Another shortened trading week coming up as Canadian markets remain closed tomorrow (“Boxing Day” holiday), though U.S. markets re-open after enjoying their best week in over a month. All markets will be closed on Friday, of course, for New Year’s Day.
Morning Musings resumes Tuesday with the Venture well-positioned for a breakout above Fib. resistance at 517 as you can see in this 6-month daily chart. The Venture seasonal rally gained considerable traction last Wednesday and Thursday when the Index pushed above a downtrend line as well as its EMA(8) and EMA(20) moving averages.
Interestingly, despite the rout in commodities during this 4th quarter, the Venture has an excellent chance to finish Q4 in slightly positive territory with its best Q4 performance since 2010. That bodes well for a further recovery in Q1 and contrasts sharply with the situation last year when the Index plunged by more than 20% in Q4.
Venture 6-Month Daily Chart
The long dollar/short Gold trade has exhausted itself for the time being with the U.S. Dollar Index headed for its biggest monthly decline since April. This fits historical patterns of Dollar weakness in the 3-6 months following the start of a Fed rate hike cycle. The best thing for the Venture, Gold and commodities in general was getting a Fed rate hike out of the way after 18 months of speculation fueled a record run in the greenback.
Gold has a very good chance of breaking out above $1,080 resistance this coming week, and that should keep Gold stocks buoyant. Bloomberg notes that the put-to-call ratio on SPDR Gold Shares has reached its lowest level since 2008, perhaps indicating that investors who were betting on further declines in Gold prices are losing enthusiasm for this trade. The COT structure is also highly favorable for a Gold rebound with smart-money commercial traders having dramatically scaled back their short positions on the dip below $1,100 and amid all the “doom and gloom” regarding the metal.
Usually the last 3 trading days of the year (after tax loss selling ends) and the first couple days of the New Year are among the best days of the year on the Venture Exchange. Let’s see if that happens this year. I think we are set up for it nicely given the difficult year it has been.
Comment by Danny — December 28, 2015 @ 10:36 am
Yes, but is this just a dead cat bounce or is this rally for real?
Comment by Tony T — December 28, 2015 @ 12:49 pm
Jon, will there be a Monday Sizzler this week?
Comment by Dan1 — December 28, 2015 @ 1:27 pm
This coming weekend, Dan1 (Sunday the 3rd), we all needed some rest and time with family.
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 28, 2015 @ 1:36 pm
Absolutely Jon. Everyone deserves family time this time of the year. Your team has done a tremendous job for your subscribers in 2015.
Merry Christmas!
Comment by Dan1 — December 28, 2015 @ 1:40 pm
Very well said and done, Jon. Enjoy, you deserve it.january will be a good month for GGI.
Comment by Tombc — December 28, 2015 @ 1:49 pm
Tony T – that is the million dollar question. I wish I knew the answer.
Comment by Danny — December 28, 2015 @ 4:11 pm
Same Here Danny…… Same here…….
Comment by tony t — December 28, 2015 @ 6:43 pm
NPH on the move again today big, anyone know what’s up?
Comment by Sameer — December 29, 2015 @ 7:35 am
Jon – have you had any conversations with RAV at +BLO??? I emailed him a few times.. he answered the first one then nada.. I asked him about Hound Labs… he didnt respond.
Wonder how close they are … like really… wonder if he would spill anything to you guys??
Comment by Jeremy — December 29, 2015 @ 8:27 am
I haven’t spoken with him recently, Jeremy, but thanks for the reminder…I will track him down.
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 29, 2015 @ 8:29 am
and just as I write this bang an email:) so am not being ignored..:) still tho there doesnt seem to be an IR link to the company other than info@…
thx mate.. he does say that they will ‘have some updates’…:)
Comment by Jeremy — December 29, 2015 @ 8:40 am
WRR looks fantastic, finally jon!
Comment by STEVEN1 — December 29, 2015 @ 9:04 am
Yes, it’s looking great, Steven1, and we’ll have an update in this morning’s report…
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 29, 2015 @ 9:14 am
WRR- buyer is there, I hope big month coming with probably the result of the first two hole !
Comment by Guy Delisle — December 29, 2015 @ 9:26 am
WRR – With results expected from first 2 holes, I’m surprised that there’s over 700,000 shares available between .045 – .05.
Comment by Jeff — December 29, 2015 @ 10:33 am
I don’t believe we’ll see initial results from WRR until toward the end of January, Jeff.
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 29, 2015 @ 10:46 am
WRR- Why Jon ?
Comment by Guy Delisle — December 29, 2015 @ 11:00 am
Guy, they just started drilling at the beginning of this month…there’s no reason to expect anything in terms of initial assay results until the 2nd half of January, probably closer to the latter part of the month than the middle…that’s perfectly ok as it also gives time for some speculation to build…perhaps they’ll provide some sort of update during the first half of January…I would expect to see that before first results…
Comment by Jon - BMR — December 29, 2015 @ 1:02 pm
Guess Regoci is not going to deliver any Christmas cheer as there are only two days left to what I consider the Christmas period. Too bad as it would have been nice to keep the momentum going into the New Year.
Comment by Dan1 — December 29, 2015 @ 1:11 pm
Maybe next week Dan. Full trading week and things getting back to normal. Quite a few people taking 3 days off work to make a decent break, so best wait until they are all back at their desks before announcing drill results.
GGI are cashed up and ready to go as soon as results from first 3 holes are received. They will have a game plan in place for whatever comes back from the lab., be they better, worse or in line with the XRF analyser.
Comment by Tom UK — December 30, 2015 @ 12:27 am