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May 22, 2011

The Week In Review And A Look Ahead: Part 2 of 3

Gold Bullion Development (GBB, TSX-V)

Gold Bullion once again successfully tested support at its March low of 35 cents last week and closed Friday at 40 cents for a weekly gain of 3.5 cents…it seems GBB has found a bottom in the mid-30’s and could be in the very early stages of a major reversal, which is supported by our updated outlook for the CDNXGBB’s 50-day moving average (SMA) has flattened out after being in sharp decline since the stock fell out of bed one morning in mid-February…falling out of bed is better than falling off a cliff, however, as it’s easier to recover from the former…fundamentals are clearly supporting Gold Bullion at the moment…the initial 43-101 resource estimate for the LONG Bars Zone of the Granada Gold Property is expected sometime during the third quarter…anticipation will start to kick in prior to its release…the company’s current market cap of $63 million puts a value of just $20 an ounce on Gold in the ground at Granada if one were to assume the 43-101 will outline approximately 3 million ounces in the measured, indicated and inferred categories…that’s just a hypothetical number on our part at the moment but whatever number GENIVAR comes up with, we believe it should exceed the 2.4 to 2.6 million ounce conceptual figure that Gold Bullion gave in April of last year…based on all the drill results to date, this appears to be shaping up as a half-gram deposit with a higher grade starter pit and massive volume…it’s all about volume at Granada which is why the drills have to keep turning and why it’s disappointing the number of rigs in the LONG Bars Zone (2) hasn’t increased in a year…the first sign of a sustained recovery in the stock will come when the still-declining 50-day SMA, which is currently providing resistance in the low-to-mid-40′s, reverses to the upside…Gold Bullion released fresh drill results from Granada May 12 which were consistent with previous numbers…hole #173 was the star of the batch of 25 holes…it provided additional evidence that the north and northeastern parts of the Eastern Extension are highly intriguing…#173 cut 80 metres grading 1.36 g/t Au within a total intersection of 363 metres of 0.35 g/t Au…a 1-metre section of high-grade (89.83 g/t Au) was hit near the bottom of the hole below 300 metres…#173 was collared approximately 115 metres northeast of #55 and 100 metres east-northeast of #108, two stellar holes released last fall…this is critical – assays are still pending on 9 holes (165, 168, 178, 183, 241, 243, 246, 254, and 257) north of #55 drilled over an east-west distance of about 250 metres and a north-south distance of 200 metres…results from those nine holes will go a long way toward confirming just how prospective these parts of the Eastern Extension are…#241 is the most northerly of those holes…meanwhile, hole #200 in the southeast portion of the Eastern Extension (northeast of discovery hole #86) returned an impressive interval of 48.50 metres grading 1.68 g/t Au within a total intersection of 210.5 metres of 0.44 g/t Au…results from the second most northerly hole drilled north of the Preliminary Block Model suggest more drilling is definitely required in that area…hole #31 hit a modest 18.5 meters grading 0.64 g/t Au close to surface (36 to 54.15 metres) and another 28 metres grading 0.59 g/t Au between a depth of 125 to 153 metres…where’s there’s smoke, there’s fire, and our theory is that there could be a significant trail of mineralization running north of the Preliminary Block Model and connecting with what has been discovered over the northern part of the Eastern Extension…six more holes (213, 214, 215, 217, 221 and 224 and 224) from the southwest portion of the Preliminary Block Model returned mixed results – we were hoping to see a couple of exciting holes from that area but that hasn’t materialized yet…overall, Gold Bullion continues to hit long intersections of lower grade mineralization over a wide area at Granada…this is a massive project with much more drilling required but the multi-million ounce model that Frank Basa has in mind remains intact…the 43-101 resource estimate should reassure investors and give this play more focus and a big lift…drilling is also underway now in LONG Bars Zone 2 near the old Aukeko Property (2 kilometres east of Phase 1 discovery hole #17) and if Gold Bullion is able to connect these two zones, look out…GENIVAR’s Nicole Rioux, the head geologist for Granada, is genuinely excited about the Aukeko area and she is normally quite conservative in sizing things up…a couple of excellent results from this area could really ignite this play and based on all the historical information we have reviewed from “LONG Bars Zone 2″, the chances of a “hit” in this area have to be considered very good…

Cadillac Mining (CQX, TSX-V)

We are extremely frustrated at the moment with Cadillac, so we’re wondering if it’s best to be patient and ride this one out or if indeed it’s time to cut our losses short…for the moment we’ve decided on the former strategy…we are going to be patient because the possibilities with CQX are still incredible especially considering the current market cap which is just $2.5 million…our frustration is justified…not often does a company get the kind of opportunity that Cadillac was handed (and still has)…CQX holds a 100% interest in a very strategic piece of property that adjoins Richmont Mines‘ (RIC, TSX) Wasamac deposit, 15 kilometres west of Rouyn-Noranda…the principal Gold structure hosting mineralization at Wasamac dips northerly onto the seven claims held by CadillacRichmont started drilling Wasamac in the spring of last year and steadily ramped up its drilling due to excellent results…in February of this year, Richmont reported a nearly five-fold increase in resources (from 285,000 to 1.4 million ounces) at Wasamac…as a result RIC has been one of the best performing Gold stocks on the TSX this year…throughout the past year since Richmont started drilling Wasamac, and in particular over the last five months, Cadillac management has completely failed its shareholders by doing essentially nothing (or the wrong things) to take advantage of Richmont’s success at Wasamac…BMR brought the Wasamac situation to the attention of its readers in December…investors got excited about the story and the potential of Cadillac’s “Wasa” claims…the stock ran to 50 cents by early January and the market was clearly eager to see Cadillac pursue this project as quickly and vigorously as possible…in this business, it’s critical to “seize the moment” and take immediate advantage of opportunities like this when they present themselves…the company easily could have leveraged the Wasamac situation into a major financing anywhere between 25 to 40 cents (they began the year with only about $200,000 in the bank)…in order to take advantage of any opportunity, a company must be well-financed and Cadillac management absolutely dropped the ball during the first quarter of this year when they did have a chance to raise at least $1 million and failed to do so…we give the company credit for securing an excellent project (Goldstrike) in Utah on fabulous terms but several million dollars is going to be required to tackle Goldstrike in the right way…Cadillac has fallen from a high of 50 cents in early January to a yearly low of 10 cents last week…there is no excuse for that and management has only itself to blame…after talking about getting a drilling program going at Wasamac “in the near future” shortly after their mid-February AGM, Cadillac has reversed course and stated in a news release last Monday that it needs more information from Richmont’s work before drilling for down-plunge extensions of the Wasamac main, #1 and #2 zones…President and CEO Victor Erickson’s heart is with the Utah project, not with Wasamac…in retrospect, that has been demonstrated in many ways over the last six months…Erickson would have to admit that himself…the only solution, then, in our view, is for Cadillac to cut a deal with another company for exploration at Wasamac and the natural partner for that is Visible Gold Mines (VGD, TSX-V) which last December entered into a JV with CQX on its other Rouyn-Noranda area properties…VGD has all the money and expertise necessary to unlock the value of Cadillac’s Wasa claims…Cadillac could let others do the heavy lifting at Wasa and then focus its energies on developing the Goldstrike Project…

Abcourt Mines (ABI, TSX-V)

Abcourt closed up a penny last week to close at 13 cents…the stock, which now has 149 million shares outstanding for a market cap of $19.4 million, has fallen in half over the past two months…the decline has coincided with the closing of a financing (35 million units at 18 cents), a sharp drop in Silver, and overall CDNX weakness…strong technical support exists at 11 cents…a declining 50-day moving average (SMA) has been putting some pressure on the stock which still has rising 100, 200 and 300-day SMA’s above the current share price…the 100-day, however, is in imminent danger of reversing to the downside after advancing for more than eight months…ABI released more drill results April 26 from its Abcourt-Barvue Silver-Zinc Property near Val d’Or…the results from five additional holes suggest growing open pit reserves and resources…two zones continue to produce significant grades including 9.1 metres of 171.73 g/t Ag and 3.48% Zn in hole #20 (zone 1) and 7.3 metres grading 196.32 g/t Ag and 3.73% Zn in hole #19 (zone 1)…the 10,000 metre drill program continues…the last set of results from the company’s Elder-Tagami Gold Property near Rouyn-Noranda came out March 3…mineralization continues to expand to the west of the former underground Elder Mine which is now being dewatered as announced by the company last week…the Tagami area to the north, meanwhile, has untapped potential including some higher grades…the latest NI-43-101 resource estimate of 216,000 ounces was released in the summer of 2009…the possibility of Abcourt expanding that resource beyond 500,000 ounces certainly exists given the encouraging results to date (look what Richmont has done at Wasamac)…the heavy accumulation that began in Abcourt in December was no fluke in our view…this is a company with significant assets that could justify a substantially higher valuation…nearly 60 million shares of ABI changed hands on the CDNX in December and January – record volume for this stock, accompanied by a price jump from 14.5 cents…we’ve seen these type of volume surges before and they are always a very positive sign…Abcourt has been under significant accumulation and our best guess is that some savvy players like the assets in the ground…continued drilling success and higher prices for Gold, Silver and zinc would be exciting developments for this stock which has a history of major moves…from mid-2005 to early 2006, Abcourt rocketed from 15 cents to nearly $1.40…

Currie Rose Resources (CUI, TSX-V)

Currie Rose has held up extremely well over the past month given overall CDNX weakness…the stock was off half a penny last week at 16.5 cents but volume was light…the 50-day moving average (SMA) has flattened out and what we’re anticipating is a reversal to the upside in the 50-day in the very near future, quite possibly next week…the stock appears to be ready for a breakout but just needs some good news to trigger that…we are particularly excited about Currie Rose’s Sekenke Project in northwest Tanzania which we regard as the company’s #1 play as it holds major blue sky potential…Sekenke covers a lot of promising ground and runs in between and surrounds two former high grade Gold mines including Tanzania’s original producer…as often is the case, chances are that much was overlooked at and around the former mines which were in operation during the first half of the 20th century…Sekenke will likely be the first target of CUI’s upcoming drill program…while its Tanzanian properties are the market’s major focus, Currie Rose could also benefit over the coming weeks and months from continued good exploration news from Trueclaim Exploration (TRM, TSX-V) which is currently conducting an 8,000 metre drill program at the Scadding Gold Property near Sudbury…Trueclaim, which continues to release encouraging assay results, has earned a 51% interest in Scadding and can acquire a full 100% interest by completing a feasibility study, paying $2 million to Currie Rose, and giving Currie Rose a 3% net smelter royalty…CUI announced a joint-venture deal January 25 with Australian-based Liontown Resources for Currie’s Jubilee Reef Gold Project in Tanzania…CUI’s focus is on the Sekenke and Mabale Hills Projects, so finding a partner for Jubilee Reef made sense…the deal commits Liontown to at least 5,000 metres of drilling at the property this year which will give Currie Rose a minimum of 23,000 metres of drilling at all of its properties in 2011…while Currie Rose has had its market cap shaved considerably, from a high of nearly $40 million late last year to the current $15 million, what hasn’t changed is the quality of this company’s project portfolio which remains as high as it ever was in our view…Currie Rose has all the cash it needs ($2 million) to complete an initial major round of drilling (10,000 metres) this spring and summer in Tanzania, so there will not be any dilution of the stock at current levels as confirmed by President and CEO Harold Smith…

Richfield Ventures (RVC, TSX-V)

Richfield, moving of course in step with New Gold Inc. (NGD, TSX), was up 12 cents last week to close at $8.38, just a couple pennies below its rising 50-day moving average (SMA) which has provided  consistent support throughout RVC’s incredible bull run since last summer…on May 10, Richfield announced more positive drill results from its Blackwater Project in central British Columbia including 378 metres grading 1.09 g/t Au over the northern section which Silver Quest Resources (SQI, TSX-V) holds a 25% interest in…of course at the beginning of April, Richfield announced a plan of arrangement with New Gold for a takeover of Richfield (in NGD stock) valued at that point at $10.38 per RVC share or $550 million…the drop in New Gold’s share price has been a reflection of overall market weakness and the market responding to the upcoming share dilution required for the deal…there are, however,  enormous benefits down the road for NGD once Blackwater gets into production…we had been speculating on a potential buyout of Richfield for some time…the proposed deal is certainly a very positive fit for New Gold whose New Afton Project in the interior of British Columbia, not far from Blackwater, is on target to start production by the middle of next year…New Gold sees some obvious synergies between the two deposits…Richfield recently outlined approximately 4 million ounces of Gold in the indicated and inferred categories at Blackwater in a NI-43-101 resource estimate released March 2…the New Gold deal is expected to close next month (no competing offers for Richfield have yet been made)…New Gold recently released its first quarter results which showed continued solid growth, lower costs and earnings of six cents per share…the company expects to double its cash flow when production begins at New Afton next year…Richfield is up 598% since we introduced it to BMR readers in December, 2009, at $1.20…the Blackwater Gold District is still full of opportunity for investors and we encourage readers to check out the web site, www.BlackwaterGoldDistrict.com

7 Comments

  1. What is your opinion of Osisko buying 9.2% of GBB’s neighbour THG (Threegold Resources)I know they have a joint venture on another property, but it sounds like Osisko is very interested in THG’s Adanac property as well.

    Comment by Paul — May 22, 2011 @ 3:31 pm

  2. Bullish for THG……..gotta like it.

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 22, 2011 @ 3:42 pm

  3. Hey all,
    Love the info, I like Cui and Gbb. I think both have the potential to be short-mid term doubles.
    One stock I have been doing a tad bit of DD on is v.yoo.
    I believe in the short term, 2-3 weeks you’ll see a 4-6 bagger. Still cheap at .10.
    Just want to give the readers here a heads up. Gotta love making money.
    Call this spam if you will….. But I’ll say this, add YOO to your watch list before you bash me and give it 10 days…..
    You will kick yourself if you dontget in.

    God Bless

    ML

    Comment by Mike Lee — May 23, 2011 @ 7:01 am

  4. You need to update wording on ABI. This seem really outdated considering the current share price – “nearly 60 million shares of ABI changed hands on the CDNX in December and January – record volume for this stock, accompanied by a price jump from 14.5 cents”.

    Comment by Bruce — May 23, 2011 @ 10:46 am

  5. Thanks, Bruce….but the record volume we saw come into ABI in December/January is still significant, despite the fact the stock is now slightly lower….at some point in the future, we may see just how significant that accumulation was in terms of an early sign of a long-term breakout…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 23, 2011 @ 12:43 pm

  6. Hi Jon
    With the last batches of drilling results that GBB has put out,there has been discussion about
    the grade of 0.5 gm/tonne as one scenario. I am finding it inconsistent with my understanding of the deposit.
    We are still only drilling for structure apparently, and it has been part of my understanding that the mill grade
    will excede the drill grade due to the nugget effect. Do you think the 43-101 will be able
    to take the bulk sample into consideration, or are they limited to using only the drill grades in the 43-101?
    The answer to this question would have a large influence on the resource estimate.
    Thanks as always, for your info…..

    Comment by Bob — May 23, 2011 @ 1:14 pm

  7. Bob, you bring up some good points which highlights an important issue, one we’ve mentioned repeatedly, which is that there’s going to be a lot of work in terms of quantifying the grade at Granada given the nature of this deposit…this is an issue that will no doubt be raised in the 43-101…GENIVAR has a lot of historical information from Granada (hundreds of previous drill holes) plus of course the bulk sample from a few years ago that GBB did, plus the rock from the Eastern Extension that went through a metallurgical analysis last year at Gekko Systems in Australia, which they can use in preparation for the 43-101…in my opinion, I believe it’s critical that some RC or PQ drilling is done within the Block Model and the Eastern Extension in order to get a better handle on the grade and use that information of course for the upcoming 43-101…GENIVAR’s approach is conservative…they are cautious and conservative, which is a good thing in the sense that whatever number (total ounces, measured, indicated and inferred) they come up in the 43-101 you can take that to the bank and know that it’s a minimum starting point…the high-grade intercepts will also have to be cut to 30 g/t Au or so in accordance with 43-101 standards…it’ll be interesting to see how the numbers play out with different cut-off grades…I’m expecting a good overall number for ounces that the market will be comfortable with…it’ll be a starting point (expect an updated 43-101 sometime next year) with plenty of upside potential of course because there’s so much area still to drill…at some point they have to transition from drilling for structure as you mentioned to aggressively drilling for grade…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — May 23, 2011 @ 2:23 pm

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