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September 24, 2013

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold traded as high as $1,330 overnight and touched a low of $1,305 during the last hour…as of 7:10 am Pacific, bullion is down $9 an ounce at $1,313…Silver is off 9 cents at $21.55…Copper is off a nickel at $3.22…Crude Oil is 98 cents lower at $102.62 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up nearly one-tenth of a point at 80.52…

Holdings in Gold-backed ETP’s fell 0.7 metric tons yesterday to 1,932.4 tons, the lowest since May 2010, data compiled by Bloomberg shows…meanwhile, it has been another soft month for the sale of American Eagle Gold coins…the U.S. Mint has sold 12,000 ounces of these coins so far this month, slightly exceeding the August total of 11,500 ounces – the lowest in at least 6 years, according to the U.S. Mint’s web site…

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Dennis Lockhart, considered a centrist whose views tend to represent the Fed’s consensus, said yesterday the U.S. economy is still facing significant ambiguity and suggested there isn’t enough time between now and the October 29-30 meeting to gather the necessary economic data to justify a cut in the Fed’s bond-buying program…“In the short time between now and the October meeting, I don’t think there will be an accumulation of enough evidence to dramatically change the picture” of an economy defined by “ambiguous” economic data and facing government budget showdowns in coming weeks, Lockhart said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “I don’t have expectations that the fog will clear dramatically between now and October.” 

It’s strange that the markets reacted the way they did Friday on somewhat hawkish comments from the Fed’s James Bullard, yet barely budged yesterday on Lockhart’s remarks…in addition, New York Fed President William Dudley said the central bank still needs to push hard against threats to the U.S. economic recovery, and fiscal uncertainties in particular “loom very large right now”…Dudley defended the Fed’s decision last week not to trim its aggressive bond-buying…most analysts were expecting the fed to begin scaling back QE3 at its meeting last week…24 of 41 economists surveyed by Bloomberg last Wednesday and Thursday said the Fed will take the first step in slowing its bond buying in December, but the reality is the Fed is in a difficult trap it may not be able to escape from until sometime in 2014…

“Geoscience For Discovery” Begins Tomorrow At Whistler

While the very popular Denver Gold Forum is underway, a less known but equally important 3-day event hosted by the Society of Economic Geologists kicks off tomorrow at Whistler…at least 800 leading scientists and industry thinkers from 35 countries will be gathering to share new developments in leading edge mineral deposit science and discovery…with ever-sincreasing demand for metals and minerals, new and innovative science is essential to uncovering future mineral deposit discoveries – especially since so many of the “easy” deposits around the world have already been found and mined…among the many speakers, Richard Sillitoe, a world-renowned consultant from the U.K., will examine the quirks of the regional distribution of mines and mineral deposits around the northern Pacific Rim, while Claire Chamberlain of Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK, TSX) will discuss the latest findings on the study of British Columbia’s Gold-encirhced porphyry Copper deposits…

Fission Uranium Inc. (FCU, TSX-V)

More excellent results yesterday from the Patterson Lake South uranium discovery, and Fission Uranium Inc. (FCU, TSX-V) closed up 2 pennies at $1.25…Fission, of course, is swallowing JV partner Alpha Minerals Inc. (AMW, TSX-V), and ultimately what makes sense is that a big fish will come along and swallow Fission – and at significantly higher prices that yesterday’s $1.25 close for FCU…the stock is up a nickel through the first 40 minutes of trading day…

John’s 6-month daily chart shows how Fission consistently finds support at its 50-day moving average (SMA)…Fibonacci resistance is at $1.47 but we see little problem in that being overcome at some point during Q4…this is a first-rate discovery play and exactly the kind of high quality Venture situation that can offer very significant potential leverage for investors…


Aldrin Resource Corp, (ALN, TSX-V)

On the subject of the Saskatchewan uranium play, Aldrin Resource Corp. (ALN, TSX-V) has been a strong performer in recent months, though it has backed off recently which is actually a good thing as that provides opportunity…Aldrin has been busy lining up drill targets for its Triple M Property 10 kilometres southwest of and on trend with the Patterson Lake discovery, with drilling expected to commence in January…interestingly, the company has also attracted former NHL star Bryan Trottier to its Advisory Board, and Trottier is expected to be instrumental in assisting Aldrin in building relationships in local communities…Trottier stated in an ALN news release last week, “I am very pleased to be working with Aldrin.  Over the past 35 years, I have visited over 200 first nations communities in Canada, conducting hockey clinics and delivering the message for the first nations children to continue their education and pursue their dreams of making healthy choices. My ancestral background is from the Cree Metis Chippewa heritage and the inspiration of making it from a small Saskatchewan community to New York and the National Hockey League hopefully leaves a lasting memory and encourages others to excel at whatever they choose to pursue.”

The ALN chart continues to look strong, despite the recent pullback from a 17-cent high…the stock closed yesterday at 13 cents, half a penny below its rising 100-day SMA and 1.5 cents above its rising 50-day SMA…RSI(14) is bouncing off solid support…


Sheslay Valley Discovery Opportunity

While we’re hopeful Colorado Resources (CXO, TSX-V) can prove John Kaiser wrong and deliver more than just “mediocrity” with some upcoming drill results, the area that could really light up very soon is the Sheslay River Valley which we have been writing about since June…it’s more prospective in our view than North ROK…initial drill results from Prosper Gold (PGX, TSX-V) are expected during the 1st half of October, and we’re surprised Kaiser and others haven’t picked up on Prosper’s 22 drill core photos posted on its web site last Wednesday…PGX announced, in conjunction with the release of those photos, that each hole drilled so far at the Sheslay has intersected mineralization from the top of the hole to the bottom with the deepest hole going 598 metres – far deeper than any previous drilling on this property…grade of course will be key…what the drill core photos show, however, are multi-generations of veins…veins that are also multi-directional, as an independent and highly experienced geologist discussed with us yesterday…this is evidence of a robust hydrothermal system, and that’s of course essential to any significant Copper-Gold porphyry deposit…the core being shown by Prosper is what one would expect to see from a Copper-Gold porphyry deposit…multiple mineralizing events appear to have occurred at the Sheslay, and of course it’s already known that the adjoining Grizzly Property (Garibaldi Resources, GGI, TSX-V) has shown similar geological and geophysical signatures as the Sheslay…we have a major report coming up on the Sheslay River Valley later this week, so stay tuned…

Today’s Markets

China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 14 points overnight to close at 2208…Japan’s Nikkei average, meanwhile, was essentially unchanged at 14733…European shares are up modestly in late trading overseas…

In New York, the Dow is off 35 points through the first 40 minutes of trading…an index of consumer confidence, released at 7:00 am Pacific, came in at 79.7 in September…economists polled by Reuters were expecting this figure to rise to 78 in September from 76.8…the last 2 U.S. government shutdowns were not particularly negative for stocks and they were short – 5 days in November, 1995 and 21 days in January, 1996…could it be different this time around with the intensity of the debate over the debt ceiling?…only time will tell, but politicians like to kick the can down the road…what’s likely to emerge in our view is some sort of a compromise that funds the government until December, then Congress will have 2+ months to try and sort things out…

The TSX is down 7 points while the Venture is flat at 945 as of 7:10 am Pacific

Medallion Resources Ltd. (MDL, TSX-V)

For investors interested in rare earth plays, we suggest checking out Medallion Resources (MDL, TSX-V) which has performed extremely well since the spring, climbing from a 52-week low of 10 cents to a high of 43 cents the last couple of trading sessions…the 50-day SMA, currently at 36 cents, has provided exceptional support since the beginning of June when volume started picking up in this stock…below is a 1.5-year weekly chart from John…

Note: John and Jon both hold share positions in GGI.  Jon also holds a share position in PGX.

17 Comments

  1. CVN MOVING TODAY!

    Comment by STEVEN1 — September 24, 2013 @ 6:35 am

  2. Jon,

    Have you changed your mind about azc Augusta Resource?
    I can’t find it anywhere …

    Comment by Frank — September 24, 2013 @ 10:05 am

  3. Jon, I heard through someone who called the people at PGX and it sounds like the adjacent property they mentioned on their release was DoubleView property not GGi, I was wondering why they would fly the survey over their property and what you think of Double View.
    Thx Paul

    Comment by Paul — September 24, 2013 @ 11:37 am

  4. Hello BMR, I have been following you since a few years now, without commenting. Thanks for your posts. One question: any idea what’s brewing for RBW?

    I guess its financing is now fully subscribed, otherwise it would not be trading at this level since one week. Do you plan an interview or a quick coverage again? Would be great.

    Thanks,

    Richard

    Comment by Richard — September 24, 2013 @ 1:07 pm

  5. DBV got some interesting results on their 6th hole, results that definitely warrant follow-up, and that’s why they’re raising more money right now. The Hat Property certainly has some interesting showings —- the question is, where does it fit into the big Sheslay Valley puzzle? This is a fascinating area and it’s going to be exciting to see how everything unfolds. There are obviously a lot of unanswered geological questions at the moment, and the pieces of that big puzzle will start to come together in the very near future as results come in from Prosper Gold and Garibaldi tackles its large slice of the Sheslay pie. From the research we’ve done, from the geologists we’ve spoken to and the publicly available technical reports we’ve looked at, the 2 KEY properties at this point are the Sheslay and the Grizzly. A strong case can be made that the Grizzly and the Sheslay are very much connected, that there’s a north-south thing going on here. The Hat is east of the Sheslay and could lie on the outer edge of a very big system – we’ll see.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 24, 2013 @ 1:45 pm

  6. Richard – Hello BMR – any idea what’s brewing for RBW?

    Bert – In case you didn’t notice, i questioned BMR’s connection with RBW 2 or 3 times, during
    the last couple of months’. Because they are weren’t mentioning RBW, unless questioned & because
    their responses just didn’t have the same rhythm, i was left with the impression that they do not
    have a direct connection with RBW at this time. Too bad, because it’s beginning to wake up now. R !

    Comment by Bert — September 24, 2013 @ 3:45 pm

  7. My guess is someone could be picking up RBW as a cheap call option on graphite. It will take a while for the gold and silver turnaround to creep into RBW, but with graphite stocks starting to move RBW is probably one of the cheapest calls out there.

    Comment by Justin — September 24, 2013 @ 6:08 pm

  8. might want to check out PAN.V

    Comment by Mike — September 24, 2013 @ 6:40 pm

  9. I wonder how much GGI will go down when we finally get their long awaited update?

    Comment by Ivan — September 24, 2013 @ 6:54 pm

  10. As long as there is activity on the ground, GGI will be just fine—-with the possibility of a huge move if PGX hits on their first holes at the Sheslay…drill results expected anytime during the first half of October…that’s the dynamic to keep an eye on in the coming days…not many investors understand yet what’s happening at the Sheslay River Valley but our report this week (perhaps later today) will paint a very clear picture…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 25, 2013 @ 3:40 am

  11. Because my comments regarding BMR/RBW was posted without a denail from BMR, is proof
    positive that they no longer have a connection, so we move on. R !

    Comment by Bert — September 25, 2013 @ 4:11 am

  12. Bert,
    I expect BMR will do a full review, with charts, on RBW this week. Maybe they will even throw in a recent interview with Mr. Johnson.
    Price appreciation is much more positive with RBW than, for instance, Prosper.
    I am learning to read when stocks are promoted, even when they inherently have good prospects.

    Comment by Alexandre — September 25, 2013 @ 4:26 am

  13. Bert, Alexandre, and others: I have been extremely busy on a personal note in the last number of days, including dealing with a family member in hospital who has lost his leg, among other injuries, in a tragic accident. So I have not been able to review every posting in detail here or answer every question. I do have a life outside of BMR, and having said that we’ve also been very busy at BMR with research and trying to focus on the right situations in this challenging overall market environment.

    I love the fact RBW is picking up some steam and we’d be more than delighted to do another interview with David Johnston when there is some meat that we can chew on. It’s virtually impossible to do an interview when there isn’t hard news on the table and things happening on the ground. So a completion of a financing, exploration work, etc., would be great to hear. We’re keeping an eye on the chart, and at the right time John will do an update. We first brought RBW to our readers’ attention at a dime in late 2011 as both a short-term and a long-term opportunity, and we like their projects (overall) as much now as we did before. But they do need to raise some money of course, and many companies at the moment are in the same boat. Besides Gold, Silver, and the CDNX overall, our focus in recent months in particular has been on juniors with strong working capital positions who are also in potential important discovery situations, and we believe that approach has been the correct one.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 25, 2013 @ 4:34 am

  14. Thanks Jon,
    We wish the Best to All.

    Comment by Alexandre — September 25, 2013 @ 4:37 am

  15. I always did realize that you had a life outside BMR, but whatever
    occupies your time, when it comes to family matters, in particular
    injuries, it is difficult. I feel confident in speaking for everyone
    on this board, when i state. that our thoughts are with you & your family.
    R !,

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — September 25, 2013 @ 5:32 am

  16. Jon Hope and pray your loved one makes a speedy recovery.

    Comment by Greg J. — September 25, 2013 @ 5:37 am

  17. Thank you, Greg, Bert, everyone…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — September 25, 2013 @ 6:41 am

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