I suspect it was for RBW financing purposes but we’ll see. RBW is certainly showing signs of life and we’re very pleased to see that. What would also be nice to see is a few more holes at Gold Viking to test the high-grade Gold and Silver mineralization discovered near-surface late last year. That could get the market really humming IMHO.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 22, 2013 @ 7:31 am

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