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January 20, 2012

BMR Morning Market Musings…

Gold has pulled back slightly this morning but is off its lows…as of 6:20 am Pacific, the yellow metal is down $4 an ounce at $1,653…Silver, which is looking strong, is off just 2 cents at $30.62…Copper has pulled back 4 pennies to $3.76…Crude Oil is 74 cents lower at $99.65 while the U.S. Dollar Index is up a tenth of a point at 80.22…

Commodities are off to a strong start in 2012 which has surprised many people including analysts such as TD Securities’ Bart Malek (vice president and director, head of commodity strategy rates and foreign exchange research) who in a media interview yesterday stated commodity and financial markets are “defying gravity”…charts are very telling, however, and John’s examination of the important CRB Index is telling us that commodities really do appear to be “turning the corner”…this, of course, is bullish for the Venture Exchange which has also been sending technical signals that its slide since March of last year is quite likely over…below is a very interesting and revealing 21-month weekly chart for the CRB Index…

China’s Shanghai Composite Index, which we have been tracking recently, has enjoyed another good week as it closed up 23 points today to close above the important 2,300 level at 2,319…that’s a two-month high…Copper’s strength recently (reflected in the CRB Index) is also extremely encouraging…the bottom line is that there are numerous positive indicators in the markets right now (commodities and stock indexes) which strongly suggest that what we’re seeing at the moment is not just another rally that’s going to fizzle out…yes, we could have a minor correction in the very near future to test support but that should be considered a normal technical development and a major buying opportunity should it occur…a decisive reversal in the Venture Exchange’s 50-day moving average (SMA) will confirm that an important upside move is in the works, and that could occur by early February…in the meantime, look for the 10 and 20-day SMA’s to provide support…

We have focused a lot on Silver this week, and this morning we have another Silver play that is worth our readers’ due diligence…the technicals for Arian Silver (AGQ, TSX-V) have improved considerably with the stock closing yesterday at 27.5 cents, slightly above strong support at its 1,000-day moving average (SMA)…Arian is focusing its exploration efforts on one of the richest known silver-bearing districts in the world – the Zacatecas State of Mexico…at its flagship San Jose Project, the company has commenced small-scale production using contract mining and toll milling to generate cash flow and to investigate the optimal processing route for an expanded operation in due course…Arian is also working on expanding and upgrading the current 43-101 resource at San Jose (indicated resources are 30 million ounces of Silver, 70 million pounds of lead and 127 million pounds of zinc, while inferred resources are 58 million ounces of Silver, 140 million pounds of lead and 291 million pounds of zinc)…Arian, which has 301 million shares outstanding for a current market cap of $83 million, traded as high as 89 cents last year…it’s an excellent candidate for a strong rebound if the San Jose Project regains momentum and Silver enjoys a solid year as we expect it will…below is John’s chart for AGQ

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in AGQ.

On a non-resource note, the second-most active trader on the Venture Exchange yesterday was Sprylogics International Corp. (SPY, TSX-V) which develops advanced search, analysis, and information display tools and services for the Internet…one of our astute readers brought this one to our attention a couple of days ago…we know nothing regarding the fundamentals of the company or the people involved, but SPY is certainly worthy of some due diligence given its bullish technical posture at the moment as John shows below…

Note: John, Jon and Terry do not hold positions in SPY.

Rainbow Resources (RBW, TSX-V) has just issued news with David Johnston, who headed up the privately-held Braveheart Resources which was acquired last fall by Rainbow, taking over as President of Rainbow…we’ll update the very bullish Rainbow situation tomorrow after reviewing the news in more detail or check for remarks in the comments section this morning…

32 Comments

  1. Hey, Why aren’t you guys writing about CJC anymore??

    Comment by Tony T — January 20, 2012 @ 6:44 am

  2. Our focus this week has been on other things and everyone is waiting for drill results from CJC – at that point more can be said…those results are apparently coming soon so hopefully next week we’ll be able to do an update…we continue to watch CJC very closely and like the story…John’s most recent chart a little while back revealed some potential short-term weakness which has occurred…

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 20, 2012 @ 6:55 am

  3. Jon,

    What’s up with VGD? There was supposed to have been a general meeting yesterday but not a peep. Have you been in contact with M. Dallaire lately?

    Comment by Wayne — January 20, 2012 @ 7:12 am

  4. Jon

    any ideas as to why SPA has fallen back

    Comment by john moynihan — January 20, 2012 @ 7:15 am

  5. Not surprising that it has – chart-related I suspect…..the latest chart John did on SPA showed a move down to 60 (strong support) was quite possible, which we’ve now seen…..good time to be a buyer IMHO….the project and the people involved are strong, so I have no concerns about SPA….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 20, 2012 @ 7:50 am

  6. I’m not sure, Dallaire has not been a good communicator over the last few months and we expressed frustration with this situation around the time they announced the flow-through financing….I believe he is supposed to be at the Cambridge show this weekend….may see him there and will try to get an update….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 20, 2012 @ 7:53 am

  7. Bought AGQ last week. I had a nice double with it last year and expect the same in the next few months. Lots of these stocks seem to have started a new up trend. Lets hope it lasts as we all need a break.

    Comment by Patrick — January 20, 2012 @ 8:17 am

  8. Jon – VGD & Cambridge show – VGD don’t have a booth do they?
    Wayne – I’ve had numerous communications with M. Dallaire and I have lost all faith in him – he used to communicate very well, at least on paper, but now he/VGD have failed in their obligation to provide shareholder value. No update prior to their AGM despite being promised a week before. I can only assume, even though an update is supposedly imminent, that there is no material change after all the drilling – hard to beleive but that’s what is effectively being communicated. Also, have dug up a poor relationship history between M. Dallaire and S. Inwentash. I would encourage you to contact M. Dallaire directly to answer your questions – I’ve never had a problem with him willing to communicate although he can be rather brash. 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 8:27 am

  9. @ BMR ;thanks for replying to my question.

    Comment by Tony T — January 20, 2012 @ 8:33 am

  10. Gentlemen (and ladies)…with regard to RBW’s NR this morning, just spoke with David Johnston (named President today) who has agreed to an interview this weekend at Vancouver show which we’ll likely be able to put together for posting Monday…he also said to check out the picture gallery on the RBW web site under the investors section for some interesting pics, so I did….I encourage everyone to look at the third picture in particular…it is an absolutely eye-popping 24 pound rock sample which is massive galena with what appears to be very high grade silver and lead….the rock is 24 pounds…..unbelievable…from the International Property…….I can’t stress enough how good this whole situation looks and I’m adding more RBW personally today….

    Comment by Jon - BMR — January 20, 2012 @ 8:38 am

  11. Visible Gold Mines Exploration Update
    ROUYN-NORANDA, QC, Jan. 20, 2012 /CNW Telbec/ – Visible Gold Mines Inc. (TSXV: VGD) (Frankfurt: 3V4) is pleased to provide an update on its exploration activities for 2011 in the Abitibi Greenstone Belt of northwest Québec.
    Highlights
    13,075 samples shipped to the lab, 2,282 samples remaining to be assayed, representing 17% of all samples
    $2.875M exploration budget for 2012
    $4.5M current working capital

    Joutel Project Option
    In March 2011, Visible Gold Mines entered into an Option Agreement with Agnico-Eagle under which Visible Gold Mines can acquire a 50% undivided interest in the Joutel property, comprised of one mining lease and 477 mining claims located 150 km north of Rouyn-Noranda, northwestern Québec (see March 31, 2011 Press Release).  The large land package includes the former Eagle Ouest and Telbel deposits which produced a combined 1.1 million ounces of gold at a grade of 6.0 g/t from 1974 to 1993.  Approximately 300,000 ounces of silver were also recovered at a grade of 1.8 g/t (reference: Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., 2011).  A 6,016-metre, ten-hole diamond drill program was recently completed.  A total of 2,482 samples (approximately 1.5 m of core per sample) have been sent to the laboratory and to date 59% (1,474 samples) have been assayed.  Two gold values (3.0 g/t and 6 g/t) have been returned from hole JO-11-3A.
    To acquire a 50% undivided interest in the Joutel property, Visible Gold Mines must incur $5 million in exploration expenditures on the property over a period of five years, which includes a firm commitment of $500,000 during the first year of the Option Agreement and $750,000 during the second year. A meeting will be held with Agnico-Eagle in the coming weeks and a phase 2 drilling program will be initiated on the Joutel property.
    Cadillac Option (Cadillac Break, Lucky Break, Wasa East and Wasa Creek projects)
    Visible Gold Mines is aggressively exploring a highly-prospective land package west of Rouyn-Noranda, Québec that it optioned in December 2010, comprising 7,423 hectares.  Most of the ground covers the Lucky Break Project which includes the promising Wasa Creek and Wasa East Properties in the immediate vicinity of Richmont Mines’ growing Wasamac deposit.  Numerous drilling targets have been identified and a 25-hole drilling program totaling 14,900 metres was completed recently over the four projects:
    Cadillac Break project:  A three-hole drilling program totalling 2,619 metres was completed in 2011. A total of 513 samples were received from the assay laboratory and no significant gold values have been returned.
    Lucky Break project:  A four-hole drilling program totalling 1,861 metres was completed by mid-December 2011.  A total of 558 samples were sent to the laboratory and 470 samples (84%) have been assayed at this time.  No significant gold values have been returned to date.
    Wasa East project:  A five-hole drilling program totalling 2,163 metres was completed by mid-December 2011.  A total of 675 samples were sent to the laboratory.  No samples have been assayed at this time.
    Wasa Creek project:  A 13-hole drilling program totalling 8,820 metres was completed by mid-October 2011.  A total of 4,564 samples were sent to the laboratory and no significant gold values have been returned to date, except the gold results announced on August 11, 2011 from hole LBWC-11-03.
    Assay Results – LBWC-11-03

    LBWC-11-03 
      From (m)
      To (m)
    Length (m)
    Grade (g/t Au)
     
    27.00
    28.00
    1.00
    16.37
     
    39.00
    40.50
    1.50
    1.24
     
    334.50
    336.00
    1.50
    19.73
     
    541.60
    558.00
    16.40
    0.92
    Including 
    541.60
    550.50
    8.90
    1.31
     
    586.50
    590.00
    3.50
    2.76
     
    643.50
    645.00
    1.50
    1.08
    A better geological understanding of the Wasa Creek Property is beginning to emerge.  Wasa Creek covers a 3.5-kilometre stretch of the prolific Cadillac Fault, spatially related to numerous large gold deposits from east of Val-d’Or to the famous Noranda mining camp to the former 11-million ounce Kerr Addison Mine in Virginiatown, Ontario.  Intense fracturing and displacement have been observed at Wasa Creek and it’s now believed that the Cadillac Fault runs in a northeast direction, as opposed to a straight east-west direction, under at least half of the property and then it bends to the east, creating a zone of major geological interest.  In addition, given intriguing thickness variations in younger sedimentary rock formations of the Cobalt Group that cover the Cadillac Fault, important north-south secondary faults are now interpreted to exist at Wasa Creek in areas north of the Cadillac Fault (this is believed to be significant). 
    Disson Project
    The property is comprised of 139 mining claims in Disson Township.  A seven-hole drilling program totalling 3,219 metres was completed by mid-December 2011.  A total of 1,773 samples were sent to the laboratory and 1262 samples  have been assayed at this time.  Although many 10 m to 20 m massive sulphide sections have been intersected, no significant gold values have been returned so far.
    Silidor Project
    Visible Gold Mines has been exploring the Silidor Property, four kilometres west of Rouyn-Noranda, Québec, since mid-2010 in an attempt to confirm extensions to the former Silidor Mine which was in production from 1990 to 1997.  A total of 33 holes, representing 8,712 metres, have been drilled to date.  All of the 2,348 samples have been assayed.
    The following table is a summary of the 2011 best intersections from the 33 holes

    Hole No
    width (m)
    Au (g/t)
    SI-10-01
    2.0
    2.63
    SI-11-05
    2.95
    2.11
    SI-11-05b
    1.65
    5.12
    1.50
    6.06
    SI-11-08
    1.65
    7.9
    SI-11-11
    1.10
    2.34
    SI-11-12
    0.95
    4.80
    SI-11-17
    1.50
    2.93
    SI-11-22
    1.8
    1.08
    SI-11-23
    2.3
    8.3
    SI-11-26
    2.0
    12.68
    SI-11-30
    12.3
    2.34
    SI-11-39
    2.0
    2.83

    A technical report is underway and should be able to provide us the potential of the project.
    Stadacona Property
    The property is located in the centre of Rouyn Township in northwestern Québec. Two past producers, the Horne Mine (59.3 Mt at 5.88 g/t Au, 2.2% Cu, 13 g/t Ag) and the Stadacona Gold Mine (466,282 ounces Au) ref. MRNFP, are situated approximately 1.0 km north and 400 m west, respectively, from the northern and western boundaries of the Stadacona East property.  In April 2011, the Corporation announced that the first NI 43-101 resource estimate for its Stadacona East property had outlined 163,800 inferred ounces of gold (980,000 tones grading 5.19 g/t Au).  Approximately 65,000 metres of drilling, representing 264 holes, has been done on the property to date.  A 17-hole exploration program was started during the last quarter on the east part of the property.  Two holes for a total of 732 metres were drilled in 2011 and no significant intersections of gold mineralization have been intersected at this time.  All of the 162 samples have been assayed. The continuity of the phase 1 drilling program will be initiated in the coming weeks.
    Qualified Person
    This news release was written by Martin Dallaire, P.Eng., President and Chief Executive Officer of Visible Gold Mines and approved by Robert Sansfaçon, P.Geo and Jeannot Theberge, P.Geo, in their capacity as qualified persons (QP) under NI 43-101.
    Quality Control
    Visible Gold Mines has implemented and adheres to a strict Quality Assurance/Quality Control for the present drill programs.  It includes one mineralized gold standard, one duplicate and one blank for each batch of samples.  Analyses are performed by ALS Chemex, Val-d’Or, Québec, or Techni-Lab, Ste-Germaine – Boulé, Québec, both accredited laboratories.
    About Visible Gold Mines
    Visible Gold Mines Inc. is a dynamic company aggressively searching for the next important gold deposit in northwestern Québec, an area consistently ranked as one of the world’s best jurisdictions for mining and exploration.  The Company has no debt and its current cash liquidity is approximately $3.5 million.
    Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of the release.
     
     

    Martin Dallaire, President and Chief Executive Officer
    Telephone: 819-762-0609, Fax: 819-762-0097
    E-mail: mdallaire@visiblegoldmines.com
    Website: 

    Source: Canada Newswire (Jan 20, 2012 11:56:00 EST)

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 9:15 am

  12. Thanks Jon and Andrew. Much appreciated.

    Comment by Wayne — January 20, 2012 @ 9:17 am

  13. Timber…………. watch out below with VGD. Down to 10 cents or lower i think now.

    Comment by Ed — January 20, 2012 @ 9:26 am

  14. BMR

    what do you think of the prospects going forward for VGD are now, seems that Rainbow resources is the new can’t miss play in your stable?

    thanks

    Comment by GREG — January 20, 2012 @ 9:54 am

  15. HMG (TSX-V) Hana Mining – appreciate any comments on this company operating in Botswana (copper and silver). Thanks 🙂

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 10:22 am

  16. 7.RBW @ 0.21$ think peoples like the 3th image of the gallery !

    My question is if the mineralisation is at surface with those kind of silver grade, at international for instance, why wasn’t mine before??

    Martin

    Comment by Martin — January 20, 2012 @ 10:44 am

  17. Good question, Martin – J’espère qu’il ya une bonne réponse!

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 10:50 am

  18. Andrew VGD c’est out là!

    J’en reviens pas!!

    Comment by Martin — January 20, 2012 @ 11:09 am

  19. Salut, Martin – VGD est de l’histoire pour moi. les résultats sont incroyables!

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 11:26 am

  20. Rachète-toi avec RBW Andrew, je croix que c’est juste le début!

    Comment by Martin — January 20, 2012 @ 11:34 am

  21. VGD – Good thing I wasn’t holding this stock. I don’t know how they managed to drill duds one after the other. I’ve never seen any explorer with this much incompentence. May be they might hit something later but that could be a fluke.

    Like I said before, they were holding back assay results.

    Comment by Bruce — January 20, 2012 @ 11:36 am

  22. I would have loved to be at the AMG yesterday, just to see what the message was!

    Comment by Martin — January 20, 2012 @ 11:45 am

  23. C’est mon plan, Martin – J’ai une position dans RBW. 🙂 Bonne chance

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 11:50 am

  24. J’en ai 70 000 part @ 16,

    Comment by Martin — January 20, 2012 @ 11:55 am

  25. 150000 at 0.20$ on the ask, will see if those will get taken?

    Comment by Martin — January 20, 2012 @ 12:05 pm

  26. You’re up 30% 🙂 If CEV works out I’ll put profit into RBW and if RBW closes the gap in low teens I’ll add more! Passe une bon fin de semaine!

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 12:12 pm

  27. Andrew

    Gmn habr ta zume ? R !

    Bert

    Comment by Bert — January 20, 2012 @ 4:30 pm

  28. Thanks, Bert – Zoom alright; those are good assays, I’ll contact Felipe!:)

    Comment by Andrew — January 20, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

  29. Andrew

    You’re one smart hombre.. I was waiting for you to ask me what i was trying to say.

    My answer would have been, in a joking manner that is — That’s Newfoundlandish & i
    hope you had as much trouble deciphering it, as i had in deciphering your french. Good
    night ! R !

    Comment by Bert — January 20, 2012 @ 6:19 pm

  30. Buddy the Horse

    A feller from Newfoundland drove his car into a ditch. Luckily, a local
    farmer came to help with his big strong horse named Buddy. He hitched
    Buddy up to the car and yelled, “Pull, Andrew, pull!” Buddy didn’t move.

    Then the farmer hollered, “Pull, John, pull!” Buddy didn’t respond.

    Once more the farmer commanded, “Pull, Jon, pull!” Nothing.

    Then the farmer nonchalantly said, “Pull, Buddy, pull!” And the horse
    easily dragged the car out of the ditch.

    The motorist was most appreciative and very curious. He asked the farmer
    why he called his horse by the wrong name three times.

    “Well… Buddy is blind and if he thought he was the only one pulling,
    he wouldn’t even try!”

    Comment by Bert — January 20, 2012 @ 6:42 pm

  31. VGD is a $9K disappointment. Martin Dallaire’s VGD will run out of cash before any adequate news emerges. I got hooked by the hype of a promoter of a CEO.

    Comment by Alexandre — January 20, 2012 @ 9:40 pm

  32. Finally GBB sorted out their crappy website. Are we going to start seeing some professionalism around there camp now?

    Comment by Hugh — January 21, 2012 @ 1:53 am

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