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February 21, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 2 of 3

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion threw a nasty curve ball at the market last Tuesday morning – assay results on a whopping 56 holes were suddenly dumped on the market early that trading day, allowing investors no time for interpretation and creating an instant panic that caused the stock to tumble from a high of 77 cents that day to a low of 53 cents…this was a classic example of a poor corporate communication strategy…the stock very quickly broke important technical support after the news came out Tuesday and this just made matters worse…having said that, there were many encouraging and even some exciting results which is why the stock began to stabilize after its Terrible Tuesday and strengthen later in the week…GBB closed Friday at 58 cents, a loss of 15 cents for the week…for the first time since 2009 Gold Bullion is now trading below its 100 and 200-day moving averages…that kind of chart damage has consequences and creates new overhead resistance…on the bright side, the 200-day SMA at 62 cents continues to rise and the rising 300-day at 48 cents provides backup technical support to that which exists in the low 50’s as John outlined in his recent chart…our faith in the Granada Gold Property remains as strong as ever and we’ll be going into detail on the latest results in a major article this week…

Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V)

Cadillac roared back to life last week and its chart shows a stock that appears ready to explode…Cadillac jumped 5.5 cents last week to close at 31.5 cents…the strength started Wednesday, the day after CQX’s AGM in Vancouver, and price and volume both increased the following two days…the trend has definitely reversed with Cadillac after a normal retracement that took the stock from a high of 50 cents January 4 to a low of 21 cents February 3…keep in mind this is a stock that was trading as low as a nickel in November…it made an extremely powerful move through December, so a pullback for a month or so was very healthy from a technical standpoint as the stock cleansed its overbought condition…in situations like this, a reversal in the 20-day moving average (SMA) is the “sweet spot” for traders and investors – the ideal time to jump in…Cadillac’s 20-day is now reversing to the upside and that means there is plenty of strength ahead with the high probability of a new up-leg now underway…the fundamentals support the bullish new technical picture…Cadillac’s move last week coincided with the release of Richmont Mines‘ (RIC, TSX-V) new 43-101 resource estimate for its Wasamac Property, 15 kilometres west of Rouyn-Noranda…measured and indicated resources have increased sharply to 411,000 ounces while inferred resources have more than tripled to one million ounces for a total of 1,418,000 ounces…the principal structure hosting Gold mineralization at Wasamac plunges north at a dip between 50 and 55 degrees toward Cadillac’s 100%-owned ground…we’ll be reporting much more on this in the coming week, but our belief is that Richmont is going to build a plant at Wasamac with production of 100,000 ounces a year quite possible based on the new resource numbers from that property…building a plant at Wasamac would also help lower production costs for Richmont’s nearby Francoeur Mine which is going into production later this year…initially, ore from Francoeur will have to be trucked to the company’s Camflo Mill at Malartic for processing…a plant at Wasamac may make a lot of strategic sense…after completing 20,000 metres of drilling last year at Wasamac, Richmont will be drilling 35,000 more metres this year…given this bullish news on Wasamac, our prediction is that Cadillac is going to seize the moment and initiate a drill campaign of its own at its Wasa claims in order to test for a possible high grade depth extension of the deposit…in addition, Cadillac has already identified some very promising VMS targets on those claims…with a market cap of just $7.9 million, it’s not hard to figure out Cadillac has major upside potential based solely on developments at Wasamac…the company also has 7,000+ additional hectares along the Cadillac Trend in an exploration partnership with Visible Gold (VGD, TSX-V) which intends to drill aggressively, likely beginning within a few weeks…on top of all that, Cadillac has secured an entire former mining camp in Utah near the Nevada border (the “Goldstrike District”) which has Carlin-type potential…Goldstrike produced over 200,000 ounces of Gold and Silver from numerous open pits in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s…the area has never been properly explored and Cadillac is planning a major exploration program in order to unlock the potential value of Goldstrike…

Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V)

Abcourt released assay results last Tuesday from six more holes at its Abcourt-Barvue Silver-Zinc Property near Val d’Or, and the market liked what it saw…the holes were all drilled 150 to 200 metres from surface and five of them intersected two zones of high grade silver and zinc…Hole #16 cut 152.26 g/t Ag over 12.7 metres…the stock jumped 3.5 cents Tuesday to 20.5 cents on 2.5 million shares…it held its ground through the rest of the week and closed Friday at 20 cents for a weekly gain of 3 pennies…the surge in the silver price to new 30-year highs is extremely bullish for this play…the heavy accumulation that began in Abcourt in December was no fluke in our view…this is a company with significant assets that could justify a substantially higher valuation…nearly 60 million shares of ABI changed hands on the CDNX in December and January – record volume for this stock, accompanied by a price jump from 14.5 cents…we’ve seen these type of volume surges before and they are always a very positive sign…Abcourt is being accumulated, and our best guess is that some savvy players like the assets in the ground…the 10,000 metre drill program at Abcourt-Barvue continues with the goal of upgrading and augmenting existing 43-101 reserves and resources…the company is also trying to justify an expansion of the proposed mill from 650,000 tonnes to one million tonnes…Abcourt-Barvue is a former producer and one of the best silver assets in the country with nearly 20 million ounces in all-category reserves and resources (plus nearly 300,000 tonnes of zinc)…in addition, the company holds the former producing Elder Gold Mine near Rouyn-Noranda which it hopes to put back into production within 18-24 months (considerable infrastructure is already in place as we saw during our recent site visit)…drilling continues at both Elder and the adjacent Tagami Property where there is strong potential for a significant discovery…Abcourt completed a $4 million financing at the end of December…with 110 million shares outstanding, its market cap currently sits at just $22 million…continued drilling success and even higher prices for Gold, silver and zinc would be exciting developments for this stock which has a history of major moves…from mid-2005 to early 2006, Abcourt rocketed from 15 cents to nearly $1.40…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V)

It’s definitely turnaround time for Currie Rose which bottomed out at 15 cents in late January…after being in decline for six weeks, the stock’s 20-day moving average (SMA) has finally reversed to the upside…this is one of several important clues that the stock’s recent woes are now over and a new uptrend is underway…the CMF has been showing steadily increasing buying pressure throughout the month…RSI and Stochastics indicators are looking positive as well…Currie Rose was up half a penny for the week at 18.5 cents…the first major area of resistance will be in the low 20′s in the vicinity of the still-rising 100-day SMA…the company last came out with news January 25, announcing a joint-venture deal with Australian-based Liontown Resources for Currie’s Jubilee Reef Gold Project in Tanzania…CUI’s focus is on the Sekenke and Mabale Hills Projects, so finding a partner for Jubilee Reef made sense…the deal commits Liontown to at least 5,000 metres of drilling at the property this year which will give Currie Rose a minimum of 23,000 metres of drilling at all of its properties in 2011…an 8,000 metre program is now underway at its Scadding Gold Property near Sudbury which was optioned to Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V)…this property will be getting some major exposure with a segment on “Today in America” which is expected to air nationally on the FOX Business Network and regionally on CNN Headline News…while Currie Rose has had its market cap shaved considerably, from a high of nearly $40 million to the current $16 million, what hasn’t changed is the quality of this company’s project portfolio which remains as high as it ever was in our view…

Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V)

Richfield enjoyed a powerful week, climbing 54 cents to close Friday at $5.40, very close to its all-time high of $5.49 February 8…on that day the company released the final seven holes from its 2010 drilling at Blackwater (a new program is now underway)… a one-kilometre mineralized zone from east to west has now been defined…the latest results included 206 metres grading 1.56 g/t Au in BW-114 and 39 metres of 2.74 g/t Au in BW-112 which was collared 100 metres east of known mineralization…the company will be drilling at least 30,000 more metres this year and is also working on a Preliminary Economic Assessment which should be completed by the fall…given the state of the Gold market and the likelihood of continued exploration success at Blackwater, we don’t believe the stock will be hanging around current levels for very long…we were very pleased to see that Richfield got a well-deserved buy recommendation recently from GMP Securities which has initiated coverage on RVC with a 12-month target price of $11.10 per share…BMR introduced Richfield to its readers in December, 2009, when the stock was trading at only $1.20…GMP sees the potential for at least five million ounces of Gold at Blackwater which is located in central British Columbia…the primary trend remains up with Richfield and there’s every reason to expect more excellent drill results throughout 2011…we believe the company’s ultimate objective is to find a buyer who can put this deposit into production…if good drill results continue as we expect they will, we’re confident that objective will be met and the takeover price could be much higher than the company’s current market cap of approximately $235 million…

3 Comments

  1. I noticed on Stockwatch that GBB’s latest news release reads “Granada results fail to please”. The original title was different but they changed it relatively fast once the sell-off started. I find this to be a questionable act on Stockwatch’ part. It certainly didn’t help the SP and disguises the fact that the news was actually great…

    Comment by Thomas — February 21, 2011 @ 4:02 pm

  2. Hi Thomas, Stockwatch never ceases to amaze me…it seems they look for ways to be negative…companies MUST be very careful in how they disseminate news…one miss-step can be very costly as Gold Bullion found out last week…you simply don’t release assay results on that many holes without an effective strategy to deal with the market…because of the way in which the results were released (and explained to some degree), with no immediate follow-up plan for the market, you saw a huge dumping of stock and a panic of sorts…the impression, therefore, was that “the results failed to please”…that was totally unnecessary because the results should have pleased the market if everything was handled more effectively…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — February 21, 2011 @ 4:15 pm

  3. Hi Jon,

    So it sounds like this is a great time to buy GBB, do you see it going back to it’s previous level in the near future?

    Thanks,
    Rob

    Comment by Rob — February 21, 2011 @ 8:43 pm

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